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Super Mario Bros. Wonder sold 4.3 million copies in its first 2 weeks

Were Zelda/PK 3 day numbers sell-in or sell-through?

If Spider Man has outpaced Mario to this point that likely won't last through the end of the holiday season. Mario is like the absolute perfect Christmas gift kind of game.
I didnt say it has mediocre legs, Mario just has better legs

mario performs very well during holiday periods, thats where nintendo shines

Spiderman also performs very well as a family title and holiday title.
Spiderman 2018 went on to sell 26M+ iirc
 
This should be until 28th or 29th October.
If corporations now change the general counting of "first 2 weeks", we're fuck
We just don't know what standard they use of starting weeks on a Sunday or Monday

Who did this PR?
Nintendo JP or Nintendo America?

Since WW I’m sure it’s JP. That said yeah first 2 weeks sounds more like 10 days as 14 days would mean Nov 1st and that’s a Thursday and if they meant that week it be 17 days and they would of said 3 weeks.

I’m sure these numbers are till Oct 29th
 
Not sure who John is but SM2 would have to crash hard after first day to not beat Mario Wonder.
I'm just going by Amazon rankings now but Mario wonder is still topping a lot of countrys charts while spiderman is tumbling down the rankings. Japan is also a big factor that spiderman is going to be really smashed by, especially in the upcoming holidays.
 
Not sure who John is but SM2 would have to crash hard after first day to not beat Mario Wonder.

Not really a crash but unlikely, anyway this could be a possibility cuz of high pre orders and major first day purchases compared to other games….

2.5mil First day
1.0mil Saturday/Sunday (3.5mil first week)
800k Week 2 (-75% drop)

4.3mil too. We dont kno but that wouldn’t be a crash but more of a steep drop? SM2 is most likely 5mil sell thru like I said earlier but tied or slightly very very slightly down from Mario isn’t out of a possibility
 
Great sales, always good to see a new franchise record for one with as much success as this.

Reasonable expectations always pointed to a launch that wouldn't be huge (Vs other Switch big titles) but then crazy legs throughout the holiday. We'll see how the crazy legs part goes.
 
Not to derail the subject by too much but there is no way Harker is correct. Spider-Man 2 would have had to crash and burn after its 2.5M opening day to not be ahead of Mario Wonder's 4.3M two week total. I can believe Spidey 2 is frontloaded since it's a direct sequel with a lot for hype, but it won't be that frontloaded.

The only way Harker may be correct is if he doesn't have visibility to sales from hardware bundles.
 
I'm just going by Amazon rankings now but Mario wonder is still topping a lot of countrys charts while spiderman is tumbling down the rankings. Japan is also a big factor that spiderman is going to be really smashed by, especially in the upcoming holidays.

SM2 had a 65% digital in the UK. Amazon isn;t going to be as indicative as it is for Mario.
 
I can't stress this often enough, Day 1 sales to first 2 weeks sales ratio is very often 50:50 to 60:40 for those "hardcore audience highly anticipated AAA games"
There would be nothing super unusual for SM2 to be between 4 and 5 million after 2 weeks.

SM2 should be ahead of Mario Wonders after 2 weeks. Because the low estimate just doesn't seem that likely.
 
Not to derail the subject by too much but there is no way Harker is correct. Spider-Man 2 would have had to crash and burn after its 2.5M opening day to not be ahead of Mario Wonder's 4.3M two week total. I can believe Spidey 2 is frontloaded since it's a direct sequel with a lot for hype, but it won't be that frontloaded.

The only way Harker may be correct is if he doesn't have visibility to sales from hardware bundles.

I don't think would be a crash and Sony choosing to release day one number kinda implies they saw legs weren't the best.
 
Not really a crash but unlikely, anyway this could be a possibility cuz of high pre orders and major first day purchases compared to other games….

2.5mil First day
1.0mil Saturday/Sunday (3.5mil first week)
800k Week 2 (-75% drop)

4.3mil too. We dont kno but that wouldn’t be a crash but more of a steep drop? SM2 is most likely 5mil sell thru like I said earlier but tied or slightly very very slightly down from Mario isn’t out of a possibility

SM2 almost matched Ragnarok first week in UK with digital despite having 2 days less in a week. It also dropped bit less then Ragnarok in 2nd week, 69% vs 73%.

This doesnt indicate crash. Hopefully by next week we will something from Europe/USA NPD/GSD for better comparison. Unless Sony announce something before.
 
What people need to understand is that while Mario is an incredible popular franchise, few people ever see a Mario game as a day 1 must have game, it always relies on good legs to get great sales figures.
 
What people need to understand is that while Mario is an incredible popular franchise, few people ever see a Mario game as a day 1 must have game, it always relies on good legs to get great sales figures.
This, as a reminder for people, NSMBUD just sold another 500k copies in the last quarter to bring it's total says to 16.70 million sold.
 
Spain, which is usually on the lower end of digital ratio, had SM2 with a 50% digital ratio. SM2 is just looking like a game with huge digital.
Quick question: how are sales of the hardware bundle counted? I have a feeling that makes a difference here.
 
Spain, which is usually on the lower end of digital ratio, had SM2 with a 50% digital ratio. SM2 is just looking like a game with huge digital.

Can you bring up the source behind this information? By that I mean a link or / and a reference of any kind to the fact that Spider-Man 2's first-week digital ratio was 50%.
 
How ?

It's highly unlikely game that oppened at 2,5M first day end selling less than 4,3M in 2 weeks.
I meant it's a given that Mario hasn't outpaced Mario YET.

it is possible when games are front-loaded
either way we can already see wonder is out-legging it in many sales charts, it seems mario is doing really well in europa

We mostly have physical charts data, tho... Unless I'm missing something. Those definitely won't tell the entire story.

Having said that, Mario will probably have better legs than Spidey in the long run, but Spider-Man is also Sony's "evergreen" IP in a sense, as it's one of their few games to keep regularly charting even years after release.

So yeah, I doubt Mario is ahead 2 weeks after release. If I had to guess I think Spider is ~2 million ahead with 2 weeks, with the distance slowly diminishing until Mario passes ahead at the holidays.
 
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Probably on the first day sales. The bundle was sold in September
Suddenly I'm reminded about all the early access protests around Starfield's early milestones. I wonder if the same people who insisted that was misleading will also agree then that SM2's "first 24 hours" ran from 09/01 to 10/20?
 
Suddenly I'm reminded about all the early access protests around Starfield's early milestones. I wonder if the same people who insisted that was misleading will also agree then that SM2's "first 24 hours" ran from 09/01 to 10/20?

I forgot about this but that could explain the huge "day 1" sales and would explain a bigger drop in 2nd week?

Too bad we dint have enough data to digest this
 
Suddenly I'm reminded about all the early access protests around Starfield's early milestones. I wonder if the same people who insisted that was misleading will also agree then that SM2's "first 24 hours" ran from 09/01 to 10/20?

I'm sorry, but that's kind of a silly comparison. The thing people were skeptical was about the said first week performance stats, when the game was available to buy AND play almost an entire week prior. Spider's first 24-hour performance should be compared with other games that had a preorder available... Which is every major game.
 
I'm sorry, but that's kind of a silly comparison. The thing people were skeptical was about the said first week performance stats, when the game was available to buy AND play almost an entire week prior. Spider's first 24-hour performance should be compared with other games that had a preorder available... Which is every major game.
It wasn't a preorder, you bought SM2 with the bundle and took full possession immediately. You just couldn't play it early.

I agree it's not early access, but it's not really a preorder either. Maybe closer to a preload digital purchase but those happen less than a week out, not 7 weeks.
 
It wasn't a preorder, you bought SM2 with the bundle and took full possession immediately. You just couldn't play it early.

I agree it's not early access, but it's not really a preorder either. Maybe closer to a preload digital purchase but those happen less than a week out, not 7 weeks.

That's a pre-order. You got a code, for the game when it releases. That's the definition of a pre-order.
 
That's a pre-order. You got a code, for the game when it releases. That's the definition of a pre-order.
No, a pre-order is a purchase intent agreement with a retailer/vendor, not an actual final purchase and full exchange of goods.

SM2 bundle copies weren't treated like preorders on PSN. You couldn't cancel or refund afaik, it was a final purchase of goods.
 
No, a pre-order is a purchase intent agreement with a retailer/vendor, not an actual final purchase and full exchange of goods.

SM2 bundle copies weren't treated like preorders on PSN. You couldn't cancel or refund afaik, it was a final purchase of goods.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here, as I think that situation is way closer to a pre-order than to the purchase of a product that's available to use. Especially in how it would affect consumer behavior.
 
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here, as I think that situation is way closer to a pre-order than to the purchase of a product that's available to use.
It might be closer if it were just a packaged or digital retailer code but it wasn't (and Sony doesn't do those anyway). It was a full branded console + code. This really wasn't just a preorder, the purchase dynamics and commitments were different. And could help explain SM2's more frontloaded nature based on Harker's info. If it's below 4.3m after 2 weeks that'd also explain the silence from SIE on further milestones but I'd prefer waiting for their imminent IR release to make sure.
 
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here, as I think that situation is way closer to a pre-order than to the purchase of a product that's available to use. Especially in how it would affect consumer behavior.

aren't we talking about console bundle already purchased with code inside?
in this very specific case, that's an already purchased copy of the game (redeemed once the code is activated, presumably on launch day)
 
I actually wasn't aware that the Spider-Man 2 console they released in September included a preloaded copy of the game to go along with it. If that's the case then I can absolutely see Spidey's reported day one sales being significantly frontloaded, and it makes it a lot more believable that Mario would outperform it in the two week timespan. I believe Diablo IV's sales were also bolstered by similar early access metrics. You could technically argue it's comparable to a preorder but I don't think that passes the smell test; one requires the buy-in for hardware which is still in very high demand, and you can't opt out of the game itself.
 
The SM2 bundle launched September 1st to be specific. It had a voucher though, SM2 wasn't preloaded. The voucher also couldn't be used like a preorder or even preload, it could only be redeemed starting Oct 20th as a completed purchase.

 
EDIT: wrong source

This is why you need to actually link sources and not pull numbers out of your ass as is convenient to your point.

Do better or in the future we're going to start issuing warnings and higher penalties if you continue to conjure up random numbers without sources, especially when asked for them.
 
The SM2 bundle launched September 1st to be specific. It had a voucher though, SM2 wasn't preloaded. The voucher also couldn't be used like a preorder or even preload, it could only be redeemed starting Oct 20th as a completed purchase.

I think the point is that those bundles are still counted as day 1 sales.
 
Spiderman also performs very well as a family title and holiday title.
Spiderman 2018 went on to sell 26M+ iirc
That particular number looks like you just subtracted the 6.5 million from Miles Morales (from like mid 2021) from the 33 million for the series that came a year later. That really underestimates Miles Morales sales. Spider-Man is probably a 20 million seller (especially when adding the Remaster and PC Port) but, that number is a little faulty.
 
I think the point is that those bundles are still counted as day 1 sales.
Oh yeah, I'm not saying otherwise.

That particular number looks like you just subtracted the 6.5 million from Miles Morales (from like mid 2021) from the 33 million for the series that came a year later. That really underestimates Miles Morales sales. Spider-Man is probably a 20 million seller (especially when adding the Remaster and PC Port) but, that number is a little faulty.
It's also important to remember SM1 did the vast majority of sales at discounted pricepoints. Now that Sony's changed retail strategies SM2 might not reach the same bargain catalog driven heights, which is something we may see generally for their PS5 sequels.
 
I actually wasn't aware that the Spider-Man 2 console they released in September included a preloaded copy of the game to go along with it. If that's the case then I can absolutely see Spidey's reported day one sales being significantly frontloaded, and it makes it a lot more believable that Mario would outperform it in the two week timespan. I believe Diablo IV's sales were also bolstered by similar early access metrics. You could technically argue it's comparable to a preorder but I don't think that passes the smell test; one requires the buy-in for hardware which is still in very high demand, and you can't opt out of the game itself.

That would be true if the PS5 wasn't readily available without a bundle.
 
That would be true if the PS5 wasn't readily available without a bundle.
I don't think they're arguing scarcity driven sales, just that the early full purchase could've impacted the sales curve.

I'd be curious how the bundle was tracked too. If Sony classified the voucher under their digital panel submission in the UK that may help explain the out of the ordinary high digital attach rate (65%) versus other 1st party titles in the region (mostly around 30-40% annual).

How were past bundles handled and did they include vouchers or discs/preloads?
 
Honestly not that impressive to me, even knowing 2D Mario is a legs oriented affair. Not to say I'm disappointed, I didn't have any expectations, just 4.3 million in 10-14 days isn't amazing at all even for the biggest Mario launch ever, this will be a much bigger juggernaught later on. It is a good number of upfront volume for how much legs will keep it selling for months to come.

Also means it's pretty unlikely it outpaced Spider-Man 2 at launch, but that was expected at this point.
I'm certain it's 10 days as they would likely have otherwise said 14 days and TotK's first sellthrough number was through it's first 8 weeks with those 8 weeks almost perfectly aligning with the ending of the quarter if you go by calendar weeks. Otherwise it would be 56 days and what exactly would be the point in reporting TotK's sellthrough up until July 6th?
 
Having said that, Mario will probably have better legs than Spidey in the long run, but Spider-Man is also Sony's "evergreen" IP in a sense, as it's one of their few games to keep regularly charting even years after release.
I'm not sure how you can say Mario will probably have better legs than Spidey while we have a long history of super leggy Mario games and only one leggy SM game. Not all evergreen IP is created equal.

So yeah, I doubt Mario is ahead 2 weeks after release. If I had to guess I think Spider is ~2 million ahead with 2 weeks, with the distance slowly diminishing until Mario passes ahead at the holidays.
so 6.3 mil in 2 weeks after opening with first day of 2.5 mil? That would be amazing sales.
 
Peoples assumes it's sell-trough but it's unclear.
Original PR:


Original PR in Japanese says

※1 任天堂調べ。販売本数にはパッケージ版とダウンロード版を含みます。

*1 Nintendo estimate .The sales volume includes the package version and the download version.

Numbers based on Nintendo's internal estimate. So sold-through.

 
It would be funny if it hit 30 million lifetime on the dot like the first two NSMB games. I think they had special circumstances that Wonder may not easily duplicate but we will just have to see how the holiday goes.
 
I'm not sure how you can say Mario will probably have better legs than Spidey while we have a long history of super leggy Mario games and only one leggy SM game. Not all evergreen IP is created equal.


so 6.3 mil in 2 weeks after opening with first day of 2.5 mil? That would be amazing sales.

I guess that's a really reasonable estimative unless you think the sales absolutely CRATERED after the first 24 hours. If it sold around 4 million first week, which is reasonable (and even a bit low) in comparison to other recent first party games. And had a ~50% drop second week that would still put it above 6 million.
 
I guess that's a really reasonable estimative unless you think the sales absolutely CRATERED after the first 24 hours. If it sold around 4 million first week, which is reasonable (and even a bit low) in comparison to other recent first party games. And had a ~50% drop second week that would still put it above 6 million.
How is a 50% 2nd week drop reasonable? Even  Mario had a bigger drop than that.
 
People are insane to take every little thing said somewhere at face value.

He just said in a new post that he only checked first week sales. Even then, i find it hard to believe. There is no way in hell Spider-Man 2 only sold under 4.3m copies in two weeks 😂
 
People are insane to take every little thing said somewhere at face value.

He just said in a new post that he only checked first week sales. Even then, i find it hard to believe. There is no way in hell Spider-Man 2 only sold under 4.3m copies in two weeks 😂
Looking at his post, Mario’s first week beating Spider-Man’s first week makes no sense. Harker has gotten stuff wrong before and I’m thinking he’s wrong now.
 
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