What is the true sales potential of Pokémon Legends: Arceus ?
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For ORAS it's impossible.
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550k for LGPE from April to September, it'll get to 15m.
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All new mainline duos sold over 15M. Only third versions and remakes didn't.
I think it can be anything between 12 and 20M.
Legs as far as the eye can see on this one.
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But BOTW sold so much thanks to its fantastic legs. It is considered one of the best games ever made and 5 years after launch the next 3d zelda hasn't come along yet. This game will not be received as well as BOTW, we can say that for a fact already. It could be very highly regarded and have great legs but still won't be anywhere close to BOTW level. And there will be another big pokemon game within 2 years of this you'd imagine.
That being said, this game will obviously be huge. I think this will go for ~15M and voted for the over because I think its slightly more likely to go over than under. Wouldn't be surprised with anywhere between 13-18M for this.
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Even though I picked between 12-15M (being conservative), I’m really saying anything between 12-20M as well.
botw had a good bit of "play your own way", which is what makes some open world games more popular than others, I think. will Legends have this? we don't know, still. at least things like shiny hunting will be more interesting, should it still be in there. I've seen people try to figure out how to nuzlocke this, though I think that's futile. nuzlocke was born out of mechanics that aren't in this, and keeping the spirit of it looks to be very difficult now there aren't random pokemon
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Catch the first mon you see in the wild, done
but what if you see 3?
that said, I'm more interested in how shiny hunt streams will go. and size queening streams. "shiny magikarp! oh it's too small"
What? Lol
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You think this game has any chance of being considered a better game than BOTW?
Maybe not, but that doesn't mean it's a bad game already like you said.
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Oh I think you misunderstood my message, I'm just saying we know there's no way it will be as well received as BOTW and it will most likely be quite a way off as well.
True, but Animal Crossing not being considered one of the best games ever didn't stop it from blowing by BOTW sales. I was intentionally being overly bullish on my Pokemon prediction anyway as I just wanted to be the highest bidder
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Closest one to you then, I doubt they could be at the exact same distance, and even then, they move, so one of them could spot you first and viceversa
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Indeed but New Horizons was quite the special case, I suppose you're saying if it happened with NH it can happen here too, but I really think that was lightning in a bottle. For games to massively outperform expectations you usually need fantastic WoM like with BOTW, and even New Horizons was rated and regarded very highly, probably better than this game will be if we're being realistic. I would be quite amazed if this game gets close to 90 on Opencritic and is universally liked by audiences. If it does pull that off then hats off to you because you might be right.True, but Animal Crossing not being considered one of the best games ever didn't stop it from blowing by BOTW sales. I was intentionally being overly bullish on my Pokemon prediction anyway as I just wanted to be the highest bidder
New Horizons also launched ~7 years after New Leaf and was thus extremely highly anticipated due to the sheer wait - and that's before taking the spring 2020 Covid lockdown boost into account.
Pokemon Legends is not in that same situation. No ~7 year gap between new entries, no Covid lockdown boost (Omicron notwithstanding), and very likely inferior WoM (even if people generally enjoy it overall).
Pokemon Legends is not in that same situation. No ~7 year gap between new entries, no Covid lockdown boost (Omicron notwithstanding), and very likely inferior WoM (even if people generally enjoy it overall).
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If Pokemon has shown anything is that critical reception and the opinions of people on the internet don't necessarily reflect the public enjoyment and purchasing of the games. I think the biggest challenge for Legends Arceus is providing a fresh twist on the super popular formula without removing what makes it so popular. I think a well-executed twist on traditional Pokemon could do very well with the existing fanbase and as long as it is a new experience I think it will have very good WOM. Most Pokemon fans just want a fun Pokemon adventure and if Legends Arceus is that I think it will do quite well.
It's also worth noting that historically speaking, Pokemon is larger IP than AC. If it can capture the imagination of the gaming public in a way that other games in the franchise couldn't, its sales potential may be astronomical.
Although almost completely different and incomparable in every possible way, look no further than Pokemon Go to see the global reach of the franchise.
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I think the first data we're going to get will be 'disappointing' from the UK (basically it'll open lower than Let's Go and therefore obviously BD/SP and S&S) but it'll end up selling great in the end and its opening elsewhere will be stronger. Albeit here in the U.K. I saw an ad for it at HT in the Premier League games on Amazon a couple of weeks ago so it'll clearly get a lot of marketing, though the fact that it has few new Pokemon and isn't a new gen will mean it won't come close to S&S's numbers and what gen 9 will sell.
I think it'll open at around 100k in the UK which is still good (GoW 2018 sold around that much for example IIRC) and its overall sales will depend on how good it is and whether or not people on the fence about the new concept are eventually convinced.
I think it will sell 14 million or so in the end. Not the worst selling Pokemon RPGs ever not even close but yeah half of S&S maybe. Good sales in a good year for the Switch.
I think it'll open at around 100k in the UK which is still good (GoW 2018 sold around that much for example IIRC) and its overall sales will depend on how good it is and whether or not people on the fence about the new concept are eventually convinced.
I think it will sell 14 million or so in the end. Not the worst selling Pokemon RPGs ever not even close but yeah half of S&S maybe. Good sales in a good year for the Switch.
Gamefreak really needs to put out a highly polished quality game. Its potential is astronomical but Gamefreak's lack of experience as well as strict deadlines will probably ensure we don't get anything like that (unless they make multiple teams). Imagine if Pokemon was handled internally by Nintendo.
As for the Thread: I'd say 20M+. 14M-17M with bad WOM.
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The trailer gives me both BOTW and MH vibes. The BOTW part is definitely intentional (piano notes, scenery shots, other things), but so is the MH part imo. So as far as audiences, they are aiming to cast a wide net imo. It will depend on the actual game of course as to whether it will indeed be able to reach a significant part of each of these audiences (Pokemon, BOTW, MH) well enough. if it will... game will sell A LOT But it remains to be seen.
GF already has multiple teams. this game is probably by the side that made Let's Go. we'll have to wait and see who's directing this with the credits of course.
More than Lets Go. So around 13-14m if you ask me. The lack of coop/multiplayer factor is going to be big reason for the sales to not touch 15m
I don’t think lack of experience is the issue nor the amount of people but as you said strict deadlines will continue to thwart the dream Pokémon came some want.
Why else do you think Assasin’s Creed moved off a yearly cycle. Call of Duty is struggling to maintain its yearly schedule. Even yearly sport franchises have issues.
I also think wom is largely an over blown issue unless they pull a Cyberpunk 2077. If it gets updated with qualitative features and content then legs should be really good.
Not sure if this has already been mentioned in the thread but returning players burnt out by the franchise's current state is a factor at play here. I've already heard lots of people online say this is the first time they're buying a mainline Pokémon game since the DS/3DS era having taken refuge in spin-offs during the last couple of years, myself included. Some of you guys have pointed out that having it be a brand new take on the formula will scare off a chunk of the userbase but I don't think it will be a significant portion, let alone sizeable enough to offset the surge of fans willing to give Pokémon another shot... at least at launch. Longevity and saturation is my concern with this game as I think the more casual, non-diehard audiences will still default to Sword and Shield in the long run for being the safer, more traditional experience. They're trying something new and it shows, even if it's left to be seen if GameFreak manages to deliver beyond experimentation and novel concepts.
Launch week has the potential to be the biggest worldwide Switch launch ever even despite it being January, but I'm going to play it safe and say it's ending up second biggest launch behind Animal Crossing and above Sword and Shield. As I mentioned I don't think its legs will be as good as Sword and Shield's however. I'm going with 16 million sales for 2022, lifetime is tough to predict even for games that are already out but just to give a number I'll say 19 million. It's definitely going to outperform both LGPE and BDSP by a decent margin.
Launch week has the potential to be the biggest worldwide Switch launch ever even despite it being January, but I'm going to play it safe and say it's ending up second biggest launch behind Animal Crossing and above Sword and Shield. As I mentioned I don't think its legs will be as good as Sword and Shield's however. I'm going with 16 million sales for 2022, lifetime is tough to predict even for games that are already out but just to give a number I'll say 19 million. It's definitely going to outperform both LGPE and BDSP by a decent margin.
I'm not sure how one can reasonably measure how many folks are returning players. Especially when using internet discourse, which has shown to be a negligible amount of people as far as pokemon goes
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Let's go is already almost at 14m
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If that were a statistically relevant audience, spin offs would sell much, much better than they do.
I may very well be wrong, but I am getting the feeling that Arceus’s sales potential is being a bit over-hyped in this thread. While there is certainly a lot of hype in hardcore fan circles, I’m not seeing as much discussion on this game from more casual circles. Some of this may be due to this coming out right after a more “traditional” Pokémon game in BDSP, some may be due to the perception that this is a spin-off (regardless of what TPC’s branding may say), and some of this may just be due to an odd release date (January) that prevents this from being a go-to Christmas present at launch like most mainline Pokémon games.
I’m thinking that sales will be ~10M YTD and ~14M LTD.
I’m thinking that sales will be ~10M YTD and ~14M LTD.
I’d love to be wrong of course
But that’s what I mean - Pokémon games that are not strictly traditional have a history of selling significantly less. Regardless of whether Arceus is considered a “spin off” or not, it is undoubtedly a pretty big departure from series tradition and therefore may end up selling more like a spin off than a mainline game.
For the record, I still think it’ll sell better than pretty much all Pokémon spin-off, just not quite as much as the average mainline game.
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Let's Go was also called a spin-off a while ago. It is clear that Nintendo/TPC positions this as a mainline entry.
It does have some changes but that happened to several franchises in the past without issue or even with a lot of success (DQIX, BotW, GoW...).
It does have some changes but that happened to several franchises in the past without issue or even with a lot of success (DQIX, BotW, GoW...).
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Being different isn’t what scares people off established series. The changes have to be disliked for that to happen, and what Legends is doing is an evolution of things already well received in SWSH (openness, roaming Pokémon, memeable shenanigans with mons chasing you down, etc)
I voted over 20m previously and will stick with that prediction. At least in the 15m range in its first year and then legs beyond that.
it does remove some other well liked elements like pvp and gym battles. though that can be forgiven since this isn't a "primary game". I still think the openness is gonna win out here
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Sun and Moon did well without gyms and I’m still not convinced pvp battles are a huge factor for the mainstream audience
interestingly, the preview video isn't on the JP channel. but we did get a very good look at the gameplay loop. I can see this game having some longevity to it, akin to BotW. though how much there is that's of merit is another question. trading is also confirmed (again), but being a single game, I'm still not sold on its merit