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Switch 2 most likely won't release before 2025, how can Nintendo maintain momentum until then?
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I honestly forgot that Nintendo announced NXs launch date of March 2017 all the way back in April 2016, well before its October 2016 reveal.
Obviously Nintendo's in a much different position from 2016: a non-existent Wii U and softening 3DS sales most definitely affected timelines.
But Nintendo's uncontested purple ocean product is definitely having the opposite effect: why halt a good thing? Switch will sell double digit million units in its 8th year, with many more millions of software sold.
I'll be pleasantly surprised on a March/April 2025 release, but all we have now is a vague timeline of a successor system being revealed by the end of the FY. Every day I'm less convinced it'll be in my hands early next year.*
*Watch the financial briefing in a few days blow this all up
Obviously Nintendo's in a much different position from 2016: a non-existent Wii U and softening 3DS sales most definitely affected timelines.
But Nintendo's uncontested purple ocean product is definitely having the opposite effect: why halt a good thing? Switch will sell double digit million units in its 8th year, with many more millions of software sold.
I'll be pleasantly surprised on a March/April 2025 release, but all we have now is a vague timeline of a successor system being revealed by the end of the FY. Every day I'm less convinced it'll be in my hands early next year.*
*Watch the financial briefing in a few days blow this all up
we don't. shipping data is always a couple months behind, so if it started, we won't know for a while
Just because 8 years ago Nintendo did things one way doesn't mean they will do it the same way this time, in a different market position and under a different leadership.
My very neutral and inoffensive opinion is that they'll probably tell us more on November 5th and that trying to predict what they'll do is an exercise in clairvoyance, not forecasting.
My very neutral and inoffensive opinion is that they'll probably tell us more on November 5th and that trying to predict what they'll do is an exercise in clairvoyance, not forecasting.
OP
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Everything's possible at this point, it seems like Nintendo is keeping their cards extremely close to their chest and their partners are not even aware of when the reveal will occur.
The only thing I can add to this is that November 4th is a Holiday in Japan so nothing will happen at that moment.
For those that believe in a 2024 reveal, the next (and last imho) chance is on November 5th before/when their earnings will be released at around 4PM JST.
The only thing I can add to this is that November 4th is a Holiday in Japan so nothing will happen at that moment.
For those that believe in a 2024 reveal, the next (and last imho) chance is on November 5th before/when their earnings will be released at around 4PM JST.
I assume you expect a repeat of the 3DS reveal if it were to happen at that time?
They won't be able to dodge the question, but I can see them simply announcing that a proper reveal of hardware and software will happen in january, look forward to it, please be excited etc.
Nintendo is in a position good enough that Furukawa could simply said "we will communicate when we think it's the best time", stock will take a minor beating for a few weeks and then recover.
Even if mass production has not started yet, I think its start will be executed very soon. And due to this, I dont expect a launch later in H2 2025 (e.g. September or October). I think Switch 2 will release in June 2025 at latest, maybe even a litte earlier (May). I dont think that Nintendo will do mass production for 8-10 months in advance before the release will happen, this would be too long.
I agree, though they kinda tied by what he said in April, not confirming the reveal for this FY would raise concern about a delay and a last minute plan change... Not to mention they may also have to revise their hardware forecast down...
But We will know soon enough !
somewhatfaragile
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Just keep going I guess. If they hit the reset button with the Switch 2, then third-party sales could suffer even more.
We all remember how third-parties supposedly returned with the Wii U reveal.
We all remember how third-parties supposedly returned with the Wii U reveal.
We obviously don't know switch 2 hardware (though we have a pretty clear idea from leaks etc), but I'm not sure WiiU is a valid point of comparison.
Wii U situation isn't going to happen again, at least not from a software or hardware standpoint. third parties will just build on-top of the Switch's software
I think the impact would be mitigated somewhat, at least in JP. The bigger concern would be the bugger pubs like SE, Sega, & Western 3rd parties.
somewhatfaragile
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True but I am seeing the Switch train starting to slow down. Its not the cliff that we saw with the Wii, but the idea of a handheld system that plays third-party games isn't as exciting as it once was.
We also know that the Switch 2 wont be cheap.
The "train is slowing down" because the Switch is about to enter its 8th year in the market. And even then the Switch is doing surprisingly well considering its age. And not sure how you come to the conclusion that handhelds aren't as exciting in the eyes of the consumer anymore.
Define Cheap for hardware $$$
CORRECTION... bout to enter its 9th year, as it's been its its 8th year for 8 months now
somewhatfaragile
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Yeah it's remarkable what Nintendo have done after the Wii cliff situation. However there is going to be some growing pain going forward.
Yeah, but I will be honest, my thinking of what comes next for a sequel to the Switch platform feels more a matter of software than hardware.
Not so much the games, that will come... more of a matter of the firmware, I think that Nintendo can do more on that front and given that they want to keep NSO rolling, I don't think that they will get much of a choice.
Growing pain? Explanation, if your talking about hardware sales, the system will be at 150mil by years end. Even if sales decline by 50% everywhere WW next year, that's still a strong result with nsw exceeding close too or over 160mil lifetime
Ho please don't tell me switch 2 has to do better than switch to be considered a success
I assume they mean growing pains during the transition to Switch 2.
Oh what's the definition of that cuz i dont kno the details (if you dont Mind explaining)
I can’t speak for that poster but I’d guess it means a slow transition of people going from Switch 1 to 2 adding in potential pain points for Nintendo when it comes to getting their software output for the new more powerful hardware to match what they have been doing for 8 years.
I’m sure everybody defines it their own way, but ultimately the only definition that matters is how Nintendo themselves sees the transition from 1 to 2 going.
Personally, I’m not overly concerned. They have maintained interest in their hardware and software all these years later, they have shown a clear escalation of features for their subscription service, they’re still pushing their non-videogame initiatives, and they’ve expressed a clear interest in making a smooth transition.
I feel like I could go on with thoughts but I must put kids to bed…and then go live in the play test for a few hours (another example of them thinking long term).
I think a handheld running games like Elden Ring, BG3 and Cyberpunk next year will still be pretty exciting for the massmarket.
Switch is showing the strongest console EOL since basically PS2 as well, they're looking at a better transitional environment than probably anyone imagined possible.
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And they're likely to make that transition without a "599 US Dollars" moment or having to reckon with overblown promises of the future that it didn't live up to, as we saw with the PS2-to-PS3 transition.
OP
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Mario & Luigi review embargo is apparently lifting today.
I bring this up for two reasons:
1. This is the last Nintendo game of 2024.
2. Reviews on Monday is very unusual for Nintendo. This might point toward an announcement on Tuesday (doesnt have to be Switch 2 related tho).
I bring this up for two reasons:
1. This is the last Nintendo game of 2024.
2. Reviews on Monday is very unusual for Nintendo. This might point toward an announcement on Tuesday (doesnt have to be Switch 2 related tho).
Interesting. Are results tomorrow or in 2 days ?
At this point I don't believe in anything, all has been so out of the blue these last days, they could announce a 2024 version of the classic ultra hand, a new game & watch line or a Nintendo dog collar to gamify the morning doggo walk
OP
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Results are tomorrow in afternoon for Japan, morning in Europe and therefore very late this night in the US.
Someone will ask for sure, but they can just refer them to the initial acknowledgment of them revealing it this FY, if they had something planned or wanted to share something they would have already mentioned it in some way like they did on the day of their FY 2024 report via a tweet.
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Someone correct me if I am mistaken but the tweet came around one after the earnings iirc?
If Nintendo have anything to anonce regarding to Switch 2 it can still happen tomorow with the mid year conference with inverstors.
I am curious to see what they will said on that conference because they were no big releases like last year with the movie and Zelda.
This was last year conference for instance:
I am curious to see what they will said on that conference because they were no big releases like last year with the movie and Zelda.
This was last year conference for instance:
Yeah it came a bit after the earnings release, so we could get something in the next few hours, really doubt it though.
as expected
they have always been very clear, despite all "our" craze and fever
it will be announced before March 31st, 2025
I'm feeling pretty good about my "around Q3 fiscal briefing" prediction.
Disregard the other 23 wrong predictions I made over the past 4 years
Lol. Is Nintendo really doing a Summer release of Switch 2? Because March is not happening with a 2025 reveal.
But at this point i think it's not even coming out before September. They talked about more than enough supply and no scalping issues.
No mass production yet according to rumors. Chinese New Year in late January 2025.
Switch 2 needs 3 million units day 1 and 5 million first month to not have scalping issues.
If they have a mega seller like the next Mario Kart or whatever to release alongside Switch 2 it might be even worse.
But at this point i think it's not even coming out before September. They talked about more than enough supply and no scalping issues.
No mass production yet according to rumors. Chinese New Year in late January 2025.
Switch 2 needs 3 million units day 1 and 5 million first month to not have scalping issues.
If they have a mega seller like the next Mario Kart or whatever to release alongside Switch 2 it might be even worse.
So it'll be announced on the very last day of March 2025.
As I said before it make no sense to announce a console before this holiday it would have just taken the spotlight from switch sales for the holiday and recent released Nintendo games.
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I very much do not understand this argument, because it's true of any given point in the calendar, there is always a reason to say "not now, but soon".
At some point, they should consider what is in the best interests of the hardware that is going to carry them through the next 7-8 years, not the immediate-term considerations of a piece of hardware they are about to abandon. And given they're adjusting their forecast down on hardware this FY (and maybe will have to to do it again), what are they protecting? The hardware is already in a decline, everyone knows it is, if their holiday sales come off really weak, then a new hardware reveal or not doesn't seem to matter to Switch but could matter to this new hardware device, since people not buying Switch this holiday means people are bored of Switch and looking for something else they'd rather spend their money on, and they won't wait that long to do so.
And unless you expect the release calendar to be empty between announcement and release, there will always be software sales that will be diminished. I fully expect people to say next year they can't announce because of the impact on Prime 4 sales (heck, I'm sure there's someone on the internet already saying that).
Noo I don’t agree the holidays are a important period for them because that is when they sell the most. Announcing switch 2 right now will make people just wait and skip the switch for the holidays for their kids. In the end Nintendo is a company and salary gotta be paid so money must come in. Killing your sales just because you wanted to announce a console now instead of after holidays make no sense.
Define abandon, because I can see Nintendo supporting Switch with software for another two years and keep switch around as a budget variant during the same time.
AruanaRiva
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Atlus, Harada, Night game is the new Alliance!!!
Ehh. I think Ninty can still do March or April release with January blow out for news.
Switch 2 is just updated Switch. With how powerful social media is now. There is less reason to keep up the info for months if people can just get hype with big title there.
If Nintendo can produce 1 million switch 2 per month an April release would allow for a 3 million launch if they start producing in January. With 1.5 millions per month we are talking about a 4.5 million launch.
I don't really see the point of saying anything before Christmas/holidays.
I don't really see the point of saying anything before Christmas/holidays.
