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The analysis to find the Switch 2 release date

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Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

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Lelouch0612 has published a news story:

The analysis to find the Switch 2 release date.

Nintendo-Switch-OLED-%C3%A9dition-collector-Zelda-Tears-of-the-Kingdom-img3.jpg

(and this particular edition might give a hint)​


So, one of the burning question in the gaming world over the past years has been about the Nintendo Switch successor, and when it will release. Honestly I don't know either, but I believe we can deduce from Nintendo's strategy over the past years, which...
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Read the full story here...
 
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My main concern is that it comes out soon enough that a Visions of Mana port is viable.

If we're legit looking at a qt3-4 2025 launch, I doubt SE will port it and i might as well get a series s to play it on for the cheapest avenue.
 
Uniomni said:
My main concern is that it comes out soon enough that a Visions of Mana port is viable.

If we're legit looking at a qt3-4 2025 launch, I doubt SE will port it and i might as well get a series s to play it on for the cheapest avenue.
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I don’t think netease, square enix or Nintendo care

The studio got essentially gutted the exact moment it released,

We’re lucky it came out and wasn’t just scrapped last minute tbh
 
It’s also important to note that, unlike with Switch and a few others that were released to meet the fiscal year, once you look outside of that timeline, Nintendo’s hardware has historically launched in Japan just ahead of Golden Week, Obon or the late-year holiday season. And Nintendo realizes they don’t have to launch in the late holiday period, so they could launch hardware to meet these earlier Japanese holiday periods and use the opportunity to build a software library for its first Christmas shopping season in the West.
 
Djehuty said:
I don’t think netease, square enix or Nintendo care

The studio got essentially gutted the exact moment it released,

We’re lucky it came out and wasn’t just scrapped last minute tbh
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It's not really a Netease thing at all, moreso a thing between Se and Nintendo.

I just rather it land on hardware I plan on buying.
 
My prediction is April 24th 2025. Launching with a big 3D Mario game, an EPD4 casual game and one third-party-exclusive game. This would be a very good launch game combo
 
I'm shooting for 06/05/25. Near end of Q1.

Famicom's Anniversary would be a fun symbolic date (07/15/25) but it makes little sense for US or EU.
 
So production and reveal must be close if that is the ballpark they will launch the Switch 2. Actually I think they will need to produce a lot of units fast because I think the initial hype will be huge and people will want to transition asap.
 
Lelouch0612 said:
Question is whether they'll launch it on the Thursday before Golden Week or the Tuesday of Golden Week ?

They've moved from their usual spot in the past to accomodate Golden Week (ZOLED on a Saturday for instance).
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Tuesday is the 29th and it's Showa Day so I'd exclude it.

Golden Week

About the Golden Week in Japan.
www.japan-guide.com www.japan-guide.com

If it's coming around Golden Week the two possible dates are 2025-04-24 (before GW, the "hardware slot") or 2025-05-15 (after GW, the "software slot").

Nintendo will now release it on 2025-05-08
 
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Joseki said:
Tuesday is the 29th and it's Showa Day so I'd exclude it.

Golden Week

About the Golden Week in Japan.
www.japan-guide.com www.japan-guide.com

If it's coming around Golden Week the two possible dates are 2025-04-24 (before GW, the "hardware slot") or 2025-05-15 (after GW, the "software slot").

Nintendo will now release it on 2025-05-08
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ZOLED launched on Showa Day, which is my point.
 
A release near golden week would make a lot of sense, that’s the general month I was thinking about regardless of the holiday
 
I also agree that an End-of-April-release would be fine for Switch 2. But I doubt that Nintendo would release a new big plattform so close after the ending of the previous fiscal year. I think they never missed a fiscal year so close with a release of a new plattform. They either released their new system at the end of a fiscal year (see release dates of NDS, 3DS and Switch or holiday release dates like Wii and WiiU) or somewhen in the middle of the new fiscal year (like Gamecube in September 2021 in Japan). Missing their fiscal years end by three weeks seems very unlikely for Nintendo and also for Sony and MS in general. They never released a new plattform so early in a new fiscal year timespan.
 
Tialo said:
I also agree that an End-of-April-release would be fine for Switch 2. But I doubt that Nintendo would release a new big plattform so close after the ending of the previous fiscal year. I think they never missed a fiscal year so close with a release of a new plattform. They either released their new system at the end of a fiscal year (see release dates of NDS, 3DS and Switch or holiday release dates like Wii and WiiU) or somewhen in the middle of the new fiscal year (like Gamecube in September 2021 in Japan). Missing their fiscal years end by three weeks seems very unlikely for Nintendo and also for Sony and MS in general. They never released a new plattform so early in a new fiscal year timespan.
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Does it really matter whether it is early in the fiscal year or late? I don't see why it matters tbh.
 


With industry whispers around ‘something’ Switch 2-related happening this month. I thought I’d remind everyone of the official list of the greatest games consoles of all time.1. Nintendo Switch2. Everyone else
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If the console is revealed this month, then it will increase the likelihood of an April release by a good amount.
 
Tialo said:
I also agree that an End-of-April-release would be fine for Switch 2. But I doubt that Nintendo would release a new big plattform so close after the ending of the previous fiscal year. I think they never missed a fiscal year so close with a release of a new plattform. They either released their new system at the end of a fiscal year (see release dates of NDS, 3DS and Switch or holiday release dates like Wii and WiiU) or somewhen in the middle of the new fiscal year (like Gamecube in September 2021 in Japan). Missing their fiscal years end by three weeks seems very unlikely for Nintendo and also for Sony and MS in general. They never released a new plattform so early in a new fiscal year timespan.
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When they released the Switch at the end of the fiscal year it seemed like it was meant to prop up their financials at the time since they weren’t doing so well, but the Switch is still selling well now so they can just release the Switch 2 at the beginning of a new fiscal year for a clean break. I think it makes sense.
 
Lelouch0612 said:




If the console is revealed this month, then it will increase the likelihood of an April release by a good amount.
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I don't get his quote lol
what does it mean? surely isn't sales-related, surely not in the UK (where it probably won't even become in terms of LT sales) nor at a ww level: not yet
 
Aostia82 said:
I don't get his quote lol
what does it mean? surely isn't sales-related, surely not in the UK (where it probably won't even become in terms of LT sales) nor at a ww level: not yet
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In the second part of his tweet, Chris just shares something he did numerous times in the past. For him, the Switch is just the best console ever.

It is not about sales at all.
 
Just some harmless fanboying* from Dring there, nothing more to read into 🤭

(* that I much prefer to "yeah, no more games after ToTK" non-sense if you ask me).

Honestly, not sure about a 2024 reveal, but I guess we'll seen soon enough if there's anything about those ramblings.
 
Lelouch0612 said:




If the console is revealed this month, then it will increase the likelihood of an April release by a good amount.
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Heck, I think it opens March back up, to be quite frank.
Just gonna repost some thoughts here from the other thread...
Terrell said:
But naturally, an announcement is due this FY, and if it's launching in September 2025, that'd be WAY too early, but there's nothing that inherently says they can't announce well ahead of mass production, but it'd be uncharacteristic of them, given they've been progressively shortening the reveal-to-launch window for decades (usually coinciding with changes in the company president, I might add). If it's happening ahead of mass production as we expect based on the last hardware launch they did (and all its subsequent different models), it's because the timing of when production starts would be a bad time for a reveal, like December, and they'd want to do it ahead of holiday shopping season.

All that said, personal bet on reveal now is 3 possible dates: late October (for a launch in March of this FY around Switch's 8 year anniversary), early November ahead of Black Friday (for a late April launch ahead of Golden Week) or on Switch's 8th anniversary (for a July launch ahead of Obon).
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So if they're announcing in September, they're getting 1-2 months ahead of when full production would be expected to start (assuming March or April release), likely to let 3rd-parties (finally) discuss software at TGS since it'd be the last big opportunity to do so far enough out from launch (SXSW and GDC would be too close to the hardware launch to showcase what's coming).
 
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Think it might be Sept 18-26 or in early Oct. (avoid Tokyo Game Show).
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I think the next week is also possible.

Terrell said:
Heck, I think it opens March back up, to be quite frank.
Just gonna repost some thoughts here from the other thread...

So if they're announcing in September, they're getting 1-2 months ahead of when full production would be expected to start (assuming March or April release), likely to let 3rd-parties (finally) discuss software at TGS since it'd be the last big opportunity to do so far enough out from launch (SXSW and GDC would be too close to the hardware launch to showcase what's coming).
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I would expect a longer time between the start of mass production and the launch. Switch only had 2m units ready for Early March, I would expect double this amount for the Switch 2.
 
at the end of the day, maybe we were overthinking too much about the Switch2 reveal, presentation and launch

Switch 1

- October 20th, 2016: teaser
- January 14th, 2017: presentation
- March 3rd, 2017: launch

Yes, we could see the Switch 2 moving/shuffling few weeks, even "dropping" into the next FY (as suggested by rumors or even Nintendo own official PR/statement so far) but that would be THAT different from a consumer and market perspective (the main difference would be for Nintendo own FY, but that's another story)



Switch 2

- October 3rd, 2024: teaser
- January 16th, 2025: presentation
- April 29th, 2025: launch
 
Seems to be some split withing gaming journalism, with some thinking a Switch 2 reveal is imminent while Andy Robinson still thinks Switch 2 is further out from reveal.

 
Danny said:
Seems to be some split withing gaming journalism, with some thinking a Switch 2 reveal is imminent while Andy Robinson still thinks Switch 2 is further out from reveal.

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Well, nobody should bet on news happenings, no matter what. However, if multiple people have heard this then it's making the reveal this month that much more likely.
 
Meelow said:
Well, nobody should bet on news happenings, no matter what. However, if multiple people have heard this then it's making the reveal this month that much more likely.
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And the fact that all this talk come around 10 days after Gamescom makes it likely it is coming from stuff they heard at gamescom, given that it was the same last year about the Switch 2 demo leak from gamescom.
 
Lelouch0612 said:
I would expect a longer time between the start of mass production and the launch. Switch only had 2m units ready for Early March, I would expect double this amount for the Switch 2.
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Whatever they produce pre-launch will be entirely based on a full-year forecast (launch qty is usually 4 months of building up whatever they plan to produce monthly to meet out-of-launch demand and slowly shore up holiday inventories), which is how Switch only ended up with 2m units ready for launch, because their forecasting was WAY too low. So long as Nintendo has forecasted appropriately, 3-4 months is all that's necessary to accumulate launch inventories of 4mil if they want them to be (which would work out to roughly 1mil produced per month if working with a 15mil full-year forecast and a full 4 months of production ahead of launch), so if they're launching in April, full production wouldn't have to start until late November at the earliest. If you expect a higher full year forecast for hardware retail shipments, you'd simply be looking at a higher launch quantity.
 
So if some of us truly believe in this September/ October Switch 2 reveal, how does this affect Switch 1 and it's fiscal year goal? Didn't Nintendo themselves mention the announcement possibly affecting their fiscal year goal in a negative way when it hapoens? I'm with Andy, definitely not betting my house on it. When were the new bundles announced last year? Maybe that's what Nintendo is gearing up for this month or next.
 
Furukawa said that this year is more about Drake preparation than hitting numbers. Their goal was probably based on trends and what they had, but they're not going to let not hitting it weigh so heavily
 
Phenom08 said:
So if some of us truly believe in this September/ October Switch 2 reveal, how does this affect Switch 1 and it's fiscal year goal? Didn't Nintendo themselves mention the announcement possibly affecting their fiscal year goal in a negative way when it hapoens? I'm with Andy, definitely not betting my house on it. When were the new bundles announced last year? Maybe that's what Nintendo is gearing up for this month or next.
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The bundles were announced in mid-October

www.perfectly-nintendo.com

Nintendo Switch: new bundles announced for North America, Europe, and Japan

Nintendo has just announced no less than four different Nintendo Switch and Nintendo Switch Lite bundles for the holiday season!
www.perfectly-nintendo.com
 
Lelouch0612 said:
The bundles were announced in mid-October

www.perfectly-nintendo.com

Nintendo Switch: new bundles announced for North America, Europe, and Japan

Nintendo has just announced no less than four different Nintendo Switch and Nintendo Switch Lite bundles for the holiday season!
www.perfectly-nintendo.com
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It wasn't 05/09 with Release date October 6th 2023 in North America?

nintendoeverything.com

Nintendo to release new Switch bundles in October

Nintendo Switch reveals new bundles for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Animal Crossing: New Horizons, and Nintendo Switch Sports.
nintendoeverything.com nintendoeverything.com
 
ILikeFeet said:
Screenshot-20240904-063439-Drive.jpg


here's the excerpt, came from the Q&A following the announcement
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Really aligns with the thought that the launch of the new system will fall just outside the fiscal year.

Edit:
I think Switch 2 may launch in the Spring/Summer for a couple of reasons:
1. Switch is a hybrid and people will want to take it with them on their summer plans.
2. You have to launch the system before the holiday season so there are enough systems for the holiday.
 
ILikeFeet said:
Screenshot-20240904-063439-Drive.jpg


here's the excerpt, came from the Q&A following the announcement
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Yeah I do remember that and now I do understand your train of thought better after all these months. I think you will be right on a possible 1st half launch (I'm thinking April/May but I think you will be wrong about Nintendo pushing for that fiscal year goal. That exerpts literally says maintaining Switch momentum is also key this fiscal year and even mentions for them not to be overly focused on profits. That to me reads like there could be some internal concern about sacrificing profits for the future. I think that might just point to a price cut/more aggressive bundling this fiscal year to maintain Switch momentum and preparation to introduce Switch 2 alongside it. What do you think of that?
 
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Phenom08 said:
Yeah I do remember that and now I do understand your train of thought better after all these months. I think you will be right on a possible 1st half launch (I'm thinking April/May but I think you will be wrong about Nintendo pushing for that fiscal year goal. That exerpts literally says maintaining Switch momentum is also key this fiscal year and even mentions for them not to be overly focused on profits. That to me reads like there could be some internal concern about sacrificing profits for the future. I think that might just point to a price cut/more aggressive bundling this fiscal year to maintain Switch momentum and preparation to introduce Switch 2 alongside it. What do you think of that?
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I think that means by cutting Switch off at the knees even though it can continue to be profitable in the current market.
 
price cut is something I can definitely see on the cards. it would also explain why there's no Black Friday game, they could be prepping a price cut or a discount.

with the way they're going through their games, starting marketing for even Mario and Luigi, they might want to clear the room for the Drake announcement. but the Zelda Switch Lite does put a hold on the announcement if there is some form of a price cut/discount coming. don't want to undercut that, hence my thoughts of an October reveal.

Furukawa talked about the considerations of the japanese market a bit, given what they're going though, the only reasonable option is to just have a fuckload of systems and work with retailers to prevent exports and multi-user purchases. pushing the release date back to April/May gives them more breathing room for amassing units and not incur higher shipping costs
 
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