Switch 2/Pro/Deluxe reveal-to-release speculation.
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there's VR mario kart but for arcades. maybe MK10/Smash Kart could have a VR mode
That DS to 3DS transition would've been much better if Nintendo had waited to both announce and launch 3DS. It's not like they were starved for new games. The DS was getting Pokemon BW after all a 15 million seller (lowest for a Pokemon generation starter though maybe it would've been higher if it wasn't perceived as being released on older hardware and if we had the worldwide launches we have today).
Something like this would've been better for that transition:
With the above, the DS probably would've managed to outsell the PS2 and the 3DS probably would've outsold the GBA and maybe even reached 90 million. Still a far drop from the DS but not bad considering the mobile competition, and this doesn't do much to mitigate the problems Nintendo would still encounter.
The moral of this is that Nintendo shouldn't release a successor to their hot system too early and I hope they learn that less with the Switch 2.
Something like this would've been better for that transition:
- Announce 3DS at E3 2011 or even around April 2011
- Release either in September 2011 or November 2011 (preferably the former because they had enough games to keep momentum going)
- If a September 2011 launch, it could have everything that was actually released for the system from March 2011 to September 2011 in reality (nintendogs, Steel Diver, OoT 3D, Star Fox 64 3D, etc.) EDIT: Some of these games could've even been pushed to 2012 if needed, like maybe Star Fox.
- You would then have 3D Land in November followed by Mario Kart in December and then the regular games after that like KI: U in 2012.
- It would also make the wait for other games like ACNL more bearable because we would only have to wait about 2 years while having great games right out the gate.
- Also, I'd have the system priced at $200. They found success with $170, so I think $200 with great games would still be successful.
With the above, the DS probably would've managed to outsell the PS2 and the 3DS probably would've outsold the GBA and maybe even reached 90 million. Still a far drop from the DS but not bad considering the mobile competition, and this doesn't do much to mitigate the problems Nintendo would still encounter.
The moral of this is that Nintendo shouldn't release a successor to their hot system too early and I hope they learn that less with the Switch 2.
Did you forget what led to Nintendo's first ever losses in decades?
It wasn't the Wii U. It was rescuing the 3Ds from it's horrid launch via the emergency price cut and giving away NES games (all cost money)
They gave away GBA games as well. No?
Mario Kart Live is a $100 remote-control toy car, which is both expensive and niche.
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You think other AR games would do better?
IDK since I'd have to see the actual AR implementation, but having the camera be on the console itself rather than attached to a $100 remote-control toy car would definitely help.
tour is the mobile game. you're thinking of home circuit
I don't mind if Nintendo does AR or VR or anything crazy like that, so long as it is something separate and optional, like how PS VR & PS VR2 are optional to PS4 & PS5 respectively. Hopefully the successor is not tied to a crazy gimmick. That honestly didn't do them any favors for 3DS & Wii U. Only worked for a few years on Wii.
Yep totally agree.
3DS was completely unnecessarily rushed, the price stung mostly because of the lack of software. AND $200 would have meant no need for a massive price cut and all the bad PR that entailed.
Pricing it as much as the Wii at launch was dumb. Not that portable devices should be inherently cheaper than home consoles but the technology and functionality have to be compelling enough.
For all the Street Pass, 3D, motion sensing etc what you essential got was a prettied up PSP. Vita was basically a PS2 Pro. That's before you talk about trading normal gamepad inputs for "innovation".
Even now Switch doesn't offer everything the other home consoles offered since 2005/2006. Things like messaging and analog triggers are still absent, as well as some multimedia functionality and popular apps. But it's main gimmick, versatility, is compelling enough. HD graphics and a nearly full suite of mainstream inputs in a portable for the first time make it's essentially being a Xbox 360 X irrelevant.
For all the Street Pass, 3D, motion sensing etc what you essential got was a prettied up PSP. Vita was basically a PS2 Pro. That's before you talk about trading normal gamepad inputs for "innovation".
Even now Switch doesn't offer everything the other home consoles offered since 2005/2006. Things like messaging and analog triggers are still absent, as well as some multimedia functionality and popular apps. But it's main gimmick, versatility, is compelling enough. HD graphics and a nearly full suite of mainstream inputs in a portable for the first time make it's essentially being a Xbox 360 X irrelevant.
Mario Kart Live uses the camera on the toy car to stream to the console. Putting a camera on the Switch wouldn't allow you to race around an AR world. As the toy car drives around your home, it shows your home in AR.
That's right. A camera on the Switch itself wouldn'tvallow gor much more than what the 3DS already did with AR.
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For a very brief moment in time, never to be seen again....
yes, he received some ports and games that failed, the 3ds was dead, if you want I'll list all those failures
Can't say I'm interested in a list of games you deem as failures, especially when the game I named (Pokemon) certainly didn't fail. I'm not sure what you are even talking about in your 3DS to Switch transition doesn't exist because it was "dead"? How many consoles aren't "dead" when the platform holder is moving on to the next?
In 2017 the 3DS (apparently a he now lol) had four million sellers release, one multi million seller release in December 2016 and other games sell over 1M. Software sales in that fiscal year April 2017-March 2018 had dropped below 50M but it was still far from dead.
Hardware sales were barely down from 2016.
What games sold well at the end of the 3DS's life? mario party, pikmin, metroid, yoshi, ever oasis, mario & luigi all failed, and that's the first part, not mentioning the third, now tell me which are the 1 million sellers
lol
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I would like to add that those games that did fail or sold less than their potential on 3DS did so because of lack of BC between Switch and 3DS, and the gap between 3DS having a smallish unattractive SD screen vs the attractive HD visuals of the Switch. While the potential tech jump from Switch to Switch 2 is expected to be very big, visually games for Switch can still look great or at least good enough and so there will be no reason for Switch 2 owners OR people waiting to buy one to stop buying Switch games, especially with BC.
that's like saying people bought gba games for nds, people buy a new platform to play that platform's games, no one bought wii u to play wii
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Switch-> Switch 2 is quite a different proposition than your above examples. What I am saying is that once a Switch 2 is out, regardless of what stage people will be in (own a Switch 2, ordered a Switch 2, or considering one) most people will have no problem buying a game that runs on both Switch and Switch 2, as long as its Switch performance is good enough - so as long as there is BC, the fate of certain 3DS games that could have sold better but came out after Switch released (Hey Pikmin, Ever Oasis, Samus Returns, Etrian Odyssey Nexus, FE Echoes, MH Stories, and others) would not be repeated.
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Why don't you just look them up yourself?
Pokémon Ultra Sun/Ultra Moon, Monster Hunter XX, Dragon Quest XI and Miitopia. Super Mario Maker for 3DS released in December of 2016 and almost outsold the Wii U version that released way earlier.
Below 1M sales doesn't automatically mean failure and there are various reasons for why these games sold the way they did.
- Hey Pikmin is low quality and to different from the mainline games.
- Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga + Bowser's Minions is a remake and the franchise was already on a decline with Paper Jam having barely sold over 1M.
- Mario Party: The Top 100 was received very poorly and isn't even a proper Mario Party game.
- Metroid: Samus Returns is a remake and came right after the disastrous Federation Force. Metroid was at it's all time low point. And yet Mercury Steam got the green light for Metroid Dread.
- Poochy & Yoshi's Woolly World was not a new game but Wii U port and unlike Mario Maker wasn't a novel idea and Yoshi is less popular then mainline Mario games.
- Ever Oasis was a new IP. Miitopia was too but that one features Miis.
- Then there's also Fire Emblem Echoes which also sold below 1M. That is also a remake and combining the 3DS being old with less selling power left the Fire Emblem Franchise just wasn't at a point yet where even non mainline games can sell over 1M that easily. Warriors was also on Switch and only reached 1M six months later in 2018.
- (Using the US names here for convenience) Style Savvy: Styling Star also sold below 1M. And yet they began working on another 3DS entry. Style Savvy: Fashion Forward before that hadn't reached 1M at that point yet, only years later, so below 1M was clearly no problem for them.
- Mario Sports Superstars was poorly received and not even Mario Golf sold over 1M on 3DS, so this one definitely wouldn't even if it had released earlier.
The 3DS was late in it's life and obviously with the Switch having released had less and less selling power. But it wasn't outright dead yet. A dead console doesn't sell over 6M in a year and around 40M software.
unconsciously he just agreed with me but he still hasn't realized it, the 3DS was dead
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I will be careful because I've been banned over expressing my views about Digital Foundry. Please don't take anything I'm about to say as inflammatory as it's me simply being a skeptic. Feel free to tell me I'm wrong...
I wouldn't take anything in that video as gospel. I fail to see anything in that video that isn't boilerplate speculation from a video game forum.
I also don't think that Nintendo is planning based on what a youtuber has to say. There are better pieces of information to use for informed speculation about future Nintendo hardware.
Nintendo can't wait for the Switch to sell 10 million or less a fiscal year to announce and release the successor. The right time is the 7 year cycle! Crossgen games and PS5/XS remasters with PS4/XOne are already ending. After that it will be more difficult to receive ports! And Nintendo can't miss out on Day One games like Dragon Quest XII, KH4, MHW2, and Persona 6.
Yes, of course. They don't know anymore than the rest of us. But the comments about how off the beaten path Switch development is to support if that version isn't used as the base was interesting. It can be worth the investment but Switch will increasingly be the odd man out as support for game engines skew towards the higher end platforms.
The 7 year cycle for them is March 2024 and quite a bit of us think 2024 is the year. Day One releases would be ideal but Nintendo can't miss out? Mario Kart will likely sell more than all of that combined, I'm sure they will be fine.
@MysticGon Switch will be just another platform in Nintendo's history, they will move on eventually. Switch and PS5 development is hardly important because the games that sell Switch's have already come and Switch is certainly at the end of its run.
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I think WB will be there. Mortal Kombat 12, Wonder Woman, maybe even a late port of Suicide Squad if it sells well
Are you trolling?!? Like seriously? Dead means not selling. It even had a game release at the end of 2017 that ended up selling 9M copies. It was not dead, it was on the decline. It was dead in 2019.
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The internet forum dwellers have been saying this for about four years now. Yet, the Switch keeps getting games. The active install base matters more than the technical specs. Yes, some games will skip the Switch but some games have always skipped the Switch. It's usually due to the developer not really knowing much about the Switch's user base. Notice that Square-Enix decided to port Nier Automata after seeing Astral Chain sell well, not after studying the hardware to see if it could "handle" it.
One thing that the forum dwellers and Digital Foundry overlook is that there aren't very many PS5/XSeries games yet that CAN'T be done on a PS4. The new-gen systems are still PS4 Pro Pro's and Xbox One X X's. It takes a very, very long time to make a game that uses the computing power of the PS5 in such a way that the PS4/Switch can't also have a faithful port. All the games I've seen have used the extra computing power to brute force coding and skip optimizing, as well as shinier graphics that aren't noticable to most customers. There hasn't been any game whose gameplay and scope can't be done on older hardware. That may change down the line but I don't think we will see it. Remember that BotW was a huge hit with tons of new gameplay ideas and we only saw the BotW-influenced Elden Ring last year because it takes that long to make a new game that incorporates new gameplay ideas.
As we talk about the hardware side, we have to remember the context that AAA games now take 5 years to develop. That means that they are being designed before the hardware is even released, unless the game is released late in the cycle. Due to the new hardware not being finalized for most of the development period, by definition the game will be scalable. Porting then becomes a question of time and money rather than technical feasiblity.
Stray could run on the Switch with the right time and money to optimize the port and figure out the right compromises. As could Jak and Daxter, and Demon's Souls, and Spider Man, etc. We haven't yet seen the killer app that uses the hardware in a way to provide a genuinely new entertainment experience like Mario 64, Soul Calibur, Grand Theft Auto 3, Wii Sports, and Breath of the Wild (in that Breath of the Wild was designed to be able to be played in 20 minute bites with distinct goals as well as hours long binges so it merged the bite sized play styles of portables and the binge styles of home based consoles).
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It's true that most games can be distilled into a design that can work any nearly any hardware.
The quality of what your destroying can also be argued over. Does the building you are blowing up need to have 4K textures and destruction physics?
If the team is motivated and disciplined enough anything is possible.
More games will start to be designed around larger memory pools and faster CPUs once cross gen phases out and then it would become an issue of willpower, even if they are leaving money on the table.
The Nikkei saying late 2024.
www.nikkei.com
I wonder what happened to those dev kits which some people insisted were sent out in 2020?
ニンテンドースイッチ「最も売れたゲーム機」視野 悩みは後継機 - 日本経済新聞
任天堂が成長の踊り場を迎えている。主力の「ニンテンドースイッチ」の累計販売は1億2000万台を超え、家庭用ゲーム機として過去最高を更新する可能性も出てきた。「マリオ」に代表されるソフトも好調で業績は過去最高水準で推移する。ただ、浮沈を繰り返してきたのが任天堂の歴史だ。近い将来の主力機の代替わりに失敗すれば停滞が待ち受ける。利用者が1億人を超える「億ゲー」の台頭などで激変するゲーム業界でどう生き残
www.nikkei.com
I wonder what happened to those dev kits which some people insisted were sent out in 2020?
The Nikkei saying late 2024.
ニンテンドースイッチ「最も売れたゲーム機」視野 悩みは後継機 - 日本経済新聞
任天堂が成長の踊り場を迎えている。主力の「ニンテンドースイッチ」の累計販売は1億2000万台を超え、家庭用ゲーム機として過去最高を更新する可能性も出てきた。「マリオ」に代表されるソフトも好調で業績は過去最高水準で推移する。ただ、浮沈を繰り返してきたのが任天堂の歴史だ。近い将来の主力機の代替わりに失敗すれば停滞が待ち受ける。利用者が1億人を超える「億ゲー」の台頭などで激変するゲーム業界でどう生き残
I wonder what happened to those dev kits which some people insisted were sent out in 2020?
They have been sent out on April 1st, 2020
The devil is in the details
For more contextThe Nikkei saying late 2024.
ニンテンドースイッチ「最も売れたゲーム機」視野 悩みは後継機 - 日本経済新聞
任天堂が成長の踊り場を迎えている。主力の「ニンテンドースイッチ」の累計販売は1億2000万台を超え、家庭用ゲーム機として過去最高を更新する可能性も出てきた。「マリオ」に代表されるソフトも好調で業績は過去最高水準で推移する。ただ、浮沈を繰り返してきたのが任天堂の歴史だ。近い将来の主力機の代替わりに失敗すれば停滞が待ち受ける。利用者が1億人を超える「億ゲー」の台頭などで激変するゲーム業界でどう生き残
I wonder what happened to those dev kits which some people insisted were sent out in 2020?
Sure it does, last year same period they were talking for 25m from suppliers.
Last year they forecasted 21 million switches, so assuming they assumed they’d be over that and would produce a bit more, 25 million works for production.
The article says shipped (according to MT) which makes no sense since this year they already cut it to 19 million (and it will be tough to make that as is). If they mean produced, then they’d expect to ship like 16-17 million using a similar over amount. I don’t see that happening realistically given the slow down they are facing now.
Maybe they plan to finally cut prices?
I feel like that is exactly what most sensible people would predict. They still have Metroid and I would guess a Mario game. Just based on the Movie being released. I cant see them not putting out a Mario game. Of course, I am just guessing.
They can go the Sony path and "Remaster" The Zelda games, and launch with Mariokart 9, 2025 for Splatoon 4 and reveal a new artstyle for Zelda in June 2025. All makes sense to me.
It also gives Monolith soft the time they need to make a new game, or at least be far on in development. 2023 was always unrealistic.
I think most of us expect Switch 2 to go the crossgen-route for most 1st-party titles, so I don't get why not launch Switch 2 THIS year and do crossgen instead of doing it in 2024 when there's nothing to lose instead of waiting this long and handing Sony so much time to grow both in Japan and worldwide. Nintendo had a real chance to make the Switch 2 an even greater success, but that seems slipping away now with PS5 establishing the same 3rd-party support from Japan as PS4 and other manufacturers flooding the market with PC-handhelds (none of which will come close to the Switch 2, but all together will make Switch 2 less unique).
I also don't why "experts" still expect Switch 2 to be Orin-based when that chipset will be ancient by late 2024. What'd I'd give to know whether this late launch was always planned or something forced Nintendo's hands to delay it by about two years ...
I just don't get that logic at all. The crossgen-route just means not giving people a strong motivation to upgrade to the new hardware. Again, we have no idea what the Next Nintendo console is. It could be just a straight switch 2.. sure.. or it could have features we don't know about.
I think it was always planned. Look at the software line up.. is there really any sign that it wasnt planned this way? You could argue some games would run better on more powerful hardware, but it is unlikely that those games were suddenly scaled back at the last minute for Switch.. that is just not likely.
Even Bayonetta 3 is not as bad as people make out.. and the Zelda Musuo, which was also sited as a reason for a pro, ran like a dynasty warriors game in my opinion.
Metroid 4 is probably going to be the last big unique switch game. I feel like they can do a movie tie in Mario and a few smaller games... but they will want to make their installbase hungry for a new console. Cross gen just doesnt do that.
Price cuts won’t stop the bleeding of demand that much, and it might not be possible on the high end sku given their comments. The lite would probably be out as well, so then you are left with OG sku, and that would just cut into Lite sales. Even then I don’t think it’s realistic to expect price cuts to allow for only like a 1-2 million drop FY on FY (I expect them to miss their current goal and hit like 18 milllion).
Maybe I am missing something, but wasnt the switch the bestselling console in the US, Japan and France in 2022?... Just off the top of my head Lite to 120 bucks
Oled to $250.. OG to $200. New console launches at $400, what do you think?
Nate, MVG and Digital Foundry did a podcast on this today and they've been told my developer's that Nintendo recalled those dev kits. I guess the semiconductor shortage changed their plans.The Nikkei saying late 2024.
ニンテンドースイッチ「最も売れたゲーム機」視野 悩みは後継機 - 日本経済新聞
任天堂が成長の踊り場を迎えている。主力の「ニンテンドースイッチ」の累計販売は1億2000万台を超え、家庭用ゲーム機として過去最高を更新する可能性も出てきた。「マリオ」に代表されるソフトも好調で業績は過去最高水準で推移する。ただ、浮沈を繰り返してきたのが任天堂の歴史だ。近い将来の主力機の代替わりに失敗すれば停滞が待ち受ける。利用者が1億人を超える「億ゲー」の台頭などで激変するゲーム業界でどう生き残
I wonder what happened to those dev kits which some people insisted were sent out in 2020?
Those are wayyyy too low. I think at best we see a $50 cut to each model, but I'm even skeptical of that. Maybe they'll stop making the original and just have OLED at $300 with a free 3 months of Switch online.