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Which IP do you expect to continue growing, declining, and holding steady in Japan in the coming years?

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Nintendo of course continues to show remarkable growth for a frankly absurd number of its IP in Japan; however, the rest of the market has seen some fairly dramatic contraction in sales within the country over the last generation/decade, compared to their erstwhile heyday and peaks. Last generation, franchises such as Tales, Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, Metal Gear Solid, Gran Turismo, Resident Evil, Street Fighter, Yakuza, among others, all saw some pretty severe declines.

It wasn't all bad news though; a lot of Nintendo IP obviously hit its highest highs ever (Animal Crossing, The Legend of Zelda, Super Smash Bros., Xenoblade), third party franchises like Persona and Shin Megami Tensei hit historic franchise highs with incredible growth, and even bigger IP such as Monster Hunter mostly managed to hold steady.

Now my question is, going forward - which IP in Japan do you expect to continue to:
  • Decline
  • Grow
  • (Mostly) hold steady
This is specifically pertaining to the Japanese market, mind you (stuff like Resident Evil and Yakuza hit their lifetime peaks globally in spite of posting decline in Japan), so do bear that in mind. This is for both Nintendo and third party IP.
 
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Decline: Monster Hunter. The next game will likely not be on Switch, barring an unexpectedly powerful revision in the future, and the install base won’t be there to support growth over World and Rise. I’m expecting World 2 in general to be a bit down compared to World since the excitement over the series coming back to home consoles will have worn down a bit, though the series overall will still be in a better place overall than it was 6 years ago.

Hold: Pokémon. I feel Sword and Shield are about the ceiling of what Pokémon will sell on Switch, but I expect that ceiling will be pretty reliably hit.

Grow: This one is probably the hardest for me to answer, but Kirby, Xenoblade, and Persona all feel like good series to see further growth in the near future. I also expect Dragon Quest XII to outsell Dragon Quest XI.
 
I’m sorry, in the what years?

Any series only on PS will decline for sure. Growth is harder to predict because who could’ve predicted BOTW doing as well as it did? Another 2D Kirby would’ve declined, but going 3D allowed for growth. So it’s hard to say.
 
mariodk18 said:
I’m sorry, in the what years?

Any series only on PS will decline for sure. Growth is harder to predict because who could’ve predicted BOTW doing as well as it did? Another 2D Kirby would’ve declined, but going 3D allowed for growth. So it’s hard to say.
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What an amazing typo, lol. Fixed!
 
Great thread idea.

I see Koei Tecmo being reasonably good at keep Musou games steady. Going from 150,000 on the low end and 350,000 on the high end. Their formula has been worked out and their pipeline is probably the best in the business.

I see a decline coming for Monster Hunter in the next few years. World was able to notch up 3 million sales and Rise is likely around 4 million. Great numbers that more more less represent the series being flat from the 3DS days. That said PlayStation alone will barely be able to support a single platinum seller much less a 2x/3x platinum seller. Shortages will make it impossible.

I expect to see growth from Nihon Falcon games as they embrace multiplatform releases. They are consistent and passionate and I don't think that will be ignored by RPG fans of new platforms.


mariodk18 said:
I’m sorry, in the what years?
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I can only imagine...
 
The question is what 3rd party franchise not on Switch/Successor can grow?
The best most can do is hold steady right now is hold steady.
Wasn't Tales of Arise considered a success in Japan because we were expecting a significant decline?

Would a PS exclusive Persona 6 be able to achieve what Persona 5 did in 2016? I don't know.

I think:
Final Fantasy - decline. FFXVI and FF7 Rebirth are PS5 exclusive.

Resident Evil - decline. Unless that Switch focused RE appears the whole franchise will be in decline.

Monster Hunter - I think World 2 (especially if not PS4 version) will sell less than Rise... so decline.

Street Fighter - I think it's possible this could hold steady as it will also be on the PS4, but that all depends on how late into 2023 it releases. But I'm leaning towards decline.

Dragon Quest - steady. The next 2 DQ games are spin-offs and I think they will perform the aboit same as other non-mainline/non-brand new installments.
DQ XII has no announced platforms but if it was PS4+PS5 it would probably perform the same as the original PS4 release of DQXI (without the 3DS version) so overall that would be a decline...
However, if Switch is also a platform it will hold steady (I.e. Switch release taking place of 3DS).

I wanna about more franchises but I'm too tired right now lol.
I'll come back and talk about more later.
 
Growth inside Japan: All 3rd-party franchises that fully embrace the Switch/Switch 2. This is almost a non-brainer due to the massive gulf in hw install base between Nintendo-platforms and Sony-platforms, but even ignoring that, there's a lot of potential. The two big ones are Capcom and Bandai Namco. If those start putting ALL their games on Switch 2 day 1, a lot of growth is possible, even in franchises such as Resident Evil or Monster Hunter.

Decline in Japan: On the other hand, I expect plenty of Nintendo-franchises to sell less than their predecessors, because the hype and ths interest won't be as high as before. BotW 2 will still sell well, but I don't expect it to beat BotW 1's sales.

Stay as is: Franchises like Splatoon, Fire Emblem or Mario will sell similar to what they sold before. The hw install is big, but it probably won't be able to grow in a meaningful way again, and thus these franchises will stagnate, too. Which is not a bad feat at the level they're at.

If I had to make a Top3 for each Growth and Decline, these franchises are my pick:

Growth Top 3:
- Xenoblade 3 (relatively, this has the greatest growth potential)
- Persona 6 (biggest growth potential in absolute numbers, if on Switch day 1)
- Dragon Quest 12

Decrease Top 3:
- Breath of the Wild 2 (still good numbers, but noticeably below BotW 1)
- Animal Crossing NEXT (this franchise can only lose compared to Horizon's mega success that was aided by the pandemic)
- Final Fantasy 16 (for all the established reasons)
 
I could not answer the whole question but for me the ip' with more potential to grow is Splatoon. Not only in Japan but WW too.
I do not get why such a game should enter in a stagnation mode. It's only a 7 year old ip, so there is plenty of room for it to expand imo.
 
J-Cat said:
The question is what 3rd party franchise not on Switch/Successor can grow?
The best most can do is hold steady right now is hold steady.
Wasn't Tales of Arise considered a success in Japan because we were expecting a significant decline?

Would a PS exclusive Persona 6 be able to achieve what Persona 5 did in 2016? I don't know.

I think:
Final Fantasy - decline. FFXVI and FF7 Rebirth are PS5 exclusive.

Resident Evil - decline. Unless that Switch focused RE appears the whole franchise will be in decline.

Monster Hunter - I think World 2 (especially if not PS4 version) will sell less than Rise... so decline.

Street Fighter - I think it's possible this could hold steady as it will also be on the PS4, but that all depends on how late into 2023 it releases. But I'm leaning towards decline.

Dragon Quest - steady. The next 2 DQ games are spin-offs and I think they will perform the aboit same as other non-mainline/non-brand new installments.
DQ XII has no announced platforms but if it was PS4+PS5 it would probably perform the same as the original PS4 release of DQXI (without the 3DS version) so overall that would be a decline...
However, if Switch is also a platform it will hold steady (I.e. Switch release taking place of 3DS).

I wanna about more franchises but I'm too tired right now lol.
I'll come back and talk about more later.
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Nier is the only one i can think of.
 
If Splatoon 3 hits it huge, I think it can possibly maintain more or less. MH as well, as long as they keep being surgical with it.

Imo something like a new ip will likely be where a mania might be found in terms of growth. Kinda like the way Splatoon did, and Monster Hunter before it.

Decline? Sadly, I expect nearly all the 3P titans of yesterday to continue to decline.

FF will be closely watched as the new action battle system will be a point of interest.
But I do expect it to do lower numbers than the last. Kh4 is in the same boat.

I don't expect Botw2 to do as well as the first. Nor the next 3d Mario.

Declines are easier to call than successes I find.
 
Tomodachi and Pikmin should be the biggest growers by far whenever they come out, and if Pokkén or Rhythm Heaven ever get new installments they could join the club. Momotaro and Ring Fit seem like the kind of series that won't get near their peak again but they'll still be massive
 
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