The reasons and consequences of the decline of Playstation in Japan [UPDATE: New Guidelines]

Are we sure it was Sonys idea to make Lego horizon multiplat? Lego might not have green lit the project without it.
Folks have pointed out that the lack of Xbox throws a wrench into that theory. As yeah, you're not going to sell oodles of a Lego game on Xbox, that's pretty certain, but if Lego had the authority, why would they not just have Sony put the game on everything that can run it ala MLB The Show?

I certainly appreciate the smart down-sizing of platforms as this also helps give the Switch version hopefully more tender love and care, as doubling the platform count (say adding PS4, XBO, and XBS/X) would be straining on anyone. Just ask the Balan Wonderworld team.
I’m referring to Nintendo’s lack of mature games.
Ah, nevermind then. Sorry. :P I see what you meant there now.
 
Folks have pointed out that the lack of Xbox throws a wrench into that theory. As yeah, you're not going to sell oodles of a Lego game on Xbox, that's pretty certain, but if Lego had the authority, why would they not just have Sony put the game on everything that can run it ala MLB The Show?

I certainly appreciate the smart down-sizing of platforms as this also helps give the Switch version hopefully more tender love and care, as doubling the platform count (say adding PS4, XBO, and XBS/X) would be straining on anyone. Just ask the Balan Wonderworld team.

Ah, nevermind then. Sorry. :p I see what you meant there now.

MLB makes a lot of money for Sony. $200M a year and an entire studio built around it so Sony is willing to follow MLB's requirements.
Horizon LEGO is a side project meant to increase the popularity of the IP. Sony has better leverage, will walk away and LEGO likely thinks a good selling Horizon LEGO will make good money.
 
Yeah, it's honestly insane how Sony has given up on the idea of competing with Nintendo in the kid's game market.
It's one of those ideas that I bet keeps bouncing around SIE, to which some executive will point to The Wonder book. Which just about end any discussion about heading in that direction.

To be fair SIE, tends to have this habit where if they don't immediately see a return on any investment, they start motioning to pull out of it.
 
I think the idea that sony will put other games on the switch is misguided.

Lego Horizon makes sense because it is an attempt to introduce the IP to new customers and lure them into sony's ecosystem to play the real games in the series.

That wouldn't be the case if they start putting mainline entries of their games on other systems.

Collections and other derivative entries are more likely to appear on other systems though.

Would be nice if it ain't so and sony surprises us all and starts to see sales potential in their more japanese side
 
Lego Horizon makes sense because it is an attempt to introduce the IP to new customers and lure them into sony's ecosystem to play the real games in the series.
That has about as much chance of happening as a PC owner playing Last of Us 1 on Steam and then abandoning the thousands of dollars they've spent on PC hardware and software for a PS5, i.e. almost zero, because customers don't behave this way. If Sony actually believe this they are delusional about the pull they think late ports or spinoffs will have. I don't think they're delusional, so I can only assume that they're doing this for the most obvious reason - they're trying to increase their margins on any given piece of software without going fully multiplatform for all releases, because they're wary of the implications this will have on their business.
 
That has about as much chance of happening as a PC owner playing Last of Us 1 on Steam and then abandoning the thousands of dollars they've spent on PC hardware and software for a PS5, i.e. almost zero, because customers don't behave this way. If Sony actually believe this they are delusional about the pull they think late ports or spinoffs will have. I don't think they're delusional, so I can only assume that they're doing this for the most obvious reason - they're trying to increase their margins on any given piece of software without going fully multiplatform for all releases, because they're wary of the implications this will have on their business.
I agree except the last part. While not full-MS, this is peeking inside Pandora's Box. This IS setting a precedent for even existing.

You can't technically use MLB The Show against this as Sony were super upfront, right in the announcement PR, that this was forced by the MLB themselves. Nothing of the sort's been said about this yet, which definitely makes it more likely to be Sony actually doing this by choice.
 
I think the idea that sony will put other games on the switch is misguided.

Lego Horizon makes sense because it is an attempt to introduce the IP to new customers and lure them into sony's ecosystem to play the real games in the series.
It's premature to talk about how Sony will put more games on the Switch. But it's not premature to talk about how Sony might put more games on the Switch.

Platform holders jealously guard their first party games, or at least they did historically. For some, like Nintendo, even allowing certain characters to appear in multi-platform games is a step too far. This is way beyond that; for a game starring a prized first party character to appear on a rival platform is no little thing.

Does it "make sense"? I believe so, but that itself is the big thing. It means we're out of the territory of clear lines, where under no circumstances does Sony put their own IP on rival console, and into more complicated territory where it's about a balance of risk and rewards.
 
That's like saying Nintendo gave up on competing in the AAA blockbuster/high end graphics market.

I think it's more that they don't want to compete in those markets rather than giving up.

Both know their audiences and are good on what they are doing.
Even if one accepts the premise about Nintendo, there’s a clear difference: only one of those platform strategies involved sacrificing software sales in the 2nd-largest single-country console market in the world.
 
I think the idea that sony will put other games on the switch is misguided.

Lego Horizon makes sense because it is an attempt to introduce the IP to new customers and lure them into sony's ecosystem to play the real games in the series.

That wouldn't be the case if they start putting mainline entries of their games on other systems.

Collections and other derivative entries are more likely to appear on other systems though.

Would be nice if it ain't so and sony surprises us all and starts to see sales potential in their more japanese side

Ehh... I am not so sure on that. We said that last time with MS as well and they slowly become third party pubs now.

As long as both MS and SIE does not consider nintendo platform as direct competitor. I think there will always be chance for SIE to pivot if they see Lego Horizon did well on Switch.

First, the argument will be older games can be ported to Nintendo platform, then more casual/kids friendly IP. And then SIE will need to come out with excuse to shareholders on why they are not doing more. In world of shareholders and capitalism. Companies is always at mercy on unlimited growth so the moment the gate is open. It is just the case of how far it will keep being pushed.
 
Ehh... I am not so sure on that. We said that last time with MS as well and they slowly become third party pubs now.

As long as both MS and SIE does not consider nintendo platform as direct competitor. I think there will always be chance for SIE to pivot if they see Lego Horizon did well on Switch.

First, the argument will be older games can be ported to Nintendo platform, then more casual/kids friendly IP. And then SIE will need to come out with excuse to shareholders on why they are not doing more. In world of shareholders and capitalism. Companies is always at mercy on unlimited growth so the moment the gate is open. It is just the case of how far it will keep being pushed.

I'm definitely seeing arguments about why Rings of Power isn't on Netflix, why Stranger Things isn't on Disney+.

Disney every so often you will see a Disney property on a competitor's service because Disney is so big and ubiquitous and limiting their I.P. to their service alone would do more hard than good. Like how Microsoft sees Minecraft and now COD.

Shareholders are greedy, not oblivious to how the world around them works. Sony can still shift 120M units of hardware and embracing PC means more potential revenue from people who wouldn't consider buying their games otherwise. With Lego Horizon SIE knows what their console's demographic is and they know what Lego's demographic is. Just like Destiny remaining playable on Xbox.
 
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I'm definitely seeing arguments about why Rings of Power isn't on Netflix, why Stranger Things isn't on Disney+.

Disney every so often you will see a Disney property on a competitor's service because Disney is so big and ubiquitous and limiting their I.P. to their service alone would do more hard than good. Like how Microsoft sees Minecraft and now COD.

Shareholders are greedy, not oblivious to how the world around them works. Sony can still shift 120M units of hardware and embracing PC means more potential revenue from people who wouldn't consider buying their games otherwise. With Lego Horizon SIE knows what their console's demographic is and they know what Lego's demographic is. Just like Destiny remaining playable on Xbox.

I mean.... this is example okay.

PS4 lets say hit 119m all and all. And then PS5.... also hit the same number for the HW sold. While it is great that the business hit the same height as last gen.

In the eyes of shareholders. Thats a big negative. Worse than even decline. Stagnation is place where they investment went to waste because there is no chance to make more money.

If decline happen they can use the dropping share price and value to play around for other newcomers. If it increase, they can get tons of money from their prior investment.

That's why i am not that optimistic on SIE stopping on just 1 title. Because for every success or failure, there will always be more pressure now by shareholders because they finally tasted the revenue/profit that multiplats bring.
 
A week ago any 1st party SIE published game releasing day and date on Switch at all would've been deemed impossible but here we are. It's foolish to draw hard parameters on this stuff now because frankly the lines just keep moving. What was unthinkable a year ago could be normalized next year, we've seen it with Xbox and we're starting to progressively see it with PlayStation now.
 
I mean.... this is example okay.

PS4 lets say hit 119m all and all. And then PS5.... also hit the same number for the HW sold. While it is great that the business hit the same height as last gen.

In the eyes of shareholders. Thats a big negative. Worse than even decline. Stagnation is place where they investment went to waste because there is no chance to make more money.

If decline happen they can use the dropping share price and value to play around for other newcomers. If it increase, they can get tons of money from their prior investment.

That's why i am not that optimistic on SIE stopping on just 1 title. Because for every success or failure, there will always be more pressure now by shareholders because they finally tasted the revenue/profit that multiplats bring.

You know better than most that it's not an issue of install base. If they wanted to chase records they would cut the price in half and make it look like a console instead of a backup dancer in a Lady Gaga music video.

What's important is money, graphs and boring acronyms.

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They are squeezing more money and engagement out of the customer as well as finding more customers on open platforms.

Like with Blue Dragon DS you have a case where your device alone isn't well suited for a internal pitch so investing in a project that can double as a lure for customers you normally wouldn't be able to reach is more an odd curiosity than a harbinger of things to come.

You have cases where a game is more a platform that needs to be on everything to make sense even after acquisition like Destiny and Minecraft.

Cases where projects are a last ditch attempt to make a little money like Hi-Fi Rush.

Cases where where a license holder forces the change like MLB.

But you will mostly see are attempts at reaching out towards what platform holders deem is neutral ground. Nintendo smartphone games and PlayStation PC games, usually only when they have to.
 
You know better than most that it's not an issue of install base. If they wanted to chase records they would cut the price in half and make it look like a console instead of a backup dancer in a Lady Gaga music video.

What's important is money, graphs and boring acronyms.

image.png


e2380d8f17c333b909433112643a5bb25f0398d5f5aa997a1394d18ad09c897c.jpg


yt3kM2G.png


They are squeezing more money and engagement out of the customer as well as finding more customers on open platforms.

Like with Blue Dragon DS you have a case where your device alone isn't well suited for a internal pitch so investing in a project that can double as a lure for customers you normally wouldn't be able to reach is more an odd curiosity than a harbinger of things to come.

You have cases where a game is more a platform that needs to be on everything to make sense even after acquisition like Destiny and Minecraft.

Cases where projects are a last ditch attempt to make a little money like Hi-Fi Rush.

Cases where where a license holder forces the change like MLB.

But you will mostly see are attempts at reaching out towards what platform holders deem is neutral ground. Nintendo smartphone games and PlayStation PC games, usually only when they have to.
To be fair @AruanaRiva was just giving the number of consoles as an example. They didnt say it was all about install base, but rather x number needs to go up otherwise its seen as stagnation by shareholders.
 
I feel like Nintendo's mobile initiative is basically dead. No new releases in half a decade and only four games in service now.
Good.

(I still think a Xenoblade Gacha-game would be a hit ,though ;>)
 
I feel like Nintendo's mobile initiative is basically dead. No new releases in half a decade and only four games in service now.
I think that the mobile titles were a marketing effort. Nintendo wanted to heat up their IP’s after the darkest days of the WiiU. Their IP’s are now all hot so there is no longer a need to risk the resources as well as risk devaluing their core business.
 
They are squeezing more money and engagement out of the customer as well as finding more customers on open platforms.
This is an excellent point that we need to emphasize as it gets back to the fundamental premise of this thread.

The PlayStation and Xbox combined have not grown the market in terms of its customer base. In order to grow, they need to get more money out of the same customer base. As it takes more buy-in for a customer to get into the ecosystem, that puts up barriers to entry to new customers.

What happens when those high quality, high spending customers move onto a different hobby or pass on from this world as we are all destined to do one day? While PlayStation is growing its revenues this year, what happens when the existing customers don’t feel like spending as much on PlayStation products?

This unsustainable business trajectory is why letting their Japanese business decline was a very risky long term strategy.
 
I feel like Nintendo's mobile initiative is basically dead. No new releases in half a decade and only four games in service now.
Good.

(I still think a Xenoblade Gacha-game would be a hit ,though ;>)
I think that the mobile titles were a marketing effort. Nintendo wanted to heat up their IP’s after the darkest days of the WiiU. Their IP’s are now all hot so there is no longer a need to risk the resources as well as risk devaluing their core business.
Nintendo did say Pikmin Bloom is the 1st of a series of collab apps with Niantic.
I know it's soon to be 3 years since its release, but I wouldn't say it's totally dead yet.
It's not made, published or serviced by Nintendo though, it's a collaborative licensing deal and Niantic's shouldering all the work. TPC is still doing a lot on mobile too but that's also sort of different.

Nintendo's last new mobile product was MK Tour way back in 2019.

Although MysticGon briefly mentionned it I don't think it's the proper topic to elaborate further in this thread
 
What happens when those high quality, high spending customers move onto a different hobby or pass on from this world as we are all destined to do one day? While PlayStation is growing its revenues this year, what happens when the existing customers don’t feel like spending as much on PlayStation products?

This unsustainable business trajectory is why letting their Japanese business decline was a very risky long term strategy.
That would leave the Japan market as a "canary in the coal mine" so to speak. It would lend itself to the hollowing out of the Asian region as we have been seeing collectively.
The fact that they are not growing the market outward has consequences in the medium to long term, and it does make me wonder what panic looks like at XGS and SIE. Both of them seem to be marching to a state where they are scrambling to "keep the lights on" despite their well pocketed backers. Any business that hit this state.... things are dire.

The thing is... many third-parties have build their businesses on the back of this. If that falls away? What do they do?
 
Although MysticGon briefly mentionned it I don't think it's the proper topic to elaborate further in this thread
Ah, yeah sorry. I meant to quote MG but it got lost in the shuffle somehow.

I guess I don't think Nintendo's 3rd party initiatives are really at all comparable to PlayStation's, if anything Xbox is more comparable to PS albeit a lot less conservative and more ambitious, but this is pretty offtopic for Japan specifically and would be better moved to the general 1st party thread.
 
You know better than most that it's not an issue of install base. If they wanted to chase records they would cut the price in half and make it look like a console instead of a backup dancer in a Lady Gaga music video.

What's important is money, graphs and boring acronyms.

image.png


e2380d8f17c333b909433112643a5bb25f0398d5f5aa997a1394d18ad09c897c.jpg


yt3kM2G.png


They are squeezing more money and engagement out of the customer as well as finding more customers on open platforms.

Like with Blue Dragon DS you have a case where your device alone isn't well suited for a internal pitch so investing in a project that can double as a lure for customers you normally wouldn't be able to reach is more an odd curiosity than a harbinger of things to come.

You have cases where a game is more a platform that needs to be on everything to make sense even after acquisition like Destiny and Minecraft.

Cases where projects are a last ditch attempt to make a little money like Hi-Fi Rush.

Cases where where a license holder forces the change like MLB.

But you will mostly see are attempts at reaching out towards what platform holders deem is neutral ground. Nintendo smartphone games and PlayStation PC games, usually only when they have to.

I am not saying the earning but just using console growth as example of one of the metric that shareholders will use when they are pushing for Sony to do stuff that they never does before. It is just part of business that is beholden to Shareholders.

Thats why i said, there is no guarantee in business plans.
 
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