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When do you expect the Nintendo Switch to cross 160 million and outsell the PS2?

When do you expect the Nintendo Switch to cross 160 million and outsell the PS2?

  • By the end of 2025

  • Around the middle of 2026

  • By the end of 2026

  • Around the middle of 2027

  • By the end of 2027

  • 2028 or later

  • Never

Results are only viewable after voting.
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The Switch recently became only the third system in history to cross 150 million units sold. The two systems ahead of it on the all time rankings are the Nintendo DS and the PS2.

The Nintendo DS is at 154 million units sold and change; it is guaranteed to be toppled by the Switch within the next few months, at worst by this Holiday season. However, the PS2 is at 160 million units sold, a 10 million unit lead over the current Switch.

As of right now, the Switch is selling about 9-11 million units per calendar year (as of December 31, 2024). That pace was already decreasing as the Switch grew older, and rumblings of a successor grew, but with the Switch 2 officially announced, and Nintendo's support for the Switch winding down (at least in terms of big movers), that pace is presumably going to decline even further.

Now, even the 3DS managed to sell 10 million units after Nintendo released the Switch; and the 3DS was a lot less healthy as a platform, with a lot less momentum on its side, than the Switch ever was or remains. So it theoretically shouldn't be difficult for the Switch to catch up to the PS2 - particularly since Nintendo still has several cards, such as an official price drop, aggressive bundling, or even new revisions, still left to play. On the other hand, it is possible Nintendo chooses to shift internal manufacturing resources as much towards the Switch 2 as possible – we already know there are reports of Nintendo wanting to have very high levels of Switch 2 stock from the get go. In that case, it is possible Switch 1 supply gets strangled, and that inadvertently cuts off its legs (something similar happened with the PS4 and PS5).

So: when, if ever, do you expect the Switch 1 to cross 160 million units sold and become the best selling platform in history?
 
Guaranteed. By end of 2025, or the latest by the end of the fiscal year/end of March 2026.

It's a done deal. Nintendo will claim the crown.
 
I’m being cautious and predicting that Switch hardware will drop a lot this year after Switch 2 is out.

So I’m thinking 7 million Switches sold this year. And then 5 million sold next year.

So by the end of 2026, it’ll have crossed it.
 
I think by spring 2026, maybe summer.

They'll be 152m+ this FY, 159m+ next, and then skirt over the line just after.

Will continue to trickle in around 165m. I used to think it would go father but I also thought Nintendo would rebrand and reposition NSW1 as their family/kids/casual offering to sit alongside the "core" Switch 2 but now it feels like they'll push ahead for a swifter transition.
 
I´m Trying to think an scenario where the switch reach the 160 millon mark. However i think i need to see more to give an proper answer. Maybe a price drop for the switch lite could help, but i don´t think Nintendo care for sold number.
 
Difficult to say for sure without knowing how aggressive Nintendo will be with Switch 1 price cuts/bundles. I put end of 2026 to be safe.
 
Nintendo Switch 1 needs to sell plus 9 million units, but I do not have any hope it accomplishes this in 2025 without price cut.

All depends on a price cut after (or together with) Nintendo Switch 2 release. No price cut? Okay, but it depends on a MSRP of NSW2.
 
I'm going with "it'll drag itself over the finish line by one arm mid-2027" as my guess, but that's based on the idea that Nintendo essentially stops pushing the Switch after the successor launches.

However...I'm not entirely convinced that Nintendo will stop pushing the Switch when the successor launches. I keep having this suspicion that they might keep one of the Switch models in active promotion for a couple years to fill a similar niche that the Switch Lite did for the Switch - a lower-priced entry point into the ecosystem for people who aren't yet sure if they want to become a gamer, with the risk-mitigating reassurance of knowing that if you choose to upgrade to the more premium system later, all the games you bought for your budget model would still be playable on the new one.

If we find out that's what's happening, I'd revise my guess to "it'll stroll nonchalantly across the finish line mid-2026."
 
I'm thinking sometime in 2027. Maybe it will just barely cross 160m at the end of 2026, but I feel like it should get to 161m to definitively pass PS2, which I see happening in 2027.
 
Middle-late 2026 is my guess, but I don't really have a strong feeling about it. Early 2027 by the latest I would think.
 
Switch 1 is ending this FY with ~152 millions.

They will probably shipped another +10 millions between FY2025/26 to 2026/27 so by late March 2027, Switch 1 shipments will be +162 millions.

So thats when most probably it will outsell PS2
 
I selected end of 2026 although I can see it happening sooner (or later) than that. I think the key is to position Switch as a cheap gaming alternative by dropping the price (a card Nintendo has yet to play), creating bundles, and introducing a new Players Choice line of discounted Switch hits will get the job done.
 
I choose end of 2027 for safety haha. It will all depends on Ninty themselves if they still want to keep producing Switch 1 or even make more different model of Switch 1 there lol.
 
I voted "never" based off Kit Ellis saying he doesn't think nintendo would care about chasing down PS2. I think they need to make an effort to get there and it sounds like they won't prioritise it. I hope I'm wrong
 
nobleredone said:
I voted "never" based off Kit Ellis saying he doesn't think nintendo would care about chasing down PS2. I think they need to make an effort to get there and it sounds like they won't prioritise it. I hope I'm wrong
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Maybe an unpopular opinion but I agree with this. Nintendo could've easily pushed the DS past the PS2's then 155m, but they decided to prioritize the 3DS instead. I wouldn't be shocked if Nintendo goes for another hard transition to get more people onto Switch 2.
 
JavelinR said:
Maybe an unpopular opinion but I agree with this. Nintendo could've easily pushed the DS past the PS2's then 155m, but they decided to prioritize the 3DS instead. I wouldn't be shocked if Nintendo goes for another hard transition to get more people onto Switch 2.
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Nintendo doesn't care about sales records, but they do care about providing a cheap entry point to their ecosystem. So I believe that they will keep the Switch 1 around for two years.
 
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JavelinR said:
Maybe an unpopular opinion but I agree with this. Nintendo could've easily pushed the DS past the PS2's then 155m, but they decided to prioritize the 3DS instead. I wouldn't be shocked if Nintendo goes for another hard transition to get more people onto Switch 2.
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The issue with posters saying this (you aren't the only one) is that it completely ignores how Nintendo "prioritized" 3DS. The answer is it received a major price cut putting it in direct competition with DS. It was fully backward compatible and the same price. What's the likelihood of Switch 2 pulling that off? I agree, Nintendo would like to but I'm not sure Nintendo could even come close ($399.99). Switch might very well be saved by today's economy. It even has a holiday game now in ZA.
 
If the S2 underperforms like the 3DS, Nintendo will do to the Switch what they did to the DS, I agree.

But even then, they shipped over* 7.5M DS systems after the 3DS launch. If they only ship 2.5M in H1 CY25 and that same 7.5M afterwards, the Switch would still end up on 160.86M, with almost 1M ahead.

* Nintendo shipped 1.83M DS in the quarter 3DS released, but we don't know how much of that was pre and post-launch.
 
Based on the Game Freak leak, I feel like Gen 10 might be released for both NS1 & NS2, so with that in mind, I can see NS1 hardware not being discontinued until right before Holiday 2028 (like maybe around September). You'd have Gen 10 for Holiday 2026 and then DLC for 2027. Going all the way to 2028, I can definitely see NS1 passing PS2. Even discontinuing in 2027 can lead to it passing NS1.

Also helps that Champions is NS1 & mobile, and doesn't even have a launch year yet (though I'd imagine it will be no later than 2027).
 
I think people thinking about price cuts for the main units haven't been paying attention to tech having problems getting prices cut from 2017 onward. Even applying to gaming we saw several hardware never get price cuts because of low margins.

Considering how long it's been there's probably a reason why Nintendo is still not going for a major cut as would be tradition years back.
 
Woost Jeffy said:
I think people thinking about price cuts for the main units haven't been paying attention to tech having problems getting prices cut from 2017 onward. Even applying to gaming we saw several hardware never get price cuts because of low margins.

Considering how long it's been there's probably a reason why Nintendo is still not going for a major cut as would be tradition years back.
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Only way I can see them doing a price cut is if NS2 comes in at $400 because it makes sense to me for NS2 to cost $100 more than the highest priced NS1 model. I've felt that NS2 will be at least $450 and I wouldn't be surprised if it is $500. When NS1 released, it was $300, which was basically the same price as PS4 & Xbox One (actually, with holiday deals, you could find the PS4 & Xbox One for lower prices than that!), so even if NS2 is weaker than PS5, I can still see it being priced similarly.
 
fiendcode said:
The DS sunset was fast tracked due to piracy killing the software market. Switch won't be in that position.
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On the opposite hand. Switch 1 probably will be kept alive far longer because NSO users means non stop kaching for the company.

So i can see Ninty keep Switch 1 alive to 11 or 12 years and then sunset them forever.
 
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