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Which PlayStation do you think PS5 lifetime sales will resemble in Japan?

Which PlayStation do you think PS5 lifetime sales will resemble in Japan?

  • PlayStation 3 - 10.274.113

    Votes: 4 5.6%

  • PlayStation Vita - 5.863.022

    Votes: 43 60.6%

  • PlayStation 4 - 9.395.468

    Votes: 24 33.8%
  • Total voters
    71
MysticGon

MysticGon

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Credit: @Hiska-kun

Current PlayStation 5 numbers are somewhere between the numbers of PlayStation Vita and PlayStation 4 launch aligned before they diverge for good. PS5 has kept pace with them for the first 1.7 million sales but where do you expect things to from here?

We know about shortages Sony expects for the rest of 2022 and the upcoming slate of games in 2023.

Thanks to leaks we also know at little more besides.

We know sales disasters like the Wii U and Vita were able to obtain a few software sales successes with a limited install base. Those successes like Splatoon and Minecraft were driven by younger audiences which may differ from the demographic buying PS5.
 
I'm choosing to believe Sony has it in them to turn this situation around like they did with the PS3 eventually and manage to get closer to PS4 level sales, but man, it could go any number of ways.
 
Too soon to tell, but since it’s just a guess I will say exactly between vita and ps4 at 7.6m. PS5 does have one slight advantage over PS4. It will be on the market likely for another 15 weeks longer, since PS5 was launched in Japan at the same time as the US, and the PS6 would likely do the same? Meaning it would get an entire ~7 years to sell as many as PS4 sold in 6 years 8 months.
 
KtSlime said:
Too soon to tell, but since it’s just a guess I will say exactly between vita and ps4 at 7.6m. PS5 does have one slight advantage over PS4. It will be on the market likely for another 15 weeks longer, since PS5 was launched in Japan at the same time as the US, and the PS6 would likely do the same? Meaning it would get an entire ~7 years to sell as many as PS4 sold in 6 years 8 months.
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6- 7.5 Millions. The switch is the strongest competition against Sony stationary consoles( The situation seems More NES vs PC-engine than SNES vs Genesis). And you have the Xbox series strong enough too. Ps4 has all thirds, A an AA exclusivity ( because of Vita pipeline), and weaker competitions. Sony needs more competition screw-up than its own merits.
 
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Shortages, more multiplatform games on Switch and Xbox being much better value than last gen will hurt PS5 sales. It will sell 3-4 millions less than PS4. Unless one or two of the GaaS games Sony is going to release in the next few years pull a Splatoon in Japan, but I wouldn't bet on it.
 
This generation will be a really long one, I expect it to reach PS4 numbers (maybe even ps3 ones) even if it will take a lot more time and will not reach the software sales of PS4.
 
Hardware: somewhere between Vita and PS4, probably right in the middle
Software: does PocketStation count?
 
Astral_lion02 said:
I'm sure I've seen a similar thread before.
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Me, too, but search function won't show anything using the words "PlayStation 5" and "sales". Weird.

Especially because that thread had a poll and I remember most people voting for PS5 LTD that were WAY below PS4 and Vita, like, 6 mio was the most popular choice iirc. So the replies in this thread so far are a bit surprising. Maybe someone else can actually find the old thread? Poll might have gotten lost in that first major forum update, though.
 
I do think indies and free-to-play games will eventually make up for the decline small and midsize studio decline. By their nature they are hard to track but I think that will be enough to get it into the low to mid 7 millions.
 
I don't think we'll ever know the real number of Playstation 5's in the wild in Japan with so much scalping. We might get a number from the likes of famitsu or media create but that only counts it when it leaves the shelf of a store, not if that console crosses the border into another country. The best way to measure the PS5's success is its software sales since those aren't being scalped.
 
Smelly said:
I don't think we'll ever know the real number of Playstation 5's in the wild in Japan with so much scalping. We might get a number from the likes of famitsu or media create but that only counts it when it leaves the shelf of a store, not if that console crosses the border into another country. The best way to measure the PS5's success is its software sales since those aren't being scalped.
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Not really sure how you can even measure it by software sales with completely digital consoles and incomplete retail sales metrics
 
MysticGon said:
I do think indies and free-to-play games will eventually make up for the decline small and midsize studio decline. By their nature they are hard to track but I think that will be enough to get it into the low to mid 7 millions.
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Indies PS has no chance to compete with Switch/Nintendo in Japan (and even worldwide it is considered the weakest platform for indies). F2P games seem Sony biggest strength in the market right now, but I wonder what will happen once Nintendo releases a console that is powerful enough to support all the popular F2P titles
 
Smelly said:
I don't think we'll ever know the real number of Playstation 5's in the wild in Japan with so much scalping. We might get a number from the likes of famitsu or media create but that only counts it when it leaves the shelf of a store, not if that console crosses the border into another country. The best way to measure the PS5's success is its software sales since those aren't being scalped.
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That's even worse with the rise of digital, a digital only console, PS4 BC, and the rise of F2P games. PS5 supply issues will eventually alleviate.
 
MegaXZero said:
Because the physical software decline in Japan has been so catastrophic for the PS5 that digital can't make up the difference.
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And even then the data we get from the PS Store isn’t promising even if they are just rankings.
 
I voted Vita but I definitely think it'll still end up well above that. I think the question is will it end up closer to Vita or PS4 in the end, and I think it's hard to say for sure right now because that is a big gap.
 
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