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What will do better - Octopath Traveler 2 or Forspoken?

Which will do better?

  • Total voters
    79
Phantom Thief

Phantom Thief

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I have pit Forspoken against pretty much every game imaginable on Install Base at this point, but I think the very first one, the original, comparison was Forspoken and Octopath Traveler (the original), and me asking if the former would be able to do as well as the latter.

Well, now we have a sequel to Octopath launching just a month after Forspoken is out, and I think this is a fair question to ask, given that both are Square Enix games getting a reasonably similar amount of support from the publisher: what do you think will do better, Octopath Traveler 2 or Forspokenb?

OCTOPATH TRAVELER 2:
+ Sequel to a well received, bestselling game
+ Launching simultaneously on multiple platforms (covering all the best ecosystems for JRPGs)
+ General reception to marketing has been positive
+ HD2D line of games has done well without exception
- Lacks the big platform holder marketing push that an exclusivity arrangement would get it (and that Octopath 1 and Forspoken both benefit from)
- The original game was a bit divisive among some players, so high sales for it don't necessarily translate into interest for the sequel
- 2D turn based RPGs don't have a ceiling as high as an open world action RPG does

FORSPOKEN:
+ It's an open world action RPG, which is unquestionably the most popular genre at the moment
+ Significantly higher budget and production values
+ Exclusivity marketing push
+ Diverse representation increases potential appeal than the genre traditionally has had
- It costs more than Octopath, and even maintains absurd pricing on PC
- It is exclusive to PS5 and PC (missing two of the biggest platforms for JRPGs at the moment in Switch and PS4)
- Reception to its marketing (including trailers and demo) has been mixed
 
I'm gonna say Forspoken in opening and tail. but Octopath Traveler 2 will always be in the rearview reminding Forspoken that it's too slow for the money dumped into it
 
Octopath for both, after the demo (only watched, didn't play) I'm expecting Forspoken to be a massive bomb.
 
I'd expect lifetime for Octopath but only like few years down the road. Forspoken should hit harder (like 700k in first month) and crawl to ~1.5 million by 2 years but, will essentially stop there. Meanwhile, I'd expect Octopath to do worse than the original but still hit 500k by the end of March and take a long time with sales and WoM to move 1.5 million 3 or so years after launch.
 
Made a mistake and somehow also picked Forspoken for launch when I wanted to pick OT 2 for both. After the demo I lost any kind of hope I had for Forspoken.
 
Forspoken.

I dont think OT2 its going to do as well as the first, that game released in the right time and in the right place, HD-2D are not as hot like they were years ago too.

Forspoken its an open world game, there is a lot of appeal for casual audience, most of have gameplay videos and trailers have a lot of views, its going to sell easily 3-4M lifetime
 
I think Octopath Traveler II is going to sell over 2M lifetime, maybe even 2.5M. It's releasing on every platform that JRPGs sell well on and should have no problem hitting 1M soon after launch. Triangle Strategy hit 800k after two weeks. I don't see why OT2 shouldn't do more in that timeframe. It's marketing hasn't been weak thus far.
With good wom it's legs will most likely be decent and bring it to 2M after a few years.

Forspoken doesn't seem to have a particularly good reception. I expect it to sell less than 1M after one month. Unless it's price drops quickly or it goes on sub $30 sales regularly over the years I don't see it reaching something like 3M lifetime.
Unless of course it somehow ends up being great with very good general reception. But that demo doesn't inspire confidence.
 
There are so many HD-2D JRPG nowadays, I doubt OT2 will sell more than 3M lifetime. Forespoken's budget alone will push it past that with sales.
 
Forspoken looks cool, which is all you need to sell to the casual market regardless of quality. It will sell much better than OT2
 
Reaction to Forspoken seems mixed at best to me, but maybe it's better outside of my circles. Thought it looked alright but didn't bother checking out the demo. I don't see Octopath repeating the success of the first (I thought it was an absolute chore to play through and I know I'm not alone on that sentiment), but probably will still do quite well overall especially for its price tag, so I'm sure SE will be more satisfied with that one.

Going to go with forspoken at launch, octopath overall.
 
It almost feels too easy to pick Octopath here. If Forspoken pulls in good reviews and has a great wom, then I can see Forespoken doing better as far as lifetime sales are concerned.
 
Octopath Traveller 2 is going to destroy Forspoken. OT2 should manage at least 2 million LTD (though probably won't quite match the original; especially without the push that comes from being an early lifecycle Switch exclusive this time around), while Forspoken will probably not even sell 1 million LTD.

Forspoken's competition is Triangle Strategy, not Octopath. And that is a battle that Forspoken is going to lose.
 
OT2 meant to be the second coming of Jesus.

Forspoken is I don't know, didn't even pre order it.
 
With the machine behind Forspoken it would have to underperform quite a bit to not outsell OT2.
At the same time reception so far has been kinda mid, so yeah if the reviews are too negative its gonna have a lackluster launch - the question is if and how long SE would be willing to provide it with updates and content.
 
Seeing now that many major review outlets aren't getting review codes for Forspoken which probably only furthers how much of a bomb this will be
 
I wouldn't be shocked if the PS5 version of Octopath 2 has better first week sales then the first week sales of Forespoken at this point.
 
Even with the poor Forspoken reviews, I don't think Octopath 2 will reach 3 million even with the simultaneous release on everything. The marketing compared to the first has just barely been there and I don't see this doing too much on playstation platforms honestly. I think what we might see is pretty similar results from both of them with a lifetime sales somewhere around 2 million. Of course that would be a success for Octopath while probably a huge disappointment for Forspoken.
 
Flightlessfancies said:
Even with the poor Forspoken reviews, I don't think Octopath 2 will reach 3 million even with the simultaneous release on everything. The marketing compared to the first has just barely been there and I don't see this doing too much on playstation platforms honestly. I think what we might see is pretty similar results from both of them with a lifetime sales somewhere around 2 million. Of course that would be a success for Octopath while probably a huge disappointment for Forspoken.
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Agree with this tbh. It'll be OT1 >> OT2 >= Forspoken
 
If this thread was about review scores I'd say without a single drop of doubt that OT2 will review higher than Forspoken.

Though I don't know about sales. Reception aside, Forspoken is a big, open world game, and it has a more mainstream appeal than a game like OT2.
 
Forspoken didn't rank in the Steam Top 10 best-sellers during its launch week, despite launching on a Tuesday and being priced at $70.
 
Based on the NPD report and the UK report for Jan maybe we should have made this Forspoken vs. Fire Emblem lol

In the actual comparison though, the recent Octopath 2 demo released seems to have a lot of positive feedback even for those that weren't sold on the first. Whether that will help get it over the hump that is next to no Square markering we'll have to see. The bar is... certainly looking a lot lower than even I was expecting. Still think they might be on even ground when all is said and done.
 
Flightlessfancies said:
Based on the NPD report and the UK report for Jan maybe we should have made this Forspoken vs. Fire Emblem lol

In the actual comparison though, the recent Octopath 2 demo released seems to have a lot of positive feedback even for those that weren't sold on the first. Whether that will help get it over the hump that is next to no Square markering we'll have to see. The bar is... certainly looking a lot lower than even I was expecting. Still think they might be on even ground when all is said and done.
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The gap between FE and Forspoken is actually quite large.
FE is missing digital while Forspoken is also the more expensive game (revenue based charts).

Now add in Japan and co. and it the gap grows even more.
 
In light of OT2 selling 1 million and no updates on Forespoken I think we could call this one for OT2 on both fronts.

Just goes to show that flashy graphics + open world doesn't mean guarantee 4 millions sales
 
LMAO

Though to be fair to Forspoken, OT2's install base was way bigger.

Both are dissapointments in a way, the former because, well, you all know, and the latter because it will never reach the heights of its predecessor, even when that game was exclusive to a single platform.
 
BTB123 said:
I think Octopath Traveler II is going to sell over 2M lifetime, maybe even 2.5M. It's releasing on every platform that JRPGs sell well on and should have no problem hitting 1M soon after launch. Triangle Strategy hit 800k after two weeks. I don't see why OT2 shouldn't do more in that timeframe. It's marketing hasn't been weak thus far.
With good wom it's legs will most likely be decent and bring it to 2M after a few years.

Forspoken doesn't seem to have a particularly good reception. I expect it to sell less than 1M after one month. Unless it's price drops quickly or it goes on sub $30 sales regularly over the years I don't see it reaching something like 3M lifetime.
Unless of course it somehow ends up being great with very good general reception. But that demo doesn't inspire confidence.
Click to expand...
So 2M for OT2 is not very likely anymore, but you never know. It has years of sales ahead of it and good wom. I just hope SE will care to tell us that OT2 hit 2M sales more than three years after launch.

Forspoken likely won't ever even reach 1M sales.
So basically OT2 wins.
 
I have no idea what forspoken sold, but SE is not going to announce 1 million sales for a game that probably need 2-3 million just to make their money back.

An absence of evidence isn’t necessarily evidence of absence or however the saying goes.
 
Well, the question of the thread is "What will do better" not "What will sell better" 😛. Octopath most certainly won in that regard.
 
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