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What is the true potential of Super Mario RPG ?

How much will Super Mario RPG sell in its launch quarter WW ?

  • Sub 2m

    Votes: 6 3.1%

  • 2m - 3.5m

    Votes: 44 22.9%

  • 3.5m - 5m

    Votes: 66 34.4%

  • 5m - 6.5m

    Votes: 52 27.1%

  • 6.5m - 8m

    Votes: 12 6.3%

  • More than 8m

    Votes: 12 6.3%
  • Total voters
    192
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Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
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During the Nintendo Direct of June 2023, Nintendo announced a remake of Mario's very first RPG, which was an expected collaboration between Nintendo and Squaresoft.

The game however suffered from a late SNES release, no EMEA release and increasingly tense relation between Squaresoft and Nintendo, right before the N64 launch.

As such, the game only sold 2.14m units Worlwide.

More than 2 decades later, the game is launching on a very successful platform and with an underserved market of Mario RPG (Paper Mario skewing more toward Action these days).

It is also launching at a very strategic time, right before Black Friday and the start of the Holiday shopping season (November 17th).

So, my dear Install Base members, what do you think of the game's potential ?
 
Voted 3.5 to 5 mil, but it wouldn't surprise if it does more. Early metrics and Amazon chart positions are exceptional.
 
Max Tbone-ing at 8m because I wanna see anti turn base people cry.

Ps. I don’t like turn base, go find your friendship elsewhere.
 
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Mario RPG sales
  • Index
    • Mario RPG sales
    1. Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story - 4.56m
    2. Super Paper Mario* - 4.23m
    3. Paper Mario: The Origami King* - 3.34m
    4. Mario & Luigi: Dream Team - 2.68m
    5. Paper Mario: Sticker Star - 2.48m
    6. Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga - 2.15m
    7. Super Mario RPG - 2.14m
    8. Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door - 1.91m
    9. Mario & Luigi: Partner in Time - 1.73m
    10. Paper Mario - 1.37m
    11. Mario & Luigi: Paper Jam - 1.08m
    Every other entry sold below the 1m mark.

    * - not really a RPG
     
    Last edited:
  • Index
    • I think this will clear 5 million and maybe more. Super Mario RPG just feels like it has a value proposition to it that Mario and Luigi or Paper Mario does not. Its self contained and approachable, is pretty close to the main series art style but still with its own flair, and the original has a great reputation. I think Super Mario RPG could pretty easily become the most successful RPG if the chips fall as they should.
     
    WestEgg said:
    I think this will clear 5 million and maybe more. Super Mario RPG just feels like it has a value proposition to it that Mario and Luigi or Paper Mario does not. Its self contained and approachable, is pretty close to the main series art style but still with its own flair, and the original has a great reputation. I think Super Mario RPG could pretty easily become the most successful RPG if the chips fall as they should.
    Click to expand...
    This will proabably be an unpopular opinion but the Mario Mario and Luigi series Bassicaly being 5 Mario characters in a entirely original environment really hurt sales potential for it, and paper Mario being, paper Mario probably didn’t help as it made it seems more of a side series thing compared to mainline Mario, Mario rpg has some brand synergy with the mainline games and movies so it could definitely break the barrier on how low Mario rpgs sell compared to other Mario games.
     
    It feels like I should say 2M, but the initial reception as well as the confidence Nintendo seems to have in it to position it as a November release is pretty telling.
     
    Lelouch0612 said:
    Mario RPG sales
    1. Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story - 4.56m
    2. Super Paper Mario - 4.23m
    3. Paper Mario: The Origami King - 3.34m
    4. Mario & Luigi: Dream Team - 2.68m
    5. Paper Mario: Sticker Star - 2.48m
    6. Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga - 2.15m
    7. Super Mario RPG - 2.14m
    8. Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door - 1.91m
    9. Mario & Luigi: Partner in Time - 1.73m
    10. Paper Mario - 1.37m
    11. Mario & Luigi: Paper Jam - 1.08m
    Every other entry sold below the 1m mark.
    Click to expand...
    the fact that SMRPG outsold Paper Mario 1 and 2 just tells me that Paper Mario, the RPG isn't coming back if SMRPG succeeds. for as much as people lament the change from an RPG, it wasn't as much of a selling point to begin with
     
    Chris1964 said:
    These two aren't RPGs, action and adventure are the closer genres.
    Click to expand...
    You are right, but for Paper Mario series completion's sake I added them. Still, will add an asterisk.
    ILikeFeet said:
    the fact that SMRPG outsold Paper Mario 1 and 2 just tells me that Paper Mario, the RPG isn't coming back if SMRPG succeeds. for as much as people lament the change from an RPG, it wasn't as much of a selling point to begin with
    Click to expand...
    I don't necessarily agree, since the sales must be looked at with the platform they were on in mind.

    Paper Mario and TTYD was the #12 best-selling Nintendo game on GC. That's more than the Mario Sports games on the console, and Pikmin too.
     
    It's pretty intriguing. Went with 5m - 6.5m. It's going to have positive WOM even before it comes out from people who played the original, and Mario just had a massive movie release.

    If Mario Wonder wasn't coming out the month before I'd think it would do even more. I think Wonder will probably be bundled for the holidays.
     
    For launch quarter, 3.5-5 seems right. It will do very well compared to other Mario RPGs. Probably won't set the world on fire though. Lifetime think it might crawl to as high as 10 million. The Super Mario brand is very strong right now.
     
    SquidEnthusiast said:
    The exact numbers aren't as important to me as a potential sequel getting greenlight off the back of its potential success, voted 5-6.5m.
    Click to expand...
    This is where I'm at, I want more traditional Mario RPGs and this seems like testing the waters on Nintendo's part, but it's positioned really well to be at least the best selling Mario RPG. Huge install base (heh) + remake of a classic beloved game + momentum from the movie... at the very least, I think it will probably outsell Origami King. I voted 3.5-5m but I would love for even more.
     
    Yeah, I am on the 4-5M train.

    It will outsell Metroid Prime 4 handily and make a place for itself in the premier tier of Nintendo franchises.
     
    My modest guess is 5M as the baseline. It will comfortably become the new best selling Mario RPG and also be more "approachable" than the Paper Mario RPGs (which also helped bolster Mario & Luigi over them), but most likely be held back to some degree by the fact that it's a remake rather than a brand new entry. I also think the ceiling for a proper RPG is a bit lower than an adventure game, but it should still see major success and incentivize investing in RPG spinoffs more, while Paper Mario continues the adventure format.
     
    I expect lifetime sales between 3 and 3,5 millions so for the launch quarter below 2 millions.
     
    MadMax said:
    In order to get more RPG style Mario games, the remake will need to sell more than both of those Paper Mario titles to send a message to Nintendo.
    Click to expand...
    I don't think it's that Nintendo doesn't know. otherwise we wouldn't even get this remake. but convincing Intelligent Systems to make an rpg Paper Mario? I genuinely don't think they care
     
    Lelouch0612 said:
    Mario RPG sales
    1. Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story - 4.56m
    2. Super Paper Mario* - 4.23m
    3. Paper Mario: The Origami King* - 3.34m
    4. Mario & Luigi: Dream Team - 2.68m
    5. Paper Mario: Sticker Star - 2.48m
    6. Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga - 2.15m
    7. Super Mario RPG - 2.14m
    8. Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door - 1.91m
    9. Mario & Luigi: Partner in Time - 1.73m
    10. Paper Mario - 1.37m
    11. Mario & Luigi: Paper Jam - 1.08m
    Every other entry sold below the 1m mark.

    * - not really a RPG
    Click to expand...
    Where's the M+R games? 🙃

    I also thought SPM retained RPG leveling, it just shifted to realtime action combat? Sticker Star was when the series dumped RPG character progression.
     
    fiendcode said:
    Where's the M+R games? 🙃

    I also thought SPM retained RPG leveling, it just shifted to realtime action combat? Sticker Star was when the series dumped RPG character progression.
    Click to expand...
    SPM had leveling but it was stripped down compared to its predecessors. It has a fixed rotation to what attributes increase every level (health and attack), and the game otherwise has almost zero player input in regards to personalization and customization.

    It was more of an adventure game at its core. Arguably the main reason it's above everything but Inside Story is because consumers likely bought into it expecting it to be a basic Mario platformer sidescroller.
     
    Bowser's Inside Story sales are still crazy to me. It more than doubled Partners In Time's numbers and if you take away the pseudo-RPGs, the next best selling game is still Dream Team way down there. It's a good game but I never got why that one broke out specifically. Novelty of playable Bowser?
     
    Mekanos said:
    Bowser's Inside Story sales are still crazy to me. It more than doubled Partners In Time's numbers and if you take away the pseudo-RPGs, the next best selling game is still Dream Team way down there. It's a good game but I never got why that one broke out specifically. Novelty of playable Bowser?
    Click to expand...
    Bowser's Inside Story just in general had monumental word-of-mouth at the time. It's one of only three Mario RPG games right now to have a 90 on Metacritic, but even back then I feel like people were talking about it everywhere as one of the best games on the DS.

    Playable Bowser probably played some factor to why it did better, but I think it's more fair to say its predecessor and sequel just relatively speaking didn't have that "it" factor. Dream Team despite its presentation was seen as a big step down, and Partners In Time above all else probably nerfed itself by being a game about babies.
     
    Nintendo seem confident in it and they’re positioning it as a big holiday game. The reception so far to its announcement is very impressive. It’s hard to put a figure on it but the it looks set to sell a lot.

    Kanann said:
    Max Tbone-ing at 8m because I wanna see anti turn base people cry.

    Ps. I don’t like turn base, go find your friendship elsewhere.
    Click to expand...
    There are dozens of us, dozens! Oh wait.

    Seriously though I’ll be there day one supporting turn based RPG’s. Need this to take down FFXVI to really send a message.
     
    I feel it's too early to tell, I still have to see what the game offers besides upgraded nostalgia.

    I reckon it could do 5m, and crawl up to 6m with the proper conditions.
     
    It feels like such a wildcard game. It could end up doing 2m or 10m and I'd go yeah, makes sense. Gonna split the difference and go for 5-6
     
    Absolutely no idea.

    It has a phenomenal release date, racked up the most social media likes out of anything in the Direct bar Elephant Mario, has millions of views on YouTube worldwide, is already topping Wonder (and XVI during release) on Amazon.com - but I don't know how much of the huge initial surge of attention includes "just" lapsed fans of the original.
     
    this feels like a Metroid Prime Remaster situation. I think the older enthusiast gamers are gonna be more hype for it but i dont know if its gonna sell bucket loads to the younger audience. It could realistically do 2-2.5m and that would make sense with the way other smaller rpgs sell
     
    I said:
    More than 8m
    because we need this game to win!!!
    This may be our only hope for the series to possibility continue!


    We need to spirit bomb this game in sales lol
     
    Remember_spinal said:
    this feels like a Metroid Prime Remaster situation. I think the older enthusiast gamers are gonna be more hype for it but i dont know if its gonna sell bucket loads to the younger audience. It could realistically do 2-2.5m and that would make sense with the way other smaller rpgs sell
    Click to expand...
    This game isn't being digitally shadowdropped and will have several months to build hype and pre-orders (and is being positioned as the Switch's big pre-Black Friday game), so I don't feel like the situation is quite comparable. With that being said, there is certainly a large degree of nostalgia driving the conversation at the moment, so that should be accounted for when predicting lifetime sales potential.
     
    awng782 said:
    This game isn't being digitally shadowdropped and will have several months to build hype and pre-orders (and is being positioned as the Switch's big pre-Black Friday game), so I don't feel like the situation is quite comparable. With that being said, there is certainly a large degree of nostalgia driving the conversation at the moment, so that should be accounted for when predicting lifetime sales potential.
    Click to expand...
    Correct -- SMRPG remake is being positioned as a tentpole release. Nintendo has never done this with titles in the Paper Mario or Mario & Luigi series before. SMRPG has tons of nostalgia going for it, yes, but they know the strength of the "Super Mario" brand right now is as high as it's ever been. Like for many children in the 90s, including myself, Super Mario RPG could be the gateway to the turn-based RPG genre for a lot of Mario fans. What is expected from RPG titles may not apply here. Not saying it's going to sell like a Pokemon game, obviously, but there are similarities.
     
    Remember_spinal said:
    this feels like a Metroid Prime Remaster situation. I think the older enthusiast gamers are gonna be more hype for it but i dont know if its gonna sell bucket loads to the younger audience. It could realistically do 2-2.5m and that would make sense with the way other smaller rpgs sell
    Click to expand...

    Prepare to be shocked, this game is doing over 3mil alone in its launch quarter 😉
     
    Remember_spinal said:
    this feels like a Metroid Prime Remaster situation. I think the older enthusiast gamers are gonna be more hype for it but i dont know if its gonna sell bucket loads to the younger audience. It could realistically do 2-2.5m and that would make sense with the way other smaller rpgs sell
    Click to expand...
    I think one key difference is Nintendo's own expectations and handling. One remake was a budget Feb shadowdrop, the other is their full price big Black Friday launch. Not that comparable really.

    A better remake comparison is probably Link's Awakening as a major remake, and that game's sales will probably be the floor for SMRPG.
     
    2 to 3m in the launch quarter, and around 4 million lifetime is my guess but I do think it can blow past that.

    Mario RPGs seem to have a ceiling and I'm not sure a remake of a cult classic will be the one that breaks it. That said I do think there's potential due to its release timing of being in "the year of Mario" and marketing it alongside Mario Wonder could be a smart plan to get people to try out SMRPG. I could see Nintendo even advertising the vouchers to Mario fans particularly with buying this game and Mario Wonder together.
     
    I think 8m. A little under double of Bowser's inside story doesn't seem impossible to me.

    The name is straight to the point, It's a Super Mario RPG, which I think will help it in 2023. The Super Mario brand is stronger than ever. It's not like Paper Mario or Mario & Luigi where it is a part of a series. It's been long enough since the original that it could be seen as a new game. The original only sold 2m which could give us a Mario Kart 8 type situation where it can do 4 times that. Or at least double like Mario 3D World and NSMB U.
     
    I think at least 3-4 million in launch quarter and then at least 5 million total lifetime. Really depends on the legs. Definitely has the potential to outsell Bowser's Inside Story (which is an amazing game). Like what others have mentioned, Nintendo has a lot of confidence since they are putting this game in the coveted week before Black Friday slot, whereas they could have easily put SMB W there.
     
    Why do so many here think it can sell 10M lifetime?
    5M lifetime is what I was thinking with 3-3.5M in the launch quarter.
    I know it's a holiday release and all but that didn't help push Age of Calamity to 10M either. The Mario movie will mostly push SMBW as an entry in a more popular genre and with more traditional gameplay and nostalgia is hardly something that can easily push the game even to 5M.
     
    This one's a wildcard.

    I picked 3.5-5 million but honestly it could go higher. Wouldn't be surprised if it went above 5 million since this is positioned to be Nintendo's big holiday title. Certainly the hardcore fanbase is hyped, and it'll have the Mario name behind it, but it's still an RPG...
     
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