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Will PlayStation 5 have a physical million-seller in Japan?

Will PlayStation 5 have a physical million-seller in Japan?

  • Yes it will get multiple million-sellers like PS4

    Votes: 21 25.6%

  • Yes it will get 1 million-seller like Vita

    Votes: 25 30.5%

  • No it won't have any million-sellers

    Votes: 36 43.9%
  • Total voters
    82
MysticGon

MysticGon

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Courtesy - Game Data Library

I won't post the PS5 list but if you google "chickenfeed" you'll have an accurate idea of how physical software sales are currently going in Japan.

PS5 has been on sale for 39 months. PS4 managed to only have 1 million-seller in that time but after that it got one annually until the end of the gen, 2 of them physically.

Sequels to every million-seller on PS4 have been announced. Not all with platforms but only 1 is a wild card.

Do you think they or any new title can manage to sell 1 million+ physical on PS5?
 
monster hunter wilds will be the closest if it doesn't make it. but I think that could be undercut if there's a drake version day one

after that, I can't think of anything outside of something surprising
 
MH Wilds but only if it's not on Switch 2. Same for DQXII but same deal re: Switch 1 or 2.
 
Absolutely not.

By the summer of 2017, you already had 50% of the top 50 best selling games in Japan be ps4 sales.

I don’t think we have yet to see ps5 crack the top 10% of games sales?

Those saying ok, sure, at least MH will…I dunno. FF15 was able to crack 1 million on the ps4. FF16 hasn’t even cracked 500k on the ps5.

The only chance is MH on the ps5. But even then, I just don’t see it the way ps5 software sales have been.
 
I don’t think so, largely due to the continued decline in PS SW sales overall and ongoing transition toward digital sales.

Maybe Monster Hunter or something unexpected like physical Palworld.
 
MH Wilds and DQ 12 is easy bet.(Because if it don't hit 1m in japan thats absolutely disaster level of problem for PS5 in Japan)
 
Monster Hunter almost sure and Dragon Quest maybe (more to not be). Hard to imagine others outside of those two.
 
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Danny said:
But won't many people buy DQ 12 for the Switch 2 instead of PS5 in Japan?
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DQ is a ~4 million copy selling franchise, so even if the vast majority of the buyers get it on Switch, surely there would be enough people getting it on another platform to potentially reach a million.
 
MHW, DQ12, GTV6. I wouldn't be surprised if two managed to sell one million at retail, but it's not a given.
 
MH Wilds and DQ12 will be the only 2.

The unlikely scenario of MHW coming to Switch 2 at D1 and DQ12 being NSW2 temp. exclusive are the only way it to prevent it entirely.
 
As others have said: Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest and possibly GTAVI seem like they should be million sellers at retailers.

It's going to be harder to tell if others, like Kingdom Hearts 4, cross that barrier because a chunk more will shift to digital.
 
KillerMan said:
Even with big decline from World Wilds should still do at least a million. Outside of that slim pickings. Maybe GTA VI.
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Yeah lol. I forget about GTA6. Thats another 1m seller in Japan for sure.
 
Banjokazooie1992 said:
If MH Wilds and DQ12 are on the succ then I really can't see it happening.
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PS5 owners would still want to buy something on their console there lol. If they even ignore the biggest title on their console even if it is multiplat. I will be surprised.
 
KtSlime said:
DQ is a ~4 million copy selling franchise, so even if the vast majority of the buyers get it on Switch, surely there would be enough people getting it on another platform to potentially reach a million.
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Since the question is about retail that wouldn't necessary be so easy.

Assuming a (not that high) 20% digital rate DQXII would need to sell 1.25M on PS5
30% digital rate : 1.43M

If the starting point is 4M LTD it would mean PS4 having 30-35% of DQ XII total share of sales

Against a waning 3DS (and before NSW SKU came out) DQXI PS4 got above 40%, depending on the platform situation of DQXII it could be a very tall order and PS5 software selling power is worse than PS4 currently.

A reinvigorated DQ XII reaching 5M from its first release I would be confident (with something like >1M retail for PS5 <1.5M with digital, and 3.5M for whatever Nintendo hardware it releases on + eventual scraps on PC and Xbox), otherwise it might fall short a little bit.

TLDR; Growing digital, worse software sales on PS5 than PS4 makes it a harder task, depending on which other platforms DQXII release on might change the PS5 SKU appeal as well.
 
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It really boggles my mind the downfall of Final Fantasy in Japan. FFXVI not even breaking XV is just jaw dropping.

On the topic, I think it's Monster Hunters Wilds and... That's it? I know there's Dragon Quest, but at this point it would be WILD if the series didn't release multiplatform with the Nintendo release being bigger. It just feels like more of a Nintendo type game now.
 
GTAVI won't do it, PS5 software ecosystem is just too weak. GTAV didn't do it either unless you combine generations (PS3+4) so an even weaker generational software situation has basically no hope here.

DQXII is unlikely due to competitive platforms (likely Switch 1/2, but also PS4 yet) which really leaves MHWilds as the lone realistic possibility imo. And while PS5 software sales are catastrophic, World still did ~2m retail on PS4, so even with a FFXVI level decline Wilds should still come in near ~1.2m. The only issue for Wilds is if Capcom presses that Drake button, then it'll be lucky to even match FFXVI's actual sales.
 
This poll pretty much hinges entirely on Monster Hunter Wilds performance.
 
AruanaRiva said:
Lol. U guys are too pessimistic kek.

GTA6 is going to be titan size release even in japan. Doing 1m should not be hard there.
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I'm not trying to be, just not too much movement on the Playstation front. Previous million sellers don't look to be hitting their old numbers, so it's hard to expect the top end to not collapse too
 
AruanaRiva said:
Lol. U guys are too pessimistic kek.

GTA6 is going to be titan size release even in japan. Doing 1m should not be hard there.
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It's 1m physcal sold though. Something GTA has never managed before on a single console and it's going to easily do that on PS5 of all systems?

People aren't pessimistic enough here if they're really floating GTAVI PS5 as a likely physical million seller. I fail to understand why people always extend Sony the benefit of the doubt this way, but especially now in the face of their Dreamcastic Japan software sales.
 
fiendcode said:
It's 1m physcal sold though. Something GTA has never managed before on a single console and it's going to easily do that on PS5 of all systems?

People aren't pessimistic enough here if they're really floating GTAVI PS5 as a likely physical million seller. I fail to understand why people always extend Sony the benefit of the doubt this way, but especially now in the face of their Dreamcastic Japan software sales.
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Haha. I dont want to go too pessimistic as who know suddenly the PS5 owner suddenly wake up for big game kek.
 
fiendcode said:
GTAVI won't do it, PS5 software ecosystem is just too weak. GTAV didn't do it either unless you combine generations (PS3+4) so an even weaker generational software situation has basically no hope here.

DQXII is unlikely due to competitive platforms (likely Switch 1/2, but also PS4 yet) which really leaves MHWilds as the lone realistic possibility imo. And while PS5 software sales are catastrophic, World still did ~2m retail on PS4, so even with a FFXVI level decline Wilds should still come in near ~1.2m. The only issue for Wilds is if Capcom presses that Drake button, then it'll be lucky to even match FFXVI's actual sales.
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GTA V on PS3 did over 1 million in retail if you combine all versions. Retail PS4 version obviously didn't but it had impressive legs and even in japan should have rather high digital split so wouldn't surprise me if it's only behind World when it comes to all PS4 sw. Not saying that it's given that GTA VI does 1 million on PS5 in retail but to me it has next best chances after MH Wilds.
 
KillerMan said:
GTA V on PS3 did over 1 million in retail if you combine all versions. Retail PS4 version obviously didn't but it had impressive legs and even in japan should have rather high digital split so wouldn't surprise me if it's only behind World when it comes to all PS4 sw. Not saying that it's given that GTA VI does 1 million on PS5 in retail but to me it has next best chances after MH Wilds.
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PS3 version is 880k going by Famitsu, all versions combined. Was it higher in MC?
 
fiendcode said:
PS3 version is 880k going by Famitsu, all versions combined. Was it higher in MC?
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Yeah. Did this calculation back in 2020 based on MC data:

KillerMan91 said:
2013 CY {2012.12.31 - 2013.12.29} 009. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2013.10.10} (¥7.400) - 649.091 / 649.091

2014 CY {2013.12.30 - 2014.12.28} 050. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2013.10.10} (¥7.400) - 138.142 / 787.233



2014 CY {2013.12.30 - 2014.12.28} 085. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V [1][New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2014.06.26} (¥4.990) - 96.084 / 96.084

2015 CY {2014.12.29 - 2016.01.03} 118. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V [1][New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2014.06.26} (¥4.990) - 58.119 / 154.204



2015 CY {2014.12.29 - 2016.01.03} 280. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V [2][New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥3.240) - 18.671 / 18.671

2016 CY {2016.01.04 - 2017.01.01} 168. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V [2][New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥3.240) - 36.813 / 55.484

2017 CY {2017.01.04 - 2018.01.01} 286. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V [2][New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥3.240) - 13.452 / 68.935



= 1.010.372
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Vena said:
MH:Wilds seems like a safe-ish bet.
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Maybe but a few things eat into that idea, if a PC build is day and date with the PS5 release then it will have some pressure. Then their is what ever Capcom has planed for Nintendo platforms, which will add to it...
Outside of that... I can't see another software release on PS5 come close but I am open to surprises.
 
if SE and Capcom fuck up their multiplat releases then yes

if they're smart then no, no physical million seller
 
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