What's your estimate sales numbers for MK8D without bundles?
Subtract somewhere between 8-10mil off the total software figure with this year inclusive. Pretty great for a bundle primarily only trotted out during holiday periods, all things considered.
The biggest trick in this discussion is comparing what has largely been a seasonal bundle with bundling Nintendo did with NSMBWii, which was readily available regardless of season every year since the first year after the game’s launch, in some configuration or another. The difference in software sales contributions is going to be dramatically different as a result of that. And despite folks getting into the minutia of its overall contribution to sales, mentioning Kart is only to highlight that, yes, bundling does have an impact on a final sales figure, even when muted by diminished availability.
And despite claims seemingly made to the contrary in this thread, a free game with purchase can and does induce a purchase, even in people who wouldn’t have considered buying the bundled game separately otherwise. Because as insanely popular as Mario Kart is, the game is not 1-to-1 with console purchases (at least outside of Canada, anyways LOL), so there are people for whom it holds diminished value and might only take it if it’s offered free. If this tactic didn’t work, marketing people wouldn’t use it, it’s that simple.
Two things wrong here:
1) These people that purchased this bundle are obviously interested in Mario Kart hence the purchase of this bundle which isn't widely available because we are talking Black Friday and a few other days like Mario day in March of the bundled consoles availability. So assuming the majority of these people would in fact have purchased a Switch and this game with aggressive price cuts separately is hardly unreasonable.
2) You are assuming more aggressive pricing doesn't make Mario Kart more attractive to current Switch owners that haven't purchased the game. That bundle is only attractive to people that haven't purchased a Switch. People that have purchased a Switch would find more attractive pricing of the game more desirable.
That's the issue with speculation, you can't close off other possibilities. All of those people that bought the game bundled don't have to buy separately in an alternative scenario but the game could replace them by targeting current Switch owners that haven't purchased the game and are attracted to the more aggressive pricing.
If you look back, you were actually arguing that MK8DX would land at the same sales number or greater without bundling (because you were arguing it was not statistically certain that it wouldn’t). In order for that to be true, YES, every person who bought MK8DX in a bundle would absolutely be required to buy it to equal the same volume.
This is because in the same time period these bundles have been sold, MK8DX is already discounted on a yearly basis at least twice per year (around 30% off). So for the folks looking for it at a discount, that discount already exists. If you expect lower than that, it tells me you forgot we're talking about Nintendo.
And, as mentioned above, "discount" isn't the same as "free". Never has been, never will be. You will always get more people to buy something regardless of interest in the software bundled when they effectively pay nothing extra to get it compared to what is typically available for sale, a game-free console.
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