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What will perform better on Switch - Nier Automata or Persona 5 Royal?

What will perform better on Switch?

  • Total voters
    66
Phantom Thief

Phantom Thief

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All of a sudden, the Switch is getting not one but two fan favorite, extremely popular, critically acclaimed and commercially breakout JRPG hits with Persona 5 Royal and Nier Automata - both games that until just a few hours ago could very legitimately have been argued to never be coming to the platform. But now, here we are. Both are coming to Switch. What's more, both are coming to Switch within very literally weeks of each other.

Now the question is, which will do better on Switch, and why?

I realize this question may be impossible to ever answer precisely - unfortunately I don't think the kinds of sales breakdowns we would need to determine that will ever be available. However, using sales charts and reports from wherever we do get them, it should be possible to at least estimate what ends up coming out ahead. All of which is to say, I can imagine we will get enough of an idea of what came out ahead to make this comparison fun.

So with that out of the way, let's look at some facts:

Persona 5:
  • Sold 5 million units globally as of last count (across vanilla and Royal versions, on PS3 and PS4)
  • Very literally the most requested Switch port of all time
  • The highest rated JRPG of all time, and huge critical acclaim and prestige
  • Nintendo fanbase has familiarity with Persona owing to Joker's Smash Bros. appearance, and Persona spin-offs on Switch and 3DS (plus the aforementioned "port begging")
  • JRPGs, anime styled games, turn based games, and Atlus games all have an established big audience on the Switch
  • Long turn-based JRPG means technical compromises won't matter as much relative to the draws of portability
  • Comes with all previous content included
  • Launching next to ports for other platforms too, which may feasibly split sales or draw attention
  • Full priced release, for a late release, could be a big deterrent for many
NieR Automata:
  • Sold 6.5 million units globally as of last count (across PS4, PC, and Xbox One releases)
  • Extremely critically acclaimed
  • Switch port has been requested for years
  • Budget priced release
  • Comes with all previous content included
  • Launching by itself with no other ports to draw attention from it
  • However, it is also launching years after it has been available on every other system
  • IP relatively less familiar to Nintendo install base
  • Action based gameplay means the technical compromises may stand out more compared to with Persona
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So, with all that considered - which do you expect to sell more?

Some numbers, if it helps (please note in all cases, I went with the tweet with the highest engagements I could find to represent the maximum potential interest):

Nintendo Tweet for Nier Engagements:

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Nintendo Tweet for Persona Engagement:

Screen_Shot_2022-06-28_at_23.37.06.png


Official Square Enix Nier Announcement Tweet Engagement:

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Official Atlus Persona Switch Announcement Tweet Engagement:

Screen_Shot_2022-06-28_at_23.38.47.png


Lastly, current YouTube views:

Screen_Shot_2022-06-28_at_23.44.02.png

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Alright everyone: with this in mind, what do you think does better on Switch, and why?
 
Probably Persona. It's ilk is just more popular than Nier and it's contemporaries (Bayo and Astral Chain)
 
Nice OP, very high effort. But I don't see this being much of a competition. Nier has already sold a lot of its copies on other platforms while Persona is just newly releasing on a bunch of new systems so I expect that Persona 5 will have a lot more to gain in terms of sales compared to a game that has already much more widely available, which is why I think there is so much more social media hype for Persona going to more platforms. I wouldn't be surprised if Persona 5 ended up selling 1.5-2x Nier on Switch alone, and with the PC and Xbox release it could even pass Nier in total sales just due to how many more users will finally be able to experience the game.
 
TheSilentWombat said:
Nice OP, very high effort. But I don't see this being much of a competition. Nier has already sold a lot of its copies on other platforms while Persona is just newly releasing on a bunch of new systems so I expect that Persona 5 will have a lot more to gain in terms of sales compared to a game that has already much more widely available, which is why I think there is so much more social media hype for Persona going to more platforms. I wouldn't be surprised if Persona 5 ended up selling 1.5-2x Nier on Switch alone, and with the PC and Xbox release it could even pass Nier in total sales just due to how many more users will finally be able to experience the game.
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Thank you so much!

And yes, I personally agree that, all else being equal, P5 is the more popular and bigger game than Nier Automata. We just get to see that in action now for the first time lol.
 
Definitely glad both will be on Switch this year. Persona 5 is a lot better known than NieR, even my sister has heard of Persona and she hardly knows anything about JRPGs (she's seen me play both JRPGs and ARPGs), and the Persona series has been highly requested to come to Nintendo consoles for more than a decade. I think both do at minimum respectable numbers for late ports. I'll probably let you guys know eventually which game that I enjoyed better.
 
Phantom Thief said:
Thank you so much!

And yes, I personally agree that, all else being equal, P5 is the more popular and bigger game than Nier Automata. We just get to see that in action now for the first time lol.
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Yeah, I'm excited to see Persona 5 without its training weights lol. I actually think it's pretty likely that Royal will have the surplus of its sales on non-PS platforms after this release which will be an interesting position for a Persona game to be in. People have been asking for this game on other platforms for so long that I think that it will really explode now that it's more widely available. That there just isn't that same demand for Nier.
 
TheSilentWombat said:
Yeah, I'm excited to see Persona 5 without its training weights lol. I actually think it's pretty likely that Royal will have the surplus of its sales on non-PS platforms after this release which will be an interesting position for a Persona game to be in. People have been asking for this game on other platforms for so long that I think that it will really explode now that it's more widely available. That there just isn't that same demand for Nier.
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Steam + Switch + Xbox would have to outsell the 1.8 million total for PS4; it’s not unlikely, so I can actually see it (I know there’s a PS5 version too but I assume it’s actually the lowest selling of these new ones since P5R is already on PlayStation at this point).

That would be interesting indeed if it happens.
 
I think Persona is the pretty clear cut winner at least by the metrics posted, but the OP is very well put together. The only additional argument I would make is that if you want to highlight the familiarity of Nintendo Switch owners with Persona via Smash, Strikers, etc. it would only be fair to highlight the same with the PG audience between Bayo and Astral Chain. I think that would be the bigger draw than the IP itself.
 
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I expect Persona 5 to sell better to the Switch audience, but I think part of my expectation is due to the specific circles in which I talk about games. The idea that Persona is more popular than Nier is patently false; across two releases combined, it's still sold less than Nier Automata. It's a much more popular subject of conversation on certain areas of the internet, though!
 
I imagine Nier will do some 1M+ copies whereas Persona will probably end up squeaking past 1.5M, at the very least.
 
I actually think it will be Nier. I think RPGs are getting too long and Persona 5 is a big offender on that front. This is especially relevant on the Switch which includes an audience looking for a handheld experience. Nier is a shorter, tighter game experience, and that is better for playing on the go.
 
Persona, because Switch players have been begging for it more than Nier
 
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