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UK Feb 2024: #1 PS5 (-28%) , #2 NSW (-??%), #3 XBS (-??%)

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Software:
  • 2.77M games sold, -5.5% YoY
  • Suicide Squad, -20% 4w to Gotham Knights/Guardians
  • Skull and Bones, -75% 2w to Sea of Thieves
  • HD2, 57% PS : 43% PC
    • -28% SM2 3 week
      • SM2 3 week PHY = 160K, launch week digital = 64%
      • Assuming 60% digital across 3W, SM2 = 400K
    • HD2 = 288K
      • 1w = 50K
      • 2w = 108K
      • 3w = 130K
Hardware:
  • PS5 = ~51K

UK GSD February 2024 Top 10 (Digital and Physical)​


PositionTitle
1 Helldivers 2 (Sony)
2 EA Sports FC 24 (EA)
3 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (Activision Blizzard)
4Suicide Squad: Kill The Justice League (Warner Bros)
5 Grand Theft Auto 5 (Rockstar)
6Hogwarts Legacy (Warner Bros)
7Red Dead Redemption 2 (Rockstar)
8Skull and Bones (Ubisoft)
9The Last of Us Part 2: Remastered (Sony)
10Persona 3 Reload (Sega)
 
I have something like this:

Feb 2023: 143k
PS5: 75k
Xbox: 36k
Switch: 32k

Feb 2024: 96k
PS5: 54k
Switch: >21k
Xbox: <21k
 
3rd week comparison:
SM2 ~50k
HD2 ~ 130k
At that rate HD2 will overtake SM2 launch aligned soon.

Also PS5 market share of 56% against Xbox+Switch is impressive.
There were PS5 deals, but iirc Xbox had the same discounts.
 
Helldivers 2 is proving to be an absolute phenomenon sales-wise. Curious to see where it will end. Also, the PS5/PC split being in favour of PS5 is better than I expected for PS5. Pretty great performance all around.
 
3rd week comparison:
SM2 ~50k
HD2 ~ 130k
At that rate HD2 will overtake SM2 launch aligned soon.

Also PS5 market share of 56% against Xbox+Switch is impressive.
There were PS5 deals, but iirc Xbox had the same discounts.

Yup, especially since interest is pretty much steady a month after launch, I feel like it'll have very strong legs. Sales probably won't continue to grow like the first 3 weeks, but it'll most likely have a less steep decline.

I really hope Arrowhead deal included royalties per copy sold + a percentage of MTX
 
HD2 democracy. Sold more on PS5 in the end by a decent amount.
And PS5 market share is great
 
Spider-Man 2 sold ~390k in 2 weeks. Probably ~450k in 3.

Helldivers 2 ~320k in 3 weeks.

USA looks like followed same patern

W1: 420K
W2: 900k
W3 1.1m

~2.4m

And with 4 weeks in Circana February report Helldivers 2 is looking to sell around ~3.5m in USA first month.
 
Helldivers 2 sales are absolutely phenomenal. Especially considering it's latest week is the highest which means sales from here will be far beyond the other titles it's being compared against e.g. Spidey 2.
 
HD2 democracy. Sold more on PS5 in the end by a decent amount.
And PS5 market share is great

Whats impressive about the PS5 split is that PS5 currently has half or so the installbase of Steam. Really high attach ratio on PS.
 
Whats impressive about the PS5 split is that PS5 currently has half or so the installbase of Steam. Really high attach ratio on PS.

I think Steam number are more impressive. In UK PC ports get 12-14% share for majority of games. Even Diablo 4 which is PC centric game sold like 50% on PC.

So for Helldivers 2 to get 43% share on Steam in UK mean its doing great there.

Worldwide is likely 50-50 or Steam with bit higher share.
 
Helldrivers honestly makes me think about a PS5 purchase so it’s definitely having a big impact. Sony having games like this really puts Xbox on the back foot.
 
4th week Helldivers 2 is down 30% WoW.

my estimates

Week 1: 55k
Week 2: 120k
Week 3: 145k
Week4: 100k

~420k in 4 weeks
 
Helldivers success basically will spell the end of any hopes that Sony will abandon the live service push in favour of single player games. This is what they dreamed of when they changed strategy in the first place.
 
Helldivers success basically will spell the end of any hopes that Sony will abandon the live service push in favour of single player games. This is what they dreamed of when they changed strategy in the first place.
the push on live service games is necessary, and will also benefit single player games which will remain Sony's main offering
 
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Helldivers success basically will spell the end of any hopes that Sony will abandon the live service push in favour of single player games. This is what they dreamed of when they changed strategy in the first place.

The reality is probably in the middle right now.
Sure this is a big success, but at the same time, we already know a couple GaaS games have already been cancelled. Their initial vision for their live service push has already been curtailed.
 
PC is quite weak in the UK. Being 43% on PC there makes me think that PC is ahead globally.

Maybe, maybe not.
Helldivers 2 seems to have an abnormal amount of sales on Steam(for PC titles) in the US/CAN if we look at the fact it's one of the very few games that peaks during NA evening times. Probably a ton of copies sold on PS in that region and I'm not sure the PC vs Console split is that much better in NA?
I have no real conception of how things are though.

Yeah I agree but I think they have changed their strategy again (as shown by the multiple cancellations of GaaS projects).

The cancellation of TLoU Online is probably the one which hurts the most.
Of all the GaaS projects I'm sure players and SIE themselves both agree that this was the game with the highest floor for revenue generation. The most "surefire" title if all went according to plan.

The second one where they would have the 2nd highest degree of confidence would probably be the Horizon MP game in development at Guerrila Games. Slight hiccup there though, Concord is slated to be the other 2024 GaaS game and Totoki has said that no major existing franchise title is going to release in the next FY which ends March 31st 2025.

Monster Hunter Wilds(vague 2025 window for that one) coming out before their game or around the same time would probably not be the most ideal situation there, but I guess that's just how they do things at Guerilla.
 
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