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Stellar Blade - Expectations (Please read staff communications)

How much will Stellar Blade sell in its first 30 days?

  • < 1 million

    Votes: 30 20.1%
  • 1–1.9 million

    Votes: 77 51.7%
  • 2–2.9 million

    Votes: 30 20.1%
  • 3–3.9 million

    Votes: 7 4.7%
  • 4–4.9 million

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 5+ million

    Votes: 5 3.4%

  • Total voters
    149
  • Poll closed .

MegaBulborb

Member
Student
The demo is out. There is a lot of talk surrounding this game with a lot of different takes. The demo seems to have been received very well, but there is an overarching discussion with regard to this game. There is a lot of ardent supporters and haters of this game—even before release—and many people seem to be lost in the crossfire between these two camps.

However, no matter how you feel about this game, we’re here to predict how we think the game will perform.

Just remember this is a sales expectations thread and let’s not go into a full frenzy over marco issues surrounding this game. The mods would probably also appreciate it if this thread doesn’t devolve into “I love the assets vs. I hate the assets.”

Certain things to consider:

Will this game be similar to Nier: Automata where a lot of people were/are attracted to the game based on the sexy character designs? Ultimately, Automata had a long shelf life because of the quality of its story and characters, and other factors like a ton of community support through fan art and cosplayers—can Stellar Blade achieve this type of long term impact?

Will it be more like another Korean souls-like, Lies of P, where it’ll have a dedicated hardcore fanbase, but doesn’t reach big heights?

Will it be a streaming and YouTube hit like Sekiro and reach a sizable player base because of its challenging gameplay?

Will the “controversy” surrounding this game help it or hurt it? Will it have any effect?

Will critical reception, good or bad, have any effect on its sales?

Will word of mouth be key for this game’s success?
 
I know that there has been quite a bit of positive buzz recently, especially after the demp dropped. That said, hack and slash games rarely have big time success.

I don't see this game getting passed 2m copies sold.
 
Game looks great, seems to have its own unique combat that causes lots of people to need to rethink their expectations lol, and despite what some say very appealing, mainstream-compatible character designs. Still, in the sales-context it will be limited by being platform-exclusive for now and being a new IP in a genre that is "niche-popular".

I expect between 1 and 2 million for now on PS5, then potentiall 3+ mio LTD once it gets a PC-version (which seems likely to become a thing going by general expectations).

Definitely don't see a sub-1 mio result, too much positive demo-feedback for that. Would surprise me a lot.
 
The controversy around it should lift up its floor and lower the ceiling. It’s an mediocre to OK character action game with no chance of capturing the zeitgeist but a good chance at some ok sales. Not expecting positive wom to have entirely positive effects, because a good amount of it seems to be very weird and off-putting.

Less than a million, outside chance of million+, no chance of 2 million and beyond at launch.
 
Sony gave the game a lot of attention. I think the million is guaranteed. 2 million maybe with bundles, but I think it comes out on Plus first.

That said, the gameplay seems interesting, but the rest is a lot of embarrassment to please an audience that doesn't leave home. This can determine a positive amount of sales or not, it will depend on how viral the game manages to become.
 
After playing the demo, game has a real shot of being the Nier Automata of this generation. It needs to nail the story and there's still a question mark of how much there is in this game in locales, and length. The OST is already on its way to be one of the best this year.

1-2M first month, a great reception (80+) and there could be a surprise 2M+.
 
Sony gave the game a lot of attention. I think the million is guaranteed. 2 million maybe with bundles, but I think it comes out on Plus first.

That said, the gameplay seems interesting, but the rest is a lot of embarrassment to please an audience that doesn't leave home. This can determine a positive amount of sales or not, it will depend on how viral the game manages to become.
Can we not insult people who like a game? Or people who are in a sad state where they cannot leave their home? Ugh.

He said doesn't not can't. People physically incapable of leaving their homes are different from people who live online enough to not want to leave their homes. The current crowd I see supporting it on social media seem like the type that turn off everyone that isn't them and that will harm the word of mouth.
Which is a whole lot of people from all ways of life. If you can't criticize a game without insulting people, it might be better to not say anything. Fwiw, sales of Hogwarts Legacy did benefit from what I'd assume are "the type that turn off everyone that isn't them" wom, so strictly adhering to past experience with such situations, it's more an argument in favor of Stellar Blade doing well in numbers. Ofc, I don't think it's exactly comparable consdering this is a new IP very THE Harry Potter-franchise.
 
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Can we not insult people who like a game? Or people who are in a sad state where they cannot leave their home? Ugh.
He said doesn't not can't. People physically incapable of leaving their homes are different from people who live online enough to not want to leave their homes. The current crowd I see supporting it on social media seem like the type that turn off everyone that isn't them and that will harm the word of mouth.

All the critical reception I've seen of the game seems to make it out to be worse Sekiro with more of a sex doll aesthetic. Like there's ways to do horny competently (Bayonetta, Nier Automata, Dragon Age Inquisition and Baldur's Gate III) but, a lot of the game seems like a more polished version of that Haydee game rather than the aforementioned titles. That isn't necessarily a death sentence but, it will cap the sales to significantly lower than the market leaders in the character action genre. 2 million will be the cap before a discounted PC version.
 
After playing the demo, game has a real shot of being the Nier Automata of this generation. It needs to nail the story and there's still a question mark of how much there is in this game in locales, and length. The OST is already on its way to be one of the best this year.

1-2M first month, a great reception (80+) and there could be a surprise 2M+.
I dont know if critical reception will matter all that much, to be honest. There's way too much discourse around the title and I personally think that it'll seep it's way into some reviews (I've seen Unicorn Overlord get docked one or two points by some reviewers for its female character designs, there's no way Stellar Blade's escaping unscathed). I personally doubt it, but if it can get an 80+ then that'd be interesting.

I've also heard it's more of a Soulslike than a hack-and-slash, as well, actually, so there may be a bit of an audience mismatch there? I dunno, I havent played the demo. Regardless, though, it'll have to rise above being known for the fanservice if it wants to make a long-term impact. Nier Automata had 2B (who IMO is a lot more subtle than Eve) but it remains relevant and beloved because it's story, characters, and gameplay were all very-well recieved.
 
I think that it will sell to a bigger playstation audience but will not expand the market beyond playstion. People will not buy a PS5 for this game.

And there is zero controversy outside the gaming bubble. I am a person who "leave home" and have a fiancé. I also bought Atelier Ryza only because of the char design.

So, I would buy Stellar Blade if this was a Switch game, but I will not buy a playstation 5 just for this game, who looks fun, to be honest.

3,75 million in the first month.
 
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Early impressions are really good. It depends on WoM and reviews, but I think 1 - 2M is a safe bet. PS will also give it a huge marketing push.

A PC SKU would be needed for more sales in the long term.
 
Its doing well on Amazon and PSN, it shot up to number one on the preorder page and its been hovering in the top 5 up until previews and the demo. Now with the controversy it seems do be even higher.

#19, on Amazon best sellers in games, number one on Amazon US in PS5 games. I think it will easily do 2 mill. Unlike a lot of character action games lately, this one actually seems really polished and big budget and theres no big competition for it in April.


I honestly see it outselling Bayonetta 3, even with middling scores
 
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They really need to nail the story aspect also a day 1 patch to reduce the lag if they do that WoM would be great

this game wasn't on my radar until nikke launched and me trying it out for memes but ending up loving it because of the story
 
Unless I'm missing something, Stellar Blade looks to be the biggest PS5 game of the entire Apr-Jun quarter so it should perform quite well (in its first 2-3 months) due to that alone.
 
Unless I'm missing something, Stellar Blade looks to be the biggest PS5 game of the entire Apr-Jun quarter so it should perform quite well (in its first 2-3 months) due to that alone.
This year's shedule looks quitte empty starting this quarter for PS5.

There is not nothing but it doesn't seam there is anything really big before EA Sports FC 25 release in fall.

So yes that context will help Stelar blade.
 
World wide, it might hit between 1m-and 1.9m. I can't really see it going farther than that.
It's the regional break down that gets interesting in my view. The state of affairs in the PlayStation ecosystem lean it to have a heavy buy-in in the US, carrying most of the units. The EU (+ UK) will likely be short of that but not by much... I really, really wonder what goes on in Asia as a whole, because Japan just feels like a loss at the moment and I don't see South Korea being much better and things just go south from there.

This is also a title that I suspect to be a one week wonder, making most of it's lifetime units in that period... but then that is a lot of titles to be honest.
 
This game isn't going to sell much more than 500K at launch.

And the reason why it would or might sell 500K is due to marketing and fan service. Its a $70 single player game. Really hard to see it sell much more unless the reviews come out and thre are a lot of 9s.

I am familiar with Korean/Chinese games and overall their features might not be as good as people might expect them to be as its the first AAA Korean action game for Playstation gamers.
 
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If it was a PS5+PC multiplat it'd break a million easily. But as a PS5 exclusive? It'll either be sub a million or 1-2 million.
 
I know that there has been quite a bit of positive buzz recently, especially after the demp dropped. That said, hack and slash games rarely have big time success.

I don't see this game getting passed 2m copies sold.

Gameplay is more like a Soulslike than a Bayonetta/DMC to be honest.
 
On the contrary, the game is not the target of Sony players but it can please players who like Persona, Nier...this means that Stellar Blade will flop in the West, it will need help from Asia.

If Stellar Blade makes 1 million copies in 30 days that would already be an achievement.
 
Compare to Nier is overreach, I don’t see any depressing porn like what Yoko can do, just straight up wanna be sexy and gore genre (see: Oneechanbara).

Gameplay is ok though.
 
I think that it will sell to a bigger playstation audience but will not expand the market beyond playstion. People will not buy a PS5 for this game.

And there is zero controversy outside the gaming bubble. I am a person who "leave home" and have a fiancé. I also bought Atelier Ryza only because of the char design.

So, I would buy Stellar Blade if this was a Switch game, but I will not buy a playstation 5 just for this game, who looks fun, to be honest.

3,75 million in the first month.

3.75m in 30 days is extremely optimistic. Heck, 3.75m lifetime is very optimistic.
 
The game is excellent from what I have played, and from the huge buzz it has caused on social media, good or bad, I can see it breaking the 2.5-3 million copies.
 
Unless I'm missing something, Stellar Blade looks to be the biggest PS5 game of the entire Apr-Jun quarter so it should perform quite well (in its first 2-3 months) due to that alone.
Sea of Thieves is out a few days later. May is normally empty aside from maybe one big title at the end and that title looks to be the Multiversus relaunch this year. June also has D2: The Final Shape and ER: Shadow of the Erdtree, which are technically not games but, are big expansions to major hits. A weak Spring doesn't particularly result in favorable sales for March/April releases as those still follow typical sales curves anyways.
 
I think that the game has a lot going for it that a lot of similar games don't. It appeals both to Nier fans and Souls fans, has a popular character, and feels surprisingly high budget. Something like Lies of P only has one of those things going for it, though that was also multiplatform.

Overall I could see it doing 1.5-2.0m in the first few weeks. The marketing and quality seems fairly comparable to something like Bloodborne on release, where it gets a lot of coverage but not as much as more mainstream releases. I personally found the demo pretty mid though.
 
You know what this reminds me of? FF16. That game also had a positive reception with the demo release. Both PS5 exclusive, and have similar vibes. So I think it would do slightly less than FF for being a new IP. I predict ~2m in the first month
 
I think it will do quite well, maybe even reaching 2mi first month due to it having quite a bit more meat to it than the usual stylish-action like. With bigger areas to explore in addition to the more stage-like areas.

Also, the controversy over the main character's design is making sure it isn't going under anyone's radar.
 
I think it will ship 1 million in a month, maybe more if blow up with Souls streamers.

The demo is pretty well received and the talk about the design bring a lot of discussion
 
3.75m in 30 days is extremely optimistic. Heck, 3.75m lifetime is very optimistic.
Perhaps.

I do not have too much data to back this up. Just training a model for fun but we have insufficient data.

So I just thought: I bought Ryza because of the char design and Atelier Ryza became the most successful Atelier game. Then I based my prediction around this.

When I do not have too much data, I just extrapolate what I would do.
 
That would be insane, pretty sure that would be a faster sales pace than FFVII Rebirth.

Why do people keep referencing imaginary Rebirth numbers in these threads when we got Remake and XVI if we want to make accurate comparisons to a 3rd party exclusive?

It’d make even more sense to compare it to other character action games like Lies of P (which also happens to be from a similar size Korean studio) or Bayo 3
 
Why do people keep referencing imaginary Rebirth numbers in these threads when we got Remake and XVI if we want to make accurate comparisons to a 3rd party exclusive?

It’d make even more sense to compare it to other character action games like Lies of P (which also happens to be from a similar size Korean studio) or Bayo 3
3.75 million would be faster than XVI too. Lies of P is probably the better standard, which sold 1 million in about a month. Doing that well would be in the realm of reasonable expectations.
 
3.75 million would be faster than XVI too. Lies of P is probably the better standard, which sold 1 million in about a month. Doing that well would be in the realm of reasonable expectations.
We also don't know that because we don't know how much XVI sold in a month.
 
Why do people keep referencing imaginary Rebirth numbers in these threads when we got Remake and XVI if we want to make accurate comparisons to a 3rd party exclusive?

It’d make even more sense to compare it to other character action games like Lies of P (which also happens to be from a similar size Korean studio) or Bayo 3
Even something in the realm of any of the recent Final Fantasy games (2.5-3.5M sold in launch week) would be nothing short of excellent for Stellar Blade.
 
We also don't know that because we don't know how much XVI sold in a month.
If FFXVI did 3.75 million in a month, we'd know because it would have been sold out by their announcement of the 3 million milestone and Square would have announced a higher milestone at some point. It would have been barely trailing FF7 Remake and Square Enix needed more good news after Forspoken and their mobile efforts floundering.
Another comparison point would be RE4 Remake had sold 3 million in 2 days and 4 million in 2 weeks and the 5 million milestone 4 months in. Hitting 3.75 million in a month is absurdly strong for new and niche IP.
 
Come out of your bubble, this game will surely have an even worse launch than Rise Of The Ronin.

Metacritic won't change anything, it's the genre that doesn't appeal to mass audiences.

Stellar Blade and Returnal certainly have the same objective, 1 million copies after a few months would already be a big success
 
Soulslike are pretty popular these days and the game its not full linear like Bayonetta, there are open areas and RPG elements
 
FF Rebirth proves that just a high MC doesn't mean sales.

Hell even bayonetta showed that already.

People are falling for the hype cycle again
 
and despite what some say very appealing, mainstream-compatible character designs.
"Despite the legitimte concerns of some in regards of this sexist character design made by a developer with a history of the mistreatment of women, it's really great!"


On topic: I think we should not confuse the online discourse with actual interest of many to buy a 70$/80€ game in a niche genre by an rather unproven developer.

I doubt this will make it to 2 million over its lifetime. I expect between 500k and 800k in the first month. But maybe Sony marketing is pushing it beyond that.

I also think this will swim in 7s, so that won't help much either.
 
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FF Rebirth proves that just a high MC doesn't mean sales.

Hell even bayonetta showed that already.

People are falling for the hype cycle again
Rebirth its a sequel for a Remake.

This is a new game, a high score onMetacritic can really help, it helped Baldurs Gate 3, Hades, Persona 5 and many other games
 
This is a new game, a high score onMetacritic can really help, it helped Baldurs Gate 3, Hades, Persona 5 and many other games
This game won't score anything near those though, they're all 90+.
 
"Despite the legitimte concerns of some in regards of this sexist character design made by a developer with a history of the mistreatment of women, it's really great!"
Not only is it completely shitty to attack me like that, you also entirely misconstrued what I wrote. I was replying to those people who claim that the designs of this game are so offputting that it will negatively impact sales. When we know from games like Nier Automata or Xenoblade 2 that sexy designs are usually helpful for sales.

Not one part of my posting was defending any potential misbehavior at the development studio of the game. As for "sexist character design", I fundamentally disagree that attractive character designs are objectively "sexist". That's just your opinion, but no justification to attack me (which, again, I hadn't even commented on until your posting brought it up).
 
I fundamentally disagree that attractive character designs are objectively "sexist". T
She's not just an "attractive character", we have tons of those. She's basically a walking sex doll made entirely for the male gaze, devoid of an personality, practically naked in some outfits, full of exploitative camera angles, jiggle physics and infantilization. I assumed, based on the part in your post I quoted that you either didn't notice or care, because it read very disnissively in terms of those problematic elements, which are inseparable linked with the problems the studio itself are riddled with.

If you don't want to be "attacked" (it's not like I was insulting you or got personal) than I would advice you to take a closer, more critical look. This game isn't used by the alt-right and by incels online as a weapon against "wokeness' for no reason.
 
I was replying to those people who claim that the designs of this game are so offputting that it will negatively impact sales.
My comment ("Not expecting positive wom to have entirely positive effects, because a good amount of it seems to be very weird and off-putting.") isn’t about the character itself even though I don’t like it but rather the supposedly positive word of mouth that’s gonna be off-putting to a lot of people. It’ll sell some people on it, but others will be pushed away with most of this positive word of mouth being “we can all jack off to this brilliant game to defeat the woke mind virus;” that has a ceiling and it’ll push a lot of people away. It was trying to not go deep into it, but that's just what a significant amount of the positive discourse attached to this game is like.

It’ll help sales in a way, because it's still discourse and lead to people finding out about the game, but it'll also cap sales because even though hostile culture war sells it is by definition still exclusionary.
 
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