Nier Automata - 37.67%
Resident Evil 7 - 28.97%
If you count all neighboring countries, Nier Automata has a better ratio. (Indonesia, China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam...)
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Stellar Blade - Expectations (Please read staff communications)
- Thread starter MegaBulborb
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Nier Automata - 37.67%
Resident Evil 7 - 28.97%
If you count all neighboring countries, Nier Automata has a better ratio. (Indonesia, China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam...)
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The threshold to success should be rather low.
Assuming a gradual increase of staff from 2019 (per press release 10 people worked on Stellar Blade) to the beginning of 2022 (100 people as stated by the Director) and 2,33 years of full production afterwards to release - together with a cost of 50000$ per developer and year (the median salary is 37000$ for devs in Seoul 2024) - the total production cost would amount to 17.650.000$. Now double this figure because of SIE staff, localization, voice over and marketing results in 35.300.000$.
And I do believe 1 million sales in a month should be possible, but even half a million at full price should be enough.
It’s no wonder PlayStation seeks developers and games in cheaper regions of the world. Make the same assumptions with California salary’s and the budget would more than triple.
Assuming a gradual increase of staff from 2019 (per press release 10 people worked on Stellar Blade) to the beginning of 2022 (100 people as stated by the Director) and 2,33 years of full production afterwards to release - together with a cost of 50000$ per developer and year (the median salary is 37000$ for devs in Seoul 2024) - the total production cost would amount to 17.650.000$. Now double this figure because of SIE staff, localization, voice over and marketing results in 35.300.000$.
And I do believe 1 million sales in a month should be possible, but even half a million at full price should be enough.
It’s no wonder PlayStation seeks developers and games in cheaper regions of the world. Make the same assumptions with California salary’s and the budget would more than triple.
I feel like this game along with Lies of P have the ‘Remedy Games effect’ where they can almost stand toe to toe with expensive first party AAA games, graphically because of how much cheaper division of labor is in their respective countries.
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My response to him was about his description of Nier as niche. I don't think Stellar Blade will be niche, but I don't think it will sell 8 million either.
Single player AAA game developed in USA/California are very risky nowdays. Which is why we are seeing less and less of them being developed, especially new IP.
This is where Japan toke full advantage since 2015, especially Capcom. And now South Korea/China are filling the gap as well in AAA SP space. Its amazin how things have turned around since PS3/360 days.
For that we would have to consider the opportunity cost tho, as it's a mobile/gacha developer with a game that make ridiculous amounts of money regularly while likely costing a fraction of what's Stellar Blade cost to develop.
But then again, I've also read that Stellar Blade was somewhat of a passion project from the team, trying to be part of the big league and making a big game that tells an entire story. So they may be more lenient with it not bringing in the same ROI in comparison to Nikke.
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I really wish developers would just say their budgets. We have seen wildly different number from Controls $50 Million to Callisto Protocols $160 Million to Spiderman 2 over $300 Million
But I find your napkin math severely underrating the costs. First I'm not sure how you're getting the median salary in Seoul. From quick google searches I'm seeing some wild ranges and different averages closer to $62K. Furthermore, from the Insomniac leak we saw that salaries and wages were roughly half of the total dev costs per year. So even if you assume 37K it would make more sense to say the cost per dev would be $74K and if salaries are higher then that you could be looking at more like $120-$140K per dev.
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I would love if the gaming industry were more like the movie industry in almost every way. Not only with budgets that are widely known, but also box office stats that are accurately reported every week.
And there's also the fact that how they announce stuff makes so much more sense. Movie gets greenlighted: press release saying so. Movie is close to release: trailer + marketing.
Why is it so difficult for publishers to go: we currently have development teams x, y and z working on games 1, 2 and 3.
Callisto was developed in California which explain $160m budget. It flopped because they needed to sell minimum of 4 million at full price to recover cost.
Stellar Blade higher end budget estimate is likely to be $50m all things considered.
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No that's what my post was saying. There is more to budget then just dev location. Amount of staff, amount of outsourcing, what are the overhead costs at the studio, marketing and royalty costs (Unreal 5 isn't free).
If you napkin math dev costs at a $120K per dev using the same napkin math as the other poster that makes the dev costs alone $42 Million. Then you need to add in marketing, distribution, royalty fees, etc. A budget estimate could easily be $75-$80 Million.
I don't think we should proclaim how low the costs are without knowing more about the actual dev cycle and associated costs.
What are you talking about? Movies don't release budgets either, those are estimates. And I suppose movies are easier to estimate or maybe there's more media coverage which is why we see more talk behind budget. Box office is basically like the Famitsu reports we get for every region. Once again, easier because money goes through theatres compared to retailers. Plus, we don't know what percentage goes to theatres in detail, once again only estimates. There are rumors that it differs per film and region. We also don't know the marketing costs nor digital/physical sales, streaming, so it's impossible to accurately calculate the profit per film.
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I took the median salary which amounts to roughly 50.000.000 Won. I do generally dislike averages for this kind of calculations because very low or very big salaries distort the average.
Secondly we shouldn’t use American numbers for the rest of the world. The system in the US burdens employers with absolute monstrous benefits for their employees.
The biggest part is health insurance wherein employees / employers in the US pay ungodly sums.
You may very well be right, that 50k is too low, but in most of the world employee cost ist generally not double the salary. Admittedly my knowledge is mostly based on small to mid companies across the EU (where I had to check numerous internal business documents because of my job), and Sift UP should fit the mid description.
My point was more that Stellar Blade doesn’t need 5 million or so copies sold at full price to break even. If the game sells 1 million in the first month both Sony and Shift Up should be happy.
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These are full AAA games. The relatively low wages of JP, SK (maybe CH?) and having the ability to make AAA games just as good as their Western counterparts has resulted in AAA games being more sustainable and profitable in those countries.
Its a simple consequence of global markets that we see in all industries where labor is cheaper and the gap is narrowed, countries add tariffs or demand trade deals with more local benefits etc.
That being said, one expects as the AAA industry grows in those countries for wages to increase, however, as we see with JP, wage suppression is very effective there and its a mature AAA market. Not a good thing imo.
I think SK is less like JP though, same with China, dev salaries should grow a fair bit.
It isnt too hard. I made a thread on this, once you know the years, number of peak devs and location costs can be worked out pretty well. The dev rate at the location is pretty common among numerous studios.
Overhead isn't just salary. Overhead for a company is usually 1.5-2x the salary an employee gets.
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I disagree. We know bayo 1 sold 2 million on the ps3 and 360 and platinum said that failed to meet their expectations. And that was with 2009 budgets!
Platinum Games president rates its sales as a "C or even a D."
Platinum Games president Tatsuya Minami is very satisfied with his studios' projects, but not so happy with its sales.
www.eurogamer.net
But Nintendo continues to make Bayonetta games and they still have low sales numbers, which shows that its enough sales to remain profitable even though it has a small base of customers.I disagree. We know bayo 1 sold 2 million on the ps3 and 360 and platinum said that failed to meet their expectations. And that was with 2009 budgets!
Platinum Games president rates its sales as a "C or even a D."
Platinum Games president Tatsuya Minami is very satisfied with his studios' projects, but not so happy with its sales.
I disagree. We know bayo 1 sold 2 million on the ps3 and 360 and platinum said that failed to meet their expectations. And that was with 2009 budgets!
Platinum Games president rates its sales as a "C or even a D."
Platinum Games president Tatsuya Minami is very satisfied with his studios' projects, but not so happy with its sales.
The bulk of Bayonetta's sales came from the bargain bin. It was a bomb on launch and saw its price reduced quickly. They didn't sell 2 million full price units. They sold like 1/4 of that.
Sales numbers for Bayonetta 2 and 3 (more so 3) were largely full price sales. Whether they were good or not is hard to know, we'll see what Nintendo does with the series. But it wasn't like the first game where the sales mostly bargain bin.
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According to this it shipped 1.35 million at or around launch so not sure where you are getting your info from. Those are from Sega so that would be MSRP right?
Sega Sammy Post Profits As Bayonetta Ships 1.35 Million
Sega Sammy posted full-year profits of ¥20.3 billion ($219.9 million), up from a loss of ¥22.9 billion ($248.4 million), as Bayonetta sold 1.35 million units to retail -- but the company still notes a "weak" Western market.
web.archive.org
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Shipped is probably the key word here.
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Sure but what else am I suppose to go off of?
Random guesses about how much sold at what price?
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We know it didn't meet Segas expectations and that it was hit with price cuts relatively soon.
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Yes but thats my point really. That if 1.35 million wasn't enough for SEGA back in the day how are we getting that a much more graphically intensive game in Stella blade has peanuts for a budget and doesn't need to sell at least a million?
It doesn't add up to me. That's what my main point was
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It depends really. We don't know how lofty Segas expectations were ... Squre Enix for example is often times expecting too much from some games and I don't think this always corrolates with the budgets.
My understanding is that publishers and retailers have had agreements that if a game had a low sell-through rate, then the publisher would reimburse retailers to allow quick and significant price reductions. If this hadn't been the case, then it would have been the retailers losing a lot of money on these quick cuts and it's not logical for retailers to operate like this; and there were a lot more publishers than just Sega who have run this model of quick price cuts on their games. As for the reason why publishers would agree to this, it's because retailers would be reluctant to buy a lot of stock for new games from the given publisher in the future, if retailers had to be ones carrying the burden of the financial risk. This is the result of a hype-driven industry where as many copies as possible must be sold as fast as possible, because a lot of big budget games are forgotten about within two months of release.
There is going to be price protection (depends on region but most Western regions have it as far as I know) so if a game needs to have its price reduced early to shift copies, the publisher absorbs a good chunk of the loss.According to this it shipped 1.35 million at or around launch so not sure where you are getting your info from. Those are from Sega so that would be MSRP right?
Sega Sammy Post Profits As Bayonetta Ships 1.35 Million
Sega Sammy posted full-year profits of ¥20.3 billion ($219.9 million), up from a loss of ¥22.9 billion ($248.4 million), as Bayonetta sold 1.35 million units to retail -- but the company still notes a "weak" Western market.web.archive.org
So games that immediately crater in price aren't automatically good in the West. The shipment doesn't mean pure profit in the publishers pocket. There has to be sell through. The Publisher will either buy back the copies or they will provision the retailer to drop the price and eat the losses so retailers can move the stock.
Nintendo also has different goals with 1st party and especially with core oriented productions. Providing more portfolio diversity and filling out release schedule are core tenets for them that seemingly don't apply for SIE or MS.
They also place an emphasis on nurturing relationships with specifically Japanese partners and the local industry that we don't see from other 1st parties, and as such have thrown Platinum specifically a lot of work and even handed them back a title's ownership (something MS has only done once iirc for Press Play, and SIE's never done).
That's not to say Bayo isn't profitable for Nintendo, if it wasn't I doubt they'd keep making them, but I do think their rationale is much wider than just making money on games like these. And that's also sort of a different place from most publishers and even the other first parties. End of the day Bayo didn't do well enough for Sega but it does for Nintendo despite them being a dramatically more commercially successful publisher.
The game is at least $50m. Very possibly $100m+. Even games like Bayonetta 3 on the Switch have 800+ ppl in the credits. Final Fantasy 16 had 3900+ and other AAA PS5 titles have similar numbers. Obviously those aren't all developers or people heavily involved, but I guarantee there are much more than 100 devs who worked on Stellar Blade. Even Nintendo claimed that they wanted at least 2 million copies to break even and this was right about the time Switch launched. 1 million would only be ok if Sony is not looking to profit from this game which seems unlikely. They would want at least 3m.
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A counterpoint: Returnal had 1,365 people (1,176 professional roles, 189 thanks) working on the game and made enough money that Sony was content with 560k units sold. They even bought Housemarque.
Classical XDev games by smaller studios shouldn’t have a budget of more than 100m.
Source: https://www.mobygames.com/game/163431/returnal/credits/playstation-5/
I'm not sure if I understood the message, but Sony purchasing Housemarque didn't mean that they (Sony) saw Returnal as successful sales-wise.
Housemarque was walking on the tightrope pretty much the whole PS4-gen, PlayStation was ramping up its 1st party studio headcount and Housemarque had a proven record of releasing generally well-received games with PS for the previous two generations. I would imagine these were the main factors for the acquisitions.
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And you are definitely correct. For Stellar Blade I also see some additional reasons for Sony publishing the game. They knew that their lineup would have a big hole, so releasing a game that pleases the core, older and male leaning, Asia loving fanbase is a pro. It gives their marketing and localization departments something to work on.
And maybe Stellar Blade could be a game that makes some sales in SK, Japan and Asia. It’s not that there are many game studios left that can produce exclusive games for PlayStation in the region.
"also have or intend to buy Final Fantasy VII:Rebirth"
Couldn't they have separated that statistic out to only those that already own Rebirth? Seems like a weird metric to ask. I get it's to see if there's an overlap in audience.
I glossed over the discourse over these past few months as it's clearly the director's passion project. But after seeing some of the other NPCs I'm sold. This is the first game that I would consider getting a PS5 for. Otherwise, Steam release when!??!
It’s not a 1:1 but Rift Apart was what 70-80 million? I don’t see Stellar Blade being a 100 million dollar game or even close to it. I’d probably put it in the same realm as AW2 at most
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i think sexy designs help but i think hers will hinder more than help, let be real, there's no separating this game from its controversy because that's directly proportional to the audience it pulls in, duded 30-50 are iirc like 90% of the people interested.
on top of being a niche genre its targeting a niche audience that will show up.
but wont give it any good tail, i think it launches to the tune of 1mil and over a couple years legs it to 2 or 3mil.
i do think once it launches the buzz will die down and the game will be forgotten about very quick;y, as without the sex appeal it's mediocre action game with nothing new to offer.
that's the difference between stellar blade and Nier. without niers sex appeal you have the apex of the Arpg genre with some of the best gameplay the apex of video game storytelling and one of the best soundtracks ever made. Stellar blade doenst have any of that, 2B is an amazingly written characters, stellar blade girl is basically not a character, her writing is awful, maybe the music could be amazing still later in the game but i doubt the story will evolve much.
the demos reception is essentially, its okay, it's not broken but its nothing special, which is why beyond the controversy I don't think it will break out. it knows the audience its aiming for, it will hit that audience but outside of that audience the appeal barely exists, its pretty much guaranteed to succeed but it wont be a big success. and furthermore I think the Wom will be negative, i dont turst this company at all to put out a good game. the story is garbage so far and the gameplay is passable. its not buggy but its not isnpired as a game on its own merit outside of sex.
Didn't realize this wasn't on PC day 1. In that case, I'd be surprised if it breaks 1 million in the first 30 days. Should be able to be successful given presumably lower dev costs given PC (or perhaps other platforms in future) would be a 2nd wave of sales.
Everyone I’ve seen complete the demo is raving about it. Even reading the Era thread there’s a lot of positive impressions on it outside of the back and forth about the problematic stuff
Uh only 69% are at the range of 30~44 as per circana idk where you get your data
also you are comparing a game you played whole to a game that only released <1 hour of gameplay
I don't usually play action games. Last game I think I've played that could compare is probably Astral Chain, but I did have fun with the demo. While I think Stellar Blade has very good buzz, I don't see that buzz really sticking around after the initial wave. I think part of the reason there is buzz in the first place is because no one actually expected the game to have decent combat tbh lol. Nier Automata was able to hang on as long as it did because, aside from the appeal of 2B, a lot of people did really like the themes of the story. And while people have their opinions on Eve's design, I don't see it being unique enough to really garner much interest outside the game itself (crossovers, cosplayers ect.)
Stellar Blade could of course get better narratively but just going by the demo, the narrative already felt pretty pieced together from what was supposed to be the actual beginning of the game. You're dropped in mid-mission, given about 10 minutes to care about Tachy and then the next big scene throws you randomly into being saved by Adam. Very much felt like you were missing that 20 minutes of VN storytelling that mobile devs are familiar with to build the lore of the story.
I see it sort of catching on like Lies of P, where it has its cult following and streamers will be eager to show off the toughest boss bouts, but even then Lies of P being a soulslike, you knew not to go in expecting something narratively important (though I liked the story). I don't know if anyone really knows what they expect from this game narratively. I do think Asia will do the heavy lifting as well.
I also don't think people should take internet controversies too seriously when it comes to what kind of affect it'll have. Supporting a game online is free and a lot of people involved made up their mind about the game a long time ago with or without the intention to buy. Stellar Blade's marketing campaign has been big simply because it's a graphically impressive game from a small studio and is exclusive. We've seen these same things for Kena, Sifu, Bugsnax, Final Fantasy in varying degrees, even Deathloop. It's not really a slam dunk for ridiculous sales. It reminds me of how people talk about how smart Sony was to foster a relationship with Hoyoverse (which they no doubt are) when I wouldn't be surprised if the PS5 playerbase was only 10% of Genshin and Honkai's overall player count.
Stellar Blade could of course get better narratively but just going by the demo, the narrative already felt pretty pieced together from what was supposed to be the actual beginning of the game. You're dropped in mid-mission, given about 10 minutes to care about Tachy and then the next big scene throws you randomly into being saved by Adam. Very much felt like you were missing that 20 minutes of VN storytelling that mobile devs are familiar with to build the lore of the story.
I see it sort of catching on like Lies of P, where it has its cult following and streamers will be eager to show off the toughest boss bouts, but even then Lies of P being a soulslike, you knew not to go in expecting something narratively important (though I liked the story). I don't know if anyone really knows what they expect from this game narratively. I do think Asia will do the heavy lifting as well.
I also don't think people should take internet controversies too seriously when it comes to what kind of affect it'll have. Supporting a game online is free and a lot of people involved made up their mind about the game a long time ago with or without the intention to buy. Stellar Blade's marketing campaign has been big simply because it's a graphically impressive game from a small studio and is exclusive. We've seen these same things for Kena, Sifu, Bugsnax, Final Fantasy in varying degrees, even Deathloop. It's not really a slam dunk for ridiculous sales. It reminds me of how people talk about how smart Sony was to foster a relationship with Hoyoverse (which they no doubt are) when I wouldn't be surprised if the PS5 playerbase was only 10% of Genshin and Honkai's overall player count.
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The game will easily pass the 1m. mark first week.
And it has a chance to do 10m+ LT.
And it has a chance to do 10m+ LT.
Huh, are there good comps for that? I'm surprised given N:A is only at 7.5mm with a lot of ports and 7 years of sales
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Calm down, not that big
N:A is at 8 millions
Nier: Automata sells 8 million as Tencent cancels mobile game and Yoko Taro says you've already had the third one anyway
So Nier and yet so far.
Gotcha, I didn't see that number. 500k in a year for an old game is good, but probably buoyed by the Switch port which was only a few months old in early 2023.N:A is at 8 millions
Nier: Automata sells 8 million as Tencent cancels mobile game and Yoko Taro says you've already had the third one anyway
So Nier and yet so far.www.pcgamer.com
Still, they'd have to keep that rate through 2028 (whoof) to hit 10mm, so the point on comp still stands.
Will be interesting to keep track of how it sells in relation to these games
- Nier Automata/Repliacent
- Metal Gear Solid Rising
- Lies of P
- Devil May Cry 4-5
- Bayonetta 2 & 3
- Sekiro
- Hi Fi Rush
- Scarlet Nexus
- Darksiders. 2 & 3
- Astral Chain
Voted for 3 to 3.9m in the first month.
Played through the demo twice. Love this game. It's basically Nier Automata/Devil May Cry. Based on the demo, graphics are a 9/10, audio is a 10/10 (soundtrack holy shit!!!), combat/gameplay is a 9/10. Love the platforming aspects and the hidden chests where you go underwater or climb stuff to get to a certain spot. Story and characters are the only thing that is up for debate with me since you barely know anything based on the demo.
Anyway, I went from renting the game via GameFly to where im buying the game day one digitally on PSN. I'm very hyped!!!
Played through the demo twice. Love this game. It's basically Nier Automata/Devil May Cry. Based on the demo, graphics are a 9/10, audio is a 10/10 (soundtrack holy shit!!!), combat/gameplay is a 9/10. Love the platforming aspects and the hidden chests where you go underwater or climb stuff to get to a certain spot. Story and characters are the only thing that is up for debate with me since you barely know anything based on the demo.
Anyway, I went from renting the game via GameFly to where im buying the game day one digitally on PSN. I'm very hyped!!!
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How much do you think it will do in the first month and would you like to make an avatar bet
Pretty much they have the eyes on them now if they land the full game doubt this wouldnt sell alot
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It has a 0% chance to sell 10+ million, come on. Even the biggest and critically acclaimed IPs in this genre (Nier, DMC) didn't touch that number. They aren't even particularly close with 8 (Nier Automata) and 6 (DMC V) million repsectively.
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good performance and optimization also so thats one less thing they have to worry about