Would a PlayStation exclusive Persona 6 (vanilla) outsell Persona 5 (vanilla)?

[Phantom Thief]

Now this is an interesting question.

Let's assume for a minute Persona 6 will be PlayStation exclusive. This is specifically for the vanilla version - the Royal/Golden/FES equivalent may or may not launch on Switch (either simultaneously or exclusively). But let's assume for a second that the sixth generation of Persona titles launches as a PlayStation exclusive. This can include both PS4 and PS5. It cannot, however, include PC or Xbox.

Now the question is, does such a Persona 6 manage to outsell Persona 5? Keep the following facts in mind:

• Persona 5 in total sold 5 million globally
• Persona 5 in total sold 1.2 million in Japan
• Persona 5 vanilla sold 3.2 million units globally
• Persona 5 vanilla sold 800,000 units in Japan
• Persona 5 Royal sold 1.2 million globally
• Persona 5 Royal sold 400,000 units in Japan

The Royal numbers may seem a bit irrelevant to the question I am asking, but I have included them to include some insight into how a PlayStation exclusive Persona game did in the PS4's decline (of course, this isn't a perfect sample, since P5R is a full priced re-release of a game already available on that system, with no upgrade paths available for original owners).

In any case, keep all this in mind - does a PS exclusive Persona 6 vanilla outsell P5 vanilla? Why, or why not?

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I voted P6>P5 globally because its just a bigger brand now, but i voted P5>P6 in Japan because Playstations continued decline. It will be hard to get better critical reception than P5 which is one of the highest rated games of the generation.

 

[Phantom Thief]

I voted P6>P5 globally because its just a bigger brand now, but i voted P5>P6 in Japan because Playstations continued decline. It will be hard to get better critical reception than P5 which is one of the highest rated games of the generation.

P5 is actually one of the highest rated games of all time (if we talk about Royal), and generally speaking while I would agree that I can't see them continuing that streak, I think if there is one development team I would trust with being able to do that, it would be P-Studio (though who knows how Hashino/Meguro/Soejima's departure plays into that obv).

That aside, I do agree with you. Persona's increased profile (particularly with the ports later this year) will probably ensure its ROW performance is far better than P5's; in Japan though, I don't see it outselling P5, even though I do think it will be one of the stronger showings for PlayStation exclusive games in the region this gen (assuming it does end up being exclusive to begin with).

 

[ILikeFeet]

I voted outsell P5 outside of japan, but I question it. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a decline though

 

[Kirby]

P5 like reception is not a given.

People without a PS5 will wait for the improved multi-platform version. Japanese game fans might not have a PS5 because it's expensive, supply constrained, the exclusives are being ported on PC more and more and a distant third place for Japanese games after PC-Switch.

 

[Joseki]

.

 

[Malden]

I voted it wouldn't but it's too early so I am prepared to eat crow should the day arise.

 

[enpleinjour]

Persona is a growing brand and the vast majority of players are on Playstation. I expect a Persona 6 PS4/5 exclusive to do better than Persona 5

 

[Leica]

Kind of depends on reception too I feel. Persona 5 (both versions) did exceptionally well critically which probably helped people convince to jump in and try the franchise for the first time. That said I wouldn't be that surprised if it does outsell 5, assuming it's out in like 2024ish or later.

 

[Blue Monty]

Persona 5 sold (at least) 800k in Japan, without Japan help I don't think it can reach P5 peaks with a Playstation SKU alone because the increase in western sales alone would not make up for decline in Japan. If it was PS5/PC then I think P6>P5 easily

 

[WD-M01]

Persona 5 sold (at least) 800k in Japan, without Japan help I don't think it can reach P5 peaks with a Playstation SKU alone because the increase in western sales alone would not make up for decline in Japan. If it was PS5/PC then I think P6>P5 easily

This. Also we have to consider that P6 won't be likely made by the same people who made P5, and is possible that it goes in another direction that is not liked by the public. The only thing I consider guaranteed is that more people will be following the game announcement and launch, but when that happens we have to take into account the market situation.

P5 launched in a very favorable conditions, with PS4 with wide install base and weak competition. When P6 launches it’s likely for PS5 to have at least more competition and we still don’t know how the market will behave (specially in Japan) with the shortages. Or the lack of them.

P6 exclusive can only be good for Sony, and I don’t know to what extent. In Japan it’s likely to decline from the previous game and worlwide won’t be a wise choice to skip the other systems, more when we consider that recent multiplatform announcement. It’s more likely that people who doesn’t own a PS5 will wait until the game reach other systems.

 

[ILikeFeet]

What if P6 was an open world action rpg

Like Strikers but bigger

 

[The_Liquid_Laser]

I think P6 would sell less both globally and in Japan. The main problem is the "Playstation exclusive" criteria. At this point it's release date would be too far out to really be relevant on the PS4 (late 2023 or later). So that just leaves PS5, which is not going to be nearly as popular worldwide as the PS4. Playstation exclusive is really a big limiter for the Persona series at this point, and I wouldn't be surprised for P6 to launch simultaneously on XBox and maybe Nintendo systems too.

Also, there are these two questions. "How good is the game?" And, "how accessible is the game?" If PS6 is either considered better or more accessible than P5, then that could positively affect it's sales quite a bit, even if it is Playstation exclusive.

 

[DarkDetective]

The first question is whether Persona 6 would outsell Persona 5 in general, with or without platform restrictions. Persona 5 received an incredible amount of hype, which caused huge sales numbers. From the looks of it, this isn't a flash in the pan, but has instead resulted in sustainable growth of the IP, since Persona 5 Royal and Persona 5 Strikers have both become million-sellers as well. To me, this suggests that there's a big fan base that is ready to show up again whenever a new product launches. We don't know how many people bought Persona 5 to try the series, influenced by the huge internet hype around the game, and then didn't like it. The fact that Persona 5 Royal sold 1.8M+ units after Persona 5 vanilla sold 3.2M+ units is promising. I think the group of "try but didn't like it" is small enough to be fully replaced by a new group of try-ers next time.

So then the second part of the question comes into play: if Persona 6 in general has the capacity to hit 3.2M+ sales, would it also be able to hit that number solely on PlayStation? The mainline Persona 5 games (vanilla and Royal) are both PlayStation exclusive. The current sales result is fully achieved on PS only. Worldwide, the brand is strong enough to maintain itself. This means that I expect that the Persona 5 fanbase is there and will be there if the new game releases. In Japan, of course the situation is a bit different. However, PlayStation's strongest audience segment in Japan (18-35 y/o males) is exactly the audience that is also Persona's strongest. Whether or not Persona 6 would be a system-seller is open for debate, but I believe it would certainly convince some people to buy a new console.

So all in all, I'd say that Persona 6 will be able to have stable sales on PlayStation only, compared to Persona 5, both worldwide and in Japan. Of course that doesn't mean that the PlayStation SKU of Persona 6 will outsell Persona 5 vanilla if Persona 6 is a multiplatform release. I would argue that a portion of players would have bought the game on PlayStation if it wasn't available on their preferred platform.

 

[Simar]

I think Persona 5 is popular enough to make a P6 even more successful but that also depends on the design language of the sequel.
Looking at the UI of P3-5 they like to change basically everything but to me P5 looks far more appealing than any other Persona/SMT game.

It would also help if they would change the way they handle DLCs/expansions. I don't want to beat a 100 hours game and feel like I haven't "really" finished the game because a few years later the golden/royal version with 110 hours of content releases.

 

[Lord Azrael]

Yeah regardless of what you think on the global front, no way can P6 match its predecessor in Japan. Even if it wasn't PS5 exclusive