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What is the domestic and worldwide potential of Dragon Quest 3 HD-2D ?

How much can DQ3 HD-2D sell ? (give the JP/WW split in the thread!)

  • <1m

    Votes: 1 0.7%

  • 1m-1.5m

    Votes: 16 11.9%

  • 1.5m-2m

    Votes: 32 23.7%

  • 2m-2.5m

    Votes: 22 16.3%

  • 2.5m-3m

    Votes: 19 14.1%

  • 3m+

    Votes: 45 33.3%
  • Total voters
    135
  • Poll closed .
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
Archivist Genius Staff
Dragon-Quest-3-HD-2D-Remake.jpg


Square Enix confirmed today that the HD-2D remake of the beloved Dragon Quest entry would be coming this November 14th, 2024 on NSW/PS5/XB/PC. The game was highly anticipated since its initial announcement three years ago, with around 5.3M views on the reveal trailer.

Reveal trailer


Nintendo Direct trailer


There also have been hands-on with media, which were released following the Direct:



Dragon Quest 3 HD-2D Remake is launching later this year, and after going hands-on, we can't wait to play more.
Click to expand...
www.windowscentral.com

This Square Enix RPG remake is a beautiful game with smart improvements — and it's launching later in 2024

This Dragon Quest 3 HD-2D Remake looks beautiful, is a delight to play, and is launching later this year.
www.windowscentral.com www.windowscentral.com

This release has things in its favor:
  • Nintendo marketing
  • But also launching on all platforms
  • No DQ remake in the West for quite a long time
  • HD 2D charm
  • Holiday prime spot
However there are some things that could hinder it too:
  • No PS4 release (might limit a bit the potential in Asia)
  • Lackluster sales for the franchise in the West.
  • HD-2D fatigue ? (Octopath 2 sales declined)
  • Busy launch window (especially in the West)
So factoring in everything, how much do you think DQ3R will sell ? Don't hesitate to give a domestic/WW breakdown ;)
 
Over 3 Million, but it will take a decade of 50% off sales. It will do over one million this year in Japan and make it to two eventually.
 
I feel like it's gonna overperform compared to the usual DQ expectations in the west, so I'm saying 1.5m-2m this fiscal year. I'm thinking a 50:50 split Japan/worldwide.

It's very optimistic however, but I suspect DQ3 may be a bit "oversaturated" in Japan by the many re-releases on basically every platform existing and I think it's gonna be a "brand new game" everywhere else.
 
Reminder that the first remake of DQ III is turning 30 in a few years. The second one on the GBC is old enough to drink in Japan. The third one (really the fourth and the second mobile version but whatever) on Smartphones is a decade old.

It always does well in Japan, with the low point probably being the GBC release as one of the last big titles released on the Game Boy in the country.

This is the first time they've done something new and potentially exciting with the game since the SFC version.
 
I would say over 1 million in Japan this holiday, and 2 million world wide by end of the year. Life time at least 3 million.
 
Although it will remain faithful to the original's essence, it seems like it will also include new content:

Although we received no hard details about what it might entail, Hayasaka did reveal that Dragon Quest III HD-2D Remake will include additional story scenarios written under Horii's supervision. I don't know in what form these manifest, whether they are more isolated narratives or intertwined with the existing story of Dragon Quest III, but fans who have played Dragon Quest III for years, if not decades, will definitely have something to look forward to here.
Click to expand...

Dragon Quest III HD-2D Remake looks to please fans both new and old — Preview | RPG Site

Dragon Quest III is one of the most beloved classic RPGs ever made, and Square Enix now has to play the balancing act of appealing to new fans while doing right by the original.
www.rpgsite.net www.rpgsite.net
 
I am noticing that I am getting tired of these remakes with this art style. It's getting way too generic. There has to be a redundant effect starting to kick in with these RPG remakes soon.
 
I don't expect it to be a "breakout hit" WW -- majority of sales, as always with Dragon Quest, will be generated in Japan.

In Japan it can sell up to 1,5M, i think. Game's gonna be big, that's for sure.
 
I voted for 1m-1.5m but I will love to be wrong

Also, I prefer the UI in the old trailer compared to the new one that looks like it's from a mobile game.
 
This feels like a 2m WW game when it is all said and done. I don't think that there is enough momentum with the franchise to give it an early boost at launch. It will reach 2m over a long period of time.
 
It will be the second best selling HD-2D game (after Octopath). So around 3 million seems right. With a split of 67/33 Japan/WW respectively.
 
I would say 2/2.5 mil with a 1.5/1.8mil from Japan and the rest from the West (so Japanese sales more than double the Western ones) imho (around 500/700k outside Japan)
 
Gimmick said:
I am noticing that I am getting tired of these remakes with this art style. It's getting way too generic. There has to be a redundant effect starting to kick in with these RPG remakes soon.
Click to expand...

The first and only one before this wildly outsold its original game.

sfortunato said:
Is it also the first DQ without a Toriyama's artwork? The key art doesn't look like from him/his studio.
Click to expand...

Almost certainly one of the main Octopath artists.
 
I totally see this doing 1M at the end of its life in Japan (DQ3 fatigue and HD-2D was never really that popular there) and RotW matching it for a nice 2M.

The first and only one before this wildly outsold its original game.
Click to expand...
Thera are 2 HD-2D remakes no? Live a Live and Star Ocean 2
 
Drblitzk said:
I totally see this doing 1M at the end of its life in Japan (DQ3 fatigue and HD-2D was never really that popular there) and RotW matching it for a nice 2M.


Thera are 2 HD-2D remakes no? Live a Live and Star Ocean 2
Click to expand...

SO2 is 3Dx2D according to Square Enix. They don't consider it the same style and it doesn't share development resources as far as I know.
 
I think it depends on how much they expand it and/or how deep and how fast they discount it. It'll obviously do very good in Japan, but for the west it'll probably have to show a bit of value for the asking price... as DQ3 is decidedly barebones by current RPG standards.
 
I am look at 2m-2.5m all things considered.
Most of that, about 1.5 to 2m, of those units will be in Japan.
I think the rest of Asia will do well, about 750k to 1m maybe.
I don't think that you will see much of a change for the US market and I don't know what to thing about Europe & the UK.
Lelouch0612 said:
This release has things in its favor:
  • Nintendo marketing
  • But also launching on all platforms
  • No DQ remake in the West for quite a long time
  • HD 2D charm
  • Holiday prime spot
However there are some things that could hinder it too:
  • No PS4 release (might limit a bit the potential in Asia)
Click to expand...
That might hurt it more in Europe if I am to be honest.
Lelouch0612 said:
  • Lackluster sales for the franchise in the West.
Click to expand...
As I said, I expect things in the US to be anemic, at best, when it comes to moving units. That said, I suspect that it might change when the Trilogy is completed. A long shot but it might.
Lelouch0612 said:
  • HD-2D fatigue ? (Octopath 2 sales declined)
Click to expand...
I will be honest, while it was a decline in Octopath 2... it wasn't much of one. I think that there is just enough distant from Octopath 2 that this might be more of a blip.
Lelouch0612 said:
  • Busy launch window (especially in the West)
Click to expand...
Some things at Square just never change and this is definitely one of those. It should, it hampers them.
 
I'm seeing 1 million-ish in Japan and somewhere between 500k and 1 million in the rest of the world. I hope I'm wrong and it does better than that, but I don't think there'll be much nostalgia for it outside of Japan and that's a big deal.

Adding in: I actually think Dragon Quest I&II HD-2D Remake might do better outside of Japan than this DQ3 remake.
 
rainbowblight said:
I'm seeing 1 million-ish in Japan and somewhere between 500k and 1 million in the rest of the world. I hope I'm wrong and it does better than that, but I don't think there'll be much nostalgia for it outside of Japan and that's a big deal.

Adding in: I actually think Dragon Quest I&II HD-2D Remake might do better outside of Japan than this DQ3 remake.
Click to expand...

I can see it doing quite well if they do a $59,99 pack of the 3 games at some point.
 
Well considering the HD2D decline.. I’d say DQ could really bring some numbers back up but not sure exactly how much. The west will be tricky id say 300K-500K. Domestically maybe 1M retail. WW 2-3M
 
The game looks gorgeous and way more appealing to me than octopath traveler even though I tend to not be interested by the recent main Dragon Quest games.

Dragon Quest 3 is the most beloved game of the series in Japan right? This should be enough to put it beyond 2 millions copies sold in Japan alone.
 
Don't underestimate the curiosity of japanese zoomers who have heard about this all-time great through siblings and the internet, but don't want to bother with the crusty version on the eShop.

2 million in Japan, 700k-800k overseas
 
I am going to be conservative and say 1.5-2 million this year.

1-1.5 Million in Japan and 500k overseas.
 
I'll go with 2.1 Million. 1.35 Japan. 0.75 Overseas

Biggest issues I see is no PS4 version for Japan and in the west the price tag might be a little too high for most people.
 
BoktaiFan said:
I'll go with 2.1 Million. 1.35 Japan. 0.75 Overseas

Biggest issues I see is no PS4 version for Japan and in the west the price tag might be a little too high for most people.
Click to expand...
Game is on Switch in Japan, lack of PS4 version will have next to no impact.

Price Tag is standard and not really to high for the audience they are targeting. It's s HD 2D Remaster of Classic RPG.

Don't forget that they are likely to be more aggressive with this one in terms of sales promotion compared to past titles that might have been Nintendo published in the West.

A quality 25h Remake will be appealing for the old JPG fanbase and people that want to get into DQ without having to spend the +100h 11S or +80 of an OT2. I think a shorter JRPG of that kind with these production value can be an attractive value proposition in this day and age, where time is limited and people finish less and less games.
 
ILikeFeet said:
I don't think the lack of a PS4 version would really register anywhere
Click to expand...
Really? PS4 provided a signifigant amount of the copies sold in Japan for LAD 8, P3R, Elden Ring, and Hogwarts to name a few recent games. I believe Sony recently said that half of the MAUs are PS4 gamers.
 
BoktaiFan said:
Really? PS4 provided a signifigant amount of the copies sold in Japan for LAD 8, P3R, Elden Ring, and Hogwarts to name a few recent games. I believe Sony recently said that half of the MAUs are PS4 gamers.
Click to expand...
I mean, all of those games aren't on Switch (hogwarts came very late). I can't say how Switch would increase sales (or not), I do think it would simply eat playstation sales. for Dragon Quest, I expect it to be very lopsided
 
ILikeFeet said:
I mean, all of those games aren't on Switch (hogwarts came very late). I can't say how Switch would increase sales (or not), I do think it would simply eat playstation sales. for Dragon Quest, I expect it to be very lopsided
Click to expand...
The closest comparison that was also on switch was crisis core. And even that game had a very even split between PS4 and PS5.

Don't get me wrong I think the switch will for sure be the lead platform in Japan by a wide margin, but I also think there is still a contingent of PS4 only/primary players in Japan going by the splits I've seen.
 
3m+. I think Japan wil overperform for this game for sure. Especially if the new content is really good.
 
BoktaiFan said:
The closest comparison that was also on switch was crisis core. And even that game had a very even split between PS4 and PS5.

Don't get me wrong I think the switch will for sure be the lead platform in Japan by a wide margin, but I also think there is still a contingent of PS4 only/primary players in Japan going by the splits I've seen.
Click to expand...
I don't think there is a big audience of DQ fans who are PS4 only and don't have access to the Switch.

Switch is the biggest system Japan ever had. DQ3 could be an exclusive and the overall numbers would barely change.

Only difference now is that people that own multiple systems might get it on PS5 because of better performance.
 
BoktaiFan said:
The closest comparison that was also on switch was crisis core. And even that game had a very even split between PS4 and PS5.
Click to expand...

Final Fantasy is more associated with PlayStation, while Dragon Quest is not. That's why Square Enix still producing some Dragon Quest games exclusively to Nintendo platforms even today, like Dragon Quest Monsters 3, which sold 1M copies in first month, and Switch versions of recent releases like Dragon Quest X Offline outselling PlayStation versions 2-3:1.

Switch is the biggest system Japan ever had. DQ3 could be an exclusive and the overall numbers would barely change.

Only difference now is that people that own multiple systems might get it on PS5 because of better performance.
Click to expand...

💯
 
A lot of this game's sales potential, mainly in the West, is contingent upon whether there's an autumn direct which features a Nintendo-like overview trailer which goes at length to explain:

1) The legacy of this title
2) The fact that this is a good jumping in point, despite the 3 in the title

That will help counteract the negative factors:

1) Square-Enix' own poor marketing
2) The release timing is quite poor when you combine S-E putting out a lot of JRPGs themselves in the 2nd half of the year (Romancing Saga 2/Visions of Mana/Fantasian/DQ3), then sharing a holiday with a brand new Mario RPG releasing literally 1 week before (EDIT: I forgot Metaphor in October too, what a fucking mess). Although I think S-E's other JRPGs will be the ones that suffer as a result of this more than DQ3. There's a whole separate conversation to be had about this kind of scheduling because I don't think any company could convince large numbers of people to buy an MMO expansion with a recurring subscription, then 4 games in the same genre between August and Christmas. If they're making it difficult for their most hardcore fans to financially support these titles there is zero chance these can all succeed in the mass market. This isn't even their 1st experience of this, although not as bad as 2022 by a long shot.
3) An obtuse release order that you have to go out of your way to explain to customers (I don't think this is a major issue, but it is a factor when breaking into the mass market)
 
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ILikeFeet said:
I mean, all of those games aren't on Switch (hogwarts came very late). I can't say how Switch would increase sales (or not), I do think it would simply eat playstation sales. for Dragon Quest, I expect it to be very lopsided
Click to expand...

cw_sasuke said:
I don't think there is a big audience of DQ fans who are PS4 only and don't have access to the Switch.

Switch is the biggest system Japan ever had. DQ3 could be an exclusive and the overall numbers would barely change.

Only difference now is that people that own multiple systems might get it on PS5 because of better performance.
Click to expand...
Dragon Quest X Offline still put out good numbers on PS4, even if it has been 2 years admittedly.

090./017. [NSW] Dragon Quest X: Rise of the Five Tribes Offline # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2022.09.15} (¥7.800) - 36.238 / 312.774 (-87%) (148.090 <96,28%>)

328./051. [PS4] Dragon Quest X: Rise of the Five Tribes Offline # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2022.09.15} (¥7.800) - 5.680 / 92.400 (-93%) (48.359 <93,55%>)

241./090. [PS5] Dragon Quest X: Rise of the Five Tribes Offline # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2022.09.15} (¥7.800) - 10.527 / 53.322 (-75%) (28.427 <84,64%>)
 
Lelouch0612 said:
Dragon Quest X Offline still put out good numbers on PS4, even if it has been 2 years admittedly.

090./017. [NSW] Dragon Quest X: Rise of the Five Tribes Offline # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2022.09.15} (¥7.800) - 36.238 / 312.774 (-87%) (148.090 <96,28%>)

328./051. [PS4] Dragon Quest X: Rise of the Five Tribes Offline # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2022.09.15} (¥7.800) - 5.680 / 92.400 (-93%) (48.359 <93,55%>)

241./090. [PS5] Dragon Quest X: Rise of the Five Tribes Offline # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2022.09.15} (¥7.800) - 10.527 / 53.322 (-75%) (28.427 <84,64%>)
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No one is saying that a PS4 version wouldnt sell, it just wouldnt have a big impact on the overall sales.

The regular DQ fan has access to a Switch. Yes, if they own a PS4 in addition to the Switch they might get the PS4 version because of better performance, online or because they own other DQ games on that system already. But if the PS4 version didnt exist and they didnt have the choice, they would just get the Switch version.

PS4 is being skipped, because this skews the sales more towards the Switch as platform and its the next best thing SE could offer Nintendo without making it an exclusive, yet still getting marketing support from the systems platform holder where its likely gonna perform the best.

Just an example scenario were the overall Switch/PS4 sales result in 1m.
800k being on Switch, 200k on PS4.

In the scenario we have where PS4 is being skipped, the overall sales of just the Switch version reach 950k.
So yes, they might have lost a couple sales to some die hard Sony/PS4 only fans that dont own a Switch or dont wanna play it there - but impact on overall sales is small because its pretty much assumed that everyone in Japan who would be interested in this type of game (classic, HD2D,DQ) owns a Switch.


I actually can see a late PS4 port still happen, to milk the last sales potential a while later - but for the initial release its clear that unless you own a new-gen system or PC, they want to push you towards the Switch version. It makes sense from a business point of view.
 
BoktaiFan said:
The closest comparison that was also on switch was crisis core. And even that game had a very even split between PS4 and PS5.

Don't get me wrong I think the switch will for sure be the lead platform in Japan by a wide margin, but I also think there is still a contingent of PS4 only/primary players in Japan going by the splits I've seen.
Click to expand...

CC was two years earlier, and FF tends to do disproportionately well on PS platforms in a a pattern that absolutely does not hold up for their other IPs.

Companies aren't making decisions out of their ass. They have hard numbers on the decline and estimates about what fraction of remaining PS4 sales would just go to the other platforms (the vast majority)
 
If we're talking lifetime sales, then yeah I think it's gonna be way more than 3M. It's probably gonna do 2M just in Japan, possibly more. Might take a minute to get there, though I imagine 3 will also get a nice sales boost once 1+2 comes out next year as well.
 
GoldenFingers said:
Companies aren't making decisions out of their ass. They have hard numbers on the decline and estimates about what fraction of remaining PS4 sales would just go to the other platforms (the vast majority)
Click to expand...
If this were true then no company would post a lose or go out of business. Companies are not infallible and we have many many example to the contrary, but that would derail the thread.
 
PS4 share has gone down from 2 years ago, but I feel for not so hardcore games like this it's still a sizable share of the PS fanbase, so while the Switch may pick up some of the slack, I think it's still a good 10-15% overall loss for this game by not having that version, and a good 25-35% loss of PS market share.

Edit: And those may be small percentages, but when talking a game which potential is in the million, those stop being small.
 
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