Stellar Blade - Expectations (Please read staff communications)

How much will Stellar Blade sell in its first 30 days?

  • < 1 million

    Votes: 30 20.1%
  • 1–1.9 million

    Votes: 77 51.7%
  • 2–2.9 million

    Votes: 30 20.1%
  • 3–3.9 million

    Votes: 7 4.7%
  • 4–4.9 million

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 5+ million

    Votes: 5 3.4%

  • Total voters
    149
  • Poll closed .
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How ShiftUp plans to distribute and expand development resources:

>NIKKE Studio has 142 people as of filing, plans to expand to 160 by 2025.

>Stellar Blade studio has 98 people and plans to expand to 120 this year, to work on "IP expansion - DLC, Expansion packs, serialization etc."

>Team for New IP - For development of new works and purchase of IP, including Witches -> 150 people this year, 160 by next year

>Team for strengthening internal development capabilities with AI etc -> 10 people this year, 20 by 2025

>Plans to expand to 550 people by 2027. Right now, I think, is around 275 people.

summary from neha (resetera)
 
Im surprised, I thought they would be making a lot more, I forgot they aren't the publisher for Nikke. Their profit margin is good tho for that reason. I recall PUBG mobile is also published by multiple countries with Tencent handling global. Successful korean games could have benefited more with self publishing but I supposed this is just a wisdom of hindsight.
 
Interesting that they did not announce the numbers. But I think it should reach at least 1m at this point.
Highly likely contractual obligations same reason why KT just said ronin was selling faster than the nioh series and not actual numbers on their latest financial report

all we know nioh 1 manage to sold/ship 1m+ in 2 weeks so kinda points out ronin sold/ship 1m copies faster than 2 weeks
 
This may be a topic that could warrant a seperate post, but browsing Reddit, I came across a thread for this tweet:


Stellar Blade developer Shift Up! confirms both a PC version and a sequel are under consideration.
• Sales of #StellarBlade are "exceeding expectations"
• Studio will continue to expand AAA efforts and invest in new IPs moving into 2025
• New project 'Codename Witches' in development (cross-platform gacha game for PC, console, and mobile)
• Shift Up! is in the final stages of their IPO on the Korean stock exchange

Now this is important because to back his claims, the guy provided a link to what seems to be Shift Up's entire securities report as of May 20th. Confirmation from the CEO and all.


DART, short for Data Analysis, Retrieval, and Transfer, is the Financial Supervisory Service's electronic disclosure system companies use to transmit regulatory filings and ongoing disclosures via the Internet. In other words, it's a reposititory of Korea's corproate filings.

All of this to say that this inormation seems to be legit. I'm still going through it to verify some stuff, but there's probably a TON of information that's useful here.

Matters pertaining to the Issuer -> Contents of Business -> Other Notes -> New IP development
"AAA console titles such as God of War and Final Fantasy have shown tremendous potential, selling over 185 million and 66 million copies respectively. There are many precedents for AAA titles to evolve into IP franchises by extending their lifespan through a series of high-quality sequels and maintaining a long-term monetization base. As such, we are exploring the creation of a PC version and sequel to Stellar Blade."

They also seemingly plan to partially use the funds generated from the IPO to develop Stellar Blade DLC.
 
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How ShiftUp plans to distribute and expand development resources:

>NIKKE Studio has 142 people as of filing, plans to expand to 160 by 2025.

>Stellar Blade studio has 98 people and plans to expand to 120 this year, to work on "IP expansion - DLC, Expansion packs, serialization etc."

>Team for New IP - For development of new works and purchase of IP, including Witches -> 150 people this year, 160 by next year

>Team for strengthening internal development capabilities with AI etc -> 10 people this year, 20 by 2025

>Plans to expand to 550 people by 2027. Right now, I think, is around 275 people.

summary from neha (resetera)
I know you got it from ResetEra but the number doesn't add up for this.

142 + 98 + 150 + 10 = 400

the image doesn't load so I'm not sure if it provides more information.
 
I know you got it from ResetEra but the number doesn't add up for this.

142 + 98 + 150 + 10 = 400

the image doesn't load so I'm not sure if it provides more information.
do mind the witches project just started recruiting core staff a month ago , and they are saying they will make a team of 150 for it this year same with internal capabilities team of 10

numbers ain’t atm for both of them

also it’s a doc that was submitted to a transparancy system doubt they will mess with the numbers

here’s the submitted doc link in korean

 
This may be a topic that could warrant a seperate post, but browsing Reddit, I came across a thread for this tweet:




Now this is important because to back his claims, the guy provided a link to what seems to be Shift Up's entire securities report as of May 20th. Confirmation from the CEO and all.


DART, short for Data Analysis, Retrieval, and Transfer, is the Financial Supervisory Service's electronic disclosure system companies use to transmit regulatory filings and ongoing disclosures via the Internet. In other words, it's a reposititory of Korea's corproate filings.

All of this to say that this inormation seems to be legit. I'm still going through it to verify some stuff, but there's probably a TON of information that's useful here.

Matters pertaining to the Issuer -> Contents of Business -> Other Notes -> New IP development


They also seemingly plan to partially use the funds generated from the IPO to develop Stellar Blade DLC.

I’m glad Stellar Blade is doing well for them, but it’d be nice if they’d just share some damn numbers!!!
 
Somewhat surprising but then again it was literally the only noteworthy new release in April and looking at the YTD charts it's well below DD2 and FF7 which we know are around 2.5-3 million sellers.

It's still below Ronin too so overall sales seem to be in the 1-1.5 million range if I had to guess. Which was general consensus
 
Yeah it's very good (it's below skull and bones, it might not be "very" good), tbf it's the only new notable release
Skull and bones had 850k players first week of its released

ronin sold/ship faster than nioh 1 (which the number we have for nioh 1 was 1m+ in less than 2 weeks)

so ronin reached 1m+ in less than 2 weeks
 
Matt put more context on SB sales. I had no idea Prototype 2 ranked 1st at the time lol.



Not to take away anything from Stellar Blade - any title ranking 1st in US sales in any month is a great achievement - but it did have the lowest sales to lead an April since Prototype 2 ranked 1st in April 2012.
 
Without having prototype 2 sales numbers on that month this doesnt say much

also prototype 2 was released 24th of may , 2 days earlier than stellar blade
Ok but without knowing what the total sales were being number 1 in April doesn't tell us much either right?
 
Without having prototype 2 sales numbers on that month this doesnt say much

also prototype 2 was released 24th of may , 2 days earlier than stellar blade
<236K for Prototype 2 in April 2012

Mat is talking revenue so it's possible Stellar Blade launch was below that of Prototype 2 in units but above in revenue.
 
<236K for Prototype 2 in April 2012

Mat is talking revenue so it's possible Stellar Blade launch was below that of Prototype 2 in units but above in revenue.
It's the lowest April #1 since 2012, not including 2012.

Without having prototype 2 sales numbers on that month this doesnt say much

also prototype 2 was released 24th of may , 2 days earlier than stellar blade

Prototype 2 was April 24 when the tracking period was April 1-28, Stellar Blade was April 26 when the tracking period was April 7-May 4, so SB actually has more days (9 to 5).
 
It's the lowest April #1 since 2012, not including 2012.



Prototype 2 was April 24 when the tracking period was April 1-28, Stellar Blade was April 26 when the tracking period was April 7-May 4, so SB actually has more days (9 to 5).
Oh i didnt know they changed the way they track over the years
 
It's the lowest April #1 since 2012, not including 2012.



Prototype 2 was April 24 when the tracking period was April 1-28, Stellar Blade was April 26 when the tracking period was April 7-May 4, so SB actually has more days (9 to 5).
In revenue or sales? Because it cost 70$ and prototype was 60$ I guess
 

ShiftUp, which is preparing to go public, filed an amended securities report on April 20, disclosing operating revenue for <Stellar Blade>. <Stellar Blade> generated operating revenue of 6.3 billion won in April and 15.57 billion won in May. The total is approximately 22 billion won.

Shiftup recognized the amount settled to them by publisher Sony as sales revenue, not the actual sales revenue. The net sales revenue generated by the game is structured to be shared with SIE, and the ratio is not currently disclosed. As of May 2024, Shiftup recorded 45.9% of sales by service region in North America, 22.0% in Europe, 13.5% in Japan, and 18.5% in other regions.

However, it's safe to assume that Stellar Blade sold at least hundreds of thousands of copies on PlayStation. Since the list price of the game is 79,800 won, if we consider the 22 billion won in operating revenue, we can infer that it sold at least hundreds of thousands of copies depending on the settlement ratio.

In this regard, a game industry insider said, "Usually, the revenue distribution process does not end with the first round, and there are still additional settlements remaining to be made. If the final settlement is made and all sales are recognized as revenue, we can estimate that the company has sold more than 1 million copies."

Sales ratio
  • North America 45.9%
  • Europe 22.0%
  • Japan 13.5%
  • Other 18.5%

Japan's share is 13.5%, so maybe around 150k total copies sold there w/ DL included, so around a million global sales tracks. Also, ShiftUp received around 22,000 won per unit sold from SIE it seems.
 

ShiftUp, which is preparing to go public, filed an amended securities report on April 20, disclosing operating revenue for <Stellar Blade>. <Stellar Blade> generated operating revenue of 6.3 billion won in April and 15.57 billion won in May. The total is approximately 22 billion won.

Shiftup recognized the amount settled to them by publisher Sony as sales revenue, not the actual sales revenue. The net sales revenue generated by the game is structured to be shared with SIE, and the ratio is not currently disclosed. As of May 2024, Shiftup recorded 45.9% of sales by service region in North America, 22.0% in Europe, 13.5% in Japan, and 18.5% in other regions.

However, it's safe to assume that Stellar Blade sold at least hundreds of thousands of copies on PlayStation. Since the list price of the game is 79,800 won, if we consider the 22 billion won in operating revenue, we can infer that it sold at least hundreds of thousands of copies depending on the settlement ratio.

In this regard, a game industry insider said, "Usually, the revenue distribution process does not end with the first round, and there are still additional settlements remaining to be made. If the final settlement is made and all sales are recognized as revenue, we can estimate that the company has sold more than 1 million copies."

Sales ratio
  • North America 45.9%
  • Europe 22.0%
  • Japan 13.5%
  • Other 18.5%

Japan's share is 13.5%, so maybe around 150k total copies sold there w/ DL included, so around a million global sales tracks. Also, ShiftUp received around 22,000 won per unit sold from SIE it seems.

General expectation is around 1/3rd for a the money to go back to the dev/pub, so while this is a little lower it tracks. Might be some deals in there from all the Sony marketing that cost ShiftUp on returns per unit sale.
 
Would they consider this a success? $15 Million for a multiyear AAA production seems like a really small return

They want to diversify, I think if it was profitable it will be considered a success and helping grow their brand.

Otherwise before NIKKE, they had a fairly niche market and not well known, and relying just on one game is not necessarily sustainable.
 
Sony also put a lot of money into marketing, distribution and did a lot of development for the game.

If you look through the credits almost half of it is SIE
Wouldn't that just mean that the budget for the game is even larger than we might have thought before? With 1 million sales the total revenue is probably at most like $65 million right?

If the dev and marketing budget is huge then that seems like it would be even worse for the ROI
 
We do not know how the revenue share is calculated. Is it after a certain amount or from the first dollar? Most often publishers receive a disproportionate part or the revenue (many time all revenue) until a threshold is reached (an example is Remedy and Epic Games or People can Fly and SE).
So without knowing the contract we won’t be able to use this info to calculate sales.

Edit: The revenue share is vastly higher in May than in April. Games like this normally make the majority of their revenue through preorders and day one sales, so this could point towards Stellar Blade reaching the revenue share threshold with the first week of sales. I don’t believe sales were 2.5 times higher in May compared to April.
 
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The Note 1 item (the green text below the table) says that, for the month of April, certain sales volumes were not recognized as revenue to ShiftUp because of the settlement structure of ShiftUp's 2nd party contract with Sony. So, I wonder if a part of the Other Revenue in 2023 (5 billion won) is the advance payment (Minimum Guarantee) from Sony. Since developers usually receive MG when they sign an exclusive contract for development funds. And once the revenue from the game exceeds the MG, the revenue share contract kicks in. Hence, the mention that certain sales volumes in the first week were not recognized as revenue to ShiftUp.

And the article indicates there are additional settlements remaining to be made. So settlement data not being real-time is also an important point. Like, because of refunds, mobile publishers do not immediately settle payments to developers. If pre-purchase starts in March and settlement is made in April, and April's settlement is made in May, I think May's payment maybe hasn't even been settled yet...makes sense that May's revenue went up because April was the top pre-purchase month due to the demo. So there are still additional rounds of settlements to make.

Considering all that, I think it's pretty safe to assume actual sales were close to or exceeded 1 million copies.

Also, NIKKE made 30% more than Stellar Blade in the months of April and May combined, and that game is in its 15th and 16th months.
 

ShiftUp, which is preparing to go public, filed an amended securities report on April 20, disclosing operating revenue for <Stellar Blade>. <Stellar Blade> generated operating revenue of 6.3 billion won in April and 15.57 billion won in May. The total is approximately 22 billion won.

Shiftup recognized the amount settled to them by publisher Sony as sales revenue, not the actual sales revenue. The net sales revenue generated by the game is structured to be shared with SIE, and the ratio is not currently disclosed. As of May 2024, Shiftup recorded 45.9% of sales by service region in North America, 22.0% in Europe, 13.5% in Japan, and 18.5% in other regions.

However, it's safe to assume that Stellar Blade sold at least hundreds of thousands of copies on PlayStation. Since the list price of the game is 79,800 won, if we consider the 22 billion won in operating revenue, we can infer that it sold at least hundreds of thousands of copies depending on the settlement ratio.

In this regard, a game industry insider said, "Usually, the revenue distribution process does not end with the first round, and there are still additional settlements remaining to be made. If the final settlement is made and all sales are recognized as revenue, we can estimate that the company has sold more than 1 million copies."

Sales ratio
  • North America 45.9%
  • Europe 22.0%
  • Japan 13.5%
  • Other 18.5%

Japan's share is 13.5%, so maybe around 150k total copies sold there w/ DL included, so around a million global sales tracks. Also, ShiftUp received around 22,000 won per unit sold from SIE it seems.
I guess it is sold less than 1m then?
 
I guess it is sold less than 1m then?
As already mentioned could be any number between 700K-1M depending on the settlement ratio. If it has sold 1M maybe they are saving the announcement for the public listing. If so, we might get something by the end of this month.
 
The game was supply constrained in Japan and was the top seller on PSN in april and may so I should be higher than 1M worldwide
 
Would they consider this a success? $15 Million for a multiyear AAA production seems like a really small return

Gross revenue its a big success but platform, retail, and publishers take a huge cut. Usually we're used to the publisher owning the developer so the ROI is good, developer only is very risky as is unlikely to result in big payouts, which is why independent AAA devs existence pretty much always rely on active contracts/pub deals.
 
Gross revenue its a big success but platform, retail, and publishers take a huge cut. Usually we're used to the publisher owning the developer so the ROI is good, developer only is very risky as is unlikely to result in big payouts, which is why independent AAA devs existence pretty much always rely on active contracts/pub deals.
Is it a big success? I mentioned it earlier in the thread but Bayonetta 1 sold 1.35 million as a new IP back in 2010 and that wasn't seen as much of a success for either Platinum or Sega.

And as mentioned everywhere budgets have ballooned since the PS3 and 360 days.
 
Is it a big success? I mentioned it earlier in the thread but Bayonetta 1 sold 1.35 million as a new IP back in 2010 and that wasn't seen as much of a success for either Platinum or Sega.

And as mentioned everywhere budgets have ballooned since the PS3 and 360 days.

Bayonetta took 5 months to reach 1.35M.
If this is Apr and May sales, Stellar Blade did 1M+ in just over 1 month at full price $70.

DMCV is likely the top of the genre, with 2.7M in 6 months, most likely at full price.
 
Bayonetta took 5 months to reach 1.35M.
If this is Apr and May sales, Stellar Blade did 1M+ in just over 1 month at full price $70.
That's pretty disingenuous. It took "five months" because it didn't launch worldwide simultaneously. Those were as much full price sales as Stellar Blade.

But I hope PAMM is right and shift up discloses sales numbers as part of the IPO. Honestly I hope they disclose the budget as well then we won't have to guess if it's a big success. The numbers would speak for themselves
 
Just about what I and many expected. The real question is how much they can grow these sales by porting it to pc and cutting prices. These games usually aren't "evergreen" titles so I'm not expecting much tbh
 
Does anyone remember that Ampere Analysis, a research firm, estimated that it would sell over 4 million units at launch?
The information was not helpful after all.
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