Will PlayStation 5 be like Switch sell more than PS4+PSV combined?

[MysticGon]

Some data:

PS4 - Over 117 million
PSV - About 13 million

PlayStation 4 hardware sales worldwide

	1Q​	2Q​	3Q​	4Q​	Annual total​
FY2013	–​	–​	450​	310​	760​
FY2014	280​	340​	640​	230​	1480​
FY2015	290​	400​	840​	240​	1760​
FY2016	350​	390​	970​	290​	2000​
FY2017	330​	420​	900​	250​	1900​
FY2018	320​	390​	810​	260​	1780​
FY2019	320​	280​	600​	140​	1350​
FY2020	190​	150​	140​	100​	570​
FY2021	50​	20​	20​	10​	100​

PlayStation 5 hardware sales worldwide

	1Q​	2Q​	3Q​	4Q​	Annual total​
FY2020	–​	–​	450​	330​	780​
FY2021	230​	330​	390​	200​	1150​
FY2022	240​	330​	710​	630​	1910​
FY2023	330​

It would need to clear 130 million to do what Switch did and outsell the combined hardware sales of the previous generation.

Things in it's favor

• Likely to receive new Grand Theft Auto
• Emerging markets
• Potentially longer generation

Things working against it

• Strong competition from Switch, PC, Game Pass
• First party novelty wearing off
• Tracking behind PS4

 

[storres]

I could see it selling around PS4.

 

[Godzilla]

Just like the Switch, depends how long will the console will be on the market.

 

[Koti]

100m is probably the best it can do. I doubt it would even pass the PS4 even with a longer generation.

-PS4 benefited from its competitors doing poor
-Microsoft just acquired Activision Blizzard which will definitely affect sales
-Next Nintendo System is rumored to be decently powerful
-Price increases
-Tough economy

 

[allan-bh]

No, can even sell less than PS4 alone.

 

[GaiusBaltar25]

I could see the PS5 selling around 110-125m. I think GTAVI will help push it beyond it's current trajectory. Their first party portfolio should also be hitting on all cylinders in the second half of this gen.

 

[fiendcode]

Too early to say tbh. Which feels weird 3 years in.

 

[kazuyamishima]

I’m still surprised some users think Switch/Switch 2 impacts Sony directly and viceversa.

But the system is really close launch aligned with the PS4. Back in October 2016, the PS4 was $299 whilst the PS5 is still $499.

And after 3 years, Spider-Man 2 will be the first Big PS5 Exclusive

 

[storres]

I’m still surprised some users think Switch/Switch 2 impacts Sony directly and viceversa.

But the system is really close launch aligned with the PS4. Back in October 2016, the PS4 was $299 whilst the PS5 is still $499.

And after 3 years, Spider-Man 2 will be the first Big PS5 Exclusive

I don't want to be that guy, but that was proven in court. That Switch impacted both PS4 and Xbox.

 

[allan-bh]

I’m still surprised some users think Switch/Switch 2 impacts Sony directly and viceversa.

But the system is really close launch aligned with the PS4. Back in October 2016, the PS4 was $299 whilst the PS5 is still $499.

And after 3 years, Spider-Man 2 will be the first Big PS5

Despite not being a direct competitor of Playstation in the same level as Xbox, I'm sure Switch is a factor.

They're all video games after all, so despite the demographics diferences, some crowds they compete for are the same.

 

[LoneRanger]

Yeah sure.

PS4 got a little bit of its late life cut. Otherwise, it could have done also +130 millions.

If Sony doesn’t do the same for PS5 when PS6 releases, it will most probably sell +130 millions.

Unless Switch NG does some serious damage to both Sony/Microsoft.

But we still need to see GTAVI performance.

 

[Josh5890]

GTA VI will provided a good boost, but I think that Sony will need another Fortnite phenomenon in order to hit 130m.

Sony's price strategy tells me they are going for higher margins over sales volume. Unless Sony goes for a price drop on the regular and introduce the Pro at $499 (not betting on it), then I have a hard time seeing 130m.

 

[salesguy]

-PS4 benefited from its competitors doing poor

It's main competitor is Xbox and that's doing the same or a little worse than prior gen.

I’m still surprised some users think Switch/Switch 2 impacts Sony directly and viceversa.

Yep. Mostly Sony and Microsoft compete with each other. I'm sure there's been people in the history of the world who bought a Nintendo console in lieu of a Sony/MS one, but it's going to be fairly rare. Heck I remember years ago Sony said "we have a competitor in the space" or something, relating to Playstation power or pricing I dont remember, and they only said one, clearly they meant Xbox.

I guess that could change if Switch 2 is powerful enough and gets some of the COD crowd, but I have my doubts. Not least of which Nintendo doesn't necessarily welcome 3rd party competition on their own platforms. I think it was cliffyb or some other dev who once said on other platforms our biggest adversary are other devs, on Nintendo platforms it's Nintendo.

That said overall I dont see the Ps5 doing markedly better than Ps4. It's already been ~3 yrs and it's as little behind, for whatever reason.

 

[Koti]

It's main competitor is Xbox and that's doing the same or a little worse than prior gen.


Yep. Mostly Sony and Microsoft compete with each other. I'm sure there's been people in the history of the world who bought a Nintendo console in lieu of a Sony/MS one, but it's going to be fairly rare. Heck I remember years ago Sony said "we have a competitor in the space" or something, relating to Playstation power or pricing I dont remember, and they only said one, clearly they meant Xbox.

I guess that could change if Switch 2 is powerful enough and gets some of the COD crowd, but I have my doubts. Not least of which Nintendo doesn't necessarily welcome 3rd party competition on their own platforms. I think it was cliffyb or some other dev who once said on other platforms our biggest adversary are other devs, on Nintendo platforms it's Nintendo.

That said overall I dont see the Ps5 doing markedly better than Ps4. It's already been ~3 yrs and it's as little behind, for whatever reason.

No, the "main" competitor are other platforms that plays the same games. This also includes PCs and stuff. Furthermore, the competition expands to all the other games like mobile, then every other entertainment including films and outside activities. Why? Cuz time is limited. There's so many options now compared to the PS4 gen. If Sony is only looking at the Xbox as its competitor, then they will someday pay the price for lack of awareness.

 

[KtSlime]

I’m still surprised some users think Switch/Switch 2 impacts Sony directly and viceversa.

But the system is really close launch aligned with the PS4. Back in October 2016, the PS4 was $299 whilst the PS5 is still $499.

And after 3 years, Spider-Man 2 will be the first Big PS5 Exclusive

Of course it does, if I want to play a game, and it is already on the console I have, that means I can save myself 67,000¥.

 

[aktoner]

The ps4 and ps5 will both sell many millions under where they could if Sony price it more aggressively but they're happy selling the hardware at big numbers and big profit per console.

 

[derby_440]

PS5 is still $499 and selling almost on par with PS4 which got price cut of $100 to $299 at this point. With current gen lasting till 2028, PS5 may have enough time to clear 130m.

 

[Megiddo]

PS4 was heavily cut down on its long term sales, so yes, I think PS5 has a good chance to get ~130M.

 

[derby_440]

GTA VI will provided a good boost, but I think that Sony will need another Fortnite phenomenon in order to hit 130m.

Sony's price strategy tells me they are going for higher margins over sales volume. Unless Sony goes for a price drop on the regular and introduce the Pro at $499 (not betting on it), then I have a hard time seeing 130m.

PS5 pro digital sku will be $499 because PS6 will have to work with in $499 price point and show substantial improvement.

 

[Joseki]

I don't see PS5 selling sensibly more than PS4 at this stage, but a lot with depend on how long this generation will be and that's not something we can really predict at this point.

PS4 was heavily cut down on its long term sales, so yes, I think PS5 has a good chance to get ~130M.

PS5 production will be heavily cut down as soon as PS6 launches too.

 

[Kirby]

It's going to be hard unless they knock it out of he park with the exclusives (not only big narrative games).

 

[Zaimokuza]

The ps4 went down in price pretty fast. I don't think we'll ever get something comparable to the 299 bundle with three AAA games for it.

If they wanted to tackle emerging markets they should have gone with a cheaper slim digital model and kept the Playstation Collection. Sony looks like it wants to maximize revenue at the expense of install base.

 

[SoonyXboneUhh]

I still refuse to believe, that PS5 will ship 10m this holiday quarter and sell more than PS4.
But with the rollout of the Slim Version, FY Q4 can be above PS4 again. How significantly, we'll see

 

[Xevross]

I'll take the under on 130m at the moment but it depends on the length of the generation (1yr longer this time would help), how well the PS5 pro is received and if Sony does do decent price cuts.

It will obviously also need consistent high quality exclusives like last gen, but Sony has almost nothing announced for the future past Spidey 2.

 

[Evilms]

The PS4 was also ahead of the PS2, and yet it will finish far behind.
So it's too early to say, and we'll see what sales are like when it passes the 100 million mark.

 

[GodlyTrident]

I don't think it will surpass PS4. Especially not with Switch 2 coming. One of the reasons of PS4 sales was weak Xbox and Switch not being a competitor and thus no third party support., With Switch 2 potentially getting third party support, a lot of PS advantages won't work anymore.

 

[Aostia82]

Not with the actual pricing/margin strategy imho
Unless they will drastically cut the price very late in the product life cycle once PS6 will be announced and released

 

[Drblitzk]

The PS4 was also ahead of the PS2, and yet it will finish far behind.
So it's too early to say, and we'll see what sales are like when it passes the 100 million mark.

Great graph!
Here we can see how PS2 and PS4 were basically in a tie, but in the end the differentiator factor was that de PS3 was an uber flop so the PS2 kept selling and the PS5 was not so the PS4 just stopped (and Covid as a secondary factor).
Seeing as PS5 is on the same trajectory whether it keeps selling for longer or not will have to do a lot with how the successor does.

 

[Megiddo]

PS5 production will be heavily cut down as soon as PS6 launches too.

Unless you're predicting another global pandemic which will bring production to a halt for a year or so, I really don't think that's the case. Sony has expanded its production capabilities since then as well.

 

[KtSlime]

Unless you're predicting another global pandemic which will bring production to a halt for a year or so, I really don't think that's the case. Sony has expanded its production capabilities since then as well.

There doesn't need to be a pandemic. For the PS5's legs to get cut off it only requires one thing - for Sony to release a sensible PS6. So unless you are expecting Sony to release a PS6 that is not backwards compatible, or one that is not at all reasonable in price, or one is such limited quantities that people decide it's not worth waiting to get a PS6 and buy a PS5 instead, or they simply wait until PS5 has sold close 130 million before even talking about PS6, I don't really see how they can successfully keep a PS5 selling while making the PS6 a success.

 

[Megiddo]

There doesn't need to be a pandemic. For the PS5's legs to get cut off it only requires one thing - for Sony to release a sensible PS6. So unless you are expecting Sony to release a PS6 that is not backwards compatible, or one that is not at all reasonable in price, or one is such limited quantities that people decide it's not worth waiting to get a PS6 and buy a PS5 instead, or they simply wait until PS5 has sold close 130 million before even talking about PS6, I don't really see how they can successfully keep a PS5 selling while making the PS6 a success.

The PS3 sold around 7.5 million additional systems from 2013 Q3 and beyond. The PS4 sold around 3.3 million additional systems from 2020 Q3 and beyond. Which do you think was a more "sensible" product as a successor? The PS4 or the PS5? Because honestly, I have no idea what you are even talking about when it comes to "sensible". You're going to have to elaborate on what you mean.

 

[KtSlime]

The PS3 sold around 7.5 million additional systems from 2013 Q3 and beyond. The PS4 sold around 3.3 million additional systems from 2020 Q3 and beyond. Which do you think was a more "sensible" product as a successor? The PS4 or the PS5? Because honestly, I have no idea what you are even talking about when it comes to "sensible". You're going to have to elaborate on what you mean.

The hardware that does not require you to throw out your entire library of software, is obviously more sensible, however price and other factors also play part. Aside from the price, I think the PS4→PS5 is a more reasonable hardware transition than the PS2→PS3 or PS3→PS4. I think this is also reflected in how many old consoles sold after the new console is released. The PS2 received a very long tail because the PS3 was completely unreasonable in price (and soon received revisions which lost compatibility with older software), and the PS3 received a longer tail because the PS4 was completely incompatible with the existing PlayStation games libraries on shelves and in homes. It seems natural to me that the PS4's tail did not suffer so much due to a pandemic, but rather because the PS5 was a much better, more sensible product than either PS3 or PS4.

 

[Megiddo]

The PS4's tail absolutely suffered due to the production issues directly caused by the pandemic. That is factual.

 

[AuroraMusisAmica]

The year is 2028

PlayStation 5 has just received its 6th price hike to $849/€799/¥4,800,898

It has once again seen record sales from the previous year. Hope is lost.

 

[fiendcode]

PS4/PS5 is probably the cleanest transition Sony's had since PS1/PS2, despite the Covid window production difficulties. Sony prioritized PS5 but it's not like PS4 had to almost entirely halt the way it did either, there was some strategy involved in accelerating the transition and moving their base over asap.

PS4 was cheap to make at that point, it wasn't really a capacity issue. Look at Nintendo who had little issue after the initial Covid impact assembling the (more complex) Switch en mass despite being a much smaller company with more limited access to manufacturing resources.

 

[Joseki]

The PS3 sold around 7.5 million additional systems from 2013 Q3 and beyond. The PS4 sold around 3.3 million additional systems from 2020 Q3 and beyond. Which do you think was a more "sensible" product as a successor? The PS4 or the PS5? Because honestly, I have no idea what you are even talking about when it comes to "sensible". You're going to have to elaborate on what you mean.

PS4 wasn’t BC and it had basically no games at launch.

Neither thing will be true for PS6 (as they weren’t true for PS5) and therefore Sony will convert every production line ASAP to meet demand.

Sony actively wanted to kill PS4 production.

 

[GaspNAwe]

I don't expect the PS5 to outsell the PS4, given the rumors that the switch 2 will use some DLSS adjacent technology to be able to play current generation games. Third party software sales and thus console will be eaten into, as opposed last generation being a nearly one party race for these titles, given the strong Sony exclusive line-up.

Sony willingness to publish previously PS exclusive titles on PC PC will not help either.

 

[Remember_spinal]

I don't expect the PS5 to outsell the PS4, given the rumors that the switch 2 will use some DLSS adjacent technology to be able to play current generation games. Third party software sales and thus console will be eaten into, as opposed last generation being a nearly one party race for these titles, given the strong Sony exclusive line-up.

Sony willingness to publish previously PS exclusive titles on PC PC will not help either.

I think some of you (once again) are going to be let down by the third party offerings on ‘Switch 2’ mid way into this current generation.

 

[Phenom08]

I think some of you (once again) are going to be let down by the third party offerings on ‘Switch 2’ mid way into this current generation.

That depends on your expectations. If you are expecting Switch 2 to get everything, then yeah you will be let down. If you are expecting Switch 2 to get the annual behemoths such as CoD, Fifa, Madden, and even Assassin Creed then that isn't unreasonable. This with the GAAS games will certainly cause some sway in the market. The other AAAs even GTA will be a case by case basis. For now Switch 2 needs to carve out just some of the 3rd party AAA market and build from there.

 

[allan-bh]

If it was a 7 years gen I would be comfortable betting that PS5 would not outsell PS4, but since 2028 seems to be the target for next gen, I will not be surprised if sells a little better.

 

[unkindlynice]

I mean sure but Vita is an irrelevance to this discussion.

 

[Mcbel]

Now that Activision is officially a part of Xbox, I can't see it beating PS4. The competition from MS will be fierce in the upcoming years.

EDIT: Oh I forgot about Switch 2. If the rumors about it being powerful enough to run most 3rd party titles then PS5 will have even more competition.

 

[Blue Monty]

Basically it would need to sell as well as PS4 + not get sales cut off as early as PS4 did, if PS5 (and Xbox Series) launched in 2021 instead of 2020, PS4 probably would have reached 130m which is the goal in OP. I think this situation is realistic but we will see because it depends a lot on Sony hability to provide great deals from 2024 onwards like it did in PS4 second half this will be needed especially outside USA with how expensive is the console

 

[AruanaRiva]

I think PS5 has chance of beating PS4 but with the high price point and how the economy globally is going. I think there is chance of it coming short of PS4 as well especially if there is no price cut to get the more price concious audience.

For it to beat Vita+PS4 i think it is going to be very hard as many need to remember that Fornite boost that really help push many PS and Xbox last gen.

 

[epicene101]

You gave me no wiggle room lol. I haven’t voted yet because my answer is maybe. A lot of it depends on how good this holiday season will be for PS5. If it hits (or gets near) its target, then I will lean to a yes it will/can pass PS4 + Vita.

We will see.

 

[salesguy]

It's going to have enough trouble passing PS4....if at all. And that's with lucky for them Microsoft airmailed them the dub this gen with the Series S.