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The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom is the biggest retail release of 2023 in the UK [208K]

Just thinking about this some more and I was suitably impressed when the thread was made with the estimated figure of 175k and now there's every chance that it might have sold as many as 218k though the real figure is probably slightly less. Even so, I just think back to the hype of games like Spider-Man in 2018 and TLOU2 in 2020 (the latter being a similar release in a few ways considering it was critically acclaimed sequel to a critically acclaimed game, released around this time of the year and released at the 'tail end' of its system's relevancy) and that a Zelda game saw them both off with a difference of several thousand copies to boot (IIRC they both fell between 190 and 200k). Just wow what a result. The hype was indeed real.

Last comment now and I'm back to actually playing the game.
 
  1. [1] FIFA 23 - 1.06M
  2. [3] RDR2 - 870K* (608K phy, assume 30% digital, no PC at launch)
  3. [4] Cyberpunk 2077 - 740K* (222K phy, assume 70% digital due to huge PC ratio)
  4. [3] COD MW2 - 679K
  5. [3] Hogwarts - 564-658K+* (131K phy, 88% over Elden Ring with digital)
  6. [2] Elden Ring - 300-350K* (73K phy, assume 70% digital due to huge PC ratio)
  7. [1] LEGO Skywalker - 300-350K* (sold close to Elden Ring , digital inc)
  8. [3] Animal Crossing - 350K* (138K phy, assume 60% digital due to pandemic)
  9. [3] Pokemon SV - 340K* (240K phy, assume 30% digital)
  10. [3] TLOU II - 330K (234K phy, assume 30% digital (EoY = 37%))
  11. [3] Zelda ToTK - 320K* (208K phy, assume 35% digital)
  12. [5] GoW: R - 290K
  13. [3] Spiderman 2018 - 250K* (190K phy, assume 20% digital)
Biggest launches in recent history (digital inc/est*)[days tracked in launch week]

Historic launch. Expect another entry on this list later this year. Crazy how games from the past few years have dominated. 100% will be 2019 and onwards. The reward for hit AAA titles gets bigger and bigger.
 
enpleinjour said:
  1. [1] FIFA 23 - 1.06M
  2. [3] RDR2 - 870K* (608K phy, assume 30% digital, no PC at launch)
  3. [4] Cyberpunk 2077 - 740K* (222K phy, assume 70% digital due to huge PC ratio)
  4. [3] COD MW2 - 679K
  5. [3] Hogwarts - 564-658K+* (131K phy, 88% over Elden Ring with digital)
  6. [2] Elden Ring - 300-350K* (73K phy, assume 70% digital due to huge PC ratio)
  7. [1] LEGO Skywalker - 300-350K* (sold close to Elden Ring , digital inc)
  8. [3] Animal Crossing - 350K* (138K phy, assume 60% digital due to pandemic)
  9. [3] Pokemon SV - 340K* (240K phy, assume 30% digital)
  10. [3] TLOU II - 330K (234K phy, assume 30% digital (EoY = 37%))
  11. [3] Zelda ToTK - 320K* (208K phy, assume 35% digital)
  12. [5] GoW: R - 290K
  13. [3] Spiderman 2018 - 250K* (190K phy, assume 20% digital)
Biggest launches in recent history (digital inc/est*)[days tracked in launch week]

Historic launch. Expect another entry on this list later this year. Crazy how games from the past few years have dominated. 100% will be 2019 and onwards. The reward for hit AAA titles gets bigger and bigger.
Click to expand...
This list seems to be starting from 2018 and very select, if you're including digital then every FIFA should be at the top of this list and there should be more CODs mixed in.

UK market definitely isn't what it used to be, COD launching at 2million first week in retail back at its peak just seems ridiculous when we're (rightly) really impressed by 208k for Zelda.
 
Pancracio17 said:
What are we assuming is the digital share, a standard 50% or so?
Click to expand...
50% is not the standard for Nintendo at all, more like 30-40%, probably closer 30% for Zelda since it is single-player-only and had some decent retail preorder promotions in the UK from what I have read.
 
Nintendo digital is a huge blindspot in general but for comparison for BOTW ltd in Japan digital is ~40%. My guess is digital's higher than you might think.
 
Gina Lestrade said:
Just thinking about this some more and I was suitably impressed when the thread was made with the estimated figure of 175k and now there's every chance that it might have sold as many as 218k though the real figure is probably slightly less. Even so, I just think back to the hype of games like Spider-Man in 2018 and TLOU2 in 2020 (the latter being a similar release in a few ways considering it was critically acclaimed sequel to a critically acclaimed game, released around this time of the year and released at the 'tail end' of its system's relevancy) and that a Zelda game saw them both off with a difference of several thousand copies to boot (IIRC they both fell between 190 and 200k). Just wow what a result. The hype was indeed real.

Last comment now and I'm back to actually playing the game.
Click to expand...

According to enpleinjour's post right under yours that's not the case. Not sure who's correct, him or you.

enpleinjour said:
10. [3] TLOU II - 330K (234K phy, assume 30% digital (EoY = 37%))
Click to expand...
 
Lelouch0612 said:
Vouchers are more attractive in Japan than they are in Europe because of how games are priced there, and because retail doesn't compete to lower prices aggressively.
Click to expand...
Vouchers are indeed an incredible value in Japan but I'm not sure we can say for sure it leads to higher digital with Japan's robust used market. Japan's sort of unique in that it's the one market where digital hasn't functionally eliminated the second hand market.
 
fiendcode said:
Vouchers are indeed an incredible value in Japan but I'm not sure we can say for sure it leads to higher digital with Japan's robust used market. Japan's sort of unique in that it's the one market where digital hasn't functionally eliminated the second hand market.
Click to expand...
While vouchers in Japan have not eliminated the second hand market, we have seen it in Japan again and again that games with vouchers have significantly higher digital percentages, especially for higher priced games.
 
Pooroomoo said:
While vouchers in Japan have not eliminated the second hand market, we have seen it in Japan again and again that games with vouchers have significantly higher digital percentages.
Click to expand...
Sorry, I meant higher digital in regards to other markets. I don't expect voucher games to necessarily manage higher ratios in Japan than they do the UK, USA or Eurozone.
 
crazy Wii Fit with its expensive price tag and being a new IP manage to top the charts right out the gate, the epitome of blue-ocean sw, where the non-gamer demographic goes crazy with hype, social media and WOM
 
Lelouch0612 said:
Confirmation:

Click to expand...

So looks like they don't round to 5k and the two big ones we got so far just happened to end in a 5.

~£55 average price is interesting, I wonder how many collectors editions were sold because that's still £5 below the shop price.
 
m051293 said:
Click to expand...



This is retail only, right?
Considering the evolution of the market (Nintendo's one too) toward digital, especially compared to Wii Fit (that obviously was a 100% retail-only game, due to the peripheral, apart from being on the Wii) I wonder if the Switch actually have the biggest launch of all time for Nintendo in that market (both revenue-based and units-based)
 
Aostia82 said:
This is retail only, right?
Considering the evolution of the market (Nintendo's one too) toward digital, especially compared to Wii Fit (that obviously was a 100% retail-only game, due to the peripheral, apart from being on the Wii) I wonder if the Switch actually have the biggest launch of all time for Nintendo in that market (both revenue-based and units-based)
Click to expand...
In order for The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom to outsell in revenue the launch of Wii Fit it would need to have sold a bit above 80.000 digital copies.
 
"It's likely Hogwarts had a bigger digital launch than Zelda, but we won't know as Nintendo doesn't share digital data."

Does this really hold true? Was digital so high for HL that Zelda couldn't possibly have matched the digital percentage? I do wish he wouldn't make these sorts of statements - it just adds to comments we've made about his reporting in the past.
 
jesusraz said:
"It's likely Hogwarts had a bigger digital launch than Zelda, but we won't know as Nintendo doesn't share digital data."

Does this really hold true? Was digital so high for HL that Zelda couldn't possibly have matched the digital percentage? I do wish he wouldn't make these sorts of statements - it just adds to comments we've made about his reporting in the past.
Click to expand...
Yes, Hogwarts digital was absolutely massive. It was about 73% digital, roughly 365k digital sales, for total launch sales of ~500k. TOTK would need over 58% digital share to beat that total, or a 63%+ digital share to have matched HL digital sales alone.
 
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jesusraz said:
"It's likely Hogwarts had a bigger digital launch than Zelda, but we won't know as Nintendo doesn't share digital data."

Does this really hold true? Was digital so high for HL that Zelda couldn't possibly have matched the digital percentage? I do wish he wouldn't make these sorts of statements - it just adds to comments we've made about his reporting in the past.
Click to expand...

With how high digital were for Hogwarts he is almost certainly correct that TotK didn't have higher digital sales. His comments are fine. Even with vouchers, Switch games are not doing 70% digital in the UK.
 
I guess we're really never going to know for sure since Nintendo doesn't provide regional trackers with digital data, but I'm perplexed how low the general sentiments are about their digital shares. Aren't they quoting themselves at like 48% digital for global software (excluding digital-only titles) this past FY (up from 43% in previous FY)?

Is the thought that catalog sales are running at like 60-70% digital and new titles 25-35%? Or am I missing something on how the 48% is calculated (non-game sale revenue?).
 
m051293 said:
I guess we're really never going to know for sure since Nintendo doesn't provide regional trackers with digital data, but I'm perplexed how low the general sentiments are about their digital shares. Aren't they quoting themselves at like 48% digital for global software (excluding digital-only titles) this past FY (up from 43% in previous FY)?

Is the thought that catalog sales are running at like 60-70% digital and new titles 25-35%? Or am I missing something on how the 48% is calculated (non-game sale revenue?).
Click to expand...
Yeah, I don't see how a over 27.8% digital share in the UK, a very digital heavy market, is not guaranteed but just manageable.
 
m051293 said:
I guess we're really never going to know for sure since Nintendo doesn't provide regional trackers with digital data, but I'm perplexed how low the general sentiments are about their digital shares. Aren't they quoting themselves at like 48% digital for global software (excluding digital-only titles) this past FY (up from 43% in previous FY)?

Is the thought that catalog sales are running at like 60-70% digital and new titles 25-35%? Or am I missing something on how the 48% is calculated (non-game sale revenue?).
Click to expand...
I think people are basing it on digital shares that we know from Japan and thinking UK must be lower due to less prominence of vouchers, unless I'm mistaken.

UK is a very digital heavy market for PS and Xbox now though, so wouldn't surprise me if it's becoming the same for Nintendo.
 
Xevross said:
I think people are basing it on digital shares that we know from Japan and thinking UK must be lower due to less prominence of vouchers, unless I'm mistaken.

UK is a very digital heavy market for PS and Xbox now though, so wouldn't surprise me if it's becoming the same for Nintendo.
Click to expand...

This is actually counter-intuitive to me haha.

  • We know global is mid-high 40s.
  • We know Japan is a huge chunk of total tallies, but with low digital
  • We know UK is already digital heavy

Stands to reason that ex-Japan needs to be much higher digital in order to get to Nintendo's quoted global %s.
 
jesusraz said:
"It's likely Hogwarts had a bigger digital launch than Zelda, but we won't know as Nintendo doesn't share digital data."

Does this really hold true? Was digital so high for HL that Zelda couldn't possibly have matched the digital percentage? I do wish he wouldn't make these sorts of statements - it just adds to comments we've made about his reporting in the past.
Click to expand...
Steam being 100% digital will make a key difference for multiplats. Dring's not wrong on Pigwarts but he does tend to undercount Nintendo digital.
 
fiendcode said:
Steam being 100% digital will make a key difference for multiplats. Dring's not wrong on Pigwarts but he does tend to undercount Nintendo digital.
Click to expand...
That and Xbox Series S (and to a lesser extent PS5 digital) existing and also being 100% digital.
 
enpleinjour said:
  1. [1] FIFA 23 - 1.06M
  2. [3] RDR2 - 870K* (608K phy, assume 30% digital, no PC at launch)
  3. [4] Cyberpunk 2077 - 740K* (222K phy, assume 70% digital due to huge PC ratio)
  4. [3] COD MW2 - 679K
  5. [3] Hogwarts - 564-658K+* (131K phy, 88% over Elden Ring with digital)
  6. [2] Elden Ring - 300-350K* (73K phy, assume 70% digital due to huge PC ratio)
  7. [1] LEGO Skywalker - 300-350K* (sold close to Elden Ring , digital inc)
  8. [3] Animal Crossing - 350K* (138K phy, assume 60% digital due to pandemic)
  9. [3] Pokemon SV - 340K* (240K phy, assume 30% digital)
  10. [3] TLOU II - 330K (234K phy, assume 30% digital (EoY = 37%))
  11. [3] Zelda ToTK - 320K* (208K phy, assume 35% digital)
  12. [5] GoW: R - 290K
  13. [3] Spiderman 2018 - 250K* (190K phy, assume 20% digital)
Biggest launches in recent history (digital inc/est*)[days tracked in launch week]

Historic launch. Expect another entry on this list later this year. Crazy how games from the past few years have dominated. 100% will be 2019 and onwards. The reward for hit AAA titles gets bigger and bigger.
Click to expand...

Updated correct TLOU 2, and Nintendo digital estimates as 20% per my global calculations of 20%:
  1. [1] FIFA 23 - 1.06M
  2. [3] RDR2 - 870K* (608K phy, assume 30% digital, no PC at launch)
  3. [4] Cyberpunk 2077 - 740K* (222K phy, assume 70% digital due to huge PC ratio)
  4. [3] COD MW2 - 679K
  5. [3] Hogwarts - 564-658K+* (131K phy, 88% over Elden Ring with digital)
  6. [2] Elden Ring - 300-350K* (73K phy, assume 70% digital due to huge PC ratio)
  7. [1] LEGO Skywalker - 300-350K* (sold close to Elden Ring , digital inc)
  8. [3] Pokemon SV - 300K* (240K phy, assume 20% digital)
  9. [5] GoW: R - 290K
  10. [3] TLOU II - 277K (194K phy, assume 30% digital (EoY = 37%))
  11. [3] Animal Crossing - 276K* (138K phy, assume 50% digital due to pandemic)
  12. [3] Zelda ToTK - 260K* (208K phy, assume 20% digital)
  13. [3] Spiderman 2018 - 250K* (190K phy, assume 20% digital)

Xevross said:
This list seems to be starting from 2018 and very select, if you're including digital then every FIFA should be at the top of this list and there should be more CODs mixed in.

UK market definitely isn't what it used to be, COD launching at 2million first week in retail back at its peak just seems ridiculous when we're (rightly) really impressed by 208k for Zelda.
Click to expand...

You're right, misread my list as the all time one instead of recent. I've kept it as per franchise, as you say, per title would be full of FIFA/COD etc.

I'm curious though, what other big launches do you have historically? I see:
  • BF3 - 404K
  • SW BF - 335K
  • Halo Reach - 390K
  • Halo 3 - 370K
  • Halo 4 - 332K
  • Gears 3 - 323K
  • Skyrim - 310K
  • Fallout 4 - 482K
  • Destiny - 417K
  • GTA5 - 2250K
  • COD BO - 1800K
Himura Kenshin said:
According to enpleinjour's post right under yours that's not the case. Not sure who's correct, him or you.
Click to expand...

194K is the right one.
 
enpleinjour said:
Nintendo digital estimates as 20% per my global calculations of 20%
Click to expand...
Are you saying Nintendo has a 20% global digital ratio? If that is what you mean, then third party retail release digital would be close to 60% for Nintendo’s stated digital ratio to hold (38.5% FY/3 22, no digital only, and just roughly doing 50/50 1st and 3rd).
 
MegaXZero said:
Are you saying Nintendo has a 20% global digital ratio? If that is what you mean, then third party retail release digital would be close to 60% for Nintendo’s stated digital ratio to hold (38.5% FY/3 22, no digital only, and just roughly doing 50/50 1st and 3rd).
Click to expand...

Are you sure that's not including digital only?
 
enpleinjour said:
Are you sure that's not including digital only?
Click to expand...
Yes, Nintendo does not include digital only in software unit totals, only in revenue. The chart they gave also used “downloadable version” which is how they differentiate between digital releases with retail skus and “download-only” games.
 
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enpleinjour said:
Updated correct TLOU 2, and Nintendo digital estimates as 20% per my global calculations of 20%:
  1. [1] FIFA 23 - 1.06M
  2. [3] RDR2 - 870K* (608K phy, assume 30% digital, no PC at launch)
  3. [4] Cyberpunk 2077 - 740K* (222K phy, assume 70% digital due to huge PC ratio)
  4. [3] COD MW2 - 679K
  5. [3] Hogwarts - 564-658K+* (131K phy, 88% over Elden Ring with digital)
  6. [2] Elden Ring - 300-350K* (73K phy, assume 70% digital due to huge PC ratio)
  7. [1] LEGO Skywalker - 300-350K* (sold close to Elden Ring , digital inc)
  8. [3] Pokemon SV - 300K* (240K phy, assume 20% digital)
  9. [5] GoW: R - 290K
  10. [3] TLOU II - 277K (194K phy, assume 30% digital (EoY = 37%))
  11. [3] Animal Crossing - 276K* (138K phy, assume 50% digital due to pandemic)
  12. [3] Zelda ToTK - 260K* (208K phy, assume 20% digital)
  13. [3] Spiderman 2018 - 250K* (190K phy, assume 20% digital)



You're right, misread my list as the all time one instead of recent. I've kept it as per franchise, as you say, per title would be full of FIFA/COD etc.

I'm curious though, what other big launches do you have historically? I see:
  • BF3 - 404K
  • SW BF - 335K
  • Halo Reach - 390K
  • Halo 3 - 370K
  • Halo 4 - 332K
  • Gears 3 - 323K
  • Skyrim - 310K
  • Fallout 4 - 482K
  • Destiny - 417K
  • GTA5 - 2250K
  • COD BO - 1800K


194K is the right one.
Click to expand...
I don't tend to keep track of these things (I should probably start doing that), but for other mega launches I can think of there was RDR2 608k as you listed above, COD had a few launches at that massive size, FIFA peak physical launch seems to be 1108k with FIFA 17 and plenty of other years above or close to 1mil.

I was mainly thinking what you listed though that there must be loads of games going back that would appear on the list you'd made with launches over 250k, so you found a lot of them. Another couple in that range off the top of my head is Pokémon sun/moon (290k Phys) and The Division (277k Phys).
 
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Xevross said:
Yes, Hogwarts digital was absolutely massive. It was about 73% digital, roughly 365k digital sales, for total launch sales of ~500k. TOTK would need over 58% digital share to beat that total, or a 63%+ digital share to have matched HL digital sales alone.
Click to expand...
Gotdatmoney said:
With how high digital were for Hogwarts he is almost certainly correct that TotK didn't have higher digital sales. His comments are fine. Even with vouchers, Switch games are not doing 70% digital in the UK.
Click to expand...
fiendcode said:
Steam being 100% digital will make a key difference for multiplats. Dring's not wrong on Hogwarts but he does tend to undercount Nintendo digital.
Click to expand...
Fair points, and thanks for the clarification. It's just when reporting data, to keep things factual, it's best to avoid saying, "X was significantly bigger... well, at least we presume so because we don't actually know Y". I'm sure you know what I mean.

Anyway, though, not to detract from the main topic further - it's quite the feat what Nintendo has achieved in changing the mindset of people towards Zelda. It'll be interesting to see how catalogue releases are affected, if at all. We've seen Skyward Sword pop onto the Top 40 here in the UK a few times over the past year, but Link's Awakening never really resurfaced.

I'm wondering what the plan is for Wind Waker and Twilight Princess now, since I have no doubt the ports/upgrades exist - it's just more a case of whether releasing them later this year would help maintain brand awareness or take some of the wind out of TotK's sails a bit, confusing the new fan base with the different styles. At least with SS, Aonouma-san stressed how it was a precursor to BotW and was a great way to see how ideas and mechanics introduced in SS played a part in BotW.
 
Thinking about it more I believe the digital share for this game will be quite high, possibly Nintendo's highest yet.

For a game as hyped as this people will want to order digitally so they can preload and play as early as possible, avoid any potential delivery issues.

Also with the price rise for this game the voucher is a remarkably good deal (second game would only be £24), with people being more clued in on things like this nowadays I wouldn't be surprised if there was a big increase in voucher usage for this game in the UK.
 
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