Super Mario Bros "Wonder" BOLD Prediction of 20mil Quarter Launch?!

[BTB123]

I voted 12-15m. I might switch up to the tier above but still not completely sold on the game. The biggest bummer for me is all the characters playing the same. I don't understand the point of having same characters in different designs.

Because people want to play as different looking characters. The badges offer these special abilities that some of the characters had in previous games like floating or jumping higher.
I've seen many people complain that there's no option for Yoshi to play normally like the other characters.

 

[Luke88]

Voted 18-20M, It's gonna be a Mario Christmas.

 

[kwaogh]

Because people want to play as different looking characters. The badges offer these special abilities that some of the characters had in previous games like floating or jumping higher.
I've seen many people complain that there's no option for Yoshi to play normally like the other characters.

Well to each their own but I feel it would add more variety and dynamism to the gameplay like SMB2. Then you could still have badges that do other things apart from replicating their play styles. To make it a bit simpler, they could have gone the mario kart or sport game routes where there are heavy, speed, tricky etc so there would be 3 or 4 types of characters.

Anyway, I doubt that will ultimately matter, back to sales, I have changed to 15-18m.

 

[LordBy28]

Well to each their own but I feel it would add more variety and dynamism to the gameplay like SMB2. Then you could still have badges that do other things apart from replicating their play styles. To make it a bit simpler, they could have gone the mario kart or sport game routes where there are heavy, speed, tricky etc so there would be 3 or 4 types of characters.

Anyway, I doubt that will ultimately matter, back to sales, I have changed to 15-18m.

There is always a give and take when it comes to those sort of situations. The level design of the game would have to be altered and changed dramatically to accommodate the different abilities. It would likely mean that they would have to sacrifice precision or certain game design elements to be able to allow a character that is slower/faster, heavier/lighter, etc. It could work like it did in 3D World but 2D Platformers are quite a bit different from their 3D counterparts. SMB2 was a bit more side scroller adventure than platformer which is why they were able to do that. I also feel that maybe always having the female Mario characters as a sort of easy mode is less appealing in this day and age.

 

[kwaogh]

There is always a give and take when it comes to those sort of situations. The level design of the game would have to be altered and changed dramatically to accommodate the different abilities. It would likely mean that they would have to sacrifice precision or certain game design elements to be able to allow a character that is slower/faster, heavier/lighter, etc. It could work like it did in 3D World but 2D Platformers are quite a bit different from their 3D counterparts. SMB2 was a bit more side scroller adventure than platformer which is why they were able to do that. I also feel that maybe always having the female Mario characters as a sort of easy mode is less appealing in this day and age.

Fair enough. You make some interesting points. Let's see how it plays out.

 

[Tbone5189]

Bringing the thread up for part 2. The post launch week discussion!

From what we seen the sales are huge with am estimated 3.5mil-4mil sell thru and possibly 5mil shipped? Low in comparison to TotK/etc but this is more holiday boosting game.

Thoughts?

 

[Kenka]

I still think the game will hit close to 16M in its debut quarter.

It will hit 25M once all is said and done.

 

[ItsOKAY]

A little bit off topic:

It sounds weird, but i think the marketing for TOTK was so much better than Mario Wonder. Mario Wonder was so non existing in the way how it felt how they marketed that game.


12-15 million

 

[Ruddlerstein]

A little bit off topic:

It sounds weird, but i think the marketing for TOTK was so much better than Mario Wonder. Mario Wonder was so non existing in the way how it felt how they marketed that game.


12-15 million

Wonder was marketed heavily.

 

[AruanaRiva]

I voted 15-18m and i am still positive for it to reach that namba lol. Mario+ Holiday is easy winning formula.

 

[Luke88]

A little bit off topic:

It sounds weird, but i think the marketing for TOTK was so much better than Mario Wonder. Mario Wonder was so non existing in the way how it felt how they marketed that game.


12-15 million

I visited a girl friend in a big-ish city in Italy last WE and she told me "By the way, I saw them advertising the new Mario game on the streets, I didn't know they advertised games on there!" (speaking of digital screens found on the sidewalks/side of the road) The marketing push is strong, at least here in Europe.

 

[cw_sasuke]

A little bit off topic:

It sounds weird, but i think the marketing for TOTK was so much better than Mario Wonder. Mario Wonder was so non existing in the way how it felt how they marketed that game.


12-15 million

Mario is the biggest character in gaming and they just coming of breaking endless software records on Switch and a billion dollar movie.

Marketing is strong enough, for a game that wasnt even on anyones radar until this summer for the system that was supposed to "die" this year.

TotK had years of hype, anticipation and is the open world sequel to the game that many considers to be the best game ever. There is no world where a 2D Mario is getting the same kind of traditional marketing targeting the core gamer audience than a new mainline 3D Zelda.

 

[Lelouch0612]

You are indeed right to say that Zelda had a stronger initial push than Mario.

However, the former is a game that will make 50% of its year 1 sales at launch, whereas Mario would do ~20%.

That means the marketing push for Wonder will be more spread out (and not necessarily weaker overall).

 

[kjtc1979]

You are indeed right to say that Zelda had a stronger initial push than Mario.

However, the former is a game that will make 50% of its year 1 sales at launch, whereas Mario would do ~20%.

That means the marketing push for Wonder will be more spread out (and not necessarily weaker overall).

Case in point: they’re still using Mario Kart 8 in commercials.

 

[kwaogh]

I bought it for the kids and I and it has been pretty cool playing with them and I can see why it is doing well. I would rank my favourite Mario games this way out of the ones I have played:

1. Super Mario Brothers 3
2. Super Mario Galaxy
3. Super Mario World
4. Super Mario Bros
5. New Super Mario Bros. Wii
6. Super Mario Wonder
7. Super Mario 64
8. Super Mario Bros 2
9. Super Mario Sunshine


Not sales related but a gripe I have. There is one major issue I have and I am surprised it has not come up more. You can't have more than 1 save per user? That is really weird as I now want to play solo but it means I have to delete the joint game I have with the kids. Why was that a good idea?

 

[Spikeylord]

I bought it for the kids and I and it has been pretty cool playing with them and I can see why it is doing well. I would rank my favourite Mario games this way out of the ones I have played:

1. Super Mario Brothers 3
2. Super Mario Galaxy
3. Super Mario World
4. Super Mario Bros
5. New Super Mario Bros. Wii
6. Super Mario Wonder
7. Super Mario 64
8. Super Mario Bros 2
9. Super Mario Sunshine


Not sales related but a gripe I have. There is one major issue I have and I am surprised it has not come up more. You can't have more than 1 save per user? That is really weird as I now want to play solo but it means I have to delete the joint game I have with the kids. Why was that a good idea?

I think it's fine because you can create new users really easily, and the limit seems fairly high at 8 users.

 

[Eternium]

Current Known Sales:
Japan - 801,810
France - 170,000
UK - 116,000
Spain - 87,000

The known physical sales are good so far!

 

[BTB123]

Current Known Sales:
Japan - 801,810
France - 170,000
UK - 116,000
Spain - 87,000

The known physical sales are good so far!

For France it's the first week and for the others it's the first two weeks.

 

[Luke88]

Current Known Sales:
Japan - 801,810
France - 170,000
UK - 116,000
Spain - 87,000

The known physical sales are good so far!

Given the population gap Spain is doing really well!

 

[ItsOKAY]

Mario is the biggest character in gaming and they just coming of breaking endless software records on Switch and a billion dollar movie.

Marketing is strong enough, for a game that wasnt even on anyones radar until this summer for the system that was supposed to "die" this year.

TotK had years of hype, anticipation and is the open world sequel to the game that many considers to be the best game ever. There is no world where a 2D Mario is getting the same kind of traditional marketing targeting the core gamer audience than a new mainline 3D Zelda.

Absolut valid points from you!
Even more when you see for how long people knew, a new Zelda was coming.

Still i felt i did not saw enough buzz coming from Nintendo itself to promote the game. Sure, the movie was just out - but just speaking for the game itself, it felt a little underwhelming - promotionwise.

But of course your points a good facts!

 

[Mekanos]

They gave Mario Wonder an entire Direct, so I would say its marketing was just fine.

 

[saicho]

I bought it for the kids and I and it has been pretty cool playing with them and I can see why it is doing well. I would rank my favourite Mario games this way out of the ones I have played:

1. Super Mario Brothers 3
2. Super Mario Galaxy
3. Super Mario World
4. Super Mario Bros
5. New Super Mario Bros. Wii
6. Super Mario Wonder
7. Super Mario 64
8. Super Mario Bros 2
9. Super Mario Sunshine

This just means you really need to play Super Mario Odyssey ASAP

 

[kwaogh]

This just means you really need to play Super Mario Odyssey ASAP

Yeah I know . I just tend to like 2d mario more. Its only Galaxy that I truly enjoyed out of the 3d ones as it was a bit snappier. However, I will most likely get Odyssey at a point as my daughter will probably like it and I can play with her or just watch her play.