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Updated sales numbers for Switch titles: Princess Peach: Showtime! (1.22M), Mario vs. Donkey Kong (1.12M), and more

The TOTK outcome was entirely predictable when you look at iterative sequels on the same Nintendo console. Mario Galaxy 1 > Galaxy 2, DKC trilogy on SNES, OOT > MM, etc. There was never a serious reason to think TOTK would pass BOTW. It's still a huge success, of course.

I wonder if the next open world Zelda on Switch 2 will struggle to also come close to BOTW.
Splatoon 3 is soon going to surpass Splatoon 2, Pokemon SV, is soon going to surpass Pokemon SS, there was a chance that Zelda had a similar outcome on the Switch, but turns out fighting against what a lot of people consider the GOAT is more difficult than anticipated lmao.

BOTW sold 750k in this quarter 2 years ago and 810k last year.

TOTK + BOTW this quarter is 570k. Hmmmm.

TOTK is a huge success but the legs are bad and it has really damaged BOTW legs as well so far. Not what I wanted to see from my #1 and #2 games of all time, but even if they stopped selling now they're monumental successes.

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe continues to defy gravity and nice little debuts for Mario vs DK and Princess Peach.
Evergreens also have up and downs, BOTW accelerated after COVID, Every Mario game accelerated after the Movie, maybe the upcoming Zelda movie will help both BOTW, TOTK and whatever the next Zelda is called.
 
Splatoon 3 is soon going to surpass Splatoon 2, Pokemon SV, is soon going to surpass Pokemon SS, there was a chance that Zelda had a similar outcome on the Switch, but turns out fighting against what a lot of people consider the GOAT is more difficult than anticipated lmao.
I'd argue that same console sequels only ever have a shot at usurping their predecessors if they manage to truly reinvent into something that leans wholesale into mass appeal. Grand Theft Auto remains the best example of that with GTAV's meteoric success rendering IV a footnote through an even vaster/immersive multi-character open world experience and most notably the success of GTA Online, and all this despite releasing in the twilight years of its console generation.

Pokémon SV is arguably an emblematic case of this happening for Nintendo since despite its much maligned critical reception and technical issues, it's still the first true open world Pokémon game, and there's an appeal in that for mass market players. I'd expect it to unseat SwSh by the time Z-A is ready to drop.

Splatoon 3 conversely comes across as an outlier in that trend, and it's a strange one in general because it's monumentally overrepresented in Japan whereas the rest of the world has the usual drop off. I feel like that one can still go either way here. The 250k increase between quarters can be squarely attributed to the DLC drop, and there's not going to be more of those, so I don't expect another notable quarterly jump until the holidays. It could beat Splatoon 2 but unless a lot of evergreens get a renewed second life on Switch 2 I think it's going to be a very close race. If Nintendo are going hard on bundles this year I expect this one will be a part of it.

I thought TOTK could have had that stronger sequel appeal factor going for it because it leans fully into the TikTok generation with its user-made constructs, but it seems it needed to present itself as a lot more of a leap for that to be an inherent advantage. In this regard, it being so closely tied to BOTW certainly limits it somewhat, but clearly not by any meaningful amount with how well it's sold and how much more it might sell if Switch 2 has people returning to the Switch evergreens; especially ones that might get a performance boost.
 
It's worth noting that Scarlet & Violet, unless it suddenly goes off a cliff, will be the first time the second generation of Pokémon on a console outsold the first

GameBoy
Gen 1 (Red/Blue) - 31.38 milion
Gen 2 (Gold/Silver) - 23.7 million

DS
Gen 4 (Diamond/Pearl) - 17.67 million
Gen 5 (Black/White) - 15.64 million

3DS
Gen 6 (X/Y) - 16.73 million
Gen 7 (Sun/Moon) - 16.33 million

Switch
Gen 8 (Sword/Shield) - 26.27 million
Gen 9 (Scarlet/Violet) - 24.92 million

SWSH was at 21.1 million at this point in its life and went on to sell 5 million more. This was with BDSP and Legends imminent and then taking its lunch, like Legends Z-A will next year. SV will undoubtedly overtake
 
Evergreens also have up and downs, BOTW accelerated after COVID, Every Mario game accelerated after the Movie, maybe the upcoming Zelda movie will help both BOTW, TOTK and whatever the next Zelda is called.
I feel like COVID especially played a big role in the strong sales and longer legs of many Switch games. Those first couple of years of the pandemic were crazy, every chart was full of Nintendo games and the hardware was on fire and that's why a lot of the games released after that period seem to have disappointing legs compared to the ones that were able to ride the pandemic wave.
It's worth noting that Scarlet & Violet, unless it suddenly goes off a cliff, will be the first time the second generation of Pokémon on a console outsold the first

GameBoy
Gen 1 (Red/Blue) - 31.38 milion
Gen 2 (Gold/Silver) - 23.7 million

DS
Gen 4 (Diamond/Pearl) - 17.67 million
Gen 5 (Black/White) - 15.64 million

3DS
Gen 6 (X/Y) - 16.73 million
Gen 7 (Sun/Moon) - 16.33 million

Switch
Gen 8 (Sword/Shield) - 26.27 million
Gen 9 (Scarlet/Violet) - 24.92 million

SWSH was at 21.1 million at this point in its life and went on to sell 5 million more. This was with BDSP and Legends imminent and then taking its lunch, like Legends Z-A will next year. SV will undoubtedly overtake
Wonder how close it could get to RBG, since it seems it’ll do at least 30 million. And with a next-gen patch and ZA being a less traditional game it might even become the best-selling game, although it's not certain yet.
 
I feel like COVID especially played a big role in the strong sales and longer legs of many Switch games. Those first couple of years of the pandemic were crazy, every chart was full of Nintendo games and the hardware was on fire and that's why a lot of the games released after that period seem to have disappointing legs compared to the ones that were able to ride the pandemic wave.

Wonder how close it could get to RBG, since it seems it’ll do at least 30 million. And with a next-gen patch and ZA being a less traditional game it might even become the best-selling game, although it's not certain yet.
I think SV will plateau at 27m

If it's Switch 2 compatible with a patch and Gen 10 isn't until 2026, then 30m is possible, but I'm settling on 27m
 
You can already identify the pattern by just looking at the Zelda series.

Zelda II sold worse than I
Majoras Mask sold worse than Ocarine of Time
Spirit Tracks sold worse than Phatom Hourglass
Skyward Sword sold worse than Twilight Princess
(Triforce Heroes sold worse than A Link between Worlds, though I personally don't like comparing multiplayer-focused titles with sp ones)

I still think that Tears has a chance to come very close to BotW by releasing a dedicated Switch 2 version, but with BC being highly likely, I don't know if Ninty would go that way.
I would expect BotW and TotK to come in an upgraded double pack on Switch, but maybe I have too much faith in Nintendo not trying to sell a BotW upgraded version standalone.
 
Thoughts:

- I wanted more from Pikmin 4 but that was more me wishcasting than being realistic, given that:

Pikmin 1: 1.60m
Pikmin 2: 1.12m
Pikmin 3: 1.27m
Pikmin 3 DX: 2.23m
Pikmin 3 Deluxe reached 2.4M as of the end of 2022.
 
One game that I like to know the actually sales is Metroid Prime remastered.
Maybe it’s cross the 2 million marks until the next fiscal year.
 
I wonder what's the ceiling for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe ?

Feels like it could surpass Wii Sport's tally (82.9m).

the sky

looking-up-in-the-sky-checking-the-weather.gif
 
I wonder what's the ceiling for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe ?

Feels like it could surpass Wii Sport's tally (82.9m).
It would take another like three years if it doesn't slow down below 7M per year. Definitely possible. With the original MK8 combined it's definitely going to make it.
 
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