What is the true sales potential of Pokémon Legends: Arceus ?

[Lelouch0612]

On January 28th 2022, Pokémon Legends: Arceus is going to release with the promise of a new take on the Pokémon formula. Developed by Game Freak, merely two months after another Sinnoh game with the 4G Remakes, the game is unlike any other mainline game and raises some good questions about its sales potential.

In order to pinpoint precisely its potential, let me sum up some key features of this upcoming game :

• New Pokémon (in a smaller number than for a new generation tho)
• New Map (old Sinnoh)
• Big explorable areas.
• New Battle System
• New take on the formula
• One SKU
• Sword/Shield remains the games for competitive play
• Non-Holiday release window

In Green, the positive aspects versus other mainline games, in Red the negative ones and the rest being neutral (will depend on how the game is received).


Also, here are the initial sales of the various mainline Pokémon games on Switch (~11 months) :

- Pokémon Let's Go Pikachu / Eevee : 11.28m
- Pokémon Sword / Shield : 19.02m


Of course, there is so much we don't know about the game yet. However, I would love to hear your thoughts on this. Do you believe Legends will sell akin to Sword/Shield ? BD/SP ? Let's Go ? Or something else entirely ?

 

[ILikeFeet]

really hard to say. I think 10M might be the upper bound

it's open world pokemon with new mons, which is a big selling point. that said, it'll show what exactly is appealing about the main games, I think.

 

[mokuroh]

My bet is around 12M-15M. Let's see.

 

[SoonyXboneUhh]

It will either sell well below 10m or will become a mega hit.
I don't think at all, that it will perform like a regular Pokémon.

So either a lot worse, or even better.

 

[WestEgg]

My gut feeling is that it will do well, but not by the standards of the main series, somewhere between 8-14 million. Though if reception turns out to be great, that could go up.

 

[Peleo]

POKEMON SALES

Blue = Original Version ; Yellow = Third Version ; Green = Remake

Some additional context. I think as far as Pokemons go it will be only behind Sword and Shield, between 18-20 was my bet.

I reckon it will appeal to a wider crowd beyond the traditional Pokemon fans, offsetting the fact it's a single SKU.

 

[ILikeFeet]

My bet is around 12M-15M. Let's see.

Hisuian Zorua should be crazy merchandisable

 

[zroid]

personally i think PLA is one of the most interesting games of the last few years to track sales of. The range of what's possible for it is just massive. Really excited to see what happens.

For now going to vote on a fairly mundane 10-12m

 

[VengefulMagus]

It's still too early to say for sure but I'm going with 15-18m. It's a new direction for the series and I think that will be welcomed after all these years, and I think they will use a lot of what they learn here for Gen 9.

 

[Kimbou]

PLA is going to be really interesting, it comes quite soon after BDSP after all, and tries a lot of new things, to which the reception seems to go both ways. In the end, it's still Pokémon, I do think it'll get to 15m+, but it's going to be fun to follow for sure.

 

[DarkDetective]

Pokémon Legends Arceus will do well with the faithful fans of the seris, but its lifetime potential depends on what The Pokémon Company plans for holiday 2022.

The release timing of Arceus is curious, to say the least: January for a Pokémon that has the potential to sell as well as a mainline game, only two months after the Diamond & Pearl remakes come out. To me, this indicates that we can expect another mainline series game in November 2022. Because think about it, if they didn't plan another holiday 2022 title, it would make more sense to wait with the release of Arceus until the holiday season. It would fill a gap between BDSP and the next mainline game in November 2023. So I rule out this situation.

So that means Arceus will be the newest Pokémon game for ~10 months, with added competition of BDSP. I consider this an experiment by The Pokémon Company to see how many fans would buy two mainline-like games in 1 year. There will be people who are only 'fan enough' for 1 game per year (or simply can afford 1 Pokémon game per year) and this is a way to find out how many fans are, and how many are willing to get more. After all, two 10M-sellers per year sell more copies than one 15M-seller per year.

Pokémon games traditionally sell the bulk of their lifetime sales in the launch holiday quarter, and while the DLCs and lack of new title extended the life of Sword & Shield, I wouldn't say that strategy was quite the success. However, that 'reliance' on the launch quarter means there could possibly room for two launches in the year, i.e. one during the holiday season and one afterwards. I would've guessed March for the second launch, so that January and February could be used for the marketing of the second product without interfering the messaging around the first launch during the holidays, but I'm sure TPC knows that they're doing.

My hypothesis is a lot of Pokémon fans will be able to buy both BDSP and Arceus, and due to its out-of-season launch, Arceus will be slightly less frontloaded. My prediction is both BDSP and Arceus will sell more than 13 million copies.

 

[Tbone5189]

Pokémon Legends Arceus will do well with the faithful fans of the seris, but its lifetime potential depends on what The Pokémon Company plans for holiday 2022.

The release timing of Arceus is curious, to say the least: January for a Pokémon that has the potential to sell as well as a mainline game, only two months after the Diamond & Pearl remakes come out. To me, this indicates that we can expect another mainline series game in November 2022. Because think about it, if they didn't plan another holiday 2022 title, it would make more sense to wait with the release of Arceus until the holiday season. It would fill a gap between BDSP and the next mainline game in November 2023. So I rule out this situation.

So that means Arceus will be the newest Pokémon game for ~10 months, with added competition of BDSP. I consider this an experiment by The Pokémon Company to see how many fans would buy two mainline-like games in 1 year. There will be people who are only 'fan enough' for 1 game per year (or simply can afford 1 Pokémon game per year) and this is a way to find out how many fans are, and how many are willing to get more. After all, two 10M-sellers per year sell more copies than one 15M-seller per year.

Pokémon games traditionally sell the bulk of their lifetime sales in the launch holiday quarter, and while the DLCs and lack of new title extended the life of Sword & Shield, I wouldn't say that strategy was quite the success. However, that 'reliance' on the launch quarter means there could possibly room for two launches in the year, i.e. one during the holiday season and one afterwards. I would've guessed March for the second launch, so that January and February could be used for the marketing of the second product without interfering the messaging around the first launch during the holidays, but I'm sure TPC knows that they're doing.

My hypothesis is a lot of Pokémon fans will be able to buy both BDSP and Arceus, and due to its out-of-season launch, Arceus will be slightly less frontloaded. My prediction is both BDSP and Arceus will sell more than 13 million copies.

Tbf it seemed to point out that BDSP would release back in sept (anniversary) and Legends for the holiday game. (COVID19)

For 2022 they could of do DLC like they did with SwSh. 2020 was skipped, 2022 could be as well. How I see it I think it’ll be like this...

2018: LGPE
2019: SwSh
2020: dlc
2021: BDSP
2022: LA (dlc holiday)
2023: Gen 9
2024: LG (Johto) (On NSW2)




...

 

[Abzeronow]

I think Arceus will do over 20 million lifetime WW. In 2022, I think it beats Let's Go by a healthy margin but doesn't quite get to Sword/Shield levels so 12-15 million that's closer to the 15 million part.

 

[DarkDetective]

Tbf it seemed to point out that BDSP would release back in sept (anniversary) and Legends for the holiday game. (COVID19)

For 2022 they could of do DLC like they did with SwSh. 2020 was skipped, 2022 could be as well. How I see it I think it’ll be like this...

2018: LGPE
2019: SwSh
2020: dlc
2021: BDSP
2022: LA (dlc holiday)
2023: Gen 9
2024: LG (Johto) (On NSW2)

I think it would've been stupid to let BDSP and Arceus share a holiday season with one in Sep and one in Nov/Dec. Glad they didn't do that.

I said I think Arceus will be released in January because they have another game planned for holiday 2022. Why wouldn't they wait until Q4 2022 with the release of Arceus if they don't have anything else lined-up for that slot? It would give BDSP more time to thrive, and it would mean Arceus is a newer game during the holidays, which matters because it means it's in the minds of kids and other people who rely on the holiday season for their big game purchase of the year; it means retailers don't need to spend shelf space on the game for a full year (which means they could decide to spend less shelf space on it during the holidays than if it were a newer game); it means the gap between Arceus and BDSP is only 2 months and the gap between Arceus and the next mainline Pokémon game is almost 2 years, which is just stupid imo.

Would like to hear your thoughts on this.

 

[Phantom Thief]

12-15 million is what I expect.
Great thread Lelouch!

 

[LoneRanger]

10-15 millions, it will greatly depend on mainly 2 things:

- how will both titles, Legends Arceus and Gen 4 Remakes, coexist in the near future.
- post launch support like free updates or a paid dlc expansion. Also, does TPC have something for 2022 holidays?

But if they have succes with PLA I think TPC has found a very good variety of Pokémon RPG titles that don’t overlap each other (3 games per generation; a main 3D semi-linear RPG, a 2D top view remake and an open world action RPG).

 

[Lord Azrael]

I think it will sell in the ballpark of a traditional mainline entry. Voted for 15-18m. Although I also thought it would hurt BDSP's sales prospects, but based on the numbers so far it might end up the other way around?

 

[Lelouch0612]

I voted 15-18m so a bit below what Sword/Shield achieved.

TPC strategy should prove very fruitful. By differentiating their offerings, they are adressing every part of the fanbase while trying to attrack newcommers with games like Let's Go or Legends.

I don't anticipate any scenario where Legends would sell comparatively with Let's Go. That game launched in 2018, the Switch and Pokémon userbase are far bigger now and in January 2022.

BD/SP excellent start is very promising (6m copies sold at launch) and bodes very well for Arceus. I am banking on an Expansion Pass so sales should be strong during the whole year.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

For the positive I would suggest adding that it has a multiplayer component to it. In some form.

Pokémon™ Legends: Arceus for Nintendo Switch - Nintendo Official Site

Get ready for a new kind of grand, Pokémon adventure in Pokémon™ Legends: Arceus, a brand-new game from Game Freak that blends action and exploration with the RPG roots of the Pokémon series. Embark on survey missions in the ancient Hisui region. Explore…

www.nintendo.com

 

[Lelouch0612]

For the positive I would suggest adding that it has a multiplayer component to it. In some form.

Pokémon™ Legends: Arceus for Nintendo Switch - Nintendo Official Site

Get ready for a new kind of grand, Pokémon adventure in Pokémon™ Legends: Arceus, a brand-new game from Game Freak that blends action and exploration with the RPG roots of the Pokémon series. Embark on survey missions in the ancient Hisui region. Explore…

www.nintendo.com

Yes but we don't know what it entails so far. It could be a positive, neutral or a negative.

 

[ILikeFeet]

For the positive I would suggest adding that it has a multiplayer component to it. In some form.

Pokémon™ Legends: Arceus for Nintendo Switch - Nintendo Official Site

Get ready for a new kind of grand, Pokémon adventure in Pokémon™ Legends: Arceus, a brand-new game from Game Freak that blends action and exploration with the RPG roots of the Pokémon series. Embark on survey missions in the ancient Hisui region. Explore…

www.nintendo.com

all we know is that it has trading.

 

[Chris1964]

I voted 15-18m so a bit below what Sword/Shield achieved

15-18m isn't a bit below Sword/Shield, it's a lot below.

 

[Lelouch0612]

15-18m isn't a bit below Sword/Shield, it's a lot below.

Talking for the end of the year. Sword/Shield sold 19.02m in its first 10.5 months in the market (as of September 2020). End of 2022 would be 11 months for Legends.

 

[MysticGon]

I don't want to bet against Pokemon but lack of multiplayer and dual versions make it an unusual release. I would have to compare to third version releases.

 

[mokuroh]

If I had to bet, I would expect Legends: Arceus to get at least one DLC pack in late 2022. In other words, I expect them to replicate SwSh's DLC model with the new game for the rest of 2022.

 

[BoktaiFan]

My gut says 12 million but it could surprise. Depends on word of mouth I think.

Although I feel like it's testing the waters for a more expansive game down the line.

 

[Tbone5189]

I think it would've been stupid to let BDSP and Arceus share a holiday season with one in Sep and one in Nov/Dec. Glad they didn't do that.

I said I think Arceus will be released in January because they have another game planned for holiday 2022. Why wouldn't they wait until Q4 2022 with the release of Arceus if they don't have anything else lined-up for that slot? It would give BDSP more time to thrive, and it would mean Arceus is a newer game during the holidays, which matters because it means it's in the minds of kids and other people who rely on the holiday season for their big game purchase of the year; it means retailers don't need to spend shelf space on the game for a full year (which means they could decide to spend less shelf space on it during the holidays than if it were a newer game); it means the gap between Arceus and BDSP is only 2 months and the gap between Arceus and the next mainline Pokémon game is almost 2 years, which is just stupid imo.

Would like to hear your thoughts on this.

First of all, I would love for a new mainline game to come out in 2022. If it does then we have a stacked 12 months of Pokémon games. That said....

Covid definitely pushed things back imo. Arceus coming out end of Jan would mean it came out on track without any delays imo. But forget Covid talk, The reason for the first time in Pokémon history for these games to coexist is because of the fact that all the games are very different. SwSh and BDSP represent New and Old for the franchise. SwSh longevity is backed up by both dlc and what it offers for its online experience (raids/etc). It’s also the go to Pokémon for competitive play. BDSP is now similar to that of 2D Zelda (3D Zelda is SwSh). It has its own set of Pokémon (Gen 1-4), which since this generation we haven’t had all the Pokémon created in a single game. I don’t expect this game to sell for long but it’ll still end up much better than let’s go which I may add is the “Casual” experience”

Lastly Legends Arceus represents “Change” with it being very close to Pokémon main games but with a new core experience. It is a semi open world game not seen before for the franchise that also adds in new Pokémon (biggest selling point for the IP imo). All 4 games will coexist like Mario platforms coexist with each other (NSMBUD/SMM2/SMO/SM3DW). A 2022 game can happen but I think Gen 9 will be very big in scope and this LA game is gamefreak a first big attempts to something new. Gamefreak does have 2 divisions so who knows but I’m more 50/50 with dlc for the game

LGPE: Casual
SwSh: New/Main
BDSP: Old/Nostalgia
LA: Change

...

 

[ILikeFeet]

I don't see as much branching of mainline games like that. I expect the changes in Legends to be rolled into the next duo and Legends 2 to be a different take to further differentiate. Let's Go seems dead as it doesn't serve any purpose that isn't already fulfilled by the new games and remakes

 

[Hidden04]

I don't see as much branching of mainline games like that. I expect the changes in Legends to be rolled into the next duo and Legends 2 to be a different take to further differentiate. Let's Go seems dead as it doesn't serve any purpose that isn't already fulfilled by the new games and remakes

Can't wait for the next mainline Pokemon games to have side quests galore!

 

[ILikeFeet]

Can't wait for the next mainline Pokemon games to have side quests galore!

I fucking wish

 

[DarkDetective]

First of all, I would love for a new mainline game to come out in 2022. If it does then we have a stacked 12 months of Pokémon games. That said....

Covid definitely pushed things back imo. Arceus coming out end of Jan would mean it came out on track without any delays imo. But forget Covid talk, The reason for the first time in Pokémon history for these games to coexist is because of the fact that all the games are very different. SwSh and BDSP represent New and Old for the franchise. SwSh longevity is backed up by both dlc and what it offers for its online experience (raids/etc). It’s also the go to Pokémon for competitive play. BDSP is now similar to that of 2D Zelda (3D Zelda is SwSh). It has its own set of Pokémon (Gen 1-4), which since this generation we haven’t had all the Pokémon created in a single game. I don’t expect this game to sell for long but it’ll still end up much better than let’s go which I may add is the “Casual” experience”

Lastly Legends Arceus represents “Change” with it being very close to Pokémon main games but with a new core experience. It is a semi open world game not seen before for the franchise that also adds in new Pokémon (biggest selling point for the IP imo). All 4 games will coexist like Mario platforms coexist with each other (NSMBUD/SMM2/SMO/SM3DW). A 2022 game can happen but I think Gen 9 will be very big in scope and this LA game is gamefreak a first big attempts to something new. Gamefreak does have 2 divisions so who knows but I’m more 50/50 with dlc for the game

LGPE: Casual
SwSh: New/Main
BDSP: Old/Nostalgia
LA: Change

...

They're not obligated to release the game as soon as it's finished. I don't understand why they would release Arceus two months after BDSP, even if they're somewhat different from one another, as there could still be an overlap between the audiences and spending $60 twice in a couple of months could be a bit too much for some fans (remember that there's a lot of kids playing Pokémon, too).

I agree with you that they've focused on different angles of the Pokémon experience with recent games. Let's Go is more about exploring and catching, while Sword & Shield are more about progress and competition (exploration and progress are two forms of adventuring, but with a different focus). Yes, BDSP is more about nostalgia and Arceus is more about inventing something new for the fans. However, that doesn't mean they won't cannabalise one another's sales if they're released two months from one another. So if there's no new mainline game in Q4, why even risk limiting BDSP's sales potential by releasing Arceus in January, of all months? Even if they somehow need to release outside the traditional holiday quarter, March or Q2 would've made more sense to me.

 

[Judy]

I'd guess around what Let's Go did, so 12-15mil. But it could be higher based on word of mouth.

 

[storres]

They're not obligated to release the game as soon as it's finished. I don't understand why they would release Arceus two months after BDSP, even if they're somewhat different from one another, as there could still be an overlap between the audiences and spending $60 twice in a couple of months could be a bit too much for some fans (remember that there's a lot of kids playing Pokémon, too).

I agree with you that they've focused on different angles of the Pokémon experience with recent games. Let's Go is more about exploring and catching, while Sword & Shield are more about progress and competition (exploration and progress are two forms of adventuring, but with a different focus). Yes, BDSP is more about nostalgia and Arceus is more about inventing something new for the fans. However, that doesn't mean they won't cannabalise one another's sales if they're released two months from one another. So if there's no new mainline game in Q4, why even risk limiting BDSP's sales potential by releasing Arceus in January, of all months? Even if they somehow need to release outside the traditional holiday quarter, March or Q2 would've made more sense to me.

I think the anime is already reaching a story line similar to Legends.

 

[ILikeFeet]

I think the anime is already reaching a story line similar to Legends.

only two episodes and they're exclusive to Amazon

 

[Tokuiten]

I honestly think Arceus is the most ambiguous game in terms of sales predictions ever. It's easy to make good arguments for and against big numbers.

If someone put a gun against my head, I'd say ... half of the latest mainline entry. 75% if the game gains some hype from some specific youtuber. I don't know the absolute numbers for all the Pokemon-games other than what's in the OP, so that's why I'm using percentages. My general reasoning is that afaik the game doesn't have online-fights and -trading, nor 2 different edition, both of which adds a lot of appeal to the mainline games. The graphics are underwhelming, both compared to the much older BotW or the popular Genshin Impact. And I can easily see even some negative word of mouth once youtubers get to play it. Ultimately, it will sell well enough, but more along the lines of one of the GameCube-Pokemon jrpgs and not like a mainline entry.

Ofc, the complete opposite could become true, too: Open world-3D-Pokemon for tv console, yay!!1 Double the sales of SwSh! But that's not my prediction.

 

[ILikeFeet]

I honestly think Arceus is the most ambiguous game in terms of sales predictions ever. It's easy to make good arguments for and against big numbers.

If someone put a gun against my head, I'd say ... half of the latest mainline entry. 75% if the game gains some hype from some specific youtuber. I don't know the absolute numbers for all the Pokemon-games other than what's in the OP, so that's why I'm using percentages. My general reasoning is that afaik the game doesn't have online-fights and -trading, nor 2 different edition, both of which adds a lot of appeal to the mainline games. The graphics are underwhelming, both compared to the much older BotW or the popular Genshin Impact. And I can easily see even some negative word of mouth once youtubers get to play it. Ultimately, it will sell well enough, but more along the lines of one of the GameCube-Pokemon jrpgs and not like a mainline entry.

Ofc, the complete opposite could become true, too: Open world-3D-Pokemon for tv console, yay!!1 Double the sales of SwSh! But that's not my prediction.

nah, the hype ain't coming from youtubers. new info gets a milli views on both the english and jp channels, so I think it's just that people like the new pokemon and characters. that's what separates the main games from the spinoffs.

as far as negative word of mouth, I don't see that changing from how the remakes and Sword and Shield were received by poketubers who make their money by being negative. Pokemon Sword and SHield still has a 4.6 user score, and Pokemon Diamond has a 5.5. but the sales speak for themselves

 

[awng782]

Are graphics really holding back Pokemon sales like...at all? IMO Sword/Shield look worse than Legends Arceus (while also not being anywhere near as ambitious in scope and scale) yet it will soon become the 2nd best-selling entry in the franchise.

I think the only actual thing that could hold back Arceus - beyond not outright being a new generation - is the lack of multiplayer battling. Not having dual versions could also hurt sales among those who typically buy both versions of each Pokemon game for themselves, but I pretty sure only a tiny portion of Pokemon players do that.

I'm predicting 18-20 million copies shipped lifetime, with 11-12 million coming from its FY2021 Q4 launch quarter.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Yes but we don't know what it entails so far. It could be a positive, neutral or a negative.

I mean, one of the arguments before for why legends won’t do well is that it is devoid of any multiplayer aspect like the previous Pokémon games. It’s already confirmed to have MP so there is a form of engagement between player-to-player. And assuming it’s just trading, that’s the most popular form of MP for Pokémon games albeit simple. And battling is the second.

 

[Lelouch0612]

I mean, one of the arguments before for why legends won’t do well is that it is devoid of any multiplayer aspect like the previous Pokémon games. It’s already confirmed to have MP so there is a form of engagement between player-to-player. And assuming it’s just trading, that’s the most popular form of MP for Pokémon games albeit simple. And battling is the second.

The comparison is with other Pokemon Switch games.

If it only has trading I would count it as a negative as the other games have battling in addition to it.

Of course, it doesn't change the fact that having trading is a positive for the game.

 

[Nokia]

I went with 12m-15m, I think the concept is interesting enough to bring in more new fans and potentially players who got bored of the formula in the past years.

 

[Adventureracing]

Not sure yet. I will say that hype for the game seems to be quite high and there is a lot of general interest in it (I know a lot of my friends who are lapsed Pokémon fans are interested). Pre orders seem to be strong in Japan as well.

I think signs are point to it selling very well. I guess right now my expectations are around the Pokémon remakes with the potential to go higher.

 

[bixente]

It seems like the more hatred a Pokemon game receives online, the better it sells.

I didn't see any negativity with Snap and of course its sales pale next to the mainline titles.

 

[Aleh]

I think Legends will sell 18+, so I voted 18/20 but I think 20+ is possible as well.
Basically, under Sword and Shield, but not sure how much.
The main reason why I think it will sell a boatload is the potential WoM. The game is very well suited to streaming because of its open nature, Pokémon interactivity creating chances for memes like what happened with the Wild Area, but on a bigger scale since they can straight up attack the players. Likewise shiny hunting will be huge, since people prefer to watch and even do it when it’s Let’s Go style, SWSH didn’t seem as popular on that front to me.

Then there’s obvious stuff like new mons, and what I think will be a generally positive reception even from the core audience that usually complains (not completely obviously that’s a pipe dream)

DLC (I assume) will extend legs and refresh the marketing push for its first holidays, that’s why I don’t think it’s a huge issue to miss this year’s.

Single SKU is a complete non factor imo.

The single most worrying thing to me is actually… the beautiful boxart. It’s not the same way all other mainline games were so I hope people won’t be confused by it.

I think it would've been stupid to let BDSP and Arceus share a holiday season with one in Sep and one in Nov/Dec. Glad they didn't do that.

I said I think Arceus will be released in January because they have another game planned for holiday 2022. Why wouldn't they wait until Q4 2022 with the release of Arceus if they don't have anything else lined-up for that slot? It would give BDSP more time to thrive, and it would mean Arceus is a newer game during the holidays, which matters because it means it's in the minds of kids and other people who rely on the holiday season for their big game purchase of the year; it means retailers don't need to spend shelf space on the game for a full year (which means they could decide to spend less shelf space on it during the holidays than if it were a newer game); it means the gap between Arceus and BDSP is only 2 months and the gap between Arceus and the next mainline Pokémon game is almost 2 years, which is just stupid imo.

Would like to hear your thoughts on this.

If Legends was delayed from holiday 2021, delaying it a whole year to reach holiday 2022 wouldn’t make sense for the development itself, unless they decided to further up the scope. It also doesn’t work if they have DLC planned (which I think is likely) and in a year super filled with other releases there’s even less need

 

[DarkDetective]

If Legends was delayed from holiday 2021, delaying it a whole year to reach holiday 2022 wouldn’t make sense for the development itself, unless they decided to further up the scope. It also doesn’t work if they have DLC planned (which I think is likely) and in a year super filled with other releases there’s even less need

It's not required to continue developing the game if you decide to postpone the release to a strategically better release slot.

 

[awng782]

BOTW2 is most likely scheduled for a holiday 2022 release - I don't think Nintendo wants two big mega-blockbuster open-world single player games releasing that close to each other.

Nintendo also wants/needs a big game to close out FY2021 and Legends Arceus is it.

 

[Gartooth]

Doing a January release, only 2 months after the Gen 4 remakes did incredibly well, has me second guessing my own predictions. I'm thinking 10m is generally reasonable but am not confident in it doing more than that. This game also exists in a grey area in regards to whether it can be counted as a mainline title or spinoff. Snap of course is a different situation, but that game strikes me as the most recent Pokemon title where it's market performance fell short of some bolder predictions despite its pre-release buzz.

Edit: OK well I'm way off the mark already going by pre-release buzz and it's Japanese preorders.

 

[Aleh]

It's not required to continue developing the game if you decide to postpone the release to a strategically better release slot.

Again, even if they sat on it they might have DLC to worry about

 

[Simar]

Yeah, the B-Team is probably already working on the expansion pass while the A-Team is working on Gen9. (and ILCA is working on Platinum)

I'm too bullish with my 18-20m vote but i haven't been this excited for a Pokémon game i barely know anything about in a long time.
Since i've pretty much finished my BDSP living dex (missing only 6 Pokémon + 5 event Pokémon) i'll enjoy the break since Legends releases in a perfect time for me (about a month before and after it without big releases). I'm not sure if i'd have this much time if it released later in the year.

Assuming a big expansion is ready before the holidays they might have a stronger marketing campaign for the expansion than for the launch..

 

[WestEgg]

Yeah, the B-Team is probably already working on the expansion pass while the A-Team is working on Gen9. (and ILCA is working on Platinum)

I'd really be interested in seeing the attach rate of the Sword and Shield expansion DLC, because that will likely inform if third versions are going to be DLC moving forward, or if a full 3rd release is still viable.

 

[K samedi]

I presume what ever lost sales there will be from Japan will be more than made up by US numbers. So I think it will perform at least like any other Pokemon title.