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What will perform better on Switch - Nier Automata or Persona 5 Royal?

What will perform better on Switch?


  • Total voters
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Phantom Thief

The Ghost of Tsushima
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All of a sudden, the Switch is getting not one but two fan favorite, extremely popular, critically acclaimed and commercially breakout JRPG hits with Persona 5 Royal and Nier Automata - both games that until just a few hours ago could very legitimately have been argued to never be coming to the platform. But now, here we are. Both are coming to Switch. What's more, both are coming to Switch within very literally weeks of each other.

Now the question is, which will do better on Switch, and why?

I realize this question may be impossible to ever answer precisely - unfortunately I don't think the kinds of sales breakdowns we would need to determine that will ever be available. However, using sales charts and reports from wherever we do get them, it should be possible to at least estimate what ends up coming out ahead. All of which is to say, I can imagine we will get enough of an idea of what came out ahead to make this comparison fun.

So with that out of the way, let's look at some facts:

Persona 5:
  • Sold 5 million units globally as of last count (across vanilla and Royal versions, on PS3 and PS4)
  • Very literally the most requested Switch port of all time
  • The highest rated JRPG of all time, and huge critical acclaim and prestige
  • Nintendo fanbase has familiarity with Persona owing to Joker's Smash Bros. appearance, and Persona spin-offs on Switch and 3DS (plus the aforementioned "port begging")
  • JRPGs, anime styled games, turn based games, and Atlus games all have an established big audience on the Switch
  • Long turn-based JRPG means technical compromises won't matter as much relative to the draws of portability
  • Comes with all previous content included
  • Launching next to ports for other platforms too, which may feasibly split sales or draw attention
  • Full priced release, for a late release, could be a big deterrent for many
NieR Automata:
  • Sold 6.5 million units globally as of last count (across PS4, PC, and Xbox One releases)
  • Extremely critically acclaimed
  • Switch port has been requested for years
  • Budget priced release
  • Comes with all previous content included
  • Launching by itself with no other ports to draw attention from it
  • However, it is also launching years after it has been available on every other system
  • IP relatively less familiar to Nintendo install base
  • Action based gameplay means the technical compromises may stand out more compared to with Persona
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So, with all that considered - which do you expect to sell more?

Some numbers, if it helps (please note in all cases, I went with the tweet with the highest engagements I could find to represent the maximum potential interest):

Nintendo Tweet for Nier Engagements:

Screen_Shot_2022-06-28_at_23.36.52.png


Nintendo Tweet for Persona Engagement:

Screen_Shot_2022-06-28_at_23.37.06.png


Official Square Enix Nier Announcement Tweet Engagement:

unknown.png


Official Atlus Persona Switch Announcement Tweet Engagement:

Screen_Shot_2022-06-28_at_23.38.47.png


Lastly, current YouTube views:

Screen_Shot_2022-06-28_at_23.44.02.png

Screen_Shot_2022-06-28_at_23.44.32.png


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Alright everyone: with this in mind, what do you think does better on Switch, and why?
 
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