UK February 2023: PS5 +316% YOY, Hogwarts Legacy launch week doubles Elden Ring launch

[Welfare]

PS5 sales surge over 300% in the UK during February | UK Monthly Charts

Xbox Series S and X sales also increased month-on-month

www.gamesindustry.biz

2.8 million console and PC games were sold across the UK during February, up 11% over the year before.

Hogwarts Legacy was by far and away the biggest game of the month. Its launch week was 100% bigger than last February's hit video game, Elden Ring. In fact, the game is already on the brink of over-taking Elden Ring in all-time sales after just three weeks. It is currently the sixth best-selling video game from the last 12 months.

This month, the highest charting new releases outside of Hogwarts is Undisputed, the boxing game from Plaion, which debuts at No.13. Elsewhere, Atomic Heart charted at No.17, although the game was a Day One title in Game Pass, which may explain why 85% of its sales were on PS5 and PC.

The Last of Us: Part 2 is at No.7, with sales more than double the month before. Meanwhile The Last of Us Remastered is at No.14, with sales up over 50%. There is also an increase for The Last of Us Part 1 on PS5 (No.19). These jumps are from a relatively low base, so the overall sales figures are not particularly huge, but it shows that the games have benefitted from the HBO series based on the IP, which started in January.

Hardware
143,000 consoles sold. Console sales up 65% YOY, +14% from January

PS5 +316% (4.16x) YOY, +27% from January
XBS +15% YOY, +21% from January
NSW -29% YOY, -15% from January

Accessories
511,680 sold, 14.4% down YOY, -17% from January

The chart is dominated by controllers, with the PS5 DualSense controlling the Top Three positions. The White variety is at No.1, the Grey Camo version is at No.2, and the Midnight Black version is at No.3. The Carbon Black Xbox controller is at No.4.

The final week of the month also saw the DualSense Edge controller arrive at retailers (after a four-week period via the PlayStation Store). It is the most expensive controller of all time with an average selling price of £208, GfK says.

In terms of premium controllers (controllers that are £80 or more), it is the fourth biggest launch for these products, behind three Microsoft ones: The Elite Wireless Series 2 (Black), the Elite Wireless (Black) and the Elite Wireless Series 2: Halo Infinite edition.

 

[Welfare]

These are my estimates for hardware

January
PS5: ~58K
NSW: ~38K
XBS: ~28K

February
PS5: ~74K
XBS: ~35K
NSW: ~32K

YTD
PS5: ~132K
NSW: ~70K
XBS: ~63K

PS5 YTD should be around +25% from YTD 2021.

 

[Megiddo]

Edited, I misread 2021 as 2022.

 

[awng782]

These are my estimates for hardware

January
PS5: ~58K
NSW: ~38K
XBS: ~28K

February
PS5: ~74K
XBS: ~35K
NSW: ~32K

YTD
PS5: ~132K
NSW: ~70K
XBS: ~63K

PS5 YTD should be around +25% from YTD 2021.

Was Feb 2023 the PS5's biggest non-holiday month?

 

[Welfare]

Was Feb 2023 the PS5's biggest non-holiday month?

Multiple months in 2021 were +75K.

Unless sales pick up in March, I don't think PS5 can touch months like March or September 2021 which were over 100K each.

 

[Kmds]

These are my estimates for hardware

January
PS5: ~58K
NSW: ~38K
XBS: ~28K

February
PS5: ~74K
XBS: ~35K
NSW: ~32K

YTD
PS5: ~132K
NSW: ~70K
XBS: ~63K

PS5 YTD should be around +25% from YTD 2021.

If this is correct, on an optimistic perspective I would assume that around 750k PS5's have been sold in Europe. That was done using the PS4's 17% UK ratio of LTD European sales which isn't the best metric to use. Either way that would mean at most by end of March the sell-through in Europe should be 1-1.1 Million which is frankly okay.

At this point, unless the US completely goes crazy with PS5 sales or March explodes (which is unlikely as it lacks a huge game like Hogwarts), I can't see them shipping 6.2 million units without channel stuffing. Funnily enough I think it's very possible Japan sells more PS5s than Europe through end of March.

 

[Baki]

These are my estimates for hardware

January
PS5: ~58K
NSW: ~38K
XBS: ~28K

February
PS5: ~74K
XBS: ~35K
NSW: ~32K

YTD
PS5: ~132K
NSW: ~70K
XBS: ~63K

PS5 YTD should be around +25% from YTD 2021.

Can you show us how you estimated these sell though numbers?

 

[Welfare]

Can you show us how you estimated these sell though numbers?

Using the figures we've been estimating since 2020 and going off the YOY.

Xevross has also been doing this but our numbers differ slightly.

 

[Himura Kenshin]

From GI.biz,

Year-to-date, PS5 hardware is up 180% over the first two months of 2022.

Year-to-date, the (Xbox Series S and X) platform's sales are down slightly by 5.3%.

No year-to-date was given for Switch.

 

[Xevross]

Holy shit at the Hogwarts Legacy stats. Absolutely unreal.

These are my estimates for hardware

January
PS5: ~58K
NSW: ~38K
XBS: ~28K

February
PS5: ~74K
XBS: ~35K
NSW: ~32K

YTD
PS5: ~132K
NSW: ~70K
XBS: ~63K

PS5 YTD should be around +25% from YTD 2021.

Seems about right to me. PS5 off to a very strong start, last year was ~75k for Q1 total so on track to roughly triple that this year.

 

[KillerMan]

If this is correct, on an optimistic perspective I would assume that around 750k PS5's have been sold in Europe. That was done using the PS4's 17% UK ratio of LTD European sales which isn't the best metric to use. Either way that would mean at most by end of March the sell-through in Europe should be 1-1.1 Million which is frankly okay.

At this point, unless the US completely goes crazy with PS5 sales or March explodes (which is unlikely as it lacks a huge game like Hogwarts), I can't see them shipping 6.2 million units without channel stuffing. Funnily enough I think it's very possible Japan sells more PS5s than Europe through end of March.

Spanish data already shows us that using PS4 gen share percentages is rather useless this gen (PS5 shipments have been completely abysmal in Spain until this year). Until at least this year UK has gotten far larger share of total European PS shipments than during last gen.

 

[Xevross]

I've matched up all the numbers we have, adjusted last year and estimated the numbers so far this year. Here's my estimates:

January
PS5: ~60K
XBS: ~32K
NSW: ~33K

February
PS5: ~76K
XBS: ~39K
NSW: ~28K

YTD
PS5: ~136K
XBS: ~71K
NSW: ~61K

 

[kazuyamishima]

It seems that they don’t track Playstation direct in the UK that’s why there is no data for PSVR2 and any PS5’s sold through there.

Don’t know if the NPD tracks Ps direct in the US.

 

[Welfare]

It seems that they don’t track Playstation direct in the UK that’s why there is no data for PSVR2 and any PS5’s sold through there.

Don’t know if the NPD tracks Ps direct in the US.

NPD estimates to 100% of the market. They probably get PS Direct.

GFK reports raw data, that then gets up weighted afterwards.

 

[salesguy]

yeah i think sony going to hit the forecast

 

[Baki]

yeah i think sony going to hit the forecast

That should never have been in doubt. Public companies don't raise forecasts in the final quarter unless they're 99% sure they're going to hit the goal.

 

[Welfare]

That should never have been in doubt. Public companies don't raise forecasts in the final quarter unless they're 99% sure they're going to hit the goal.

yeah i think sony going to hit the forecast

Nothing about UK sales indicate Sony is going to ship 6.2M units this quarter.

 

[Baki]

Nothing about UK sales indicate Sony is going to ship 6.2M units this quarter.

UK sales are up by 198% from the quarter they shipped 2M units. Do you think they're not going to hit their goal?

 

[Xevross]

UK sales are up by 198% from the quarter they shipped 2M units. Do you think they're not going to hit their goal?

Applying UK % changes to WW doesn't make any sense. 2021 -> 2022 UK was down ~68% in Q1 but WW was down only 37%. If you compare 2023 to 2021, PS5 will probably only just match its UK Q1 total (which was ~230k) which would point to 3.3M worldwide again. Not to mention sell through and shipments don't line up that closely either.

That being said, if you take total known sales (UK+Spain+Japan) then it paints a pretty clear general picture, and I agree with your argument here:

That should never have been in doubt. Public companies don't raise forecasts in the final quarter unless they're 99% sure they're going to hit the goal.

PS5 will hit 6.2M or close enough to it for sure.

 

[viciman1]

Shipping 6.2M units =/= selling 6.2M units.

Its also pretty clear that UK and the US were the focus the first two years of the gen, the fact that the rest of the world now has actual good shipment numbers (as noted in the Japan and Spain sales threads for example) while the US and the UK continue to sell at a good rate tells me is gonna be pretty close. Also, this type of more global shipments leads to more stock in channel, just by design.

I don't know if it will reach the revised forecast ( it's a massive record breaking number after all) but the original target i think can happen without too much problem.

 

[Bruno MB]

Hogwarts Legacy has sold close to 900.000 units in its first month, it is a completely absurd amount, this means that the rest of February's releases have been completely overshadowed.

Atomic Heart charted at No.17, Octopath Traveler 2 at No.58, Theatrhythm Final Bar Line No.78 and Wild Hearts is a massive flop just charting at No.139 with 2 weeks tracked.

 

[Remember_spinal]

Hogwarts Legacy has sold close to 900.000 units in its first month, it is a completely absurd amount, this means that the rest of February's releases have been completely overshadowed.

Atomic Heart charted at No.17, Octopath Traveler 2 at No.58, Theatrhythm Final Bar Line No.78 and Wild Hearts is a massive flop just charting at No.139 with 2 weeks tracked.

The same eclipse in sales Elden Ring created this time last year

 

[Baki]

Applying UK % changes to WW doesn't make any sense. 2021 -> 2022 UK was down ~68% in Q1 but WW was down only 37%. If you compare 2023 to 2021, PS5 will probably only just match its UK Q1 total (which was ~230k) which would point to 3.3M worldwide again. Not to mention sell through and shipments don't line up that closely either.

That being said, if you take total known sales (UK+Spain+Japan) then it paints a pretty clear general picture, and I agree with your argument here:

PS5 will hit 6.2M or close enough to it for sure.

I agree. It's nonsensical to look at UK sales and then try to apply that to WW. Too many variables. The strongest argument that PS5 will hit it's quarterly goal is that it was revised upwards when there was only 2 months remaining in the FY.

 

[Remember_spinal]

I don’t even see why its that important, at this point if they miss their projects it will be by a small amount.

 

[kazuyamishima]

I agree. It's nonsensical to look at UK sales and then try to apply that to WW. Too many variables. The strongest argument that PS5 will hit it's quarterly goal is that it was revised upwards when there was only 2 months remaining in the FY.

Europe results will give a better picture, but it seems that Italy, Germany, and France are UP by a lot too compared to 2022 and even 2021. I suppose the same will be for ROTW and The Americas.

 

[Baki]

The same eclipse in sales Elden Ring created this time last year

It was a mistake to release so many promising games (wild hearts, atomic hearts, wo long, yakuza) during the same month as Hogwarts.

 

[Remember_spinal]

It was a mistake to release so many promising games (wild hearts, atomic hearts, wo long, yakuza) during the same month as Hogwarts.

Its kind of impossible to know how certain games are going to perform well ahead of the time they schedule release dates, especially when things get delayed and pushed around like hogwarts did late last year.

If I looked at some of those games compared to hogwarts I wouldn’t think there was anyway the audience would have much of an overlap, that is unless the game just did unprecedented numbers. Some games are so big they suck all the air out of room, even for titles not in their genre.

 

[Baki]

Its kind of impossible to know how certain games are going to perform well ahead of the time they schedule release dates, especially when things get delayed and pushed around like hogwarts did late last year.

If I looked at some of those games compared to hogwarts I wouldn’t think there was anyway the audience would have much of an overlap, that is unless the game just did unprecedented numbers. Some games are so big they suck all the air out of room, even for titles not in their genre.

I think a lot of these titles were delayed and they all ended up getting delayed into Q1 where you have these huge releases (RE4, Hogwarts and all these other interesting games). It’s unfortunate as I’m sure Wild Hearts would have thrived during a less busy quarter of game releases.

 

[AuroraMusisAmica]

Like, obviously there's a large cost of entry with franchises such as Harry Potter, but the sales of Legacy begs the question of how certain franchises simply have incredible sales potential under the guidance of a disciplined dev team, and why they're not being utilized.

Obviously a lot can go wrong (and has gone wrong. See Marvel.) with certain mega brands. But the success of this game calls into question of Harry's only gaming treatment of the last 15 years being Lego games and mobile spinoffs.

I suppose better off cautious than poisoning the well for the future.

We'll see how Ubisoft handles Avatar or Embracer handles LotR. But HLs stratospheric sales will no doubt affect the gaming landscape from here on out.

 

[awng782]

Wild Hearts charting at #139 is entering giga-flop territory. That's more Babylon's Fall than Forspoken.

Hogwarts Legacy has sold close to 900.000 units in its first month, it is a completely absurd amount, this means that the rest of February's releases have been completely overshadowed.

Hogwarts Legacy is pretty much assured to be the 2nd best-selling game of 2023 in the UK at minimum.

Modern Warfare II "only" sold 1.68M by the end of 2022, and I highly doubt this year's Call of Duty will sell as much. Hogwarts Legacy will only need to sell another 700K+ for the remainder of the year to beat COD, which seems like a guarantee once the PS4/XBO and NSW SKUs launch in the coming months.

 

[Xevross]

Wild Hearts charting at #139 is entering giga-flop territory. That's more Babylon's Fall than Forspoken.


Hogwarts Legacy is pretty much assured to be the 2nd best-selling game of 2023 in the UK at minimum.

Modern Warfare II "only" sold 1.68M by the end of 2022, and I highly doubt this year's Call of Duty will sell as much. Hogwarts Legacy will only need to sell another 700K+ for the remainder of the year to beat COD, which seems like a guarantee once the PS4/XBO and NSW SKUs launch in the coming months.

Yeah I think unless legs are terrible it should be outselling COD and being #2 this year.

And yeah Wild Hearts is a gargantuan flop. Launching a new IP with little advertising at £70 is unbelievably dumb. Didn't help that MH Rise just came out on PS and XB (and game pass) as well.

 

[enpleinjour]

Hogwarts is insane. I never felt the hype was on the level of C2077 or Elden Ring in dedicated circles, and yet its going to completely blow both out of the water in the UK.

Biggest SP IP bar Rockstar.

Also TLOU P2 at No.7 and 3 TLOU titles in the Top 20. TLOU Factions will be big if it launches this year.

 

[Xevross]

Hogwarts is insane. I never felt the hype was on the level of C2077 or Elden Ring in dedicated circles, and yet its going to completely blow both out of the water in the UK.

Biggest SP IP bar Rockstar.

Also TLOU P2 at No.7 and 3 TLOU titles in the Top 20. TLOU Factions will be big if it launches this year.

Harry Potter probably is the biggest franchise in the UK though, I don't think other countries will be quite this big. It certainly felt to me like the hype was as big as any game I could remember, a lot of that from Harry Potter fans who don't buy many games, and certainly not at launch week. The performance is remarkable and shows how much pent up demand there was for a proper quality HP game.

Yeah they've really gotta get Factions out this year to really capitalize on this, I have no idea what's taking them so long with it but I hope its because they're bucking the trend and actually releasing a feature complete high quality multiplayer game. My expectation is a full reveal at Sony's pre-e3 showcase and either a shadowdrop or a short buildup to the release.

Like, obviously there's a large cost of entry with franchises such as Harry Potter, but the sales of Legacy begs the question of how certain franchises simply have incredible sales potential under the guidance of a disciplined dev team, and why they're not being utilized.

Obviously a lot can go wrong (and has gone wrong. See Marvel.) with certain mega brands. But the success of this game calls into question of Harry's only gaming treatment of the last 15 years being Lego games and mobile spinoffs.

I suppose better off cautious than poisoning the well for the future.

We'll see how Ubisoft handles Avatar or Embracer handles LotR. But HLs stratospheric sales will no doubt affect the gaming landscape from here on out.

I think you're right that this will mark an important moment, big studios will now be fully confident in releasing SP only games for big IPs. Spider-Man and Avengers were a big example in the last few years but this cements it. Licensed games do by far the best as quality SP experiences. Avengers was such a massive fuck-up and Suicide Squad looks like another major incoming fuck-up.

Jedi Survivor is going to be massive as well.

 

[Turenne]

Three TLOU games in the top 20 says that Sony is on to something with its cross-media push. Will be interesting to see how Twisted Metal does on both PS5 and Peacock.

If Factions is day one on Steam it will be the next big MP hit imo.

 

[Baki]

Hogwarts is insane. I never felt the hype was on the level of C2077 or Elden Ring in dedicated circles, and yet its going to completely blow both out of the water in the UK.

Biggest SP IP bar Rockstar.

Also TLOU P2 at No.7 and 3 TLOU titles in the Top 20. TLOU Factions will be big if it launches this year.

HP is a UK IP. Makes sense that it's uber popular in the UK.

 

[awng782]

Harry Potter selling 2X faster than Elden Ring is definitely a UK-only thing since they both sold 12M worldwide in ~2 weeks.

 

[Himura Kenshin]

Harry Potter selling 2X faster than Elden Ring is definitely a UK-only thing since they both sold 12M worldwide in ~2 weeks.

Harry Potter sold 12M worldwide in two weeks on current gen systems only. It will release on last gen systems in a matter of time (Switch among them) and sales will spike again.

 

[SoonyXboneUhh]

Harry Potter selling 2X faster than Elden Ring is definitely a UK-only thing since they both sold 12M worldwide in ~2 weeks.

Harry Potter is from the UK.
Elden Ring should be a lot stronger in Asia.

That should be the regional difference mainly. Howarts bigger in the West, Elden Ring bigger in the East and overall similar (launch)
Legs I expect Hogwarts to be bigger worldwide, too.

 

[The Hunter]

If Factions is day one on Steam it will be the next big MP hit imo.

I think it will be day one on PC

 

[master94ga]

I think it will be day one on PC

Yeah, this days a multiplayer games need to release D1 on PC to have a chance to succeed

 

[Malden]

Speaking of Hogwarts, XB1 and PS4 delayed to 5/5. Doesn't mention Switch yet though.

Hogwarts Legacy Xbox One Version Delayed, Again

Last-gen users are in for a wait

www.purexbox.com

 

[master94ga]

Games in bundle that are digital codes are counted as Digital or Phisycal?

 

[Welfare]

Games in bundle that are digital codes are counted as Digital or Phisycal?

Console bundles are always reported with physical. Digital is only sales that come directly from the online store.

 

[Turenne]

Elden Ring should be a lot stronger in Asia.

Harry Potter is a massive IP in Asia.

 

[NediarPT88]

Elden Ring should be a lot stronger in Asia.

Harry Potter is a massive IP in Asia.

Yeah when you look at Steam, 23% of Elden Ring reviews are in chinese while it's only 8% in Hogwarts case.

Considering how massive Hogwarts sales were in Europe, to have sold similar numbers to Elden Ring overall in 2 weeks means that they performed worse somewhere else and Asia seems like one of those places.

 

[Astandahl]

Yeah when you look at Steam, 23% of Elden Ring reviews are in chinese while it's only 8% in Hogwarts case.

Considering how massive Hogwarts sales were in Europe, to have sold similar numbers to Elden Ring overall in 2 weeks means that they performed worse somewhere else and Asia seems like one of those places.

HL selling less than ER in Asia could be related to the lack of current gen console supply in that region.
ER was released on PS4 and Xbox One as well.

 

[SSN]

Like, obviously there's a large cost of entry with franchises such as Harry Potter, but the sales of Legacy begs the question of how certain franchises simply have incredible sales potential under the guidance of a disciplined dev team, and why they're not being utilized.

Obviously a lot can go wrong (and has gone wrong. See Marvel.) with certain mega brands. But the success of this game calls into question of Harry's only gaming treatment of the last 15 years being Lego games and mobile spinoffs.

I suppose better off cautious than poisoning the well for the future.

We'll see how Ubisoft handles Avatar or Embracer handles LotR. But HLs stratospheric sales will no doubt affect the gaming landscape from here on out.

Speaking of brands, I'm praying that Dune 2 is a big hit this year (like Top Gun Maverick was last year) and becomes a huge franchise, so that we can finally get a big budget Dune game. I've been fantasizing about a AAA Dune game for years now!

 

[Turkey]

Speaking of brands, I'm praying that Dune 2 is a big hit this year (like Top Gun Maverick was last year) and becomes a huge franchise, so that we can finally get a big budget Dune game. I've been fantasizing about a AAA Dune game for years now!

As much as I would like this to happen, you're better off hoping for something like 600M ww with some luck.