Square Enix output strategy | Discussion thread.

[Remember_spinal]

Didn't work out so well for Bethesda. PlayStation secured Deathloop and Ghostwire Tokyo and were working on getting Starfield and all that did was light a fire under Xbox.

Not that I think the Bethesda deal had anything to do with Sonys moneyhats but im sure starfield still being up for grabs as a console exclusive was much more attractive to Microsoft than the former two. I’m not even sure why they bothered securing deals for Deathloop and Ghostwire, it did nothing for them this past year.

 

[Tiddums]

Not that I think the Bethesda deal had anything to do with Sonys moneyhats but im sure starfield still being up for grabs as a console exclusive was much more attractive to Microsoft than the former two. I’m not even sure why they bothered securing deals for Deathloop and Ghostwire, it did nothing for them this past year.

Thinking about it, I suppose the deals would have been struck in 2019 at some point. Pre-chip crisis, pre-covid demand spikes and so on. They probably dramatically overestimated how much exclusive software they'd need to keep momentum high and secure an early lead.

In terms of "why them?" I would speculate that the price was simply low. The last games from these studios didn't do great, so Bethesda probably wasn't projecting huge sales. Dishonored 2 underperformed, TEW2 flopped, and the company was in a bit of a tight spot fiscally after F76.

 

[Blue Monty]

Not that I think the Bethesda deal had anything to do with Sonys moneyhats but im sure starfield still being up for grabs as a console exclusive was much more attractive to Microsoft than the former two. I’m not even sure why they bothered securing deals for Deathloop and Ghostwire, it did nothing for them this past year.

Look at how many mid-high end exclusives PS5 has had last year (especially in 2021), both Bethesda games allowed Sony to fill the ps5 exclusive schedule while they were still in a cross-gen period for their big 1st party games. It's not only about sales when it comes to platform holders and exclusivity deals, it's also about allowing them to have a constant flow of exclusive content for their platform.

 

[enpleinjour]

In regards to FFXVI sales - I think Square Enix may be relying somewhat on the star power of Yoshi-P and the success of FXIV to sell FFXVI. Theres a substantial built in fan base carrying over from outside of the typical FF fanbase.

Theory:

I think S-E is probably satisfied collecting Sony-Epic checks for their AAA games. Part of me feels like this is Sony simply reserving their spot for a future acquisition. Put in so many timed exclusivity offers it poisons the well for other companies to jump on Square.

I can’t imagine why else Sony would be spending so much money specifically with Square Enix and no other big Japanese companies. They are buying up marketing for all the big games but no timed exclusivity. Sony really wants the Final Fantasy brand associated with Playstation and they are paying an outrageous amount of money to make it happen.

If another company wanted to buy square enix they’d be getting almost none of their major releases for the next 2+ years, and thats just the deals we currently know about.

I feel like the only reason this could be happening is because Sony wants XIV. They can take it, greatly expand its servers, put it on mobile, maybe even switch and xbox, and continue to grow it. I don’t think SE have the means of doing all that themselves at the moment, but I think sony see’s the potential numbers behind it. It would be their only major MMO

It could be interpreted in both ways:

• Sony finds no need to buy SE since they're able to get exclusivity on nearly their entire AAA output.
• Sony is very interested in buying SE for permanent exclusivity of its IP

Sony wants Square Enix's AAA RPGs, FF, KH, Nier, DQ. A AAA RPG studio is increasingly rare these days, there are pretty much just a handful and compared to them, SE has a large output. They have around 5-6 AAA RPG ready teams.

FF14 is definitely a tipping point. Would not be surprised if it brings in $400-500M a year, which would easily put it in the Top 10, close to Top 5 console/PC GaaS titles in the world. Having Bungie and FF14 alone would put Sony in a very strong GaaS position.

 

[ILikeFeet]

there's always the option of not-SIE Sony buying Square Enix. but I don't see that as likely, not without public declaration of being on the market, anyway

 

[Abzeronow]

Well it technically is a summer game.

 

[Jimmy Joe]

What was the PS4 installbase at when FFXV launched?

 

[TheSilentWombat]

What was the PS4 installbase at when FFXV launched?

It was around 50 million WW and 3.7 in Japan

 

[Jimmy Joe]

It was around 50 million WW and 3.7 in Japan

Thank you!

So assuming that the PS5 sells 18 million in the next fiscal year and FF16 launches in November, PS5 might not be too far off from the PS4's numbers at that time. Maybe.

 

[Blue Monty]

Thank you!

So assuming that the PS5 sells 18 million in the next fiscal year and FF16 launches in November, PS5 might not be too far off from the PS4's numbers at that time. Maybe.

Yes but FFXV also released on Xbox One and while it didn't sell as well there than PS4 still was a factor sales wise worldwide, I'd imagine that FFXVI being market as the biggest PS5 3rd party exclusive atm will help a lot sales though

 

[Jimmy Joe]

Yes but FFXV also released on Xbox One and while it didn't sell as well there than PS4 still was a factor sales wise worldwide, I'd imagine that FFXVI being market as the biggest PS5 3rd party exclusive atm will help a lot sales though

It well might, worldwide! Though I wonder if the impact of being the biggest 3rd party exclusive might be lighter than it was on the PS3 or PS4, given how much more first-party-centric the Playstation environment has become in the last decade or so

I still don't have high hopes for Japan. It feels like the PS5 will have trouble reaching 3.7m by the time XVI launches, and the software sales on the PS5 have been so dreadful that FFXV numbers may be unattainable regardless of install base

 

[Abzeronow]

I posted about it in the MC thread (because I didn't want to double post) but Final Fantasy XVI is taking cues from Kingdom Hearts for battle systems it appears

Final Fantasy 16 has “fully AI-driven” party members in battle

"But that doesn't mean that they will just be there in battle"

www.gamesradar.com

It does fit the whole Action RPG thing, but solely controlling Clive might be less fun than being able to switch who you're controlling like Ys or Final Fantasy VII Remake.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Players will be completely overwhelmed if you throw a DMC5 style combat system at them then multiple other playable characters on top of that.

 

[Remember_spinal]

It well might, worldwide! Though I wonder if the impact of being the biggest 3rd party exclusive might be lighter than it was on the PS3 or PS4, given how much more first-party-centric the Playstation environment has become in the last decade or so

I still don't have high hopes for Japan. It feels like the PS5 will have trouble reaching 3.7m by the time XVI launches, and the software sales on the PS5 have been so dreadful that FFXV numbers may be unattainable regardless of install base

On the first point, this game is being marketed and treated as a first party title. Kind of like Monster Hunter Rises was.

Unlike Hogwarts or Callisto Protocol that is blatantly being treated as a marketing deal, and also cross-gen, FFXVI is unique in the fact that it might very well be the highest selling PS5 exclusive game to date, without a doubt it will be.

…Unless of course Spider-Man 2 beats it to launch.

 

[Dakota Joestar]

Not that I think the Bethesda deal had anything to do with Sonys moneyhats but im sure starfield still being up for grabs as a console exclusive was much more attractive to Microsoft than the former two. I’m not even sure why they bothered securing deals for Deathloop and Ghostwire, it did nothing for them this past year.

Deathloop was originally a launch title for the system, but the game got delayed twice which pushed 10 months after the release of the console.

I think had Deathloop been there at launch, the game would have likely performed a lot better. Since it would have basically been the only brand new AAA that wasn't non-cross gen or remake for the PS5 at launch.

Thank you!

So assuming that the PS5 sells 18 million in the next fiscal year and FF16 launches in November, PS5 might not be too far off from the PS4's numbers at that time. Maybe.

By the time, FF16 releases next summer it will have been a smaller gap in time (albeit just by a few months) from the release of the console and game then was the release of the PS4 and the release of FF15. So that should also put in perspective where Square should be hoping Sony is at with the PS5 install base when FF16 launches.

 

[Abzeronow]

For the moment, there doesn't appear to be an English version of the Shareholders Meeting report on the Square Enix site but apparently NFT and Blockchain were discussed at it:

Square Enix Plans to Create "Story-Focused" NFTs

Square Enix President Yosuke Matsuda discussed the future of NFTs created by the company, which included Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest.

www.siliconera.com

 

[Abzeronow]

NieR Automata had performance issues on base PS4 hardware with framedrops as it targetted 60 fps. https://www.pushsquare.com/news/201...me_performance_issues_on_both_ps4_and_ps4_pro

Even if they decided to target 30 fps for the Switch, it's possible that Automata wouldn't run well on the Switch which is significantly less powerful than a PS4. Dane would be a better fit for Automata especially with DLSS allowing it to punch above its weight. And it's possible Square Enix has very ambitious plans for the NieR brand and Nintendo would not be the right fit for it.

I also disagree with the notion that Square Enix refuses to port to the Switch when they've ported quite a few titles to the Switch already.

Six months later, I'm prepared to eat humble pie if NieR Automata does manage to get a Switch port. I still think NieR 3 will be a PS5 exclusive.

 

[ILikeFeet]

new Rune Factory styled game, Switch and PC

 

[Dakota Joestar]

Dragon Quest Treasures seems to be an Switch exclusive. I can't find anything that indicates its a multiplat. Guessing at least the remake of 3 is an exclusive to Switch as well.

 

[Abzeronow]

Dragon Quest Treasures seems to be an Switch exclusive. I can't find anything that indicates its a multiplat. Guessing at least the remake of 3 is an exclusive to Switch as well.

Yup, it's a Switch exclusive. Looks like Square Enix is publishing it worldwide. Might have interesting implications if this isn't limited to DQ spinoff games in the future.

 

[Tungsten]

Dragon Quest Treasures seems to be an Switch exclusive. I can't find anything that indicates its a multiplat. Guessing at least the remake of 3 is an exclusive to Switch as well.

Not that it was a serious post, but I remember pointing out retailers only had a NSW SKU for Treasures. I had floated the idea DQIII HD-2D could also be at least a timed exclusive, being published by Nintendo outside of Japan as typical for both Asano and DQ games, but SE publishing WW for Treasures was certainly unexpected and gives me a little pause.

 

[Abzeronow]

I'm eating crow today because I never thought this would happen. Probably gonna be a Day 1 for me. The Digital Foundary video should be very illuminating.



30 fps confirmed.
720p handheld/ 1080p docked

 

[TheWon]

It seems Square decided to use Switch for extra revenue. Until the next batch of Final Fantasy game’s release in 2023.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Automata but not replicant is just baffling.

 

[Renmazuo]

Automata is far, far more successful so I don't think it's that baffling

 

[Dakota Joestar]

Automata but not replicant is just baffling.

I wouldn't be shocked if Replicant is planned, but won't release for another year at least.

 

[Tungsten]

I wouldn't be shocked if Replicant is planned, but won't release for another year at least.

IIRC, Switch settings were found in Replicant. A simultaneous reveal would have probably been best, but Automata first makes sense. Replicant is the kind of thing that ends up in a sizzle real later.

 

[Golden Darkness]

So Star Ocean 6 will launch October 27.

 

[Remember_spinal]

Square enix is releasing like 5 games in october

 

[ILikeFeet]

Square enix is releasing like 5 games in october

dang, I didn't know SE was doing battle royales

Spoiler

yes, I know about first soldier

 

[Blue Monty]

Square enix is releasing like 5 games in october

Nier Automata (Switch)
Forspoken (PS5/PC)
Star Ocean 6 (XB/PS/PC)
(there is also Harvestella Nov 4)
I don't see them competing for sales between each other that much really all have their own target audience

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I dont think Star Ocean and Forspoken are different enough to justify the proximity, they’re targeting JRPG players. I know its a broad genre but still.

Granted, theres probably no “good” release window for SO, its likely to bomb no matter what,

 

[Oregano]

My personal bias as a fan of stuff like Rune Factory but Harvestella is one of the most interesting projects out of a major publisher in a long time.

I dont think Star Ocean and Forspoken are different enough to justify the proximity, they’re targeting JRPG players. I know its a broad genre but still.

Granted, theres probably no “good” release window for SO, its likely to bomb no matter what,

I think Valkyrie Elysium comes off even more redundant tbh, as a spin off of a series that wasn't an action RPG. The joint promotion with SO6 they're doing in Japan implies the releases will be close too.

 

[Remember_spinal]

Nier Automata (Switch)
Forspoken (PS5/PC)
Star Ocean 6 (XB/PS/PC)
(there is also Harvestella Nov 4)
I don't see them competing for sales between each other that much really all have their own target audience

Also we’re still waiting to see where Valkyrie Elysium and Diofield land. I don’t think they are overlapping so much but still…its a LOT of games

 

[enpleinjour]

SE imo is stacking releases to their own detriment. While the games are low budget and most are outsourced, games like Star Ocean and Valkyrie would do a lot better with more money and time invested in them. Its a shame they haven't learned from Nier, where a quality AA title can become a tentpole or breakout hit.

 

[WD-M01]

Edit: wrong thread.

 

[Remember_spinal]

SE imo is stacking releases to their own detriment. While the games are low budget and most are outsourced, games like Star Ocean and Valkyrie would do a lot better with more money and time invested in them. Its a shame they haven't learned from Nier, where a quality AA title can become a tentpole or breakout hit.

I guess they’re hoping so many exclusive platform releases will market themselves.

Forspoken & Valkyrie Elysium (possibly) - Playstation exclusives that will be marketed by Sony

Nier and Harvestella - Nintendo exclusives that will be marketed through Nintendo

Star Ocean 6- will be the biggest casualty. I think it also has Sony marketing, maybe? But with Xbox getting persona 5 and all the other big releases for the month, i foresee this one falling through the cracks.

 

[enpleinjour]

I guess they’re hoping so many exclusive platform releases will market themselves.

Forspoken & Valkyrie Elysium (possibly) - Playstation exclusives that will be marketed by Sony

Nier and Harvestella - Nintendo exclusives that will be marketed through Nintendo

Star Ocean 6- will be the biggest casualty. I think it also has Sony marketing, maybe? But with Xbox getting persona 5 and all the other big releases for the month, i foresee this one falling through the cracks.

Nier is a 5 year old port. I'm talking about their new titles/remasters/remakes. Pretty much all of SE is JRPGs, one genre, and a genre that isn't huge relative to some others. Releasing 9-10 JRPGs a year is excessive and has a real risk on hurting each other.

The biggest reason SO6 will fail is due to its quality. SO5 has a metacritic of 58. Its quantity over quality and really hurts their IP strength. Same with Chocobo, FF Stranger of Paradise, Babylons Fall, Valkyrie, DioField, Harvestella and so on.

You would think SE would look at Nier Automata, FF7R, FF14, Asano games and realise quality can really drive sales.

 

[Blue Monty]

Nier is a 5 year old port. I'm talking about their new titles/remasters/remakes. Pretty much all of SE is JRPGs, one genre, and a genre that isn't huge relative to some others. Releasing 9-10 JRPGs a year is excessive and has a real risk on hurting each other.

The biggest reason SO6 will fail is due to its quality. SO5 has a metacritic of 58. Its quantity over quality and really hurts their IP strength. Same with Chocobo, FF Stranger of Paradise, Babylons Fall, Valkyrie, DioField, Harvestella and so on.

You would think SE would look at Nier Automata, FF7R, FF14, Asano games and realise quality can really drive sales.

Harvestella has been prasied and has had good public reception due to being just that a Rune Factory with decent sized budget.I don't understand why you are putting it together with all the other games when it has much bigger potential than most of these games bar FFSoP, if the quality is there (which for most people it seems they trust on being there) it should sell 1m+ units which would be a success for a new IP with mid-tier budget.

 

[DarkDetective]

Yup, it's a Switch exclusive. Looks like Square Enix is publishing it worldwide. Might have interesting implications if this isn't limited to DQ spinoff games in the future.

Bit late to the party, but I'm very surprised Square Enix is publishing Dragon Quest Treasures themselves worldwide. Usually they delegate the western release of their Nintendo-exclusive games to Nintendo. Do we know whether this game will get a physical retail release in the west? I have a feeling they're self-publishing it because it will be digital-only, but I hope I'll be proven wrong.

 

[Blue Monty]

Bit late to the party, but I'm very surprised Square Enix is publishing Dragon Quest Treasures themselves worldwide. Usually they delegate the western release of their Nintendo-exclusive games to Nintendo. Do we know whether this game will get a physical retail release in the west? I have a feeling they're self-publishing it because it will be digital-only, but I hope I'll be proven wrong.

It is confirmed to be getting a physical release in the West by Nintendo official page

DRAGON QUEST TREASURES

A Boundless Adventure in a Treasure-Hunter's Paradise

www.nintendo.co.uk

 

[DarkDetective]

It is confirmed to be getting a physical release in the West by Nintendo official page

DRAGON QUEST TREASURES

A Boundless Adventure in a Treasure-Hunter's Paradise

www.nintendo.co.uk

Nice!

 

[Blue Monty]

Nice!

I imagine that if it is exclusive Nintendo will/has step up to make sure a retail release happens and Nintendo will distribute the game in regions/countries SE can’t, that’s what tends to happen with ‘big’ exclusives even if they dont publish them.

 

[Abzeronow]

The Diofield Chronicle launches on Sept 22nd

September might not be bad for Diofield Chronicle. October is definitely looking packed with games.

 

[Astrogamer]

So SE's lineup (ignoring DLC) now is

2022
Live A Live (July 22)
Dragon Quest X Offline (Sept 15)
Diofield Chronicle (Sept 22)
Nier Automata Switch (Oct 6)
Forspoken (Oct 11)
Star Ocean 6 (Oct 27)
Harvestella (Nov 4)
Dragon Quest Treasures (Dec 9)
Crisis Core
Valkyrie Elysium
Romancing SaGa: Ministrel's Song Remastered

Full Metal Alchemist Mobile
Final Fantasy 7: Ever Crisis
Kingdom Hearts Missing Link

2023
Final Fantasy XVI (Summer 2023)
Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth (Winter 2023)

TBA
Dragon Quest: Dai
DQIII HD
Dragon Quest XII
Final Fantasy VII Remake Part 3
Kingdom Heart IV
new Mana title
new SaGa title

 

[KR_EP]

@Astrogamer Extraordinary line up, nobody can say there aren't enough interesting games for 2022 from Square Enix only, let alone by the rest of the games industry. But there must be a reason why they are putting out so many games this Autumn. Perhaps there is little room for additional delays on the schedule with major titles without dates set to release in early 2023.

Could be they signed many external partners on good terms as they seem to have done with People Can Fly to increase marketshare. Maybe they are paving the way for a new subscription / streaming platform or wide ranging deal with an existing one. However it could just be a case of the simplest answer being the correct one, multiple games nearing completion after the height of the covid pandemic that were initially more spread out (Forspoken & DQX Offline). I just hope all the developers have been given enough time & money to deliver on their potential.

 

[skulkidcachi90]

Automata but not replicant is just baffling.

Dont forget than people find the code of switch in Replicant, so I guess that is a game to be release the next year.

 

[Astrogamer]

I feel this is also a move away from mobile games. In years past, they've released a few mobile titles over the course of the year but this year was only the new Bravely Default mobile game and Echoes of Mana plus the 3 games I listed above (though I'm pretty certain Missing Link won't fully launch until 2023). All of these are based on established properties. It could be that there are unannounced mobile games but, I think it's more that Square Enix has realized that the only new successful mobile games for them have been ones for their existing brands. As console titles, the IPs stand to make a better debut to then make mobile spinoffs.

 

[KtSlime]

I feel this is also a move away from mobile games. In years past, they've released a few mobile titles over the course of the year but this year was only the new Bravely Default mobile game and Echoes of Mana plus the 3 games I listed above (though I'm pretty certain Missing Link won't fully launch until 2023). All of these are based on established properties. It could be that there are unannounced mobile games but, I think it's more that Square Enix has realized that the only new successful mobile games for them have been ones for their existing brands. As console titles, the IPs stand to make a better debut to then make mobile spinoffs.

Mobile 2022 releases you forgot to list:
The Oldman and The Cat (f2p)
Chocobo GP' (f2p)
FF Pixel 6 (¥)
DQ Builders (¥)
RS Minstrel Song (¥)
Irregular at Magic HighSchool Reloaded Memory (f2p)
Engage Kill (f2p)

Usually there are 2-3 more they will announce before the end of the year I suspect.

 

[Alandring]

So SE's lineup (ignoring DLC) now is

2022
Live A Live (July 22)
Dragon Quest X Offline (Sept 15)
Diofield Chronicle (Sept 22)
Nier Automata Switch (Oct 6)
Forspoken (Oct 11)
Star Ocean 6 (Oct 27)
Harvestella (Nov 4)
Dragon Quest Treasures (Dec 9)
Crisis Core
Valkyrie Elysium
Romancing SaGa: Ministrel's Song Remastered

And they have already released:
Life is Strange Remastered (Feb 1)
Voice of Cards: The Forsaken Maiden (Feb 17)
Final Fantasy VI Pixel Remaster (Feb 23)
Babylon's Fall (Mar 03)
Triangle Strategy (Mar 04)
Chocobo GP (Mar 10)
Strangers of Paradise: Final Fantasy Origin (Mar 18)
Chrono Cross: The Radical Dreamers Edition (Apr 07)
The Centennial Case (May 12)

And, technically, they will also release Power Wash Simulator July 14.

So 21 games in one year. Amazing.