Does it actually matter whether a Nintendo version is key to success in this hypothetical? It seems more important to me that they actually release AAA games on Switch 2. Even if Switch 2 was 15% of total revenue, that's still a huge increase for SE for what is probably not a huge increase in work.
Bingo, and that's why @sfortunato and I compared to Dragon Quest. DQ3 HD-2D could have been successful enough on Switch alone, but it was still only a positive to have it on every other platform too.
This is the same argument about releasing on switch but for pc. Just because they release on PC is not a guarantee success either.
Comparing to Atlus is unfair because their scope is different. They can avoid switch because they need less ROI versus something like a big SE title that needs, seemingly, every possible roi on the market.
Also worth pointing out that a lot of SE's output has been on PC day 1 for years now, including stuff like Forspoken.