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The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom sells over 10m units worldwide (first 3 days), fastest-selling game in series + Nintendo game in Americas/EU
- Thread starter Lite_Agent
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I wasn't talking about impactfulness. I just said Zelda is a faster game. Zelda isn't as deliberate with its animation because it's not so call and respond to moves like souls games are.
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We pretty much have the regional breakdown for the game, with Europe + Other making up the remaining 3.76 million and using the Europe versus Other Switch software ratio of 3.8 to 1.
America's: 4 million
Europe: 2.98 million
Japan: 2.24 million
Other: 0.78 million
America's: 4 million
Europe: 2.98 million
Japan: 2.24 million
Other: 0.78 million
I could’ve gotten it cheaper but I had an used GAME gift card and it came with the coin
Gift card.. fine! It's 50 at Argos and 48 at hit.co.uk
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It's already been said but the Japan numbers are wildly impressive here
The Americas love them some Zelda, but TOTK is selling to a much higher percentage of the Japanese population. The US and Canada are sitting at about ~370 million people, which means TOTK is in the hands of ~1.08% of the population. Japan's at about ~125 million, so ~1.78% of people in Japan have a copy of the game
That is silly.
It also makes me wish we had more granular, concrete numbers for different territories. I'd love to know how much the game sold in Canada and France in particular, since those are very strong Nintendo-oriented territories, traditionally
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Two things:
1. Elden Ring sold 12 million copies in 3 weeks across 5 platforms, while Hogwarts Legacy sold 12 million copies in 2 weeks across 3 platforms. Zelda selling 10 million in 3 fucking days on a single fucking platform is fucking mindblowing. It's truly become the 1B to Mario's 1A, so to speak. The series went from 10 million being a crowning achievement to going toe to toe with Pokemon worldwide within 2 mainline games.
2. "Zelda's doing peak Final Fantasy, Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest numbers in Japan, though it hasn't quite reached Splatoon's (and Pokemon and arguably Animal Crossing) level there - at least, not yet." is a fucking bonkers statement. Imagine telling people that 5 to 7years ago. And yet it's a true statement now. Like... what the fuck. The Switch era is something special, man.
1. Elden Ring sold 12 million copies in 3 weeks across 5 platforms, while Hogwarts Legacy sold 12 million copies in 2 weeks across 3 platforms. Zelda selling 10 million in 3 fucking days on a single fucking platform is fucking mindblowing. It's truly become the 1B to Mario's 1A, so to speak. The series went from 10 million being a crowning achievement to going toe to toe with Pokemon worldwide within 2 mainline games.
2. "Zelda's doing peak Final Fantasy, Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest numbers in Japan, though it hasn't quite reached Splatoon's (and Pokemon and arguably Animal Crossing) level there - at least, not yet." is a fucking bonkers statement. Imagine telling people that 5 to 7years ago. And yet it's a true statement now. Like... what the fuck. The Switch era is something special, man.
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Yeah we're seeing a lot of games really take off in sales nowadays but this is easily the most impressive yet.
Also the second point is after Splatoon, Pokémon and AC also had an insane explosion which hasn't yet been backed up by a second game doing that well. It's higher than most Pokémon launches.
This is something I've been pondering as well. 2D Mario games in the past had higher ceilings than 3D Mario but I think if Nintendo can nail a good New Super Mario Bros 3 along with the new excitement for Mario generated from the movie could lead back to some explosive sales for 2D Mario again. This would be similar to what Nintendo did in the past with Super Mario Bros 3 on NES. Bring back the boot!
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I have a Japanese eshop account, so due to the yen being weak I ended up paying $78 for a single voucher. So you could say I only paid $39 for TOTK.
It's wild to know that one of those 2.2 million japanese sales was for a guy living in Central America lmao
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Given how well NSMB series did and that a barebones port of NSMBU is going to blow well past 15 million...I would say yes.
Even the extremely safe and merely good NSMB2 did over 12 million on 3DS. Thats around half what NSMB did on DS.
Depends on launch timing though(and if they actually get ambitious with it. I would be pretty disapointed with just NSMB style and structure again. Something to refresh and excite could really capitalize on Nintendo's momentum in general and the new boost to the IP from the movie.)
I feel like if they make a 2D Mario with production values, and creativity more akin to Mario Odyssey then NSMB(fun games but also very safe and samey. Just not on the level of games like Galaxy or Odyssey) BOTW, Splatoon, Odyssey and Ringfit show how doing fresh/new things can pay off) could possibly sell at levels similar to Mario Kart.
The ceiling for 2D mario is absurdly high. Where the ceiling is...who knows but if Nintendo does everything right its definitely going to be extremely high quite and probably their highest selling platformer ever.
2D Mario has been underutilized since Wii. Mario Maker was brilliant and 3 absolutely should happen but the real money is in a fresh new 2D mario game.
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NSMBUD being at 15.41M (ahead of NSMB2's 13.41M) right now and having gotten a bigger boost from the Mario movie than other Mario games shows that a new 2D Mario game has immense potential.
I do believe a 2D Mario would come out swinging, but more so in its legs than its 1st week sales. Not saying it wouldn’t break records 1st week ( 1st few days) but I think the legs would be even more impressive. Then again, it could pull a Pokémon lol.
I’m interested in what a 3D Mario would do if released this year. I can see it doing Zelda/Pokémon numbers 1st week/few days, but I’m leaning on that being for the next systems first year lineup.
We will see.
I’m interested in what a 3D Mario would do if released this year. I can see it doing Zelda/Pokémon numbers 1st week/few days, but I’m leaning on that being for the next systems first year lineup.
We will see.
AruanaRiva
Member
Analyst
Top JP Predictor
Top JP Predictor
Atlus, Harada, Night game is the new Alliance!!!
Other being 0.78 is also great news as it shows nintendo is growing on all those market as well.(Example: For Indonesia market. Zelda ToTK is on par with Pokemon S/V as it one of the few switch game that break 1k preorder for multiple store. It is that big over here for a market that is not really given much love by Ninty.)
This is going to be nintendo homework in the future. Grow the other part even more.
Possible, pokesv did just over that but it had holiday to back it up. ToTK doing 18mil would suggest a very very strong quarter launch
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It was reported a couple of days ago that TOTK sold 500k in France.
AruanaRiva
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Analyst
Top JP Predictor
Top JP Predictor
Atlus, Harada, Night game is the new Alliance!!!
Without holiday. It will be kinda hard. Agreed with Tbone, 18m seems safer number to hit.
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Ehh, I think it will be at 22mil by June 30th.
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How much do you think a NewNSMB would sell? Oh and an open world Mario game too?
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It only needs to sell another 8 million because 18 million sell-through would mean 20 million shipped, for example Pokemon S/V had a sell through of 18 million and shipments of 20.61 million in it's first quarter.
I'm still expecting New Super Mario All-Stars (NSMB, NSMB2, NSMBWii) for the anniversary in 2025. Get everything on Switch basically.
For new games I almost wonder if it might not be worth it for Nintendo to start a different 2D subseries and start fresh leaving the New series behind as the DS/Wii/successors era of stuff?
For new games I almost wonder if it might not be worth it for Nintendo to start a different 2D subseries and start fresh leaving the New series behind as the DS/Wii/successors era of stuff?
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It's one of the best selling Switch games with over 15 million copies sold. Yes I know that New DS and New Wii sold 30 million, but there is clearly still a lot of life left in the "New" Mario franchise is Nintendo had opted to do "new super mario bros Switch".
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They brought back the green - in a more subtle way - for Tears of the Kingdom though!
20M for a new game releasing this year shouldn't be to tall of an ask if it brings something new to the table. Although I don't think that any 2D Mario game could have an opening even close to as big as TotK. Instead solid legs.
With an open world Mario game the question is, how much of a draw Bowser's Fury is for people who buy 3D World + Bowser's Fury. But I think a larger scale game like that has potential to sell more than what 3D World + Bowser's Fury is selling right now.
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The marketing for a true open world Mario game would easily help it to sell 20-30 million copies.
Bowser's Fury is absolutely amazing, I feel a lot of people are sleeping on it because of the 3D World part of the package (i.e. not appreciating that this is not a mere Wii U port with tiny story tacked on). If Nintendo extracted Bowser's Fury and expanded upon the formula more, I think it would blow up.
Do you account for JP/Overseas split? JP tends to be more upfront with these big Nintendo launches in the last few years, even in 3-day vs 1st Q comparisons, so this being less JP centric than their other big launches would change the picture a bit right?
*ACNH assumed to have launched at 7M
*SSBU assumed to have had 20% JP Digital Share for 3-Day launch
Launch Q shipment for the above has consistently seen non-JP numbers grow by a larger amount from weekend>quarter than in JP. Smallest multiplier delta between territories was PLA (maybe my Japan figure is wrong though...did it do 2M in JP at launch @Lelouch0612 @Hiska-kun or am I misremembering)?
Range I expect for TOTK is the following:
JP will do 1.5-1.9x of its launch 3-day
OS will do 2.0-2.5x of its launch 3-day
Which puts 1st Q range at 18.8M - 23.7M.
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This isn’t really a question right? Lol As much as you using it as a way to transition into your own forecast?Do you account for JP/Overseas split? JP tends to be more upfront with these big Nintendo launches in the last few years, even in 3-day vs 1st Q comparisons, so this being less JP centric than their other big launches would change the picture a bit right?
*ACNH assumed to have launched at 7M
*SSBU assumed to have had 20% JP Digital Share for 3-Day launch
Launch Q shipment for the above has consistently seen non-JP numbers grow by a larger amount from weekend>quarter than in JP. Smallest multiplier delta between territories was PLA (maybe my Japan figure is wrong though...did it do 2M in JP at launch @Lelouch0612 @Hiska-kun or am I mis-remembering)?
Range I expect for TOTK is the following:
JP will do 1.5-1.9x of its launch 3-day
OS will do 2.0-2.5x of its launch 3-day
Which puts 1st Q range at 18.8M - 23.7M.
But I do like the analysis and I think anything over 20m is above expectations
It would be great if Nintendo released stats on
1. How many new players joined the switch ecosystem. I think they disclose this for animal crossing.
2. For how many users this was their the first Zelda game (on the switch) vs. BOTW buyers.
LOL it started as a question and then I got curious and dug all this up and lo and behold. My bad, wasn't intentional, I just get unfocused a lot. Yeah no BS, >20M would probably mean outperformance given season + typical frontloading that should occur this point in hardware lifecycle.
For Animal Crossing, guessing that disclosure came during FY End report? Maybe we get something like that again but timing won't be favorable this time since it won't be till August I guess.
I think it was in 1 or 2 presentation slide decks RE: hardware sell-thru
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Thank you, this is good, though the number I'd ideally want would include digitalIt was reported a couple of days ago that TOTK sold 500k in France.
Ok that makes sense gotcha!
What's the sales potential for Baten Kaitos 1 & 2 Remastered?
No idea. The originals didn't sell much, so I don't see these selling much either.
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It doesn't even have to be a full open world game - a sequel to Mario Odyssey already has the potential to sell 20-30M (though I'd personally like to see Nintendo tackle a full open world Mario since I really enjoyed Bowser's Fury).
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Sure, realistically if you just glue the massive areas of odyssey together Bowser's Fury style you basically have what an open world 3d Mario should be.
True, though to be fair the market for non traditional JRPGs seems bigger nowadays especially on Nintendo systems - same is true for Monolith as a brand. In the end Bamco would not greenlight a Switch exclusive of that kind unless they thought they can sell a substantial amount of copies - we know how risk averse they can be when it comes to ports/Remasters.
We live in a era were Digimon Survive and a Mega Man Battle Network Collection can sell a lot of copys. A JRPG cult classic Duology from the Cube generation that never has ben re-released should do relatively well.
Can see them having an overall target of 250k-500k.
AruanaRiva
Member
Analyst
Top JP Predictor
Top JP Predictor
Atlus, Harada, Night game is the new Alliance!!!
Baten Kaitos remastered would be popping champange this time if it can sell 500k WW lol.
Indeed, no English dub and Origins still untranslated for Europe, this will be a tough sell.
I paid $99 on vouchers and used one on Zelda.
That was me too. I dont buy games digitally. I used mine for BotW back in March and TotK (I wanted to replay BotW and gave my OG copy to someone years ago)
$30 saved and next gen looking like $40 saved every 2 games
Just realized TOTK is the 19th Switch title to hit 10M+
Wonder how many more we will get of those. 20 are guaranteed Switch Sports only needs 400k more for that and it shipped almost a million last quarter.
And TOTK should become the 8th title to hit 20M+ at some point.
Wonder how many more we will get of those. 20 are guaranteed Switch Sports only needs 400k more for that and it shipped almost a million last quarter.
And TOTK should become the 8th title to hit 20M+ at some point.
And most of them are still at their full launch price.
we never even got a selects line this time around. Maybe we’ll get Switch Classics or something when the next system drops.
Super Mario Party is over 19M and should join the 20M+ club shortly as well:
- MK8
- AC:NH
- Smash Ult
- BOTW
- SMO
- Pokémon SwSh
- Pokémon SV
- TotK
- SMP
A 2D Mario game will assuredly make its way there. Hopefully, these Holidays.
WTH!!! They didn't even fully translate it for Europe?!
That is lazy! I like they don't even care, This is they're
chance to reintroduce this series to the masses.....I
mean literally +125m people and they don't even
translate it...
I seems like they're treating this game as a simple
schedule lineup buffer, Baten Kaitos deserves BETTER!
I think NSMBU will definitely get there. RFA could though it's legs have taken a hit, so it might fall short by a few million. Switch Sports also has a shot but that really depends on if Nintendo is going to continue adding sports to it.
A brand new 2D Mario game should be able to break 20 million, but I'm of the opinion that they should hold off 2D Mario until their next system. Maybe around 2026. I know it would be weird to not have a new Mario game in the same year as the movie, but it's just as weird that a new Mario game wasn't even announced in the lead up to the movie. As a matter of fact, NO Mario games have been confirmed for this year so far and we are more than halfway through May. There is nothing on the horizon. Has that ever been the case?
They should hold off on 2D Mario because that is going to be a system seller. You don't need a system seller this late in the Switch's life, especially since NSMBU DX is doing a good enough job. Kind of like how you have MK8 DX and don't need MK 9 on Switch. 3D Mario at launch in 2024 and then 2D Mario two years later would be ideal for me honestly. And then they could do Mario Maker 3 roughly 2 years after that. I know that it would be 7 years between Mario Maker 2 and a new 2D Mario if we wait until 2026, but it's also been almost 6 years since Odyssey. Also, isn't the 2D Mario team working on Pikmin 4? I don't think the 3D Mario team has releasing anything since Bowser's Fury.