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What is the domestic and worldwide potential of Dragon Quest 3 HD-2D ?
- Thread starter Lelouch0612
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- #52
On Amazon JP the game is already around 25.000 copies sold.
Switch SKU 1: 9.000 - 10.000 units
Switch SKU 2: 6.000 - 7.000 units
PS5 SKU 1: 4.000 - 5.000 units
PS5 SKU 2: 3.000 - 4.000 units
Switch SKU 1: 9.000 - 10.000 units
Switch SKU 2: 6.000 - 7.000 units
PS5 SKU 1: 4.000 - 5.000 units
PS5 SKU 2: 3.000 - 4.000 units
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- Thread starter
- #53
Little bump but the game is still #1 on Amazon JP with the Switch SKU and the pace is accelerating.
From 7k+ to 9k+ today.
We are still 3 months before launch, it is going to be a juggernaut if interest follows the current trend.
From 7k+ to 9k+ today.
We are still 3 months before launch, it is going to be a juggernaut if interest follows the current trend.
Is Amazon JP still showing sales? When I looked yesterday, it was showing "viewed" rather than sold. Maybe it shows both, but I'd just not noticed the viewed number before...
AruanaRiva
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Atlus, Harada, Night game is the new Alliance!!!
Dunno why but as usual. I feel DQ will still be very Japan oriented vs Global here. THe hype for this game outside does not feel much around,.
DQ on pc is a recent thing and they've been late at that. With this new release, they can better establish the brand there
It's not that recent though - the original XI was up there since 2018 until it was delisted in favor of XI S when that came along - neither did poorly by any means but they didn't exactly set the world on fire. The franchise still seems far too Japan centric for that to happen. (And of course there is a slate of spinoffs that are on Steam as well, although those seem largely irrelevant)
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Legs are generally good for a lot of these JRPGs on Steam, so I really can't imagine we're sitting a few years after launch and it isn't at least a few hundred thousand.
DQ and FF, and a lesser extent SaGa, tend to just sell and sell and sell for years post launch, which is why they do all of these Unreal and Unity remakes that actually run well.
And in terms of launch, Emerald Beyond peak concurrence was 5x Scarlet Grace's, despite seemingly doing worse overall. Time of day made it seem like the majority of Steam sales were indeed Japan.
Not sure how DQXI is split on SteamDB, but it's like 300-500k on Steam combined which I think is pretty great.
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I don't think no PS4 will be a huge impact but it will eat into overall PS sales. I actually think Switch would steal more from PS5 sales than PS4 ones.
As for overall sales I think we'll see 1 million in Japan this year and something like 300K worldwide. Eventually the LTD might crawl to 2 million after they rebundle it next year as a special edition with 1 and 2 remake.
As for overall sales I think we'll see 1 million in Japan this year and something like 300K worldwide. Eventually the LTD might crawl to 2 million after they rebundle it next year as a special edition with 1 and 2 remake.
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How do you just make it more popular? Nintendo publishing deals have been successful, but the games are a huge mismatch for Western RPG tastes. These days it is like going back over a decade in terms of plot presentation, game structure, and RPG customization mechanics. You're acting like it is just a dial they can turn and not something they've been trying to do for literally 35 years and sort of failing at, but then DQXI was a gargantuan success in the West by JRPG standards. Nintendo publishing deals seem like they paid off, which is why a DQX Offline localization is something that might show up in the Direct tomorrow.
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I'm not saying that DQ will ever be huge in the west, but right now the series is more niche than stuff like fire emblem and tales of series in the west.
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If we're going by the regional split, sure, but DQ9 and DQ11 Western sales (by revenue?) were likely comparable to or greater than Tales or FE. DQ11 doing 2M in the West is huge, given that Tales and FE have never had a game that substantially surpassed 4M globally period.
DQ11 has sold 5M in Japan.
In West and Asia, probably 1.5M.
Dragon Quest XI - Wikipedia
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- He/Him
DQ11 has sold 5M in Japan.
In West and Asia, probably 1.5M.
Dragon Quest XI - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
Those numbers are 3 years old. It's had great legs. Either way the point remains that 1.5-2M are greater than all but one or two games out of each of the other franchises stated. Nearly every single game in their 30 year histories are below 2M globally, so any number remotely close to 2M is going to be larger Western sales.
Only Three Houses and Arise are even worth indulging the comparison, but all three seem close. Going back to the 00s, DQ9 easily exceeded the other two franchises in the West.
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DQ has had a couple of good performing entries in the West - but it's extremely inconsistent chiefly because of S-E's poor marketing and previous lack of work to set up entry points for newcomers and build on them (which you need to do when trying to expand a series with so many numbered and spinoff games). When Nintendo steps in (DQ9, DQ11S) you can see the difference in performance, just like observing Octopath 1->2.
1) Waited for a late port
2) Had S-E delist the already late port you bought, replacing it the Switch version (another flavour of late port) with no discount for you to upgrade to, which has the combination of additional content but worse art assets than the original PC release, making "upgrading" a mixed bag
3) Waited at this point 6+ years for another mainline game to appear, with the period in between filled with spinoffs (not all though, no DQ Monsters, that's an exclusive) of highly variable quality, some of which are day one and some are late ports, and some even released in reverse order (DQ Builders)
That is a labyrinth of nonsense that no casual customer can be expected to make sense of to buy and play a videogame series. You can immediately make DQ more popular by not doing the above and instead doing the really obvious things multiple other Japanese publishers have done to improve performance in the West:
-Actually localising your games for the West at all (DQX) and releasing them in a timely fashion, simultaneously preferably
-Make other mainline games readily available on modern platforms, especially when you've already produced modern mobile ports
-Don't make exclusives out of games that would run on any modern platform (DQM) when you've previously directed customers that you're releasing games on a multiplatform basis
This is really basic stuff that S-E have been either unwilling or unable to do, with the financial results to show for it. Hopefully the new leadership at both DQ and at the exec level helps, DQ3 certainly has had a more sane prerelease period and launch strategy so far, which is positive.
If the current state of DQ in the West is the sum total of S-E's efforts then I think those efforts are the source of the problem, above anything intrinsic to Western customers. If you hypothetically bought into DQ on Steam with DQ11 on release you have:
1) Waited for a late port
2) Had S-E delist the already late port you bought, replacing it the Switch version (another flavour of late port) with no discount for you to upgrade to, which has the combination of additional content but worse art assets than the original PC release, making "upgrading" a mixed bag
3) Waited at this point 6+ years for another mainline game to appear, with the period in between filled with spinoffs (not all though, no DQ Monsters, that's an exclusive) of highly variable quality, some of which are day one and some are late ports, and some even released in reverse order (DQ Builders)
That is a labyrinth of nonsense that no casual customer can be expected to make sense of to buy and play a videogame series. You can immediately make DQ more popular by not doing the above and instead doing the really obvious things multiple other Japanese publishers have done to improve performance in the West:
-Actually localising your games for the West at all (DQX) and releasing them in a timely fashion, simultaneously preferably
-Make other mainline games readily available on modern platforms, especially when you've already produced modern mobile ports
-Don't make exclusives out of games that would run on any modern platform (DQM) when you've previously directed customers that you're releasing games on a multiplatform basis
This is really basic stuff that S-E have been either unwilling or unable to do, with the financial results to show for it. Hopefully the new leadership at both DQ and at the exec level helps, DQ3 certainly has had a more sane prerelease period and launch strategy so far, which is positive.
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If anything, SE has been rewarded for their bullshit due to double dippers and benefitting from Nintendo's publishing deal. Blaming their Financials on DQ11's release schedule is just plain lazy garbage. DQM doing over a million given everything about the game is an absurd over performance. Ports of it will come and continue to sell, too.
Ports of older mainline games are coming, but it is unreasonable to expect a series to average more than 1 remake per year.
-Read again, I did not "blame their financials on DQ11"
-Double dippers are not a significant source of income unless you are intending to maximally scalp a small customer base rather than grow. You reach way more users by maximising the revenue you achieve from a single marketing spend and point of release, rather than trying to address disparate groups of users at different points in time.
-DQ is not "overperforming" - it's a massively significant videogame series featuring designs from a literally world-renowned artist which is supposed to be a key pillar of S-E's business, it's Western performance is poor in this context and inconsistent in general
-Yeah, ports will come - and then they'll underperform as well, as late ports tend to do
-It is in fact completely reasonable to expect more than a release schedule of (partially exclusive) spinoffs in the 6+ years since the last mainline game in a series, when there are gigantic gaps in availability of the rest of the series that sit unfilled to this day
-They are "benefitting from Nintendo's publishing deal" insofar as they are tying themselves to a single platform holder to achieve a successful marketing and release strategy, with all the disadvantages that result from that (what happens if they don't keep getting a deal? The drop from Octopath 1 to 2). Their peers can seemingly manage to distribute and market software without doing this
And like ~80-90% of those 1M sales came from Japan/Asia. West didn't care much about the game.
I don't think you can make DQ more popular in the west without changing either the genre or presentation. I hear more praise for DQ heroes and DQ Builders spinoffs in the west than the mainline series. As pretty as 11 was it plays like an old-school turn based game which I'm not saying is bad, it's just not something JRPGs fans in the west want I guess. At least not without all the flashiness.
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Yup, I totally agree.
DQB got more port focus on Steam because it is way more in line with Western tastes (and because they were wildly cheaper ports than are necessary for higher quality than for the 6 MIA DS/3DS entries). The 200k DQB2 did on Steam is better than most of the older mainline games did in the West, and probably better than the 3DS remake of 7 did in the West too.
DQ3 is what the series does well in distilled form without shoving in bad cutscenes, repetitive locations, and a hideous soundtrack, which is why I'm optimistic for it.
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- Pronouns
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So some relevant announcements today:
- DQ3 has 8 sprites per Class, voice acting options , customizable sprite colors, a new Class, and related monster catching(?) mechanics that will be announced later.
- DQM3 is getting a PC port in a few weeks, $40. Looks more visually pleasing and hopefully it will be easy to mod in a better soundtrack. I'd expect a weak launch but will probably be at 100k-200k a year from now.
They have 8 Upcoming games on Steam, 3 of which are DQ and one of those is a double pack.
- DQ3 has 8 sprites per Class, voice acting options , customizable sprite colors, a new Class, and related monster catching(?) mechanics that will be announced later.
- DQM3 is getting a PC port in a few weeks, $40. Looks more visually pleasing and hopefully it will be easy to mod in a better soundtrack. I'd expect a weak launch but will probably be at 100k-200k a year from now.
They have 8 Upcoming games on Steam, 3 of which are DQ and one of those is a double pack.
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- Pronouns
- He
Much more Chinese focused that i expectedDQB2 Top 5 steam reviews
Simple Chinese - 45.7%
English - 27.5%
Traditional Chinese - 7.45%
Korean - 5.88%
Japanese - 4.36%
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #77
Maybe the way for DQ to grow beyond Japan is through China...DQB2 Top 5 steam reviews
Simple Chinese - 45.7%
English - 27.5%
Traditional Chinese - 7.45%
Korean - 5.88%
Japanese - 4.36%
I'm changing my prediction for this FY.
Over 1.5m in Japan, a bit over 0.5m WW, total >2m.
Preorders in Japan are really strong but I'm not sure I'm seeing much movement overseas, it will depend on reviews and WoM.
I'm completely clueless about Asia and I think the potential for overperformance may come from there.
Sub 3m seems impossible unless SE releases the game and never puts it on sale, but thats unlikely especially since they are handling the publishing themselves everywhere.
Game is gonna get post launch boost from the Switch 2 launch, 1+2 releases and marketing cycle, as well as the road towards DQ XII.
Assuming SE is somewhat reasonable in terms of pricing in the next couple years, especially in the west it should reach the higher ceiling in terms of sales expectations.
Game is gonna get post launch boost from the Switch 2 launch, 1+2 releases and marketing cycle, as well as the road towards DQ XII.
Assuming SE is somewhat reasonable in terms of pricing in the next couple years, especially in the west it should reach the higher ceiling in terms of sales expectations.
I think it's going to have very strong legs just like DQ XIS. So over 5M in the end with over 2M this year.
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Glad to see people realizing the potential of this after previews.
It can be really hard to predict launch and LTD on this kind of thing because it is a game that is going to sell forever. Like, 4 years from now, it will still be selling like 200k per year or more, which is why SE is spending so much money doing a full 100% good budget remake in Unreal.
The original game was 1M on the first day (the first videogame to do so) and 3M in the first week, and then 2 and maaaaaybe 3 of the remakes/ports also ended up over 1M. Like FF7Remake, it will never be "done" selling and is going to be a meaningful evergreen presence for years.
It can be really hard to predict launch and LTD on this kind of thing because it is a game that is going to sell forever. Like, 4 years from now, it will still be selling like 200k per year or more, which is why SE is spending so much money doing a full 100% good budget remake in Unreal.
The original game was 1M on the first day (the first videogame to do so) and 3M in the first week, and then 2 and maaaaaybe 3 of the remakes/ports also ended up over 1M. Like FF7Remake, it will never be "done" selling and is going to be a meaningful evergreen presence for years.
This will be a monster on Switch in Japan -- I wouldn't discount it selling 2+ million this year in Japan alone. A simultaneous PC release can only help significantly so I'd be shocked if this didn't do at a minimum 5m over its life.
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Thr fact that this is wholly double Zelda EoW's Famitsu "most anticipated" votes despite being months away I think paints a picture to be optimistic about.
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I think we have plenty of evidence to be bullish on this one.
- Pronouns
- he/him
I mean
a) it's Famitsu polls
but also
b) it's DQ vs a 2D Zelda, it should do way better in Japan?
I don't know much about DQ III. It's one of the most beloved games in the series, so it should do well in Japan by default. Around 1.5m, possibly up to 2m.
Rest of the world is a different story, though. Being named DQ III makes it hard to market as the beginning of a trilogy that is being followed up on by DQ I and DQ II, because at the end of the day this has never been a popular franchise in the West. The way menus are set up in DQ games isn't particularly user-friendly (meaning it's a bit at odds with how most other JRPGs are set up) and I don't expect the developers to break with this tradition; the same thought holds true for other questionable staples of the series like tons of encounters and a progressively worse payout of EXP which makes DQ games usually a slog to play.
I don't see it selling a million or more outside of Japan. The split between Japan and the rest of the world will be something in the range of 70/30 to 75/25. For better or worse, this is still the same old Dragon Quest. Lifetime sales of 2.2m to 3m, so I'll settle for 2.5m to 3m in the poll.
Rest of the world is a different story, though. Being named DQ III makes it hard to market as the beginning of a trilogy that is being followed up on by DQ I and DQ II, because at the end of the day this has never been a popular franchise in the West. The way menus are set up in DQ games isn't particularly user-friendly (meaning it's a bit at odds with how most other JRPGs are set up) and I don't expect the developers to break with this tradition; the same thought holds true for other questionable staples of the series like tons of encounters and a progressively worse payout of EXP which makes DQ games usually a slog to play.
I don't see it selling a million or more outside of Japan. The split between Japan and the rest of the world will be something in the range of 70/30 to 75/25. For better or worse, this is still the same old Dragon Quest. Lifetime sales of 2.2m to 3m, so I'll settle for 2.5m to 3m in the poll.
Ironically it’s ONLY double. Going by the prediction league EoW average prediction is 200k and people are expecting ps5 sku to be close to that.
can’t wait for prediction league to start as that will be fun to see both sku thoughts
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- He
Any T-Bone bold claims?
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- Any/All
People expect the PS5 to hit what? That's gonna be a wild week, then
Of course, looking at this game as the most recent DQ installment
01./00. [NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters: The Dark Prince # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2023.12.01} (¥6.980) - 346.583 / NEW <80-100%>
With the ps5 sku we can see the game going above and beyond.
imo this is what I see the sales being on the pessimistic/safe/optimistic/Bold side!
floor aka pessimistic
[PS5] 100k-125k
[NSW] 350k-400k
[NSW] 350k-400k
Safe bet
[PS5] 125k-175k
[NSW] 400k-500k
Optimistic
[PS5] 175k-250k
[NSW] 500k-650k
[NSW] 500k-650k
BOLD (these are the ones I would make threads on)
[PS5] 300k-350k
[NSW] 800k-1000k
[NSW] 800k-1000k
Edit: keep in mind these are retail only
- Pronouns
- He/Him
This is a good analysis.
I think it will crush DQM3, at least maybe there's some room for analysis on Remakes vs their original versions. We're almost certainly going to have a worse launch than the original by merit of the original being an impossibly high bar (3M week one in 1987), but.... how much does any of this matter? FF7Remake mostly held up, losing some on Japan but gaining due to simultaneous global, and then on track to outsell the original.
I'm expecting a ton of huge advertisements that will be starting in Japan really soon. Looking forward to the overly sentimental nostalgia bait. There's going to be a LOT.
It was the best selling turn-based RPG of the entire 1980s, and has firmly cemented itself as the go-to RPG of the whole decade. There's a huge range of possible scenarios and this is, I think, the oldest videogame ever to get a serious budget remake. Metroid was also a 1987 release but Zero Mission was both way lower budget and closer to the original than to the present. There's not really any good comparison to estimate what this will do.
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OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #94
Re-upping the thread as we are now 1 week before Dragon Quest 3 launch!
Looking at the previous poll results, seems like everyone's expectations grew bullish over the past 6 weeks, especially thanks to Japanese preorders.
One thing of note is that the review embargo is lifting on November 13th.
Looking at the previous poll results, seems like everyone's expectations grew bullish over the past 6 weeks, especially thanks to Japanese preorders.
One thing of note is that the review embargo is lifting on November 13th.
AruanaRiva
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Top JP Predictor
Top JP Predictor
Atlus, Harada, Night game is the new Alliance!!!
I dont doubt DQ ability to sell in Japan. But i also don't believe much on DQ ability to sell outside Japan lol. At most maybe 1 to 2m from outside japan?
OP
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- Thread starter
- #96
It doesnt need much more than 1m from overseas to alreay reach the highest tier of the original poll (3m+).
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- He
What do you mean hahahahah
