With recent reports of the Switch 2 releasing in March 2025 at the earliest (Nikkei), semi-confirmed by Nintendo's forecast (an aggressive 13.5m for Switch 1 during the FY) and communication in early May (Switch 2 news this FY but not at the June Direct), it is the time to follow up the first thread on Switch's transition and momentum.
Nintendo is going into next gen with a lot of momentum... and still several cards to play
As we slowly go into 2024 and a new era for Nintendo with the expected arrival of its next platform, it is the perfect time to sit and think about Nintendo's current position in the gaming landscape. Exceptional momentum 2023 was supposed to be a pivotal year for Nintendo. It is the year that...
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This is the second part of a bigger series. Today we will try to answer the following question : how can Nintendo maintain the brand's momentum when most of their workforce is focused on making games for the successor ?
General context
The current FY has been forecasted with a small decrease for Nintendo Switch sales, from 15.7M to 13.5M (-14%). This is a challenging forecast, especially since no game of the Zelda/Mario/Pokémon caliber has been announced yet. Tears of the Kingdom was a big driver of Switch sales last FY. This is paving the way for the Switch to eventually surpass the PS2 (160M) as the best-selling console of all-times.
On a broader view, 2024 is a challenging year for the industry, marked by struggling publishers with rounds and rounds of layoffs whereas Xbox is fighting to find its own identity and reigniting interest on the brand. Playstation 5 is nonetheless doing good to great but the FY will not be a busy one for PS Studio in terms of output and hardware declines are expected by Sony despite the rumored launch of a new model (PS5 Pro).
Lastly, Grand Theft Auto VI has recently been set for a Fall 2025 release and won't disrupt the current FY.
In this context, there are ways for Nintendo to keep momentum around their IPs and Switch brand :
- Games, obviously
- Audiovisual / mobile content
- Bundles, price promotions ... and a new revision ?
Potential Nintendo Switch games
When it comes to the upcoming Switch release schedule, let's resume the facts:
- There are 3 Switch games dated, all between May and July (Paper Mario, LM2 HD and NES WC)
- There are two other Switch games announced, Metroid Prime 4 (TBD) and Pokémon Legends Z-A (2025)
- Nintendo's president announced the company would be holding a Nintendo Direct in June, its first of the year.
Let's think of their options in that context:
Tomodachi Life (3DS, 2013)
Probably the IP with the highest potential that still didn't make its way on the Switch. It has been more than a decade since the release of Tomodachi Life. It was a top 10 best-selling game on 3DS with over 6,7M units sold. The audience is there and has been expanded with the smashing success of Animal Crossing: New Horizons. It could be a great Holiday release.
Another big IP missing a new game on Switch is Donkey Kong. There have been multiple reports of Nintendo trying to find a home for the big Ape, with little success. It seems like they have taken things in their own hands with EPD Tokyo (the usual 3D Mario team) recruiting for a 2D game. The franchise will also be on the spotlight this year with the opening of dedicated section in Nintendo's World, Nintendo's own amusement park. Coul be another great Holiday release.
Metroid Prime 4 is a tricky question since it doesn't fit the profile of games mentioned before. Some could argue that it could be a great cross-gen release and it will ultimately depend on what Nintendo has in store for the Switch 2 launch. Still, the game has been rebooted in Late 2018 (with an official announcement in January 2019) and should be very close to completion. Metroid Prime 1 HD also showed how good the game could look on Switch 1 too.
(Examples of some previous Switch remakes/remasters)
Lastly, they could release more remakes/remasters as those can be easily outsourced and developped more quickly than full blown games. They are multiple options on the table :
- Fire Emblem Remake, as Shadow of Valentia was a 2017 release.
- Zelda remasters like Wind Waker and Twilight Princess which are amongst the few games that were not ported from the WiiU
- Metroid Prime 2 & 3 ? In case MP4 isn't for this year.
- Bandai Namco is working on a Nintendo remake, is it the right time for it ?
- Remasters/remakes of dormant franchises like Star Fox, Golden Sun or F-Zero ?
- Pokémon Remakes ? 2024 looks to be another off year for the franchise, or is it ?
Audiovisual / mobile content
Nintendo also have the option to rely on mobile (like in in 2016 with the GO craze) to keep its brand power up during the transition. As such we can mention the upcoming Pokémon TCG mobile release that should generate excitement and millions of downloads.
Pokémon Pocket, 2024
Still, GO isn't something you can expect to replicate and it seems like Nintendo has other plans. Indeed, in the recent financial briefing, and following the acquisition of Nintendo Pictures, they admitted to be working on audiovisual content beyond the theatrical releases. Could be expect a show or any kind of content to be released this year based on Nintendo IPs ? There are countless examples of big boosts following such releases (Witcher, Mario, TLOU, Fallout...).
Bundles, price promotions ... and a new revision ?
Nintendo, May 10th 2024, Q&A
The 13.5m forecast for the Switch this FY is challenging and Nintendo mentioned how it could reach that number. One of the key strategy is to increase the number of Switch per households by catering to families and kids. How could they convince people that didn't jump in yet ?- By lowering the entry barrier
- Offering a new value proposition
It is a me, the Mario Kart Bundle ! Edition 8 ?
Lastly, Nintendo will want to speak to this audience today and after the successor's release, which will probably be too pricey initially for kids and most families. In the past, this has often translated to the release of a cheaper revision at the tail end of the system life :
The new Nintendo 2DS XL launched to replace the n3DS models as a cheaper alternative, scrapping the 3D in the process
A new revision definitely could help Nintendo to reach its target while expanding its audience to families and kids. If the strategy is to increase the number of Switch per household is it going to build on the main model (like the 3DS) or the cheaper one ? Is 2024 the right timing for a revision or is better for after the Switch 2 launch ?
To conclude, it does seem like 2024 is going to be a big transition year for Nintendo, and as such needs to be managed well to keep interest around the brand and its ecosystem high while we wait for the Switch 2. However, the competion struggles and the overall 2024 release schedule is giving them enough air to exist. The upcoming June Direct will shed the light on their plans for 2024 and will tell how easily their upcoming games will generate sales and hype without taking away from what could be Switch 2 launch window games. They have ways beyond games to deliver (2016 was a great example of that between the 3DS, Go and the NES Mini) so it will be interesting to see how things will unfold.
In light of all that, how do you think Nintendo is going to balance things out between the need to keep the momentum going and the will to push as hard as possible the Switch successor ?
