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99.999% it won't happen but if GTA 6 ends up being any sort of a bomb or seriously fails to meet expectations, I can only imagine the waves that would create throughout the industry.
The stagnation/decline in the AAA console marketplace, its implications on the health of the industry, and what can be done to reverse the trend
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99.999% it won't happen but if GTA 6 ends up being any sort of a bomb or seriously fails to meet expectations, I can only imagine the waves that would create throughout the industry.
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GTA 5 was essentially the same game that was released on Xbox 360 / PS3. GTA Online has become a phenomenon but it was essentially GTA 5. It brought a completely new consumer mass. GTA6 is the first game that will bring not only GTA folks and mass consumer market, but also those who joined GTA via its GaaS offering.
What it has to do with it not launching on PC? They haven't announced PC release and I am not sure if they will do that. RDR2 was not released PC day 1 either.
I will be honest, I am not so sure about that because of the way that the market has profoundly changed. I think that it will be a success, but will it be a match over the longevity of GTA V? Not so sure about that one and that is going to come up alot, because that is the only real comparison.
The only other thing to say to that is that for the last 3 years... Take-two's financials have been a little generous for it's output, so I question the expectations a little.
Simple, the release is in a state of flux that can change at any point given how broad the release date is. Whether Take-two wants to acknowledge that or not. That includes platforms of the release.
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The large Japanese third party publishers will continue to ignore Nintendo except for small budget titles, Dragon Quest, Sonic the Hedgehog, and Monster Hunter. The C-Suites will take matters into their own hands and fund late ports of AAA games like what happened with Nier Automata and Persona 5.
The production managers all came up in the 1990’s and have biases towards the PlayStation. They’ll keep selling the C-Suite on the western market on PlayStation while their flagship IP’s lose market relevance like Final Fantasy, Street Fighter, Tekken, and Soul Calibur. (Losing street fighter makes me sad as I played the heck out of the Street Fighter 3 series on my Dreamcast with my buddies in college who were hardcore fighter fans)
Nintendo was right to position themselves to no longer rely on them for key tentpole software to drive hardware sales momentum.
Microsoft’s C Suite never understood that the video games business is a branch of the entertainment business. They should leave the business as they keep trying to approach it like their productivity software and it’s just not.
SIE still thinks that having the large third parties in their pocket as de facto second parties for their AAA products matters like in 2004. In truth, they can’t supply enough different software for all the reasons we have been talking about in this thread. SIE can’t and won’t do the long term projects at Nintendo to reduce costs and have a diverse library of first party titles. Japan is the canary in the coal mine and PlayStation will go into decline in the west just like in Japan. The PS6 will be the last PlayStation.
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I will be honest, I think that the only reason you will likely see the large Japanese third party publishers acknowledge Nintendo complete dominance of region is if their is a global collapse of the Playstation brand. So long as America remains a part of their ambitions, Nintendo is rather easier to ignore.... they will likely assume that it's just a regional thing (when it clearly isn't).
That is the thing, over the years the one thing that they could rely upon was themselves... so they did. It is part of the reasoning that they just dropped out of the hardware rat race, there was no point keeping that up if they were not going to use all that power. The happy side effect of that was the lower prices, both for consumers and at production.
We'll see about that... I think that if SIE isn't careful and doesn't start employing some restrain on their ambitions that their might not be a PS6. The Group has been rather clear that SIE will not be saved if they fuzz it up, and the large overlap with PC means that their users are up for grabs fairly easily. The pressure has been on for a while but even with that SIE, and no one else, will be the architects of their own demise.
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You make a great point about the customers overlapping with PC. It goes deeper than that… the AAA “cinematic” games are PC games on a system that has evolved to be a modified PC. PlayStation no longer has a clear differentiator compared to the PC game library or overall experience.
Before the PS3/X360, consoles and PC’s were very clearly delineated experiences. PC games focused on more sim aspects and bolstered the sense of adventure with lore. Think Ultima or Advanced Dungeons and Dragons. PC’s also required more work on hardware upgrades and installation and drivers, etc. just like today.
Consoles were the home extension of the arcade. They were the home of arcade ports like Golden Axe or Contra and adventure games with arcade style gameplay like The Legend of Zelda or Mega Man. They were also simple to get at the game, just put the media in the slot and you’re off playing games. The hardware was also at an accessible price compared to buying a PC that was powerful enough to run stuff like Quake 2 when it was new.
The PS3 and X360 blurred that distinction with their need to install software from disc, high hardware failure rates, and emphasis on lore heavy PC-like FPS’s and western RPG’s. The PS3’s initial killer apps were supposed to be Resistance Fall of Man and Heavy Rain, both games that would have been only on PC 5 years earlier. For X360, it was Halo 3 and Gears of War, PC style FPS’s developed by PC FPS studios.
As the PS3 became a business disaster, SIE marketed more and more heavily to their most reliable customers, 13+ male “gamers” to stop the bleeding and set up for the PS4. The tastes of that demo also overlaps with the biggest demographic on Steam, at least until recently.
Fast forward to the PS5 and you have a console that is now the same cost as an entry level PC that can run most Steam games on mid to low settings, you have lots of download times, and you have software that it either very similar to what’s on Steam or is actually co-released on Steam. No differentiation except for Square exclusives.
This is exaggerated immensely but yes anyone who thinks JP being so weak for Playstation is all dandy is completely ignorant.
Japan is the canary in the coal mine for Playstation’s fate in ALL of East Asia’s which will heavily impact the brand negatively if nothing changes.
In the West though, Playstation will still be very popular so that part is very wrong. Xbox being a no-show helps them a lot too.
I appreciate the shout-out to Akira Toriyama's prophecy in Sand Land but barring some cataclysmic event Sony has no business abandoning one of the most valuable recognizable brands in history.
You don't sunset your golden goose because it becomes a loss leader.
That's fantasy this late in the game. You might not see a PSVR3, PS6 Sorta Slim or a PS6 Pro but you will see a PS7 in 10-12 years time.
Unless there is a legal thunderclap that forces Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft to tear down their walled gardens the next 7 years is going to look like the last 7 just with more COD on Switch and GTA6 and MK9 running amuck on the charts.
While i don't think PS will ever fall into Xbox level of irrelevance in East Asia or even SEA as Nintendo simply can't play on same high gfx ground as PS.
I can see them slowly relegated into the high gfx only audience niche.
My last data on Eiyuuden in indonesia sales is enough example showing that despite Eiyuuden is based on Suikoden which is heavily PS oriented IP. The sales simply has moved to Switch by 5 to 1 sales difference. It is the same case as Brigandine.
For smaller and medium tier games. Most of those sales will migrate to Switch with PS holding very small sales as the audience missmatched happen.
It will be slowly be kinda how Japanese market works there for PS in East Asia and SEA. For the rest like Middle East and South Asia. I think it will remain PS then Nintendo because nintendo has not yet go full aggressive in expanding to those region.
That is more of a symptom of the technology... is it the exact same, and from SIE that is fairly deliberate.
The PS3 was a massive con when it came to development of the Cell chip, IBM got all the money and SIE did most of the work... part of the reason to just take parts "off the shelf" was in fact a cost saving measure. PS3 had some nasty overruns and the Group was simply done having it.... so SIE called up AMD, ordered a semi-custom jaguar APU for their new system at the time. That is the PS4.
They have been running that game plan ever since. The PS5 bumps the processing to a Zen 2, RDNA2 based APU with a custom PCIe based interconnect..... but yeah, the differences between systems (PC and a PS5) from a hardware point of view doesn't exist.
Their is a problem with that, Mobile. That market might not cannibalize the Playstation's player base but it's has forced it to shrink. The other problem is that with that, potential new players don't just automatically come to a new platform. You have to market to them... and SIE doesn't. SIE never really got out of this idea of "gaming as a lifestyle", and if you land outside of that... SIE doesn't see a market to sell too. The irony is that their is a market there.
A thing to ask.... "most valuable recognizable brands in history" Recognizable to whom? Me, you or the kid around the corner that was born in an age of smartphones whom interaction with games has been the games on Apple Arcade or Fortnite, Roblox, Genshin Impact, etc. Whom's only interaction with Sony, the group, has been with it's incredibly niche flagship smartphones, also-ran maker of value smartphones, and headphones, maybe.
Given that is the consumer, it would not take much to be render the brand irrelevant. If that happens and SIE needs to a dump of cash to offset it's loses, then yeah... I can see Sony dropping the PlayStation brand cold. Sony Group is not about to attempt to save it when it's other business keep making the money and SIE doesn't. The failure of the PS3 was unacceptable, the group is not about to have another and keep on going like nothing happened.
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I don't think Xbox or Sony will stop producing console hardware entirely in the next couple of decades (barring some massive, unpredictable shift in the industry), but they will in all likelihood become more niche products overtime. They're becoming more expensive to make and are selling less.
The same kids that dump obscene amounts of time into playing, watching people stream and a talking about GTA, FIFA and 2K. Who bug their parents endlessly or even take on extra chores to get that hideous white "box" to play those games. The kind of kid growing up watching the "PS" logo at soccer games. The type of kid that watches eSports and pretty much needs a PlayStation if they want to compete in EVO.
Sony brass will sooner Old Yeller the cinematic AAA first parties hoovering up the margins than take a hatchet to a 30 year old brand known the world over. Let's be reasonable here. A Vita level disaster can make it happen but as Phil said about losing at the worst generation, with those libraries keeping people locked into their ecosystem they are guaranteed a sustainable minimum of sales and all the free money they get from their 30% cut.
This will still happen to a degree but things will still improve on Switch 2 coming from Switch. Just as Switch improved on 3DS and (early on at least) 3DS also improved from DS. Even the more resistant teams at the big publishers (RGG Studio, BNS 1/3, FF/KH teams, Capcom Dev1, Team Ninja, etc) will probably do more than they have been and potentially even bring properties they haven't before.
Regarding the FGC too I think it's important to remember that's one of the Japanese areas of dev we still saw heavy Sony investment and involvement in last gen. SFV exclusivity was obviously a huge thing but there was also marking support for games like KOFXIV and GGXrd (which coincidentally were also console exclusive) and we've now seen PlayStation buy Evo outright. These moves weren't necessarily to ice Nintendo out either, they were more directed against Xbox as a concerted effort was made to shift the FGC's platform of choice from 360 to PS4.
I think fighters on Switch were a huge missed opportunity for publishers, especially as retro/indie fighters have done exceptionally well on the system and Nintendo themselves actually put out some notably big efforts (Smash, Arms, Pokkén) but I also think that'll improve on Switch 2 as tech barriers shrink and Sony's direct investment seems to have cooled. I think SF6, KOFXV and STRIVE will all be on the system sooner than later and I don't think VF6 or Tekken 8 are out of reach this time either.
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Regardless of what’s under the hood, SIE and Xbox can still make the front end user experience different from a PC. The Switch uses parts that are close to off the shelf too but Nintendo purposely slimmed down the OS so it gets players into the games quickly. Nintendo also makes sure to release software that is complete and ready to play on the cartridge. Just insert media into slot and press play and you‘re playing Smash Bros. That snappy experience of plug and play is part of what differentiates Nintendo products from Steam.
SIE could also direct their first parties to make AA arcade style games in addition to $200 million “cinematic“ linear adventures.
They can use off the shelf parts on the hardware and differentiate themselves in other ways.
People talked for literally decades about Nintendo disappearing. I don't see why the same talk can't be had about 'Playstation' when the trends show the market they work in is dwindling.
'Walkman' was one of the biggest brands in the world and is now basically non-existant due to technology and market changes, it happens. Sony missed the boat several times to to pivot Walkman to digital players and later phones, they were to late to the party and Apple are their lunch twice.
The above 'walkman' process is what I expected to happen to Xbox sooner or later, in 10 years you can get an 'Xbox stick' or 'Xbox phone' or use the 'Xbox app' on your TV, just like walkman xbox still 'exists' so they can say it wasn't discontinued but it isn't the same thing. Playstation could end up the same way, Playstation branded gaming PC, Playstation branded phone etc. But not the 'Playstation 7'. At various points they could do pushes to 'jump back in' by naming their latest Playstation branded gaming PC 'Playstation 8' or something, maybe giving it some exclusive software you can't play on your EA PC or Xbox Phone, but still being a PC (maybe Linux or Android). Just like we've seen with Atari branded products over the last 20 years.
Not saying the above will absolutely happen, but it also could. Brands do die, even ones that were huge, especially in technology.
Why are you choosing the franchises that have their latest titles selling well? RE4R went past 7 mil and SF6 is selling better than 5.
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I changed my post to delete Resident Evil. I left Street Fighter in as it's well below its heyday both in cultural cache and sales.
It's too early to say that for 6 when it's still selling and receiving support. If it manages to hit Capcom's planned 10 mil that's a big step up from 5's 7.4 and a return to the 8-digit sales mark that only 2 & presumably 4 hit, both titles the most "impactful" in public perception of SF.
That is the problem, most of those people are not the kids in the room nor are the kids I am talking about. They no context of PlayStation and honestly, SIE seems to steer clear of these folks. They don't interact with the Group any at all outside of the limited points I already mentioned.
To the kids I am talking about... Sony isn't special at all, just another name in a sea of brands not fighting for their attention. SIE don't give them a reason to care so they don't.
Given that the Group has total control as of now, I do wonder if that will be enough.... because something tells me that is might not. They are already signaled that should Playstation find trouble, they will be no saviour. They might be able to delay it but their is a point where cutting loses becomes the only thing that can be done.
A little equal opportunity doomsaying? Despite PS3 forcing a few big names to second guess where they would put their next big efforts (my head canon seems to slot Monster Hunter Tri, Dragon Quest X and Tales of Graces into this category) and Vita being a publisher repellent Sony hasn't had to fight for bigger titles since the challenge from Xbox 360 and Wii.
We are now in a era where 2 things are the reality.
1. Bigger titles need an eye on global sales.
2. The platform with the biggest install base isn't guaranteed the most investment.
Or in other words the Wii U/PS4/Xbox One really was the generation companies "locked in' their gains both in terms of business-to-business and businesses-to-consumer dealings.
The point being, the original PlayStation burst onto the scene and wrestled the crown from the market leader and despite losing it since it he as a hold on the support that crown gave. Simply because game production isn't as flippant as it use to be. These days projects are big ships with small rudders.
It's an interesting exercise to think about, life after hardware for PlayStation, but you would need a good reason for it to get to that point.
Yes PlayStation isn't the brand selling $99 consoles and turning them into a semi-open platform in places like India. It's no longer positioned as the platform of the people despite their slogan. Their snobs, through and through. But in the age of $1000 smartphones and oil-rich emerging markets SIE pick that lane instead. They are happy with their share of the 200-300 million console customers there have been for the last 25 years and they are taking steps to maintain it with acquisitions and moneyhatting exclusives. If they still have the mindset of Nintendo being gateway drug and themselves being the full experience then it's enough to decimate Xbox's share and wait for the late gen sales. "I don't have to out run the bear, I just need to outrun you."
As far as the higher ups view on the subject. This isn't quite like say Sony's movie business or even streaming. They are entirely in the driver's seat in the gaming industry. They are the gate keepers that control every aspect from dev kit allocation, game approval and distribution. It's a large market that they can control. It's what executives dream of. They might not bankroll 7 years of losses for it but SIE is fighting to compete in a tough business climate and still make generally smart moves. It's not the hubris of the PS3 era.
Honestly not sure if I should put this here but since it’s in regard to potential AAA projects
www.videogameschronicle.com
WOW is doing well
D4 is doing okay
OW2 is looking to try & fix their issues
We’ll see what they’ll do within the next year & if they fixed their other issues.
Microsoft has ‘let Blizzard be Blizzard’ following its acquisition, studio says | VGC
Microsoft has “let Blizzard be Blizzard,” following the acquisition of the veteran developer according to World of Warcraft’s executive producer.
www.videogameschronicle.com
I think that is the right call for now from a business perspective.
WOW is doing well
D4 is doing okay
OW2 is looking to try & fix their issues
We’ll see what they’ll do within the next year & if they fixed their other issues.
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I keep having to repeat this, and I shouldn’t: Japan, still the 2nd-largest single country market for non-mobile video games in the world last I checked, is part of the globe. If you use the term “global” as a synonym for “mostly Western”, you're doing a disservice to your point.
To this other part, there was a time when publishers genuinely believed that the Japanese market was in a downturn for console games that they did not have the means to reverse themselves. Because in the timeline when this was all going on:
- Wii 3rd-party sales were absolutely abysmal in Japan despite the install base
- DS was offering smaller games for less revenue earned per sale, but was at least a lifeline at the start of the “downturn”
- 3DS was doing really well in Japan, but after a rough start and zero recovery in non-Japanese markets, and had the same issues as the DS
- Wii U was a global failure
- SIE successfully lobbied publishers in Japan to ignore their domestic market in favour of sales in the rest of the world
And then in comes the Switch. Truly global success (including in Japan), strong 3rd-party sales of console-priced titles for the kind of revenue intake publishers want… aside from its tech specs, it resolves every lack that their other options did not and upends every misconception about the future prospects of the console market, especially in the market areas that were thought to be flagging, and even livened up some new console markets like South Korea.
You look at this issue where the big install base isn't guaranteed the most investment as though it is a continuing trend, where I see it as an aberration caused by market distortions that cannot be sustained in the long term. At most, the C-suites have got one more hardware cycle of being completely fucking embarrassed before they cave, but the likelihood is that a fair chunk of them aren't gonna wait. And lord knows what happens to their business if they do stick it out that long.
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Honestly not sure if I should put this here but since it’s in regard to potential AAA projects
Microsoft has ‘let Blizzard be Blizzard’ following its acquisition, studio says | VGC
Microsoft has “let Blizzard be Blizzard,” following the acquisition of the veteran developer according to World of Warcraft’s executive producer.
I think that is the right call for now from a business perspective.
WOW is doing well
D4 is doing okay
OW2 is looking to try & fix their issues
We’ll see what they’ll do within the next year & if they fixed their other issues.
Yeah I get the perspective of Holly here when it comes to WoW specifically.
They've completely overhauled how they do things and why they do it as far as the WoW dev philosophy and players have been mostly very receptive, leading to quite the resurgence for the game especially considering Shadowlands caused historica low subs count and massive player discontent among the community.
Literally the worst sub numbers ever(post Vanilla) even with Classic being there.
It would be a big shame if Microsoft then decided that they need to change things up and causing good things to go haywire.
I'm not suggesting you ignore Japan but if you are dealing with $50M-$150M budgets most third parties can't recoup those kind of costs even in the #1 market. So it needs to be a patchwork of different regions and different platforms.
The path of least resistance has been PC which doubles the size of the PS/XB base even if many lack the minimum specs needed to play the latest games.
The people making and marketing the games are fixated on the state of the art but also consider a couple of boxes that are comparable to mid-range PCs at best all because of their install base.
Logic would say Switch and PC all day. Big install bases and streamline you SKU list. You still get to target the highest specs and features even if they are not present in the console version. However the 4K twins are still the lynchpin of the AAA scene and it's coming up to 20 years since that has been the case. It's a predictable foundation.
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This is the difference between being technically correct and being realistically correct. Given that the PC market is still just beginning to grow in size and the state of PS/XB software sales in Japan... yeah, the current trajectory is practically a de facto abandonment of Japan, despite it demonstrating it does still have the capacity to sell large amounts of software if different choices were made. There is no "eye" on Japan as part of "global sales", and that's clear in how the market for AAA games has dwindled there by their own actions; if that's publishers with an "eye" on their domestic market as part of the global market, they by and large need to go for a vision test.
Were it so predictable of a foundation, I doubt highly that this thread would exist, as the instability of this paradigm as it currently exists is the entire basis of the discussion. Predictability and instability are nearly diametrically opposed to each other. And even if you discard that position, this "predictable foundation" is in decline and trying to prevent the decline within the status quo is only going to lead to some really off-putting trends (more than the ones that have already been attempted), further distorting the market and likely accelerating the decline to their detriment.
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PC may have double the installbase but as far as selling games is concerned it tend to have 10-20% share of 90% of AAA games released in any given year. With some exceptions like Diablo 4 or Cyberpunk 2077. Elden Ring as well from what I remember where PC version can reach 40% of overall sales.
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I hope you’re right. I’d like to the large Japanese third parties to survive as they make many good games.
My cynical lenses say that they’ll do nothing to change because it would require admitting they’ve been wrong about the nature of the video game business since 2006. It would mean admitting to the shareholders that they purposely passed on one of the biggest sales opportunities in the history due to their own hubris and cluelessness.
It would also mean that they’d have to openly go against the closed bubble they’ve built up for themselves since 2006. One of my backgrounds is in economics and I’ve learned that macroeconomists and financial people will double and triple down rather than admit they are wrong. They may change their investment strategy but never admit they are changing course. Just look at all the doom and gloom predictions of a U.S. recession that have been relentless since 2021. Have the people that have been wrong for three years admitted that they misread the economic indicators or that their thinking was flawed? Nope. They keep saying the same trash. I work with that garbage and nobody listens to me despite me being right and then being wrong.
The difference is that if you call for a recession, you’ll eventually be right within 20 years. In the video game business, you’ll go bankrupt long before that.
I think the C Suite will only figure out that the production managers’ hubris and self constructed information bubble leads to ruin after it’s too late. For now, they don’t get in the weeds regarding target hardware for development as long as it’s profitable. By the time it’s not profitable on a cash flow basis, it’ll be pretty much too late to change course due to the high cost and long time frame of AAA development.
I hope you’re right and I’m wrong though.
Agree with all your points except Tekken 8, it would be a miracle to see that game on Switch 2 (reason: Harada)
I think Switch has gotten more fighters than other generations, but still missing a few
So distilled into campaign slogan form it would be "Don't abandon Japan, Support Switch."?
Publishers want to be in a place where they can launch on any platform and even if ignored by their domestic market still have a chance of catching the wave that lets them make that investment back, like what anime and fighting games currently enjoy.
This business has always been feast or famine. It is inherently risky and has only become moreso with ballooning budgets. You can plan for success but it's not guaranteed even if you support every platform every time. PS360's verifiable 170M+ base is roughly the same as where people peg PS4+Xbox One. This thread exists because despite the foundation remaining the same budgets are approaching a 10x increase of the $20M needed back in Gen 7. Cue $70 base prices, early access premiums, SKU spreadsheets, microtransactions, season passes, battle passes, etc etc.
It's not going to Disco Stu your sales overnight but it gives you a chance, however slight, of reaching a bigger audience. Sometimes you end up a Wild Hearts and sometimes you end up with a Helldivers 2.
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I’d go more with “meet your customers where they’re at, not where you want them to be”. Cuz that’s just good business advice in general, and it's a lesson that publishers have been exceedingly slow to learn because, largely through just the circumstances of the market during any given year, they really didn't ever have to learn that lesson, going all the way back to the mid-90s; where their customers were at and where they wanted their customers to be had largely been completely in sync. Switch is the first full-throated serious challenge to conventional market wisdom in over 2 decades by (aside from variable play options) a device that is largely conventional, so I find it difficult to imagine that everyone is going to pretend it didn't happen, especially when we already have members of the C-suite commenting in the direction that they're not.
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Do you think the C suite will take action to remove the prediction managers who continue to ignore Nintendo? We saw it at Sega yet nothing has changed. Square just promoted the guys who presided over the IP’s decline.
You hit the nail on the head. When it comes to inputs, storage, digital store, post-launch support and display support Switch is almost like the other boxes which should make it easy to plug into any business plan.
It's still an HD console so making a separate version is still an expensive undertaking. It's capable enough to make it a lead platform all other versions are based on. Tears of the Kingdom and Prime Remastered would still impress if running on more capable tech.
New Switch will likely have the polygon pushing power of an Xbox One and the shader tech of a Xbox Series S all while only sipping 10-15W. Last gen visuals can still impress without RT. With RT people will be questioning why Rebirth Cloud needs twice the polygons over Remake Cloud and why it takes 9 months to make a car in GT7.
Maximum detail is appreciated but not at the cost of needing to employ a small army you might have to layoff if you don't meet your expectations.
As far as chasing fat install bases or "going where your audience is"? I'm sure the tech and maybe even the art guys would like the challenge. The money people probably yearn for an 'every platform, every time' approach. At the end of the day when producers/directors are putting their pitches together they can point to the biggest, your Elden Rings, Monster Hunter Worlds and Final Fantasy XVs to upsell the project with the standard "go big or go home", "why can't that be us?" and exploit the natural tendency to explore and compete.
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Let them keep declining, they earned it.
it sucks for the employees but the AAA space dying is not a bad thing overall, it’s a really toxic industry and I hope it leads into gains down thebfuture.
But the industry Sony and Xbox built up is actively awful and it’s pretty hard to hide my distaste se for it at this point when their current generations are better known for the games and devs they ran into the ground rather than the 12 exclusive games sony has out.
Hopefully the ps6 returns them to the ps1 and 2 style days.
The AAA console space has devolved into "what if we force consumers to pick between VHS and Betamax every 6 years, forever, and assume that will just keep going?" There is nowhere left for that paradigm to go when the hardware is near-identical and even comes from the same partner who supplies both sides, and the one "competitor" that at least offered some interesting variability in power/pricing (series S) has completely failed thanks to the poor decisions of its parent company and its complete lack of presence internationally. We've had 2 straight generations offering 2 variations of a near-identical spec and it should be clear to everyone there is absolutely no justification for it.
Let's project that Xbox keeps diminishing (they haven't shown any signs of learning lessons) for another generation, and imagine how Sony and AAAs will behave in that situation. It doesn't sound good, does it? A company that has a free hand to arbitrarily hike prices again, raise subscription fees (they barely bother to adequately deliver classic games as part of these subs right now, despite their competitor's good backwards compatibility offering), throw millions at backfiring exclusivity deals (not backfiring for Sony, but for e.g. the lunatic leadership at Square), and will continue to keep its own studios one failure away from layoffs, despite its market position.
It will be an absolute disaster and I think it will never sustain itself, greed will destroy multiple AAA studios and possibly bring down some publishers despite the so-called "reduction of risk". Nintendo will provide a counterbalance (frankly if you're a large indie you will thrive in an environment where you will have the combination of Steam discoverability, Nintendo's hardware reach, and lack of competition from a AAA segment that seems to actively try to annoy their own customers and developers), but the only way forward will be realigning the AAA industry into a consortium-based agreement for hardware specs/instruction set, and allowing multiple competitors to compete within that space. This would re-open a currently closed and completely stifled section of the industry and force it onto a path similar to the more mature entertainment industries, which are better for the customer. Sony and Microsoft will never agree to it - Sony would be losing the advantage of having an entire market segment to itself, and Microsoft would oppose any agreement that they can't use as a trojan horse for Windows/DirectX adoption, their entire reason for being in this industry. So it will probably result in Valve extending Steam Deck/Steam OS into a AAA-capable home device that delivers a competing open standard against the current trajectory of home consoles. Nintendo forms the Apple-equivalent closed alternative.
If this doesn't happen, then we'll live in a time of monsters, because the home console market will consist of:
1) Sony having a de facto monopoly closed platform in most international markets
2) Whatever legacy support Microsoft offers as they limp towards the exit
3) The worst tech monopolists on earth dipping their toes into the market every decade or so, creating only negative impacts on the industry, before leaving after having bought and then destroyed 2 or more studios. This approach has already severely damaged VR.
GTA publisher Take-Two joins the flood of gaming layoffs — which could be felt for years
We got 19K layoffs before GTA 6… Gamers have been waiting 11 years for the next “Grand Theft Auto,” but there’s no joyriding in the industry...
sherwood.news
Realistically, so considering how all the major players tend to act, this whole thing is bound to fail eventually. Not everyone at once, rather it's that bad news are going to become the norm for most of the industry in pretty much any given year.
Regarding the question whether Sony or Microsoft will do something to grow the installed base, the answer is clearly that they won't. I don't think that I need to go into detail about Microsoft, because it should be evident to everyone that Microsoft is moving towards a future where they can ultimately stop selling hardware altogether. Hence why I'll talk only about Sony.
When the Vita struggled, Sony was quick to give it all up. The Vita launched in America and Europe in February 2012 and it was as early as June 2013 at that year's E3 that Sony's message was about the end of their handheld line. When PS as a whole faced decline in Japan, Sony did nothing major to reverse course, instead shifting more towards America and Europe where things were still fine. Now, when the profitability of the PS division is deemed as insufficient by the Sony bosses, Sony talks about an increased multiplatform approach, meaning more of their first party games on the PC. There's a pattern of flight instead of fight here, hence the obvious answer in the preceding paragraph of this post.
So we will have this slow process of the AAA console marketplace collapsing. But the thing is that by the time it happens, there won't be many gamers who will be sad about it. That's because the chosen path of the industry is increased monetization and there's only so much that gamers are willing to take. The point is that the industry is already terminally ill, so rather than finding a cure for it, it would be preferable to let it die over the course of the next ten years or so, and have it be rebuilt into something that is a whole lot more consumer-friendly. Sony and Microsoft have built this unhealthy construct and both of them can't be bothered to fix it in any way; they are like captains who are among the first ones to leave a sinking ship.
Regarding the question whether Sony or Microsoft will do something to grow the installed base, the answer is clearly that they won't. I don't think that I need to go into detail about Microsoft, because it should be evident to everyone that Microsoft is moving towards a future where they can ultimately stop selling hardware altogether. Hence why I'll talk only about Sony.
When the Vita struggled, Sony was quick to give it all up. The Vita launched in America and Europe in February 2012 and it was as early as June 2013 at that year's E3 that Sony's message was about the end of their handheld line. When PS as a whole faced decline in Japan, Sony did nothing major to reverse course, instead shifting more towards America and Europe where things were still fine. Now, when the profitability of the PS division is deemed as insufficient by the Sony bosses, Sony talks about an increased multiplatform approach, meaning more of their first party games on the PC. There's a pattern of flight instead of fight here, hence the obvious answer in the preceding paragraph of this post.
So we will have this slow process of the AAA console marketplace collapsing. But the thing is that by the time it happens, there won't be many gamers who will be sad about it. That's because the chosen path of the industry is increased monetization and there's only so much that gamers are willing to take. The point is that the industry is already terminally ill, so rather than finding a cure for it, it would be preferable to let it die over the course of the next ten years or so, and have it be rebuilt into something that is a whole lot more consumer-friendly. Sony and Microsoft have built this unhealthy construct and both of them can't be bothered to fix it in any way; they are like captains who are among the first ones to leave a sinking ship.
The sad part is that I think Microsoft bought a lot of talent and also have the hardware to actually broaden its base, if used correctly. They could have positioned the series s as a casual friendly/family friendly machine. Put some of the talent trying to find new avenues of growth. Instead they went all in on game pass, a product that is only good for people buying multiple games a year. That is not the casual base that is interested in a smaller and cheaper box.
Many seems to forget that xbox 360 had a proper success with Kinect. Series S could have been used to regain that market.
Series S should have been pushed with things like Minecraft and family friendly games, not with 3 months of game pass.
"If used correctly" is one hell of a qualifier for the notoriously mismanaged first party studios of Microsoft under Phil Spencer. But even if used correctly, you'd still have a $300 box that competes with a $300 Switch that has Minecraft and dozens of Nintendo games. Maybe that was a factor in Microsoft's decision not to bother with your proposed strategy? No, I don't think so. I doubt they even considered such an approach, because the purpose of the Series S was nothing more than being afraid of having only a $500 box to sell.
But even in the event that the Series S were to be pushed as a family-friendly system, what gain would there be for the AAA industry that is known for making hardly any family-friendly games? Sure, Microsoft might have been able to sell a few million more consoles this way, but all the same problems would have persisted for the industry. Word is that the industry loathes the existence of the Series S anyway. Too weak specs, too much extra work.
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- She/Her
Has the series S even sold as much as the Wii u or do we not know the split.
Well neither PS2 or xbox360 was only for AAA cinematic games. Both of them were successful in bringing in other gamers then the AAA crowd. Guitar Hero, Kinect, singstar, buzz and more.
And the reason for why Microsoft should add such a strategy is that Microsoft needs to get their console in to more peoples homes. As a father I have at the moment no incentives to go either Sony nor Microsoft when Nintendo offers both games for me and my kids.
Will it be easy to compete with Nintendo? No, but Microsoft is also failing its competition with Sony. Would it be that expensive to relaunch things like guitar hero? Or using Double fine to create more humourous games. Bundles with Minecraft or Spyro?
People joining the brand might stick around and in the future be a AAA gamer or a game pass customer.
It seems to me that the AAA industry has become so expensive and resource heavy that they have forgotten that their is also kids out there. The hope seems to be that kids should join the industry through Nintendo and then go to another brand.
Xbox Series X Vs. Series S: Which Sells Better?
Thanks to the Xbox leak and other sources, we now have a better idea of the sales split between the two devices.
www.gamespot.com
Series S sold much better early on simply due to the fact that Microsoft had produced more of them and supply for both the Series X and PS5 were limited by semiconductor shortages. Since the end of these shortages and now that people have an actual choice, there's an about even split between the S and X in monthly sales, at least in the USA according to Piscatella. But it's likely that this applies worldwide too. The thing is, though, that Microsoft now needs to go for big discounts on Series S consoles to move stock, so I wouldn't say that demand for them is particularly high.
From there we can guess our way to an LTD split of 60:40 in favor of the Series S by March 2024. Combined Xbox Series sales should be in the neighborhood of 30 million, so it's very probable that the Series S has outsold the Wii U's 13.56m already. From the industry's perspective, that isn't a good thing though, because like I said, developers don't like to make concessions to get their games running on the S. Or in other words, you could say that the current gen installed base of the Xbox that matters is still below 15 million after a good three years on the market. This is the reason for this:
Developers Reportedly Losing Interest In Xbox
A "major company" who released a big game last year reportedly said, "I don't know why we bothered supporting [Xbox]."
www.thegamer.com
Microsoft's response to troubling Xbox sales is not about initiatives to make Xbox hardware sell more, but rather the opposite. By porting their games to the PS5, they are fueling the expectation that the rest of their portfolio will follow suit eventually, therefore disincentivizing the purchase of an Xbox console. The only bright spot for the industry here is that third parties can feel less worried about scrapping Xbox versions of their games altogether, so they can reduce development costs a bit by targeting only the PS5 and PC. But it's not that much money that is being saved, because porting costs from a PS console to Xbox or vice versa were allegedly only around 10% of the total development costs already two generations ago.
I mean, yeah, there are measures that can be taken to soften the blow of rising costs for the AAA industry, but I have to say that it's not really interesting to discuss them when the companies involved show no intentions to do any of that. Back during 2013 to 2015 it was very interesting to discuss Nintendo's future, because it was clear from their investor briefings that they wanted to get back on top, so speculating about Nintendo's actions was more than a plain thought experiment.
But with Microsoft, we get none of that. Phil Spencer's priority since taking over has been all about PR and trying to give Microsoft a good guy image after the Xbox One disaster. "We are such nice guys that you won't have to buy our hardware to play our games." - That about sums it up when it comes to their business strategy in the console/PC market.
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- He
I’m fascinated about how the third party publishers continue to ride the PS5 into stagnation and decline too. It’s over a longer period than Xbox but the writing is on the wall. SIE isn’t as profitable as Sony Group Corp. would like and they aren’t doing anything to change that. The GAAS initiative and buying Bungie was supposed to be the big plan. SIE has now abandoned the plan since it wasn’t going to work. They haven’t yet offered a plan to contain costs and/or attract new customers.Xbox Series X Vs. Series S: Which Sells Better?
Thanks to the Xbox leak and other sources, we now have a better idea of the sales split between the two devices.
Series S sold much better early on simply due to the fact that Microsoft had produced more of them and supply for both the Series X and PS5 were limited by semiconductor shortages. Since the end of these shortages and now that people have an actual choice, there's an about even split between the S and X in monthly sales, at least in the USA according to Piscatella. But it's likely that this applies worldwide too. The thing is, though, that Microsoft now needs to go for big discounts on Series S consoles to move stock, so I wouldn't say that demand for them is particularly high.
From there we can guess our way to an LTD split of 60:40 in favor of the Series S by March 2024. Combined Xbox Series sales should be in the neighborhood of 30 million, so it's very probable that the Series S has outsold the Wii U's 13.56m already. From the industry's perspective, that isn't a good thing though, because like I said, developers don't like to make concessions to get their games running on the S. Or in other words, you could say that the current gen installed base of the Xbox that matters is still below 15 million after a good three years on the market. This is the reason for this:
Developers Reportedly Losing Interest In Xbox
A "major company" who released a big game last year reportedly said, "I don't know why we bothered supporting [Xbox]."
Microsoft's response to troubling Xbox sales is not about initiatives to make Xbox hardware sell more, but rather the opposite. By porting their games to the PS5, they are fueling the expectation that the rest of their portfolio will follow suit eventually, therefore disincentivizing the purchase of an Xbox console. The only bright spot for the industry here is that third parties can feel less worried about scrapping Xbox versions of their games altogether, so they can reduce development costs a bit by targeting only the PS5 and PC. But it's not that much money that is being saved, because porting costs from a PS console to Xbox or vice versa were allegedly only around 10% of the total development costs already two generations ago.
I mean, yeah, there are measures that can be taken to soften the blow of rising costs for the AAA industry, but I have to say that it's not really interesting to discuss them when the companies involved show no intentions to do any of that. Back during 2013 to 2015 it was very interesting to discuss Nintendo's future, because it was clear from their investor briefings that they wanted to get back on top, so speculating about Nintendo's actions was more than a plain thought experiment.
But with Microsoft, we get none of that. Phil Spencer's priority since taking over has been all about PR and trying to give Microsoft a good guy image after the Xbox One disaster. "We are such nice guys that you won't have to buy our hardware to play our games." - That about sums it up when it comes to their business strategy in the console/PC market.
I also don’t get why these publishers haven’t tried many low budget family friendly games to try to find the next hit.
I am stunned at how the c-suite of these companies don’t understand their business. All they do is manage by backwards looking income statements and make cuts. It’s sad for us video game fans who like to play video games.
You should probably check what's the biggest game of the year so far. (- family friendly of course)
I'm not, the thing about these corporations is that video games is not their main business. So it is not that hard to see a disconnect when thier foray into videogames gets rocky, as it inevitably gets.
I think the thing that shielded SIE the most was Ken and his political maneuvering, pushing SIE into parts of the company with a revenue stream so massive (Like SMG) that Playstation would go unnoticed... till the PS3 and 2008 happened.
Weell, Helldivers has an even greatwr than expected result
On the other hand we had cancellation of what, three GaaS projects out of 12?
So far the huge GaaS strategy gave at least mixed results, with MLB the show as average/standard, Helldivers as great and other project facing development issues/projected P&L doubts at a point of cancellation/layoffs
I wonder how they will take these mixed situation into consideration from now on: pretty curious about this
What third party publishers are doing in their minds is take the safe route, even if this may sound absurd when we consider the inevitable destination of ever-rising game development costs in combination with a stagnating/declining base of customers. They know the audience is there, they know what the audience will likely buy, they know that there will be less competition over time because fewer big budget games get released overall, and they know that they can inherit sales from publishers who have to bow out of this business model. That's why the end of this road won't be reached during this decade, because there's still enough of a reason to believe that the AAA business can continue to work.