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Apologies in advance for the lengthy OP, but I promise it's a thoughtful and informative read.
THE SUCCESS OF HD-2D
The first Octopath Traveler had lot going for it. It was a new IP targeted at an audience that had grown up with the RPG genre, presented with an eye-catching visual style, just enough modern conveniences to balance out its old-school approach, and was announced alongside an exciting new platform.
In short, it was a novel product announced/released on the right platform at the right time, and went on to see admirable sales over the next several years. It was at 2.5 million units shipped as of Feb 2021, and is at over 3 million today.
The HD-2D announcements that followed in the wake of Octopath 1 suggested that Square Enix understood that this "novelty" was a crucial factor in the success of its HD-2D portfolio. Triangle Strategy was an SRPG, Live-A-Live was a rare, long-lost game, and Dragon Quest 3 was a remake of a beloved game with a built-in audience.
Each of these games went on to do reasonably well for what it was. Triangle Strategy sold 800,000 units globally within two weeks of release and eventually legged its way to 1 million. Live-A-Live followed shortly after and sold over 500,000 units over the course of two months. Meanwhile, DQ3 will undoubtedly do very well, too, carried primarily by its in-built audience in Japan.

However, early signs point to Octopath Traveler 2 not doing quite as well as the first game in Japan, and the general consensus appears to be that it will not have the long tail its predecessor did globally, either. My belief is that this is almost entirely to do with the fact that Octopath Traveler 2 doesn't have the "novelty" or "hook" of the other HD-2D games before it. It's an excellent sequel by all accounts, but one that is fairly by-the-numbers and the fourth HD-2D game to be announced in a relatively short span of time.
Some have theorized that Square didn't market the game well enough, but I would contend it has seen sufficient marketing for what it is. It got a lengthy showing at TGS, has seen several character-driven trailers that do a good job of introducing its playable cast, was featured in Nintendo Direct, and received a demo prior to release just like every HD-2D game before it. OT2 is a game for an audience that is very much in tune with games/RPGs, and I don't believe a larger marketing budget would make much of a difference to its sales. Instead, I believe the lack of a clear and novel hook will be the primary factor in any drop-off in sales from OT1.
WHERE TO GO FROM HERE?
Regardless of one's thoughts on why OT2 may not do as well as its predecessor, there is a more interesting discussion to be had here—what Square Enix will do with its HD-2D line from here on out. If HD-2D is to become a staple of Square's portfolio, they'll need to chart an effective roadmap out for the next 4-5 years.
In light of Octopath Traveler 2's performance, I would contend that whatever comes next (after DQ3) either needs to be:
a) Another novel offering, similar to OT1 or Triangle Strategy
or
b) A remake of another beloved game that is guaranteed to be a hit
Keep a few things in mind as we get into this discussion:
- Judging by Asano's remarks about how ActRaiser was near the top of their HD-2D list, Final Fantasy appears to be off limits, so the chances of FF1-6 or FF Tactics seeing HD-2D remakes are fairly low.
- Square recently put out a survey in Japan asking fans what games they would like to see receive the HD-2D treatment next, and specified that they didn't need to limit their answers to Square Enix games. That means other companies' games could be up for grabs.
I have a thought or two of my own about what the best course of action for the future of HD-2D is, but before I get into my own thoughts, I'd like other folks to contribute theirs, and what they feel the next 4-5 years of HD-2D games need to look like.
What does the game that comes after DQ3 need to be? What about the game after that? And is there a way to keep HD-2D viable for several years, or will the novelty of it wear off permanently after a point?
My only request is, let's try to approach this from a realistic (creative and financial) standpoint and keep the discussion as platform-agnostic as possible.
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