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Switch 2 most likely won't release before 2025, how can Nintendo maintain momentum until then?

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With recent reports of the Switch 2 releasing in March 2025 at the earliest (Nikkei), semi-confirmed by Nintendo's forecast (an aggressive 13.5m for Switch 1 during the FY) and communication in early May (Switch 2 news this FY but not at the June Direct), it is the time to follow up the first thread on Switch's transition and momentum.


This is the second part of a bigger series. Today we will try to answer the following question : how can Nintendo maintain the brand's momentum when most of their workforce is focused on making games for the successor ?

General context


The current FY has been forecasted with a small decrease for Nintendo Switch sales, from 15.7M to 13.5M (-14%). This is a challenging forecast, especially since no game of the Zelda/Mario/Pokémon caliber has been announced yet. Tears of the Kingdom was a big driver of Switch sales last FY. This is paving the way for the Switch to eventually surpass the PS2 (160M) as the best-selling console of all-times.

On a broader view, 2024 is a challenging year for the industry, marked by struggling publishers with rounds and rounds of layoffs whereas Xbox is fighting to find its own identity and reigniting interest on the brand. Playstation 5 is nonetheless doing good to great but the FY will not be a busy one for PS Studio in terms of output and hardware declines are expected by Sony despite the rumored launch of a new model (PS5 Pro).

Lastly, Grand Theft Auto VI has recently been set for a Fall 2025 release and won't disrupt the current FY.


In this context, there are ways for Nintendo to keep momentum around their IPs and Switch brand :
  1. Games, obviously
  2. Audiovisual / mobile content
  3. Bundles, price promotions ... and a new revision ?

Potential Nintendo Switch games

When it comes to the upcoming Switch release schedule, let's resume the facts:
  • There are 3 Switch games dated, all between May and July (Paper Mario, LM2 HD and NES WC)
  • There are two other Switch games announced, Metroid Prime 4 (TBD) and Pokémon Legends Z-A (2025)
  • Nintendo's president announced the company would be holding a Nintendo Direct in June, its first of the year.
Given the upcoming launch of the successor and Nintendo's current output, it seems like there is a clear pattern of what games they deem fit to release at this point of the Switch lifecycle. The games are mostly externally developped, not graphic intensive showcase/not laser focused on the core audience, and are mostly remakes.

Let's think of their options in that context:

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Tomodachi Life (3DS, 2013)

Probably the IP with the highest potential that still didn't make its way on the Switch. It has been more than a decade since the release of Tomodachi Life. It was a top 10 best-selling game on 3DS with over 6,7M units sold. The audience is there and has been expanded with the smashing success of Animal Crossing: New Horizons. It could be a great Holiday release.

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Another big IP missing a new game on Switch is Donkey Kong. There have been multiple reports of Nintendo trying to find a home for the big Ape, with little success. It seems like they have taken things in their own hands with EPD Tokyo (the usual 3D Mario team) recruiting for a 2D game. The franchise will also be on the spotlight this year with the opening of dedicated section in Nintendo's World, Nintendo's own amusement park. Coul be another great Holiday release.

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Metroid Prime 4
is a tricky question since it doesn't fit the profile of games mentioned before. Some could argue that it could be a great cross-gen release and it will ultimately depend on what Nintendo has in store for the Switch 2 launch. Still, the game has been rebooted in Late 2018 (with an official announcement in January 2019) and should be very close to completion. Metroid Prime 1 HD also showed how good the game could look on Switch 1 too.

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(Examples of some previous Switch remakes/remasters)
Lastly, they could release more remakes/remasters as those can be easily outsourced and developped more quickly than full blown games. They are multiple options on the table :

  • Fire Emblem Remake, as Shadow of Valentia was a 2017 release.​
  • Zelda remasters like Wind Waker and Twilight Princess which are amongst the few games that were not ported from the WiiU​
  • Metroid Prime 2 & 3 ? In case MP4 isn't for this year.​
  • Bandai Namco is working on a Nintendo remake, is it the right time for it ?​
  • Remasters/remakes of dormant franchises like Star Fox, Golden Sun or F-Zero ?​
  • Pokémon Remakes ? 2024 looks to be another off year for the franchise, or is it ?​
These remasters/remakes don't have the same level of potential, ranging from 1m to 15m but could provide a nice swan song for the Switch.


Audiovisual / mobile content

Nintendo also have the option to rely on mobile (like in in 2016 with the GO craze) to keep its brand power up during the transition. As such we can mention the upcoming Pokémon TCG mobile release that should generate excitement and millions of downloads.

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Pokémon Pocket, 2024

Still, GO isn't something you can expect to replicate and it seems like Nintendo has other plans. Indeed, in the recent financial briefing, and following the acquisition of Nintendo Pictures, they admitted to be working on audiovisual content beyond the theatrical releases. Could be expect a show or any kind of content to be released this year based on Nintendo IPs ? There are countless examples of big boosts following such releases (Witcher, Mario, TLOU, Fallout...).

Bundles, price promotions ... and a new revision ?
This year we will need to implement various initiatives to sell the forecasted number ofNintendo Switch. During last year's holiday season, we sold hardware bundled with software, and we also conveyed the appeal of having multiple units of Nintendo Switch in a household. We plan to implement various initiatives to approach 13.5 million units of sales in the current fiscal year as well.
Nintendo, May 10th 2024, Q&A
The 13.5m forecast for the Switch this FY is challenging and Nintendo mentioned how it could reach that number. One of the key strategy is to increase the number of Switch per households by catering to families and kids. How could they convince people that didn't jump in yet ?
  • By lowering the entry barrier
  • Offering a new value proposition
There are multiple ways Nintendo could try to lower the entry barrier. The thing to keep in mind is that you don't want to devalue your product when the successor is near, Switch maintained its launch price in Japan/US for so long after all. Therefore, they use of bundles and temporary price cuts (during the Holidays) could be the way to go. Options like a definitive price cut and/or a Select line doesn't make much sense before the successor release (after is another topic altogether).

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It is a me, the Mario Kart Bundle ! Edition 8 ?

Lastly, Nintendo will want to speak to this audience today and after the successor's release, which will probably be too pricey initially for kids and most families. In the past, this has often translated to the release of a cheaper revision at the tail end of the system life :

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The new Nintendo 2DS XL launched to replace the n3DS models as a cheaper alternative, scrapping the 3D in the process

A new revision definitely could help Nintendo to reach its target while expanding its audience to families and kids. If the strategy is to increase the number of Switch per household is it going to build on the main model (like the 3DS) or the cheaper one ? Is 2024 the right timing for a revision or is better for after the Switch 2 launch ?


To conclude, it does seem like 2024 is going to be a big transition year for Nintendo, and as such needs to be managed well to keep interest around the brand and its ecosystem high while we wait for the Switch 2. However, the competion struggles and the overall 2024 release schedule is giving them enough air to exist. The upcoming June Direct will shed the light on their plans for 2024 and will tell how easily their upcoming games will generate sales and hype without taking away from what could be Switch 2 launch window games. They have ways beyond games to deliver (2016 was a great example of that between the 3DS, Go and the NES Mini) so it will be interesting to see how things will unfold.

In light of all that, how do you think Nintendo is going to balance things out between the need to keep the momentum going and the will to push as hard as possible the Switch successor ?
 
As I said earlier, we do know that Limited Run Games was presumably part of this big round of meetings; however, do you have a source attesting that there were more smaller devs and publishers involved? Again, for what I've said earlier it would come off as no surprise, but I'd still rather have see something tangible with my own eyes rather than a more vague "wording online" :P
I do not, and even if I did I would not share it. Its just an observation and in line with how the every console manufactures does their meetings.
 
Yeah, this doesn't really point to an imminent reveal. Could just be the case that Nintendo is broadening the number of companies that have info about the Switch 2, from big publishers and close partners to Nintendo before to now be a wider group of publishers and studios.
As a general rule, when operating under a cone of silence as Nintendo has been, you don’t fan info out past major publishers and devs until you’re close to a reveal, because the risk of leaks dramatically increases. Match this with Dring/Robinson suggesting a September reveal and that’s a ton of smoke, would be weird to suggest there’s no fire.
 
There are multiple details that make this legit or an impressively made fake.
It looks very believable. Most of these so called leaks or even mock-ups have various details that just make no sense like both joy-sticks at the top all of a sudden or other nonsense.
Bigger SL and SR buttons would be really great and make sense.
 
many developers are going to Japan for the TGS: once there maybe



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That's a Switch (not-so) Lite!

The rounder edges will be of great aid for a tablet this large.
Honestly I'd like this form factor for the actual console.
 
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If these pics would be true:

I will be honest: I find them very boring. Looks to much like Switch 1 to me. And I dont see any new cool Joycon features at all. Stuff like scrollable wheel-shoulder-buttons or integrated touchpads or stuff like this, it simply looks 95% as the old Switch and old joycons. This would disappoint me
 
The rounder edges will be of great aid for a tablet this large.
Honestly I'd like this form factor for the actual console.

EDIT:

spec sheet is out too

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It's pretty much what was expected from the Nvidia leak from 2022 and the shipments labels.
It is a summary of the shipment data gathered by Famiboards, not a specs sheet leak.
If these pics would be true:

I will be honest: I find them very boring. Looks to much like Switch 1 to me. And I dont see any new cool Joycon features at all. Stuff like scrollable wheel-shoulder-buttons or integrated touchpads or stuff like this, it simply looks 95% as the old Switch and old joycons. This would disappoint me
Look again, there are at least 4 main differences between those Joycons and the current ones.
 
It is a summary of the shipment data gathered by Famiboards, not a specs sheet leak.

Look again, there are at least 4 main differences between those Joycons and the current ones.

Yes but no special differences ;) A slighty other form and a new detachable button is nothing that set the world on fire for me
 
Not a fan of rounded devices, I think it's high time we go back to sharp corners, it's not like you can put a switch in your pockets anyway.

Happy about the screen size, I recently bought FE3H and the text size it criminally small.
 
Not a fan of rounded devices, I think it's high time we go back to sharp corners, it's not like you can put a switch in your pockets anyway.
A handheld with sharp corners sound like a horrible idea 😅
imo the Switch already can be uncomfortable in long sessions so a more rounded design would be great.
 
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Bezel appears to be similar size as OLED (though screen itself is (significantly?) bigger). Wonder what this would mean for a potential mid-gen upgrade à la OLED.

But yeah, pretty boring if it's a fake. Not sure if legit though, there doesn't appear to be anything that wasn't previously hinted/mentioned in past leaks/rumours/speculations so we could have another joker with a 3D printer and too much time on their hands.
 
Yes but no special differences ;) A slighty other form and a new detachable button is nothing that set the world on fire for me
We wouldn't know until Nintendo shows how they will use it, but they have more options now, either by using the 2nd USB-C port, the 3rd Joycon button, the magnets on the Joycon or even the alledged micro.
 
If these leaks are true, this thing will be extremely successful. More powerful than a PS4, decent ram, DLSS capabilities, likely backward compatible, called Switch 2 and not some silly name, bigger screen, hopefully a proper joystick, not over 400.

I see some people wanting better joycons, but the most important market for the Switch is family, these controllers need to fit kids like a glove. And while it may sound odd, girls have smaller hands, and when they show off Animal Crossing, 20 million girls are gonna storm every shop nationwide trying to get a hold of one of these. Grown men are secondary.
 
Nintendo has been sitting on some games for a year or more before releasing them. Comparatively Echoes of Wisdom was rated at the end of May meaning there was a much shorter turnaround between the game being finished and it being released.
ah yeah thanks. I think sitting on certain lower key games and releasing them in strategic spots has been a very good strategy for Nintendo.
 
This is particularly interesting these days, what with the approaching new gen, as it allows us to try and guess when to expect games from certain developers/studios on the new platform. In this case, it's clear Grezzo's first game for The Successor ™️ won't be out any time soon as they literally just finished Echoes of Wisdom (+ they also released that small mobile game a while back, so no B-Team doing early work on something else).

When there's a big gap between rating and release, we can guess developers have moved on to their next project (ie: new gen game). Take XC3 for example, the full game was rated in February 2022, nearly 7 months before planned release month (which is why Monolith Soft. most likely shrugged when Nintendo told them it'd release in July instead :P). Even if you take the development of the expansion in account, we can assume it's more than likely Monolith Soft. will have a new game out during first year of The Successor ™️ (in fact, they're most likely going to be present at full reveal), especially with such a gap between release and rating (by the time the console is out, it'll have been over 3 years since main development on XC3 ended).

Early gen release did wonders for XC2, so hopefully whatever they release this time will benefit from it.
 
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October will be an interesting month, either we get a Switch 2 reveal for a march/april Switch 2 release this month, or we should at least get a Nintendo direct to outline games coming out early 2025 for Nintendo, if the Switch 2 turns out to be a late 2025 release with no reveal until january or march next year.
 
This is particularly interesting these days, what with the approaching new gen, as it allows us to try and guess when to expect games from certain developers/studios on the new platform. In this case, it's clear Grezzo's first game for The Successor ™️ won't be out any time soon as they literally just finished Echoes of Wisdom (+ they also released that small mobile game a while back, so no B-Team doing early work on something else).

When there's a big gap between rating and release, we can guess developers have moved on to their next project (ie: new gen game). Take XC3 for example, the full game was rated in February 2022, nearly 7 months before planned release month (which is why Monolith Soft. most likely shrugged when Nintendo told them it'd release in July instead :P). Even if you take the development of the expansion in account, we can assume it's more than likely Monolith Soft. will have a new game out during first year of The Successor (in fact, they're most likely going to be present at full reveal), especially with such a gap between release and rating (by the time the console is out, it'll have been over 3 years since main development on XC3 ended).
I knew Nintendo was sitting on games but I never took ratings into consideration so thanks for the info. Knowing that Xenoblade is long in development has me excited. Even if they take it slow, I feel we will get one end 2025 like Xenoblade 2 for the Switch.
 
This is particularly interesting these days, what with the approaching new gen, as it allows us to try and guess when to expect games from certain developers/studios on the new platform. In this case, it's clear Grezzo's first game for The Successor ™️ won't be out any time soon as they literally just finished Echoes of Wisdom (+ they also released that small mobile game a while back, so no B-Team doing early work on something else).

When there's a big gap between rating and release, we can guess developers have moved on to their next project (ie: new gen game). Take XC3 for example, the full game was rated in February 2022, nearly 7 months before planned release month (which is why Monolith Soft. most likely shrugged when Nintendo told them it'd release in July instead :P). Even if you take the development of the expansion in account, we can assume it's more than likely Monolith Soft. will have a new game out during first year of The Successor ™️ (in fact, they're most likely going to be present at full reveal), especially with such a gap between release and rating (by the time the console is out, it'll have been over 3 years since main development on XC3 ended).

Early gen release did wonders for XC2, so hopefully whatever they release this time will benefit from it.
But won't their game development take longer on new hardware? Given that is what happened with other big JRPG games when they got more power and new tech available to them?
 
I'm not sure missing October would totally mean missing march/April, i don't think that extra month would be too much of an issue.

I do believe that October or REALLY EARLY November would make more sense to keep that last hurrah of the year to sell the Switch this holiday
 
I'm not sure missing October would totally mean missing march/April, i don't think that extra month would be too much of an issue.

I do believe that October or REALLY EARLY November would make more sense to keep that last hurrah of the year to sell the Switch this holiday
My thinking has always been that Nintendo will reveal the Switch 2 when mass manufacturing of the system starts, which should be around 6 months before launch, give or take some weeks. Meaning an october reveal would point more towards an April 2025 launch at the latest. While a January reveal would point more towards a later 2025 launch of the Switch 2.
 
But won't their game development take longer on new hardware? Given that is what happened with other big JRPG games when they got more power and new tech available to them?
It could but is more dependent on budget, scope, & complications more than the hardware itself. I think 4yrs is about right for the type of game MS makes.
 
But won't their game development take longer on new hardware? Given that is what happened with other big JRPG games when they got more power and new tech available to them?
But that move was alongside the tech to create said games, Nintendo should (in theory) be in last gen power/features but using current gen power/features.

I'm sure a 2024 PC would be much faster at creating a PS4 game than a 2014 PC did back then.
 
I dont think that a rating means that a game is totally finished and completed. I think it only means 'content complete', but for sure, there could still be some massive polishing work to do for this game. For example in case of Xeno 3, I dont think that the game was in a complete state in February 2022. So most probably they would not have been capable to release it in April 2022 for example
 
I dont think that a rating means that a game is totally finished and completed. I think it only means 'content complete', but for sure, there could still be some massive polishing work to do for this game. For example in case of Xeno 3, I dont think that the game was in a complete state in February 2022. So most probably they would not have been capable to release it in April 2022 for example
Xenoblade is the perfect example of a game that was ready well before its planned launch since the game was announced for September before being moved to July, 2 months earlier!
 
Xenoblade is the perfect example of a game that was ready well before its planned launch since the game was announced for September before being moved to July, 2 months earlier!

Yes I know. But it could still be that Monolith planed initially some polishing work till August 2022 and then a release for september 2022. But then Nintendo came and said 'okay, Splatoon 3 needs more time and can only release in september, so Xeno 3 must come two months earlier, so reduce your planed polishing work time'. So I would not be sure that Xeno 3 was really completely finished in february 2022 and MS only sat on this game for a while. I think 'content complete' is sufficient for a rating process
 
Yes I know. But it could still be that Monolith planed initially some polishing work till August 2022 and then a release for september 2022. But then Nintendo came and said 'okay, Splatoon 3 needs more time and can only release in september, so Xeno 3 must come two months earlier, so reduce your planed polishing work time'. So I would not be sure that Xeno 3 was really completely finished in february 2022 and MS only sat on this game for a while. I think 'content complete' is sufficient for a rating process
I mean, these days, you're never finished with work even when you launch. the point is that the game probably went gold around the time of rating or shortly afterwards
 
I mean, these days, you're never finished with work even when you launch. the point is that the game probably went gold around the time of rating or shortly afterwards

I dont think that it probably went gold around the time. As I said: I think it is enough if a game is content complete to get a rating. I am pretty sure that Zelda TotK could also get its rating in spring 2022, because it was content complete at that time. But the devs took almost a year for polishing and bugfixing afterwards and the game would for sure not be the same if Nintendo would have launched it directly after its rating
 
And now for something completely different:




Nintendo dropped more F-Zero games (including one previously unreleased outside of Japan) in addition to updating F-Zero 99 with mroe tracks on the same day.

I know this isn't much, but... to be honest, I really think we might be getting a new F-Zero game early in the Switch 2's life. I think it'd be a good choice, especially since it can make for one heck of a graphical showcase.
 
Yes I agree. Only question is: Will it be a brandnew title or something like a F-Zero GX remake? And which dev team could make this?
 
GX as a Cross Gen Remaster for both Switch/Switch 2 makes sense. If it works out well i can see a new mainline game coming a couple years later to Switch.
 
GX as a Cross Gen Remaster for both Switch/Switch 2 makes sense. If it works out well i can see a new mainline game coming a couple years later to Switch.

My only doubt regarding this: I think new Mario Kart Game will release early in Switch 2 lifespan. So maybe holiday 2025 or even for launch directly. And I think Nintendo would like to spread out release of two racing games, so in this case, F-Zero would come later
 
And now for something completely different:




Nintendo dropped more F-Zero games (including one previously unreleased outside of Japan) in addition to updating F-Zero 99 with mroe tracks on the same day.

I know this isn't much, but... to be honest, I really think we might be getting a new F-Zero game early in the Switch 2's life. I think it'd be a good choice, especially since it can make for one heck of a graphical showcase.

Will Sega be the developer on a new F Zero?
 
And now for something completely different:




Nintendo dropped more F-Zero games (including one previously unreleased outside of Japan) in addition to updating F-Zero 99 with mroe tracks on the same day.

I know this isn't much, but... to be honest, I really think we might be getting a new F-Zero game early in the Switch 2's life. I think it'd be a good choice, especially since it can make for one heck of a graphical showcase.

Climax is very enjoyable, but - a bit like the three Stafy games that got dumped on the platform - it really needs English in there. I mean, especially with this it shouldn't be a massive investment to provide localisation.
 
What about Criterion? Could they be a good dev partner?
Criterion was already asked (though not in an official capacity, as in putting pen to paper). but now, there's no chance as Criterion transitioned to being a Battlefield/NFS studio
 
Is AM2 still active?
Sort of, they were seemingly subsumed into RGGS in the 2020 reorg, but the core staff is still together and they use the classic AM2 branding on certain releases.

Dig down though and you'll find AM2 staffers on the more recent LAD and Monkey Ball games.
 
If new F-Zero Game would 'only' be some kind of HD remaster or remake of F-Zero GX, then it could be developed by Tentalus I think. If they started the project right after the completion of LM2 HD, then the game could be ready for fall 2025 or somewhen close to this
 
Given the complete lack of smoke for a 2024 announcement and the reports regarding a release by April 2024 at the earliest, I’m suspecting that we’ll see an announcement in Q1 for a Q3 release.

Metroid Prime should be enough to cater to hardcore fans, and Pokemon Legends ZA will easily sell 10 million. However, I’m very curious about Nintendo’s strategy regarding the beginning of the year as they only have DKCR HD slated.

Even in 2024, a year in which investors claimed that they had a weak H1, they still had a steadier release cadence dated all the way since September 2023.

Something is off
 
Given the complete lack of smoke for a 2024 announcement and the reports regarding a release by April 2024 at the earliest, I’m suspecting that we’ll see an announcement in Q1 for a Q3 release.

Metroid Prime should be enough to cater to hardcore fans, and Pokemon Legends ZA will easily sell 10 million. However, I’m very curious about Nintendo’s strategy regarding the beginning of the year as they only have DKCR HD slated.

Even in 2024, a year in which investors claimed that they had a weak H1, they still had a steadier release cadence dated all the way since September 2023.

Something is off
as a reminder, insiders didn't start teasing the Switch reveal until a day or two before it actually happened
 
as a reminder, insiders didn't start teasing the Switch reveal until a day or two before it actually happened

Very true. However, this time around we have comments from third party developers and reports from journalists regarding release timeframes.

Additionally, Furukawa gave the company a timeframe up until March 2025 with regards to the announcement.

October just began, so it’s not wise to draw conclusion. This is just my speculation
 
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