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UPDATED: How much will Xenoblade Chronicles 3 sell? POST-REVEAL POLL

Now that XC3 has been officially revealed, how much do you think it will sell? (Worldwide LTD)


  • Total voters
    164
  • Poll closed .

Jimmy Joe

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I'm not feeling the confidence that this game is going to outsell Three Houses. That game's sitting pretty at 3.4m LTD as of December 2020, and has probably kept selling at a decent clip since then; surely it ended up cresting over 3.5m

I'm not saying XC3 can't hit that number, but XC2 hit 2.17m in December 2020 after a full three years on the market, and its legs just weren't as pronounced. We're talking an easy 50% increase over its direct predecessor

Again: not saying it can't do it. It certainly can. But it's difficult to be confident
 

RennanNT

Member
I estimated 3.5~4 mi (after several years) expecting that there would be another expansion pass like XC2 and that it will have better reception on launch (more time to polish, add QoL and improve tutorials/UI) and improved marketing/graphics. If some of those expectations didn't pan out, I would drop it to 3~3.5 mi or even sub 2.5~3 mi.

The direct made me more confident on that estimation, since the expansion pass is confirmed, the marketing/graphics IMO too and what I saw bodes well for better reception.
 

Jimmy Joe

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Also I apologize sincerely if this is overly pedantic, but "LTD" doesn't mean life-to-death. The "TD" means "to date," as in "lifetime to date," or maybe "launch to date"

To refer to total lifetime sales of a product, I believe "lifetime" is the less ambiguous term
 

Deluxury

Member
Near 1m in Japan is possible, but certainly not easy. They seem to be addressing the many issues in previous games, but at the end of the day, it's an action RPG with systemsssssssss, so it will have difficulty expanding its demographic for easy sales.
 

MegaXZero

Member
Staying with my prediction of: about 3mil, maybe a little less.

I don't see it catching 3H, that will end at 4 million most likely. I'd like to be surprised though
 

Aostia82

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I live everything I have seen
But..I don't see anything that could drastically change its sales potential compared to Xenoblade 2

Having the dlc as a season pass and not sold separately as Torna could make it's tail longer

Let's say 3 millions LT
 

Oregano

Asano stan
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I live everything I have seen
But..I don't see anything that could drastically change its sales potential compared to Xenoblade 2

Having the dlc as a season pass and not sold separately as Torna could make it's tail longer

Let's say 3 millions LT

Torna was also sold as part of a season pass. The separate release came later.
 

PillFencer

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That game's sitting pretty at 3.4m LTD as of December 2020, and has probably kept selling at a decent clip since then; surely it ended up cresting over 3.5m
Surely much more


Xenoblade Chronicles 2

December 2017 - 1,06m
March 2018 - 1,31m (+250k)
June 2018 - 1,42m (+110k)
September 2018 - 1,53m (+110k)
December 2018 - 1,65m (+120k)
March 2019 - 1,73m (+80k)
/
/
December 2019 - 1,92m (+190k in 9 months)
/
June 2020 - 2,05m (+130k in 6 months)
/
December 2020 - 2,17m (+120k in 6 months)


Fire Emblem: Three Houses

September 2019 - 2,29m
December 2019 - 2,58m (+290k)
March 2020 - 2,87m (+290k)
June 2020 - 3,02m (+150k)
/
December 2020 - 3,40m (+380k in 6 months)


Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition

June 2020 - 1,32m
September 2020 - 1,40m (+80k)
December 2020 - 1,48m (+80k)
March 2021 - 1,52m (+40k)
 

BTB123

Can't wait for TotK
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I think FETH could have sold up to 500k in 2021 with it selling over 800k in 2020.

Edit: I predict Xenoblade Chronicles 3 to end up over 3M.
 
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Malden

Member
Going to stick with my earlier prediction of 3.5-4 million now that I've seen the direct. I am personally more hyped now for it. To satisfy my curiosity I checked shulk amiibo prices ...and wanted to cry a little.

I'm tempted to say it won't pass 3H especially since I think 3 Hopes will drum up at least some interest but we shall see.
 

PillFencer

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I think FETH could have sold up to 500k in 2021 with it selling over 800k in 2020.
That's indeed a reasonable decrease imo considering an expected natural decline + both COVID and Smash boosts fading a little, but countered with the first 30% eShop discounts. At retail in Japan Three Houses was down 47% from 2020 to 2021 and it's to be expected that the drop is smaller both digitally and in the West, so that fits quite well too.

Then 2022 could be quite stable with hype for Three Hopes and possibly FE17.
 

Uniomni

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Staying with my prediction of: about 3mil, maybe a little less.

I don't see it catching 3H, that will end at 4 million most likely. I'd like to be surprised though
Where I'm at with it. I see alot of excitement for it online but I cautiously regard that as a vocal minority.

I hope it explodes though, if only to give MonolithSoft the opportunity for another ip with the goodwill earned here.

I want medieval towns/castles and Hidari on character designs dammit!
 

ILikeFeet

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there was nothing in the direct I felt was very enticing for new players that didn't already have some amount of interest in the series. especially when getting into gameplay mechanics. mechanics on mechanics on mechanics
 

wolftendo

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I wonder if this will outsell Persona 5 worlwide lifetime sales... Probably not if we combine OG P5 with Royal, but it might have a shot at surpassing the original release.
 

PillFencer

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The Direct didn't allow us to really see but it was confirmed to be open world by NoA when the game was announced
I thought there was a chance this could be a mistranslation or something tbh, since NoA seems to be the only division that said this afaik. Hope it's true given how they absolutely nailed the open world in X and BotW
 

sanstea

Member
Only great reviews are needed now for a safe 3+ million.

Btw do we now know if Xenoblade 3 is an open world like X or it's still zones like 1 and 2?

It seems to be open-world in the sense that the whole world is continious and seamless but not in the sense like BotW where you can go anywhere you want from the start of the game. It's still a very plot-driven game so areas will be blocked off and openend up as you progress through the story.
 

Uniomni

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there was nothing in the direct I felt was very enticing for new players that didn't already have some amount of interest in the series. especially when getting into gameplay mechanics. mechanics on mechanics on mechanics
Yeah, that's legitimately my biggest criticism of the series.

If it had a Chrono Cross type battle system it'd be an easy recommendation.

The convoluted mechanics is the biggest hurdle to success and it irks me that they keep adding to it.

It's everything I wouldn't expect from a Nintendo ip. Still gonna get this day one, but prepared to hit a wall and walk away at some point.
 

Baobab

Member
I live everything I have seen
But..I don't see anything that could drastically change its sales potential compared to Xenoblade 2

Having the dlc as a season pass and not sold separately as Torna could make it's tail longer

Let's say 3 millions LT
I agree fully with you on the fact that it looks like Xenoblade, nothing more suggest any changes that could be the trigger for a bigger audience to make the jump.
The fans of the series will love it and indeed it looks like a really solid JRPG , and it will build up a little additional fanbase in comparsion to older entries.
I predict it will do well for a JRPG, It´s limit is going to be around 2.5 Million units . I would predict 2.2 Million.

I can seen a biger jump if there is an updated version of the game for the next switch, Xenoblades game relly look fanastic but are to some extend limited by the present Hardware.
EDIT: i can´t change my vote in the poll...where i was more optimistic for the game.
 
Still on 500k Japan LTD and 3500k worldwide.

But I wonder if Japan reacted positively or negatively over the past direct, since comments from the last direct there are locked.
 

RennanNT

Member
I would predict 2.2 Million.
Still on 500k Japan LTD and 3500k worldwide.
Since you guys seems to be expecting growth for XC3, it's worth to point out that 500k in Japan and 2.2 mi worldwide would be a decline from XC2.

From official numbers, we know:
- It sold 2.17 mi as of Dec 20 (CESA/Nintendo)
- It sold 30k physical in Japan alone during 2021 (Media Create)
- It sold 296k physical in Japan as of Dec 21 (MC)
- It sold 100k digital in Japan as of Dec 17 (so, 38.5% digital share then)

And there's multiple reasons to expect that digital share to have increased since then (vouchers, eShop rankings, rarely reprinted, comparisons with games we got number, etc).

It is currently estimated to be around 600k and 2.5mi right now.
 

Jimmy Joe

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Since you guys seems to be expecting growth for XC3, it's worth to point out that 500k in Japan and 2.2 mi worldwide would be a decline from XC2.

From official numbers, we know:
- It sold 2.17 mi as of Dec 20 (CESA/Nintendo)
- It sold 30k physical in Japan alone during 2021 (Media Create)
- It sold 296k physical in Japan as of Dec 21 (MC)
- It sold 100k digital in Japan as of Dec 17 (so, 38.5% digital share then)

And there's multiple reasons to expect that digital share to have increased since then (vouchers, eShop rankings, rarely reprinted, comparisons with games we got number, etc).

It is currently estimated to be around 600k and 2.5mi right now.
Do we know this, about the 100k digital sales?

Oh wait, sorry, you mean December of 2017

Never mind me!
 
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RennanNT

Member
Do we know this, about the 100k digital sales?

Oh wait, sorry, you mean December of 2017

...where can I find the Nintendo reports for 2017? I'm having trouble finding it on the IR website
For Xenoblade 2 in particular, most data and speculation is condensed in the discussion on this page.

For Nintendo reports, I generally find it quickly googling for "Nintendo financial December 31 2017" or similar like "report" or adding the game I'm looking for. Putting the full date the quarter ends helps a lot.
 

Ninferno

Member
Only great reviews are needed now for a safe 3+ million.
Interesting. What is everybody's expectation of the game and what will be considered great score for it? I'm thinking an 85ish MC score would be considered great already in this particular case.

Past MC scores in the franchise:
the original: 92
3D: 86
X: 84
2: 83
DE: 89
 
Interesting. What is everybody's expectation of the game and what will be considered great score for it? I'm thinking an 85ish MC score would be considered great already in this particular case.

Past MC scores in the franchise:
the original: 92
3D: 86
X: 84
2: 83
DE: 89
If it can match DE I'll be okay with it, but I'm hoping it can go over 90.
 
Japan first week: 200k plus
1m first month WW
Life time I have faith it will reach 5m more or less WW

Rather bold predictions, but for some reason, I'm strangly optimistic about the game's potential sales this time around.
 

Lord Azrael

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I will say. The more we see of this game the sexier it looks. Might have to amend my original prediction up a bit
 

PillFencer

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XC2 is at 2.17mil isn't it?
I can't see it selling another million, like..at all.
I think that what you projected for XC2 will actually be XC3 possible goal
That's before both Smash and XC3 boosts. It sold 250k in 2020 and all of the data we have from Japan pretty much confirms that it managed to go up in 2021 and maybe not just a little, so when we get the next CESA White Paper late August the new figure should be around 2,5m as of December 2021. Japan seems to be going even higher in 2022 than in 2021 so far thanks to XC3 hype, by the end of this year it might already be closer to 3m and won't stop selling for a few years still.
 
Less than one month before Xenoblade Chonicles 3 release :

Image-XENO2.png

Image-XENO3.png

Image-XENO4.png

*Xenoblade 2 in Spain is first 2 weeks

Data from Famitsu/Vandal/GFK
 
now that the direct happened, how are we feeling?

my biggest take away is that there is potential for long-tail sales again thanks to the DLC
Same as before .

I like Xenoblade but the artstyle and anime tropes will keep it in the 3 million range at best. The combat system for 3 looks insane and fun but, if anything, this will just deter newcomers

I think if Xenoblade were going to explode as a franchise it would need a fresh start in so far as the world and artstyle. Xenoblade 3 looks very similar to Xenoblade 2 in scope and visuals. I will applaud Monolith though- the characters in 3 thus far do appear way less annoying than Rex, even if the plot seems a bit messy and convoluted based on the direct
 
OP
OP
Tokuiten

Tokuiten

Infected with 'Xenoblade'. 御免なさい🙇‍♀️
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Just a heads up for everyone who's looking forward to playing the game: I just got word that apparently review copies are out and so are leaks. Someone on my Xeno-discord just shared a leaked song and confirmed that it's from a leak, not an official news source. So be extra careful starting now if you don't want to be spoiled. This is going to be a long month now >_>

Update: Apparently it was a 'joke' only. Several people replied with 'this song slaps' and such, so I assumed it was real. So at least that discord is no valid source for review copies being out in the wild. Apologies for being too cautios. 🙇‍♂️ Edit: It's a discord where most of the bigger Xeno-youtubers are on, so that made it more likely to be real, just for giving some background.

Edi #2: And I just want to add that I hope nobody holds a grudge against me now, but when it comes to XB3, I'd rather protect people (myself included) from leaks a little too much than a little too, uhm, little. Thanks.
 
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Aleh

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Anime in general is very popular. Like it’s the opposite of a downside, that shit sells lol
 
OP
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Tokuiten

Tokuiten

Infected with 'Xenoblade'. 御免なさい🙇‍♀️
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Regarding 'leak', see updated post pls.
 

Uniomni

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Just a heads up for everyone who's looking forward to playing the game: I just got word that apparently review copies are out and so are leaks. Someone on my Xeno-discord just shared a leaked song and confirmed that it's from a leak, not an official news source. So be extra careful starting now if you don't want to be spoiled. This is going to be a long month now >_>

Update: Apparently it was a 'joke' only. Several people replied with 'this song slaps' and such, so I assumed it was real. So at least that discord is no valid source for review copies being out in the wild. Apologies for being too cautios. 🙇‍♂️ Edit: It's a discord where most of the bigger Xeno-youtubers are on, so that made it more likely to be real, just for giving some background.

Edi #2: And I just want to add that I hope nobody holds a grudge against me now, but when it comes to XB3, I'd rather protect people (myself included) from leaks a little too much than a little too, uhm, little. Thanks.
You didn't hurt anyone with the warning so no worries.

No grudges for something so innocent
 

Malden

Member
Just a heads up for everyone who's looking forward to playing the game: I just got word that apparently review copies are out and so are leaks. Someone on my Xeno-discord just shared a leaked song and confirmed that it's from a leak, not an official news source. So be extra careful starting now if you don't want to be spoiled. This is going to be a long month now >_>

Update: Apparently it was a 'joke' only. Several people replied with 'this song slaps' and such, so I assumed it was real. So at least that discord is no valid source for review copies being out in the wild. Apologies for being too cautios. 🙇‍♂️ Edit: It's a discord where most of the bigger Xeno-youtubers are on, so that made it more likely to be real, just for giving some background.

Edi #2: And I just want to add that I hope nobody holds a grudge against me now, but when it comes to XB3, I'd rather protect people (myself included) from leaks a little too much than a little too, uhm, little. Thanks.
No worries. Appreciate the consideration.
 
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