Will Soul Hackers 2 sell more than Shin Megami Tensei V?

[Flightlessfancies]

Its a big game for Atlus and the people headlining this game, they are trying to establish SH as another pillar in their repertoire in addition to SMT and Persona. Marketing efforts will increase the closer we get to the release. I dont think they would target all these plattforms for a niche game with low sales expectations.

Will it work out ? Who knows but based on what the Producers were saying in the interview this is seen as a big Atlus Project and have been in development for years. Its only the 4th Atlus internal developed HD JRPG, after Persona 5, TMS and SMT V - the first multiplattform one that is releasing Day 1 on PC as well.

Oh I know it's a big deal for Atlus, still though, something like Tales of Arise hasn't even hit 2 million yet on all platforms (since we didn't get the Kisara/Dohalim art they said we would when it did). So even though Soul Hackers looks like a big HD project for Atlus, it's nowhere in the wheelhouse of what I would consider Arise and so I just can't see it going much further than 1 - 1.5 million in sales (which is where Strikers is at), which I hope is what Atlus is expecting but I expect SMT V to crawl past 1.5 lifetime.

 

[Phantom Thief]

Yeah, that's the other thing, if Tales of Arise didn't hit 2 million yet, I think that gives us an indication of the limits to SH2's potential sales performance

 

[AruanaRiva]

With the investment that Atlus did on so many platform and them pushing the game on releases ww by themselves. Not doing SMTV number would be disappointment.

 

[Blue Monty]

Yeah, that's the other thing, if Tales of Arise didn't hit 2 million yet, I think that gives us an indication of the limits to SH2's potential sales performance

Tales of is a bigger IP than Soul Hackers + being from the makers of Persona. I think the limits are a bit lower than Tales of Arise ,and this is without taking into account that SH2 will probably not get the same marketing push Tales of Arise got just due to Bandai being bigger than Atlus/Sega and Tales Of being their big JRPG franchise . Only way I see SH2 doing Tales of Arise numbers is if it's as critically acclaimed as Persona 5 was when it released.

 

[BTB123]

I don't see Soul Hackers 2 ever reaching the 1M mark. SMT V should end up over 1M.

 

[J-Cat]

 

[AruanaRiva]

Still sees SH2 to beat smtv. It has more platform and atlus is serious on making SH as their next pillar IP.

 

[skulkidcachi90]

Still sees SH2 to beat smtv. It has more platform and atlus is serious on making SH as their next pillar IP.

By avoiding switch?, The console with the fastest and best selling SMT release ever?.
That sound like not a great plan.

 

[AruanaRiva]

By avoiding switch?, The console with the fastest and best selling SMT release ever?.
That sound like not a great plan.

Well. For me it is simple, if scarlet nexus can hit 1m. I dont see SH2 missing that mark.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Well. For me it is simple, if scarlet nexus can hit 1m. I dont see SH2 missing that mark.

Honestly I can. It doesn't feel as high a watermark when SN has gotten steeper discounts than SMT

 

[BassForever]

Well. For me it is simple, if scarlet nexus can hit 1m. I dont see SH2 missing that mark.

SN also got a bigger marketing push including an anime to try and make it into the next big thing, hence people on this site trying to argue it "underperformed" by only hitting 1 million sold. SH2 doesn't feel like it's getting the same level of marketing, and it seems like Atlus is banking on it getting some rub off effect from Persona to help carry it. Could it sell 1 million copies within a year the same way SMT5, SN, and BD2 all did? Probably, though I don't think the comparison will really be that interesting to look at.

 

[Leica]

SH2's marketing is already pretty weird and seems to be solely targeting Japan right now. Similar to SMTV but you'd think they'd focus on the West a little bit more with the platforms they've chosen, I guess they will later but still.

 

[Phantom Thief]

On some level I think Atlus is counting on SH2 doing well without much active marketing support from them, because that worked for P5, P5S, P5R, 13S, and SMTV. However, I feel that’s short sighted:

• Persona 5 benefitted from very literally being one of the highest rated games of all time and insane word of mouth that compensated for a lack of a concerted global marketing push (plus it being exclusive meant it enjoyed a higher profile due to some platform holder marketing as well)
• P5R and P5S both benefitted from the extreme cachet and brand value of P5 (and Royal also benefitted from reviews even more positive than P5’s had been)
• SMTV saw an incredibly concentrated global marketing push given to it by Nintendo, which supplemented Atlus’ own marketing efforts for that game (to Atlus’ credit, they marketed this one pretty extensively too, though mostly in Japan)
• 13 Sentinels is probably the game we should look to as a probable point of comparison. That was a game that got no marketing from Atlus OR Sony (though it was at the time an exclusive), and while it reviewed well, the reviews weren’t Persona tier either. 13S still ended up overperforming in the long run owing to overwhelmingly positive word of mouth

Now the thing is, I feel like each of those games had extremely specific and unique circumstances that allowed them to overcome concerted global marketing from Atlus’ end. I don’t think those circumstances apply to SH2 as it is right now.

Now of course the game could end up being fantastic and generate great word of mouth that pushes sales ala 13S anyway; it could end up being a 90+ game (which would also push sales); a late Switch port could boost sales some as well. However, right now, assuming SH2 ends up being a mid-80s MC title with the current level of marketing, its sales prospects appear more muted than they need to be. Scarlet Nexus and Tales of Arise may both have managed to do well for themselves in spite of similar broader reception, but they a) actually had far more marketing pushing them (from Namco AND Xbox), and b) came out in a relatively empty release window (and this is important because this means each new release got more attention than it otherwise would in that period). I’m not sure either of those applies to SH2 either.

In the long run I sincerely hope it does well, it looks great and I wish Atlus nothing but success. But how it’s being handled all around right now feels… odd, particularly given the stated ambitions to make the IP an ongoing tent pole.

 

[Person]

If it’s a Game Pass game (and I suspect it is) then it starts with a big check from Microsoft right away, and a guaranteed base of players to talk about the game and then it’s just a matter of the game’s quality at that point.

 

[Phantom Thief]

If it’s a Game Pass game (and I suspect it is)

I don't see this happening at launch. 6-12 months later? Sure. But late Game Pass releases aren't enough to boost a game's sales.

 

[Blue Monty]

I don't see this happening at launch. 6-12 months later? Sure. But late Game Pass releases aren't enough to boost a game's sales.

Sega is the only big company (other than Xbox owned studios) that does day 1 GP releases (Yakuza 7 and Total War:W3) , a day 1 GP deal is not off the table in this case and would explain the Windows store logo.

 

[Phantom Thief]

Sega is the only big company (other than Xbox owned studios) that does day 1 GP releases (Yakuza 7 and Total War:W3) , a day 1 GP deal is not off the table in this case and would explain the Windows store logo.

Yakuza 7 was not a day one GP release, it launched over half a year later on Game Pass.

 

[Blue Monty]

Yakuza 7 was not a day one GP release, it launched over half a year later on Game Pass.

I thought all these time it was a day 1 GP release due to the marketing Microsoft did back then mb.

Still, there have been other Sega day 1 games even if they are not as big: Two Point Campus and Humankind. And the fact that they were okay with Total War: W3 to be a GP day 1 game when it’s probably their 2nd biggest release of the year means quite a lot about the value Sega sees in Gamepass even if you could argue that it’s worth more in TW case to get players which means more possible DLC buyers compared to SH2 being a lot less attractive to buy DLC for.

 

[ktpoison]

I thought all these time it was a day 1 GP release due to the marketing Microsoft did back then mb.

Still, there have been other Sega day 1 games even if they are not as big: Two Point Campus and Humankind. And the fact that they were okay with Total War: W3 to be a GP day 1 game when it’s probably their 2nd biggest release of the year means quite a lot about the value Sega sees in Gamepass even if you could argue that it’s worth more in TW case to get players which means more possible DLC buyers compared to SH2 being a lot less attractive to buy DLC for.

Yakuza 7 was a Xbox Next-Gen Timed Exclusive on West, thus the help with the marketing.

All games you used as examples are games from Sega Europe, I believe the ones that handle Atlus games are part of another division of the company (Sega Corporation). Sega Europe once even took an Epic Games Store deal, giving A Total War Saga: TROY for free to all users during the first 24 hours (+ a 1 year exclusivity deal), they seem to be a lot more inclined to take those deals than other divisions of Sega.

 

[Phantom Thief]

I thought all these time it was a day 1 GP release due to the marketing Microsoft did back then mb.

Still, there have been other Sega day 1 games even if they are not as big: Two Point Campus and Humankind. And the fact that they were okay with Total War: W3 to be a GP day 1 game when it’s probably their 2nd biggest release of the year means quite a lot about the value Sega sees in Gamepass even if you could argue that it’s worth more in TW case to get players which means more possible DLC buyers compared to SH2 being a lot less attractive to buy DLC for.

Surely you see the common point in the games you named. Those are all Sega of Europe games, and I am sure we will see many more of them coming to GP day one.

However, Sega Japan has never done that, and Atlus, who are one further step removed from Sega Japan (already removed from Sega Europe), not only jumping on to a totally new subscription service, but also jumping on it day one, while also simultaneously making their debut on an entirely new platform for the first time in a decade... yeah, that's not happening. No Sega Japan game has ever once done that. Atlus is not going to be publishing the first Sega (Japan) game to get a day one GP release.

 

[foxuzamaki]

Not likely, it doesn't have the hype SMT5 got and no switch version to make up the difference

 

[AruanaRiva]

Not likely, it doesn't have the hype SMT5 got and no switch version to make up the difference

Pc and heavy price cut can be the wild card.

 

[saintsflow20]

I had a thought just now. This doesn't feel like a game that's out in 4 months, it feels like something a year + away. This is because marketing is non-existent. By this point I'm pretty sure SMT V had a decent Direct presence. Namely the E3 direct and Treehouse demo. All SH2 has is daily demon videos again and only like 10k people watch them.

Interested to see if it appears at any of the "fake E3" showcases this summer.

 

[Pooroomoo]

I had a thought just now. This doesn't feel like a game that's out in 4 months, it feels like something a year + away. This is because marketing is non-existent. By this point I'm pretty sure SMT V had a decent Direct presence. Namely the E3 direct and Treehouse demo. All SH2 has is daily demon videos again and only like 10k people watch them.

Interested to see if it appears at any of the "fake E3" showcases this summer.

How many views did the daily demon videos for SMTV get?

 

[ktpoison]

How many views did the daily demon videos for SMTV get?

Currently, SMT5 least popular one is at 34k. SH2 most popular one is at 45k. I would give extra points to SH2 though, since considerably big media outlets (Gematsu, Nintendo everything) that made articles for all Daily Demon videos of SMT5, are not doing the same for SH2.

The second trailer of SH2, although available with captions on Atlus Japan channel, is yet to be uploaded on Atlus West channel. It seems they are too busy uploading... Persona openings...

 

[ILikeFeet]

Pc and heavy price cut can be the wild card.

Sega and million seller at $20. Name a more iconic duo

 

[Leica]

I had a thought just now. This doesn't feel like a game that's out in 4 months, it feels like something a year + away. This is because marketing is non-existent. By this point I'm pretty sure SMT V had a decent Direct presence. Namely the E3 direct and Treehouse demo. All SH2 has is daily demon videos again and only like 10k people watch them.

Interested to see if it appears at any of the "fake E3" showcases this summer.

It took forever for Western marketing to ramp up for SMTV too, though the fact the second PV for SH2 hasn't been released in English or with official subs yet is really weird.

 

[ILikeFeet]

It took forever for Western marketing to ramp up for SMTV too, though the fact the second PV for SH2 hasn't been released in English or with official subs yet is really weird.

The second trailer does have official subs in many languages.

On the JP channel. I don't know why either

 

[Phantom Thief]

Important to note that Atlus West has been doing some heavy marketing for the Switch release of 13S. Multiple new trailers, daily art drops, promotional stuff like recipes from the game, etc.; given Atlus’ general pattern of only ever really focusing on the most immediate upcoming games for the marketing at a time, it’s not that unreasonable to assume we’ll see SH2 marketing ramp up now that 13S is out. But still if that’s the case to hold back the marketing of what you’re hoping becomes the next tentpole brand for your company, for a belated rerelease of a niche (albeit beloved) two year old game strikes me as… odd.

 

[Pancracio17]

Soul Hackers 2 feels like it has more appeal than SMTV. Assuming the PC port doesn't suck, and marketing ramps up, I can see it selling more lifetime.

 

[Kmds]

I'm sure it'll do fine enough if 13S done well. However, outselling SMT V is a pipedream in the West. Even in Japan it's unlikely.

Atlus has to try their hardest for it to do good numbers in Europe cos without it there's legit 0 chance as SMT V was a major European JRPG hit. Something a lot of people take for granted.

 

[Sulley]

Soul Hackers 2 feels like it has more appeal than SMTV. Assuming the PC port doesn't suck, and marketing ramps up, I can see it selling more lifetime.

Yeah, as someone who got into Atlus games and JRPGs with Persona 5 Royal, I'm much more interested in Soul Hackers 2 than I ever was for SMTV. I wonder if that sentiment is common and will transfer over?

 

[The_Liquid_Laser]

1) SMT V will sell more.

2) If they want to make a game like SH2 for PS5, X|S, and PC, then I don't see why they don't develop it for the Switch too. I look at this art style and I just don't see the Switch's hardware holding a game like this back at all. It's not FF7 Remake. I totally get why FF7 Remake, or any game with graphics like that, would be too much of a hassle to port to Switch (even if it weren't a Playstation exclusive). But these cartoony looking games like SH2...I just don't get it. I can't think of any good reason why it shouldn't be on Switch also.

 

[Pooroomoo]

I'm sure it'll do fine enough if 13S done well. However, outselling SMT V is a pipedream in the West. Even in Japan it's unlikely.

Atlus has to try their hardest for it to do good numbers in Europe cos without it there's legit 0 chance as SMT V was a major European JRPG hit. Something a lot of people take for granted.

But wouldn't you have said all of the above for Persona 5 before it came out?

 

[Blue Monty]

But wouldn't you have said all of the above for Persona 5 before it came out?

Will this game review with a 90+ score , have the best WoM a JRPG has had during the last decade, be part of a series with a previous dedicated following (Persona 4 Golden was a small hit even being on the Vita) and get marketing push by a company as big as Sony? I don’t think it will be able to do all these things (some are impossible already even if it’s not the game fault).

WW day 1 release and being on PC+Xbox will help a lot but that’s still not enough to even come close to such favorable situation Persona 5 had. In Europe SMT V outsold Tales of Arise (at least in launch) it was no-small game for european standards . It’s hard to imagine SH2 doing the same without Nintendo backing where it will be able to beat SMT V it’s in America and that’s probably what will decide if SH2 or SMT V sells more.

 

[gibordep]

I voted soul hackers 2, but is because all the posters that are worry of atlus missing opportunity/revenues. Sorry but all the posts whining that the game isn't on Switch had that effect on me. For me all third party should be everywhere, if possible, but the conspiracy /revenge theories are exaggerated

But in the end I think SMTV will sell more, Persona is a spin-off of this series. SMT is a established series. Soul hackers 2, is almost a new IP, the other entry has many years.
If had a Switch I would buy SMTV over Soul Hackers 2, as I have a Xbox (and now I don't have Persona) I will have Soul hackers under the radar, to see if that can fill Persona void. This game needs more promotion or will pass under the radar.

 

[Aostia82]

I think that releasing on so many platforms will help Soul Hackers 2 in getting higher LT sales over SMT V.
That said, I also think that a later port to Switch will boost it even higher, considering how big and receptive to this kind of product the Switch userbase is

SMTV surpassed 1 million and will probably crawl to something like 1.2/1.3 LT sales (Switch only)
I think that Soul Hackers 2 can surpass 1.5 million LT sales BEFORE a possible Switch port (I'm not port begging, I'm simply taking into account the OP options)

If, for example, we think that SMTV can come to PC, I see it surpassing 1.5 millions LT sales

 

[Vergus]

I voted soul hackers 2, but is because all the posters that are worry of atlus missing opportunity/revenues. Sorry but all the posts whining that the game isn't on Switch had that effect on me. For me all third party should be everywhere, if possible, but the conspiracy /revenge theories are exaggerated

But in the end I think SMTV will sell more, Persona is a spin-off of this series. SMT is a established series. Soul hackers 2, is almost a new IP, the other entry has many years.
If had a Switch I would buy SMTV over Soul Hackers 2, as I have a Xbox (and now I don't have Persona) I will have Soul hackers under the radar, to see if that can fill Persona void. This game needs more promotion or will pass under the radar.

Funnily enough, the problem is reverse outside of SH2. You can see rampant port-begging for Switch games nowadays. Even the recent news of SMTV selling a million had tons of port-begging posts outside of IB with many people whining about "crappy hardware" (a sentiment you can see in the recent MC thread too). Too many people use the "crappy hardware" as an excuse to justify why third-party Switch exclusives should be ported elsewhere AND why any future games should skip the Switch platform. The double standard is so insufferable that I feel the opposite of you. At least the sales argument had some basis, but the hardware argument for why games should or should not skip other platforms is utter bullshit because it's based on personal preferences.

It felt so weird that people think that better hardware justifies a port more than making money. Like, people think it's a form of justice. To them, it makes more sense to port a game to a 4k platform even if it'll only sell 10 copies versus downporting a game to a platform that'll sell 1 million copies. All the whining about the Switch and how it's "crap" made me avoid a lot of posts on Switch exclusives nowadays because I know it'll be filled with port-begging . I think it's even worse than people begging for SH2 to be on Switch just because of how widespread the former is (just go on reddit and resetera and you'll see how much people really hate the Switch).

 

[Kenka]

I just came in to say that I am absolutely frustrated by the lack of a Soul Hackers 2 version on Switch.

Fuck.
Shit.
Supreme fuck.

 

[hroerekr]

Launch Window (aka full price), SMTV sells more.
LTD will be dictated by deep discounts, so SH is more likely to come on top in the end.

 

[EnergyDrink]

I can not see SH2 selling even near the level of SMTV (1 mio).

Why should it? From the marketing it looks like a generic JRPG with no hook to get people interested outside of the usual niche (Atlus) JRPG crowd. Aesthetically it looks like some f2p mobile game.

I think the most successful platform and region for such a game is probably the Switch and Asia, but Switch is the only platform they skipped and with that they skipped big parts of Asian markets too.

So SH2 will come and go and will be happy to sell even a little fraction of SMTV.

 

[muro9685]

I can not see SH2 selling even near the level of SMTV (1 mio).

Why should it? From the marketing it looks like a generic JRPG with no hook to get people interested outside of the usual niche (Atlus) JRPG crowd. Aesthetically it looks like some f2p mobile game.

I think the most successful platform and region for such a game is probably the Switch and Asia, but Switch is the only platform they skipped and with that they skipped big parts of Asian markets too.

So SH2 will come and go and will be happy to sell even a little fraction of SMTV.

Asia is the land of PC, it seems has the Switch has vastly outsold the ps4/5 and xbox there but that's nothing compared to the PC markets there

 

[Leica]

Asia is the land of PC, it seems has the Switch has vastly outsold the ps4/5 and xbox there but that's nothing compared to the PC markets there

PC is a tough market for games like this because they tend to drown on storefonts if they don't get a significant visibility push, especially if they're full price. That said I don't really think the game looks like a "F2P mobile game" either, it's visually a bit more interesting than SMTV but that isn't saying much when that game was another level of blandness visually.

Ultimately people are just not gonna know what Soul Hackers is in the West and the fact it's a got a 2 in the title makes it even worse, they should have just kept that off. If they were smart they'd try and sell this to the Persona market in the West more than anything but instead they just don't seem to be marketing it in the West at all.

 

[fiendcode]

Asia is the land of PC, it seems has the Switch has vastly outsold the ps4/5 and xbox there but that's nothing compared to the PC markets there

SMTV will almost certainly get a PC release too though.

 

[ILikeFeet]

here's some footage if you want to measure that against SMT5. looks way more limited in comparison

 

[fiendcode]

TMS2

 

[WD-M01]

here's some footage if you want to measure that against SMT5. looks way more limited in comparison

I still can't comprehend how Atlus sees this as a tentpole title. Also that map seems like the worst one to show, at least marketing wise.

 

[Fiendslayer]

There is no reason why this should not outsell SMTV given its on 5 platforms that have an install base (both active or not) many times of Switch by itself (SMTV). Whether is initial full priced sales or eventual LTD, it should best SMTV easily.

Plus, I am sure Atlus management is choosing their platforms in a totally sales-rational way like some folks here keep saying, so i believe they are they are not expecting failure at all, or a game that sells less than another on a single platform. They made their platform choices based on what they claim to be the best possible for the series to be a "pillar of the company".

 

[Kmds]

There is no reason why this should not outsell SMTV given its on 5 platforms that have an install base (both active or not) many times of Switch by itself (SMTV). Whether is initial full priced sales or eventual LTD, it should best SMTV easily.

Plus, I am sure Atlus management is choosing their platforms in a totally sales-rational way like some folks here keep saying, so i believe they are they are not expecting failure at all, or a game that sells less than another on a single platform. They made their platform choices based on what they claim to be the best possible for the series to be a "pillar of the company".

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not. The game not being on its 99% likely biggest platform (the switch) isn't rational thinking in any sort of logical way. Like there's 0 rational for any Shin Megami Tensei game to not be on a Nintendo system. Absolutely zero.

 

[uncleoptimus]

The game not being on its 99% likely biggest platform (the switch) isn't rational thinking in any sort of logical way. Like there's 0 rational for any Shin Megami Tensei game to not be on a Nintendo system. Absolutely zero.

But this is *Soul Hackers*, not *Shin Megami Tensei*

But in all seriousness, given *Persona* success, I don't see where anyone could confidently say "99% switch would be the best target platform".

Meanwhile I am interested for why it is not launching on switch, but I disagree there are no logical reasons. This might have officially gotten shot down, but one possible rational explanation could simply be "We here on this Atlus team literally do not have the ability and/or resources to simultaneously guarantee a quality switch version while also hitting our target of 5 platforms and simultaneous self-published worldwide release for the first time". For all we know (or rather that I have heard reported thus far) a switch sku could have been explored and even steps taken to work it into the dev pipeline, before deciding to pull back? I am on the wait-and-see train with *Soul Hackers* on switch and could see a "bonus content" version released next year.

Someone please correct me if thats already been demonstrated to not be the case.

As for OP's question:

I fully expect *SMTV* to get at bare minimum a PC version, and that factors into my prediction that *Soul Hackers* does not outsell it. The wildcard would be if the game turns out virally GOOD.