• A small post regarding transcribing source, especially twitter. Please make sure to read the thread here.

  • 🥳🎂 Install Base celebrates its 2nd anniversary ! 🎂🥳

    Thanks everyone, and the best is yet to come ! Check out the details here!

  • đź“°A Sales Story | E12 | Cities: Skylinesđź“°

    Check out the 12th edition of A Sales Story | E12 | Cities: Skylines at the page here!

What is the potential of 2D Mario on Switch? (UPDATE: How will Super Mario Bros. Wonder do?)

Lifetime unit sales of SMB Wonder

  • < 10 million

    Votes: 2 1.3%
  • 10-15 million

    Votes: 10 6.3%
  • 15-20 million

    Votes: 14 8.8%
  • 20-25 million

    Votes: 47 29.4%
  • 25-30 million

    Votes: 30 18.8%
  • > 30 million

    Votes: 57 35.6%

  • Total voters
    160
A new 2D Mario is the biggest game Nintendo has left in the tank to drive console sales hard one last time. Not sure what else is bigger, the fifth Pokemon game on the platform surely isn't.
Tomodachi and... maybe new IP, BOTW moment for one of the games or new type of game for one of the IP's. Just these
 
Tomodachi and... maybe new IP, BOTW moment for one of the games or new type of game for one of the IP's. Just these
Yeah, and whatever that new IP might be, it will almost certainly be saved for Drake at this point.

2D Mario and Tomodachi have definitely felt like for a while like the last two bullets Nintendo had in the chamber for this console. It might be too late for Tomodachi, which is pretty surprising how they never used this IP.
 
With regards to Tomodachi, I'm still suspicious over Nintendo leaving September wide open on their calendar. (Other than Pikmin 1+2 physical but that's coming 3 months after digital and will be an even more limited physical run than Prime)

They didn't need to leave September empty when they instead decided to double up both October (Pikachu, Wonder) and November (WarioWare, SMRPG) on new first party games and the last WarioWare even occupied the September slot in 2021. So dropping in a casual title with the reach of something like Tomodachi or Ring Fit would make a lot of sense. Otherwise Nintendo's Q2 software slate for this FY looks empty with only Pikmin.
 
Over 30 million is the easy answer.

NSMBU is still in the top 20 US sales this year even with just physical sales reported. That’s an 11 year old Wii U game.

I think spidey is going to be very close match actually.

Lets see here.
Both has big successful movie this year pushing the IP mindshares
Both has been gigantic seller for both companies.

It will be close sales between both title there.

I don’t see it.

Spider-man is a weaker IP now than it was in 2018. The original game sold 3 million in 3 days (fastest selling ps4 game at the time) only because the system was reaching its user base apex at 90 million units? The ps5 will still be half of that when 2 comes out.

Popular Switch games can sell 10 million in 3 days.

I don’t think it’s going to be very close at all.
 
Spider-Man will do extremely well and in terms of IP recognition it is one of the very few IPs on earth that can go toe-to-toe with Mario.

I think the only aspect hindering it is PS5 exclusivity.
 
With regards to Tomodachi, I'm still suspicious over Nintendo leaving September wide open on their calendar. (Other than Pikmin 1+2 physical but that's coming 3 months after digital and will be an even more limited physical run than Prime)

They didn't need to leave September empty when they instead decided to double up both October (Pikachu, Wonder) and November (WarioWare, SMRPG) on new first party games and the last WarioWare even occupied the September slot in 2021. So dropping in a casual title with the reach of something like Tomodachi or Ring Fit would make a lot of sense. Otherwise Nintendo's Q2 software slate for this FY looks empty with only Pikmin.

It's been theorized that September may have a GCN remaster that is dropped the day of a hypothetical September Nintendo Direct, like MP Remastered in April and Pikmin 1 and 2 this month. Maybe this is when F-Zero GX remastered is released.
 
It's about install base size. Both IPs heavily rely on it, the bigger the better.

I know, I was being facetious.

But my underlying point was that Spider-Man “only” sold 3.3 million in 3 days on a mostly saturated ps4 userbase.

Even if the ps5 had sold 90 million already, I don’t see Spider-Man 2 doing that much better. (Happy to be proven wrong though)

Mario Bros. Wonder would crush Spider-Man 2 launch numbers no matter what the ps5 userbase size was. So I don’t see it as much of a hinderance in this case.

Now, if you are saying Spider-man 2 launch sales will be hindered by releasing 3 years into the ps5 compared to the original being released 5 years in…sure.

But it’s pretty much irrelevant as to why Wonder will crush Spider-Man 2 launch sales. A hinderance suggests it would be close if the ps5 had a healthier userbase size. It wouldn’t be.
 
Over 30 million is the easy answer.

NSMBU is still in the top 20 US sales this year even with just physical sales reported. That’s an 11 year old Wii U game.



I don’t see it.

Spider-man is a weaker IP now than it was in 2018. The original game sold 3 million in 3 days (fastest selling ps4 game at the time) only because the system was reaching its user base apex at 90 million units? The ps5 will still be half of that when 2 comes out.

Popular Switch games can sell 10 million in 3 days.

I don’t think it’s going to be very close at all.

I think atm, PS5 audience on the west is far more active and more okay to dive in the game day one. So i can see bigger explosion sales for launch week there. Maybe 5m first 3 day.

But we will see. In the end, both will be absurdly successful game competing against ToTK, Diablo 4 and Hogwarts for the best selling game of the year.(Also CoD i guess haha)
 
I think atm, PS5 audience on the west is far more active and more okay to dive in the game day one. So i can see bigger explosion sales for launch week there. Maybe 5m first 3 day.

Well, it would have to be the west pulling the share of sales.

And I dunno, the majority of the original Spider-Man sales were by gamers who bought it at a discount at $20-$30. I can see a lot of the “west gamers” willing to wait. Sony has conditioned gamers that their games will get steep discounts relatively early.

So in terms of launch weeks sales, it’s still very questionable.

Is there any ps5 game that has gotten anywhere close to 5 million sales in 3 days at launch? Any ps5 game that has gotten 3 million even?

Even in your best case scenario of 5 million in 3 days…2d Mario Bros Wonder on Switch will sell at least twice that.


But we will see. In the end, both will be absurdly successful game competing against ToTK, Diablo 4 and Hogwarts for the best selling game of the year.(Also CoD i guess haha)

I don’t think it will be close, honestly. I bet ToTK and Mario Bros Wonder will sell more in just 2023 than Spider-Man and Hogwarts and Diablo 4 will sell their entire lifetime.

Mario Bros Wonder will pass Hogwarts sales by November. Mario Bros Wonder will pass Diablo 4 sales by week 1. Mario Bros Wonder will have doubled Spider-Man 2 sales by the end of the year.

ToTK? Forget about it. It will be the best selling game of 2023, no contest.
 
I only brought them up because of the same universe but I see what you're saying. That opens up things like DKCTF or SSBU and Mario is playable there.
Luigi’s mansion can safely be included as it’s very much a Mario game staring Luigi, yoshi and donkey kong Bassicaly are entirely separate, Yoshi has shared stuff still. But if you only played mainline Mario and dk and not spin offs you would never know those two are related.
 
Gonna be bold and say 30+ million. If NSMBUDX could do 15 then I believe an original entry can do twice as much. I'm also assuming the next system is backwards compatible.
 
Yeah 10m in 3 days i think is too much.
it will be around like 2 weeks for 10m there
10M on 1st week only Pokemon SV and Zelda TOTK have done it
But I guess Mario could do it, maybe 8M minimum on launch week

I also think 20M in the launch quarter is doable, more than 2 months and holidays sales to do that
Voted 30M+ for lifetime sales :D
 
We will see how it goes but so far from the early indications, I am not sure it will have an explosive launch. Something 3-5 million for the first week seems reasonable. Longer term, I definitely see 30 million plus if Switch 2 is backwards compatible which I am 99% sure will be the case.

I will probably be completely wrong about the launch once Nintendo does a dedicated direct in September and we get more crazy details that raises the hype levels.
 
10M on 1st week only Pokemon SV and Zelda TOTK have done it
But I guess Mario could do it, maybe 8M minimum on launch week

I also think 20M in the launch quarter is doable, more than 2 months and holidays sales to do that
Voted 30M+ for lifetime sales :D
The game will do great, but I suspect the sales won't be quite as frontloaded as Pokemon/Zelda. 7-8M for launch week seems like a good guess.
 
Easy 20M seller imho, looks great, strong staying power, they probably gathered a lot of ideas given the past 2 Mario 2D games were Maker titles, which will make this resonate as more innovative than most entries in recent memory.
The people who got tired of the New series seem to be into it, which will just bolster the WoM, when people ask "what should I play on Switch?" you rarely see people pointing at NSMBU, I could totally see people mentioning Wonder if it lives up to what we saw in the trailer.
 
So you are saying that 2D Mario Bros Wonder will most likely have a worse launch than Splatoon 3

Very bold.

I disagree.
Splatoon 3 was the fastest-selling game ever in Japan at the time of its release with ~3.45M sold at launch. Mario Wonder won't come anywhere close to selling that much.

In the west Mario will handily outperform Splatoon and it won't even be close.
 
Last edited:
Splatoon 3 was the fastest-selling game ever in Japan at the time of its release with ~3.7M sold at launch. Mario Wonder won't come anywhere close to selling that much.

In the west Mario will handily outperform Splatoon and it won't even be close.

In a world where a 3D Zelda game can sell 2.3 million in Japan in 3 days, certainly a new 2D Mario Bros game after 11 years can get past 3 million there.

I only just disagree with you that 5 million WW is a challenge. It will easily be closer to 10 million than 5 million.
 
Splatoon 3 was the fastest-selling game ever in Japan at the time of its release with ~3.7M sold at launch. Mario Wonder won't come anywhere close to selling that much.

In the west Mario will handily outperform Splatoon and it won't even be close.
3.45M, not 3.7M.
 
Like I’ve said before, a 2D Mario will be more impressive in the legs department vs 1st wk. That doesn’t mean it won’t come out swinging though. I see it selling over 30M when it’s all said & done. I don’t see Spider-Man reaching that on a single platform at all, but it could happen. With the type of engagement MW is receiving, it could potentially be the all-around bestselling console game launching this year. Meaning it might not sell the most this year, but end up being the bestselling title that launched this year (LT).

SMO is over 25M so MW should hit above that imo. 20M seems to be the new 10M for Nintendo’s Mega Sellers lol. Setting another standard it seems lol.

Also I’m not even including it potentially being on the new Nintendo system (whenever that comes out lol). Even though I picked 30M, there is a slight chance I’m overrating the sales potential (lol). 20M is guaranteed though.
 
Last edited:
20 million is the floor imo, I also think the game's launch sales are going to surprise people. This is the first new Mario game releases off the hype of the 1 billion dollar Mario movie.
 
Back
Top Bottom