The only other Zelda game that could come close is Ocarina of Time, which sold 2.5M in the US alone in its launch quarter (Nov-Dec 1998). Adding in sales from the rest of the world should put it around BOTW's 3.84M figure, probably above it.
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom sells over 10m units worldwide (first 3 days), fastest-selling game in series + Nintendo game in Americas/EU
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My forecast:
17m - 20m by the end of the June Q
Push 25m by the end of Dec Q
So we are looking at ~80% of BotW #s in 7 months
17m - 20m by the end of the June Q
Push 25m by the end of Dec Q
So we are looking at ~80% of BotW #s in 7 months
FW retail number
- 30% digital : 1.568M
- 40% digital : 1.328M
- 50% digital : 1.12M
- 60% digital : 896k
With a 85% sellthrough
FW retail number with
With 90% sellthrough
FW retail number with
With 80% sellthrough
FW retail number with
That's the the range to expect and the assumptions to start with (digital below 30% of above 60% is unlikely, sellthrough outside the 80-90% range is unlikely as well)
Of course if I were to bet it would be for something in the 40-50% range for digital and something closer to 85% sellthrough so probably above 1M retail which is exaclty what most people here predicted.
FW retail number with
- 30% digital : 1.32M
- 40% digital : 1.125M
- 50% digital : 952k
- 60% digital : 677k
With 90% sellthrough
FW retail number with
- 30% digital : 1.411M
- 40% digital : 1.21M
- 50% digital : 1.008M
- 60% digital : 716k
With 80% sellthrough
FW retail number with
- 30% digital : 1.254M
- 40% digital : 1.075M
- 50% digital : 896k
- 60% digital : 637k
That's the the range to expect and the assumptions to start with (digital below 30% of above 60% is unlikely, sellthrough outside the 80-90% range is unlikely as well)
Of course if I were to bet it would be for something in the 40-50% range for digital and something closer to 85% sellthrough so probably above 1M retail which is exaclty what most people here predicted.
We'll see soon enough.
EDIT : Simplified math
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Did Nintendo issue PR for Europe sales?
Need to see some weeks before making this prediction? Will LTD figures be 28-32 million?
I don’t have a history to link to show my logic, but I recall that FW sales tend to equal 50%-70% of first quarter sales. The word of mouth is off the charts so I assume we will be on the lower end of it…hence 17m-20m forecast.
Another 5m over the next 2 quarters doesn’t seem aggressive either.
It would be interesting if it gets very close to 30m LTD. I can’t recall an example of ANY sequel getting close to the 1st game. Galaxy didn’t come close, Majora’s didn’t come close.
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Guess a big, active Install Base(TM) is one of the huge factors that makes the difference for having explosive launches.
And it seems like it’s showing some sorts of supply problems in some European countries I heard. Might not be widespread but I think legs will be great with the insane word of mouth and the amount of content I see on socials. I even see streamers engage with the game or social media content that do not normally do so with Nintendo games. That’s rare.
These estimates include digital
Yes, it's also been highlighted by major sites.
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10 million worldwide with 2.24 million in Japan (and 4 million in America at $70 no less!) is fucking bonkers.
Zelda games have always been acclaimed and the series has always been touted as the 1B to Mario’s 1A, so it’s amazing to see Zelda finally sell like that.
Zelda games have always been acclaimed and the series has always been touted as the 1B to Mario’s 1A, so it’s amazing to see Zelda finally sell like that.
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Is there a link to this?
Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom fastest-selling game in series, over 10m units sold worldwide in three days
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom has had an incredible debut.
www.eurogamer.net
Zelda: Tears Of The Kingdom Crosses 10 Million Sales In Just Three Days
We expected The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom to be big, but this is massive
gameluster.com
Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom breaks Nintendo records with 10m sales in 3 days | VGC
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom is the fastest-selling game in the history of the franchise according to Nintendo.
www.videogameschronicle.com
TOTK fastest selling in Europe.
Thanks for the breakdown. However, I thought these reports by Nintendo always refer to sell-through data (not shipments). Can anyone confirm?
Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom fastest-selling game in series, over 10m units sold worldwide in three days
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom has had an incredible debut.
Zelda: Tears Of The Kingdom Crosses 10 Million Sales In Just Three Days
We expected The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom to be big, but this is massive
Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom breaks Nintendo records with 10m sales in 3 days | VGC
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom is the fastest-selling game in the history of the franchise according to Nintendo.
TOTK fastest selling in Europe.
Guess Nintendo did a press release, if not public then to news outlets. @Lelouch0612 @Lite_Agent
EDIT: notably it is best Switch launch and not best Nintendo launch. If that holds up in other sources, then my guess is that it's Sun/Moon that hold that honor.
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Zelda is murdering.
Assuming an average price of 72 USD, this is a gross income of 720'000'000 USD in three days.
It is still behind GTA 5's performance over a similar time frame but the fact that both are even comparable is supreme bananas.
Assuming an average price of 72 USD, this is a gross income of 720'000'000 USD in three days.
It is still behind GTA 5's performance over a similar time frame but the fact that both are even comparable is supreme bananas.
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Yes, these PR statements always refer to sell-through.
Zelda trading punches with Pokémon. We are indeed in the best timeline!
2.24m in Japan is astonishing, only @Tbone5189 could have predicted this lol
2.24m in Japan is astonishing, only @Tbone5189 could have predicted this lol
I don't think shipments % matter since the 2.24M number is sell through.
Zelda the series growth in the Switch era is pretty remarkable to see.
It’s always been the title to get the core audience hyped. But never really had that mainstream appeal, tho had decent sales.
Now it’s got all eyes on it lol
It’s always been the title to get the core audience hyped. But never really had that mainstream appeal, tho had decent sales.
Now it’s got all eyes on it lol
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Bearing witness to a king's revival, absolutely deserved.
This makes me think that the price hike was a ploy to get people to buy other games with Zelda and vouchersNot quite, BOTW was already premium priced in Europe, and the price increase in Japan isn't as big as in the US. That, and more people going with vouchers (which still results in more money since digital = no cut for retailers + distribution + packaging), so it's not that simple a bit of math.
But yeah, still a great deal of additional money for them
That's Nintendo's integrated Hardware + Software approach at work. Strong HW sales combined with high-quality software from popular IP that have been carefully nurtured (often for decades) (+ no sales split between console and handheld platforms) =
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Don't mind me, just wanted to be in the picture of this insane result.
Huge sales for ToTK. It will easily surpass BoTW imo.
Huge sales for ToTK. It will easily surpass BoTW imo.
@Nocturnal was spot on for the Japanese launch numbers (I believe he said 2.3 including digital)
These are absolutely insane numbers. Zelda is quickly becoming a worldwide juggernaut
These are absolutely insane numbers. Zelda is quickly becoming a worldwide juggernaut
A question to the community... who paid 70 $\€ for the game? For example I bought two standard editions (60€ each, Saturn/Media Markt Germany)
May be due to lack of space for the title that Europe isn’t mentioned
Monster sales. Opening as big as peak Pokémon is no mean feat. I voted 9M in the prediction poll, I accept the egg on face.
It always was...
in our hearts
I paid $70 at Best Buy, though I had a $5 rewards coupon to soften the blow a bit!
Blown away by this performance. Very deserved.
I paid 57€ at la fnac in France.
I got 2 copies of the CE and they’re $180 cnd each (pre tax)
review code here
good catch, I was asking in order to have a proper news on my site
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60€ on Amazon due to a 10€ discount offered to me after using Amazon Photo
Incredible numbers. Obviously not everyone is paying exactly full price, but with CEs and the various Tears accessories, consoles, Amiibos etc., the revenue generated by this one game in three days must be astronomical.
Well deserved. Now for the legs to kick in.
Nintendo's next financial report releases on August 1st, correct? (April-June Period)
This may be the only sales update we get until said financial report, unless Nintendo puts out another PR statement about its sales, possibly hitting 20 mil.
Nintendo's next financial report releases on August 1st, correct? (April-June Period)
This may be the only sales update we get until said financial report, unless Nintendo puts out another PR statement about its sales, possibly hitting 20 mil.
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Preordered it at nedgame.nl (Dutch video game chain) for €60, they now sell it at a price of €65 online.
Both me and my partner paid ~130€ (for the CE).
Amazing launch and I have no doubts legs will be amazing as well,
I made a poll a month ago about what my expectations are for the Quarter:
Most people who voted expected 10-15M,
20M+ is certainly possible after such a launch and this will no doubt also impact demand for hardware in the summer for Nintendo.
I made a poll a month ago about what my expectations are for the Quarter:
Most people who voted expected 10-15M,
20M+ is certainly possible after such a launch and this will no doubt also impact demand for hardware in the summer for Nintendo.
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So between this and the Mario movie Nintendo has just casually generated around 2 billion in revenue within the past month and a half no big deal