What is the true potential of Super Mario RPG ?

[Terrell]

On Amazon US, Super Mario RPG has reached 30K+ over the last month 1 day before launch.

Super Mario RPG:
- Jun: 10K+
- Jul: 8K+
- Aug: 4K+
- Sep: 6K+
- Oct: 10K+
- Nov: ??? (On Nov 16, 1 day before launch: 30K+)

To compare with Super Mario Bros Wonder:
- Jun: 10K+
- Jul: 10K+
- Aug: 7K+
- Sep: 20K+
- Oct: 100K+ (On Oct 19, 1 day before launch: 70K+)

The launch should quite big by Mario spin-off standards. As another point of comparison, it has already very comfortably outsold Pikmin 4 on Amazon off of preorders alone.

Additionally, this is where it's sitting on the YTD charts a day before launch (and the 30-day sales figure in parentheses):

US: #47
Canada: #67 (2K+)
UK: N/A (2K+)
France: N/A (2K+)
Germany: N/A (not listed)

Though not sure how you got the 30K number, the game shows up as sold out in physical and with no 30-day sales data for me.

 

[theprodigy]

Ehh. Isnt it the opposite? Considering any sales on Europe is guarantee increase in sales vs previous Mario rpg title lol

Why are you comparing to the original?

 

[AruanaRiva]

Why are you comparing to the original?

Talking about growth will need a baseline of what it grows from.

So comparison to original is the baseline there.

 

[theprodigy]

Talking about growth will need a baseline of what it grows from.

So comparison to original is the baseline there.

The original post said nothing about growth just where the sales will come from.

 

[fiendcode]

The original post said nothing about growth just where the sales will come from.

The post said sales would be nostalgia driven, I figured that's where comparison to the original entered the equation.

 

[Drblitzk]

Lelouch post is about why he thinks Nostalgia will be the main driver for sales, meaning that US/Japan will have a higher % share to something like Mario Wonder, or TOTK for example.

The only tracker where we can do preorder comparison between regions is Amazon, and so far they point towards his theory as Mario RPG seems to be tracking far behind Wonder in Europe, while it’s not that far in US, Japan.

Still not definitive, and sales for Europe could come from other sources.

I don’t think the remake will outsell the original in Japan, but the rest of the World should make up for it.

 

[Koti]

Lelouch post is about why he thinks Nostalgia will be the main driver for sales, meaning that US/Japan will have a higher % share to something like Mario Wonder, or TOTK for example.

The only tracker where we can do preorder comparison between regions is Amazon, and so far they point towards his theory as Mario RPG seems to be tracking far behind Wonder in Europe, while it’s not that far in US, Japan.

Still not definitive, and sales for Europe could come from other sources.

I don’t think the remake will outsell the original in Japan, but the rest of the World should make up for it.

Really? I feel like it will do better in all regions. Although I'm not sure how much the original sold. It wasn't that much right?

 

[Drblitzk]

Really? I feel like it will do better in all regions. Although I'm not sure how much the original sold. It wasn't that much right?

1,47M in Japan , 0,67M RotW = 2,14M WW as per Celine's threads.

 

[theprodigy]

1,47M in Japan , 0,67M RotW = 2,14M WW as per Celine's threads.

Note that ROTW=NA here

 

[BTB123]

Additionally, this is where it's sitting on the YTD charts a day before launch (and the 30-day sales figure in parentheses):

US: #47
Canada: #67 (2K+)
UK: N/A (2K+)
France: N/A (2K+)
Germany: N/A (not listed)

Though not sure how you got the 30K number, the game shows up as sold out in physical and with no 30-day sales data for me.

It was at 3k in Germany before it sold out.

 

[Gartooth]

I'm thinking this will be a more fan driven title as well. The game will have only about 6 weeks of sales recorded in the results we get since it drops the week before Thanksgiving. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it ends up over 4 million opening quarter.

 

[AruanaRiva]

I'm thinking this will be a more fan driven title as well. The game will have only about 6 weeks of sales recorded in the results we get since it drops the week before Thanksgiving. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it ends up over 4 million opening quarter.

Will depend how nintendo position the title. If they are doing like double combo Mario marketing for holiday with Wonder and RPG. I can see it doing 3m first quarter

 

[awng782]

On Amazon US, Super Mario RPG has reached 30K+ over the last month 1 day before launch.

Super Mario RPG:
- Jun: 10K+
- Jul: 8K+
- Aug: 4K+
- Sep: 6K+
- Oct: 10K+
- Nov: ??? (On Nov 16, 1 day before launch: 30K+)

To compare with Super Mario Bros Wonder:
- Jun: 10K+
- Jul: 10K+
- Aug: 7K+
- Sep: 20K+
- Oct: 100K+ (On Oct 19, 1 day before launch: 70K+)

The launch should quite big by Mario spin-off standards. As another point of comparison, it has already very comfortably outsold Pikmin 4 on Amazon off of preorders alone.

Super Mario RPG:
- Jun: 10K+
- Jul: 8K+
- Aug: 4K+
- Sep: 6K+
- Oct: 10K+
- Nov: ??? (On Nov 19, 2 days after launch: 40K+)

To compare with Super Mario Bros Wonder:
- Jun: 10K+
- Jul: 10K+
- Aug: 7K+
- Sep: 20K+
- Oct: 100K+ (On Oct 22, 2 days after launch: 90K+ )

 

[horuhe]

Do we have numbers for Super Mario RPG in Spain already?

 

[AK World]

Do we have numbers for Super Mario RPG in Spain already?

9.500 units in its first week.

 

[bababooey]

I'm gonna guess it'll be around 1.5-2 million at Nintys next quarterly results. In line with the Kirby Dreamland remake sales

 

[Mekanos]

9.500 units in its first week.

Is there a good way to compare this to other releases? Not familiar with Spain's market.

 

[AK World]

Is there a good way to compare this to other releases? Not familiar with Spain's market.

Here's a list of how a bunch of games opened in Spain, to compare.

 

[Mekanos]

Here's a list of how a bunch of games opened in Spain, to compare.

Thanks. Opening in line with Pikmin 4 and Pokemon New Snap seems pretty solid. Like I said in another thread, it's really hard to gauge this game's sales in regions where the original didn't release, but based on this and the UK numbers (just shy of TOK's opening), 2.5m quarter seems plausible. Really curious what the Japanese numbers will look like, original was a monster hit there.

 

[awng782]

Super Mario RPG:
- Jun: 10K+
- Jul: 8K+
- Aug: 4K+
- Sep: 6K+
- Oct: 10K+
- Nov: ??? (On Nov 19, 2 days after launch: 40K+)

To compare with Super Mario Bros Wonder:
- Jun: 10K+
- Jul: 10K+
- Aug: 7K+
- Sep: 20K+
- Oct: 100K+ (On Oct 22, 2 days after launch: 90K+ )

Super Mario RPG:
- Jun: 10K+
- Jul: 8K+
- Aug: 4K+
- Sep: 6K+
- Oct: 10K+
- Nov: ??? (On Nov 24, 8 days after launch: 50K+)

To compare with Super Mario Bros Wonder:
- Jun: 10K+
- Jul: 10K+
- Aug: 7K+
- Sep: 20K+
- Oct: 100K+

 

[awng782]

Super Mario RPG:
- Jun: 10K+
- Jul: 8K+
- Aug: 4K+
- Sep: 6K+
- Oct: 10K+
- Nov: ??? (On Nov 24, 8 days after launch: 50K+)

To compare with Super Mario Bros Wonder:
- Jun: 10K+
- Jul: 10K+
- Aug: 7K+
- Sep: 20K+
- Oct: 100K+

With Black Friday + Cyber Monday behind us and November itself almost done, this is what the final November results should look like:

Super Mario RPG:
- Jun: 10K+
- Jul: 8K+
- Aug: 4K+
- Sep: 6K+
- Oct: 10K+
- Nov: 60K+

To compare with Super Mario Bros Wonder:
- Jun: 10K+
- Jul: 10K+
- Aug: 7K+
- Sep: 20K+
- Oct: 100K+
- Nov: 100K+