3M is a lock I feel.
I live everything I have seen
But..I don't see anything that could drastically change its sales potential compared to Xenoblade 2
Having the dlc as a season pass and not sold separately as Torna could make it's tail longer
Let's say 3 millions LT
Torna was also sold as part of a season pass. The separate release came later.
Surely much moreThat game's sitting pretty at 3.4m LTD as of December 2020, and has probably kept selling at a decent clip since then; surely it ended up cresting over 3.5m
That's indeed a reasonable decrease imo considering an expected natural decline + both COVID and Smash boosts fading a little, but countered with the first 30% eShop discounts. At retail in Japan Three Houses was down 47% from 2020 to 2021 and it's to be expected that the drop is smaller both digitally and in the West, so that fits quite well too.I think FETH could have sold up to 500k in 2021 with it selling over 800k in 2020.
Where I'm at with it. I see alot of excitement for it online but I cautiously regard that as a vocal minority.Staying with my prediction of: about 3mil, maybe a little less.
I don't see it catching 3H, that will end at 4 million most likely. I'd like to be surprised though
The Direct didn't allow us to really see it but it was confirmed to be open world by NoA when the game was announcedBtw do we now know if Xenoblade 3 is an open world like X or it's still zones like 1 and 2?
I thought there was a chance this could be a mistranslation or something tbh, since NoA seems to be the only division that said this afaik. Hope it's true given how they absolutely nailed the open world in X and BotWThe Direct didn't allow us to really see but it was confirmed to be open world by NoA when the game was announced
Btw do we now know if Xenoblade 3 is an open world like X or it's still zones like 1 and 2?
Yeah, that's legitimately my biggest criticism of the series.there was nothing in the direct I felt was very enticing for new players that didn't already have some amount of interest in the series. especially when getting into gameplay mechanics. mechanics on mechanics on mechanics
I agree fully with you on the fact that it looks like Xenoblade, nothing more suggest any changes that could be the trigger for a bigger audience to make the jump.I live everything I have seen
But..I don't see anything that could drastically change its sales potential compared to Xenoblade 2
Having the dlc as a season pass and not sold separately as Torna could make it's tail longer
Let's say 3 millions LT
I would predict 2.2 Million.
Since you guys seems to be expecting growth for XC3, it's worth to point out that 500k in Japan and 2.2 mi worldwide would be a decline from XC2.Still on 500k Japan LTD and 3500k worldwide.
Do we know this, about the 100k digital sales?Since you guys seems to be expecting growth for XC3, it's worth to point out that 500k in Japan and 2.2 mi worldwide would be a decline from XC2.
From official numbers, we know:
- It sold 2.17 mi as of Dec 20 (CESA/Nintendo)
- It sold 30k physical in Japan alone during 2021 (Media Create)
- It sold 296k physical in Japan as of Dec 21 (MC)
- It sold 100k digital in Japan as of Dec 17 (so, 38.5% digital share then)
And there's multiple reasons to expect that digital share to have increased since then (vouchers, eShop rankings, rarely reprinted, comparisons with games we got number, etc).
It is currently estimated to be around 600k and 2.5mi right now.
For Xenoblade 2 in particular, most data and speculation is condensed in the discussion on this page.Do we know this, about the 100k digital sales?
Oh wait, sorry, you mean December of 2017
...where can I find the Nintendo reports for 2017? I'm having trouble finding it on the IR website
Interesting. What is everybody's expectation of the game and what will be considered great score for it? I'm thinking an 85ish MC score would be considered great already in this particular case.Only great reviews are needed now for a safe 3+ million.
If it can match DE I'll be okay with it, but I'm hoping it can go over 90.Interesting. What is everybody's expectation of the game and what will be considered great score for it? I'm thinking an 85ish MC score would be considered great already in this particular case.
Past MC scores in the franchise:
the original: 92
3D: 86
X: 84
2: 83
DE: 89
XC2 will be at 3 to 3.25 million. 3 will sell better than 2 so 4million+.
That's before both Smash and XC3 boosts. It sold 250k in 2020 and all of the data we have from Japan pretty much confirms that it managed to go up in 2021 and maybe not just a little, so when we get the next CESA White Paper late August the new figure should be around 2,5m as of December 2021. Japan seems to be going even higher in 2022 than in 2021 so far thanks to XC3 hype, by the end of this year it might already be closer to 3m and won't stop selling for a few years still.XC2 is at 2.17mil isn't it?
I can't see it selling another million, like..at all.
I think that what you projected for XC2 will actually be XC3 possible goal
Same as before .now that the direct happened, how are we feeling?
my biggest take away is that there is potential for long-tail sales again thanks to the DLC
How can people say this in a post genshin worldSame as before .
I like Xenoblade but the artstyle and anime tropes will keep it in the 3 million range at best.
genshin relies on whales while Xenoblade doesn'tHow can people say this in a post genshin world
genshin relies on whales while Xenoblade doesn't
You didn't hurt anyone with the warning so no worries.Just a heads up for everyone who's looking forward to playing the game: I just got word that apparently review copies are out and so are leaks. Someone on my Xeno-discord just shared a leaked song and confirmed that it's from a leak, not an official news source. So be extra careful starting now if you don't want to be spoiled. This is going to be a long month now >_>
Update: Apparently it was a 'joke' only. Several people replied with 'this song slaps' and such, so I assumed it was real. So at least that discord is no valid source for review copies being out in the wild. Apologies for being too cautios. Edit: It's a discord where most of the bigger Xeno-youtubers are on, so that made it more likely to be real, just for giving some background.
Edi #2: And I just want to add that I hope nobody holds a grudge against me now, but when it comes to XB3, I'd rather protect people (myself included) from leaks a little too much than a little too, uhm, little. Thanks.
No worries. Appreciate the consideration.Just a heads up for everyone who's looking forward to playing the game: I just got word that apparently review copies are out and so are leaks. Someone on my Xeno-discord just shared a leaked song and confirmed that it's from a leak, not an official news source. So be extra careful starting now if you don't want to be spoiled. This is going to be a long month now >_>
Update: Apparently it was a 'joke' only. Several people replied with 'this song slaps' and such, so I assumed it was real. So at least that discord is no valid source for review copies being out in the wild. Apologies for being too cautios. Edit: It's a discord where most of the bigger Xeno-youtubers are on, so that made it more likely to be real, just for giving some background.
Edi #2: And I just want to add that I hope nobody holds a grudge against me now, but when it comes to XB3, I'd rather protect people (myself included) from leaks a little too much than a little too, uhm, little. Thanks.