- Pronouns
- He/Him
Sony's Jim Ryan is confident the PS5 can sell at least 108 million units
- Thread starter Phantom Thief
- Replies 57
- Views 4,681
- Start date
- Industry News
Jimbo is possibly lowballing it.
But I’m still surprised it has sold close to the PS4 launch aligned with mostly cross gen games and a higher price
But I’m still surprised it has sold close to the PS4 launch aligned with mostly cross gen games and a higher price
PS4 started with a library of zero games, in an environment where people started to question the traditional console market - meanwhile PS5 played every PS4 from Day 1 and had support from most of the biggest service and online games people are playing right now.
PS5 is a straight up replacement and upgrade from PS4 - which wasnt the case going from PS3/PSV to PS4.
With that being said, PS5 demand has been ridiculous high for the first couple years so i guess being somewhat surprised by it makes sense.
Strange considering the current demand for it. But maybe he expects a new Switch and increasing Xbox demand.
I think the bigger question lies in its software situation, the absurd development time of first-party titles is getting so extreme that first-party studios are happy with releasing 2 games for a system. How many games can Naughty Dog and Sony Santa Monica come out with when it takes 5-6 years to make something?
After Spider-Man 2 it looks barren.
I think the bigger question lies in its software situation, the absurd development time of first-party titles is getting so extreme that first-party studios are happy with releasing 2 games for a system. How many games can Naughty Dog and Sony Santa Monica come out with when it takes 5-6 years to make something?
After Spider-Man 2 it looks barren.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I think PS5 will sell slightly more than the PS4, so in the 125 to 130 million range. Sales through to the 40th quarter of 100 million selling consoles
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Assuming JR is accurate here I can guess a few possible reasons (from most to least likely imo).
1) They're planning to drop the PS6 sooner then expected which would naturally cut off PS5 sales early.
2) They anticipate Switch 2 coming out soon and stealing a lot of thunder from PS5 as a lot more games will be multiplatform with it.
3) They expect the rumored disc-less PS5 to face some consumer backlash which would hurt momentum (assuming they discontinue the current popular model for it)
4) They think the CMA appeal will be successful, and expect a lot of people to pivot to Xbox due to the possibility of ABK titles going exclusive.
5) They expect cloud to take off in the next 5 years in a big way, which would diminish sales for main console devices.
I just have a hard time buying that JR and his team believe the PS5 will sell less then the PS4 given it's current trajectory.
1) They're planning to drop the PS6 sooner then expected which would naturally cut off PS5 sales early.
2) They anticipate Switch 2 coming out soon and stealing a lot of thunder from PS5 as a lot more games will be multiplatform with it.
3) They expect the rumored disc-less PS5 to face some consumer backlash which would hurt momentum (assuming they discontinue the current popular model for it)
4) They think the CMA appeal will be successful, and expect a lot of people to pivot to Xbox due to the possibility of ABK titles going exclusive.
5) They expect cloud to take off in the next 5 years in a big way, which would diminish sales for main console devices.
I just have a hard time buying that JR and his team believe the PS5 will sell less then the PS4 given it's current trajectory.
Is that even remotely in doubt at this point?
- Pronouns
- He/Hi
I’m sure PS5 will sell at least the same as PS4, thats ~120 millions.
If PS5 Pro is aiming for a 2024 release, PS6 is 2028 at earliest, maybe they can strech it until 2030.
If PS5 Pro is aiming for a 2024 release, PS6 is 2028 at earliest, maybe they can strech it until 2030.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
That's a very low estimate? I'd argue PS5 has everything to surpass PS4 LTD. But I guess future is very unpredictable.
This makes me think that this generation won't be super long. Probably another 7 year one.
I can see the logic of the "low ball", the current demand spike is riding on a few key factors that aren't exactly going to persist. We also have no forecast on new hardware revisions or where they might be positioned, and the PS4 enjoyed some very good long-term boons (price cut + Fortnite) that aren't clear to materialize again this generation.
It's also entirely possible that Sony expects a shorter generation before the PS6 comes out and continues the "Platystation family" that has been made fairly ubiquitous since the PS4 as the PS5 is a largely seemless transition.
It's also entirely possible that Sony expects a shorter generation before the PS6 comes out and continues the "Platystation family" that has been made fairly ubiquitous since the PS4 as the PS5 is a largely seemless transition.
7 years is the bare minimum IMO.
Seeing as how Xbox is doing its utmost to not compete with them, the market is Sony's to lose.
Third parties will continue to bolster its catalogue, and first party blockbusters will keep the PlayStation name in the customer mindshare.
It would honestly be more surprising if PS5 didn't hit that number.
Now, PS4 had a longevity that was ironically cut short by Sony in 2020, so that's what got it to 118. Part of it due to zeitgeist games such as Fortnite and GTAV, so we'll see if PS5 can find that strong position as well.
Third parties will continue to bolster its catalogue, and first party blockbusters will keep the PlayStation name in the customer mindshare.
It would honestly be more surprising if PS5 didn't hit that number.
Now, PS4 had a longevity that was ironically cut short by Sony in 2020, so that's what got it to 118. Part of it due to zeitgeist games such as Fortnite and GTAV, so we'll see if PS5 can find that strong position as well.
I think it’s erroneous for Jim to take the playstation network monthly active users 108 million and just -minus the current ps5 sales and assume that 70 million represent individual ps4 users yet to migrate to new hardware.
One piece of ps4 or ps5 hardware can have multiple accounts on it (to play games out of regions, friends and family members, etc.)
So the number of remaining individuals on the ps4 who haven’t bought a ps5 is a lot smaller than he thinks.
Also, the home console gaming userbase isn’t growing. So, to expect the ps5 userbase to be more than the ps4 is a bit of a stretch. I don’t see any signs of Sony growing the playstaion hardware user userbase this gen.
Yea, the length will be the key. And how many different models of the ps5 they plan on releasing during that length. It might help them pad out the raw hardware sales.
But if we are talking about the same gen length? Naw, no way it could reach ps4 sales.
Yea I get the being surprised part too…but the in-demand, low stock, quick sales after supply reaches demand tells us absolutely nothing definitively.
At the same point in the Wii lifecycle, the Wii had sold 50 million. If you told someone in May of 2009 that the Wii would end up selling only about 14 million more than the ps3…which was sitting at 23 million at the time…they would look at you side eyed, I’m sure.
Last edited:
The software sales were down(short-term profits go up, it´s great), software sells hardware, it´s the norm. Ps4 has easier competition than Ps5: Switch and Series seem more competitive than Wiiu and One. This is the fact, what disruptive strategy or blue ocean strategy Sony can make to fight against the dude bro decline and bring new crowd to plataform? What dormant consumers sony can reach and Microsoft and Nintendo don´t? Sony's strong suit was the distribution and all games go to the PlayStation. This is the weapon against Nintendo reaching the indies and Microsoft infinite money?
Sony positioned in games as services will bring more thirds than the former sell games method?
Sony positioned in games as services will bring more thirds than the former sell games method?
*6) they have a PS5 Pro in the pipeline they hope to further expand their reach and sales.
To be fair, it is only one showcase. There will be several others by Sony and they’ll reveal their pipeline when appropriate. Drawing a conclusion from one showcase imo is pretty silly. If it was a series of showcases and the audience was very negative to it I’d agree in being less confident.
Last edited:
- Pronouns
- He/Him
That's the exact opposite of what I'm saying. Unless you think the PS5 Pro is going to hurt sales, it has nothing to do with analyzing why JR is forecasting the PS5 to sell less then the PS4.
I agree the continuing ecosystem helps a lot.
However PS5 is missing /likely to miss some advantages PS4 had, though some were maintained.
1) Stink from the failed Xbone launch setting all momentum Sony's way (some residual of this remains to this day)
2) PS4 was the most powerful console and Xbone was weaker. Now reversed, if you want the best version of multiplats, Xbox wins.
3) Basically zero competition from Nintendo for the first few years
4) PS5 unlikely to get Fortnite and pandemic boosts that greatly benefited PS4
5) Dominant Japanese support on almost all fronts
6) Anecdotal, but PS4's design was well liked, many people loathe the PS5 physical design
Frankly I'm amazed it has sold this well with mostly cross gen games, but the 'no brainer' upgrade purchase from existing PS4 owners is obviously a strong selling point.
- Pronouns
- he/they
Yeah, the PS5's success is pretty crazy to me in light of its few exclusives even if it is riding a lot on the PS4's momentum. But probably a lot of people who are tired of their game console of choice sounding like a jet engine and willing to upgrade.
He said a very rounded number of 70M, which is reasonable, but I think it will do more than that.
The PlayStation 5 pro would take some of the sales for the standard model, and also push some people more to look for that experience over the basic model. Keep in mind that PlayStation’s audience is more receptive to a more performant system, and if Sony actually works a lot better this time to do with the PlayStation 4 pro, they can actually get some thing that performs better saleswise, but does eat into the base model sales I feel. At least a bit. Which they would like, you know, people buying the more expensive model, or the most premium form of that family.
If the performance per dollar is actually a compelling one, then people will actually gravitate to that system model
I thought the new model this year was just to sell a PS5 with a detachable disc drive not necessarily a PS5 Pro? Regardless I do think a PS5 Pro will provide a boost but nothing much long term similar to PS4 Pro. PS4 benefitted more from price reductions (slim and the black friday deals) than PS4 Pro ever provided. I don't think Playstation fans are more receptive to performance upgrades at all really unless its a successor (PS6). What exactly does a PS5 Pro add? Higher price tag, 8K, and better frame rates is all I can think of and that's not something that pulls in larger audiences. Maybe PS5 Pro timed with Spiderman 2 will help, so that might be the mistake they made with PS4 Pro which launched in 2016 with Uncharted 4 I thought. I don't see PS5 Pro doing any better than PS4 Pro and think Sony should focus on lowering PS5's price tag. Asking consumers to upgrade a home console is always a big ask from consumers at large because most consumers are content with the original console and aren't interested in paying more for a console that plays the same games. A portable platform like Switch is a much easier ask because there is so much more to upgrade on portable platforms such as performance, screen, battery, and even size of the device. Oled did far better for Switch than PS4 Pro did for PS4 because of this.
Its amazing for an analytics site how no one actually bothered to read the article. it completely eliminates the need to speculate and extrapolate on what it meant.
Pro is next year and slim with detachable drive is this year if rumors are to be believed.
From the same source that accurately leaked the PSQ-Lite
Ok yeah that sounds much more reasonable.
I'd predict something like Q -> few months later Diskless Slim -> few months after that Pro. Nice reveal/release cadence at like a six month pace.
That's similar to what PS4 did right except the screened controller of course. What's the pricing strategy?
Last edited:
He forecasted no such thing. But I'm enjoying reading all the strawman arguments from people here pretending that he did.
So if I'm not mistaken the trend of why PS consoles have success is something like this:
- PS1: Cheap console with no competition
- PS2: Cheap DVD + console and no competition
- PS3: Cheap Bluray with competition but sold less than the others
- PS4: Fornite, no competition
- PS5: PS4 BC games and FOMO
anything else??
- PS1: Cheap console with no competition
- PS2: Cheap DVD + console and no competition
- PS3: Cheap Bluray with competition but sold less than the others
- PS4: Fornite, no competition
- PS5: PS4 BC games and FOMO
anything else??
Bluray players were over $600?
Even the PS2 in it's first few years was more expensive than most DVD players.
a Sony "premium" Bluray player was $599 at the beginning of 2007, but others were a little bit more expensive, so yeah.
In the case of the PS2, by the end of 2001, a GE DVD player was $99 whilst the console was still $299.
I'd mix in a little more 'Microsoft/Nintendo fucked up' and you just about got it. Oh yeah and once PS5 breezes past another 100 million feel free to add "no competition" to that one also.
The value proposition of the PS2 was also "toy for the kids, DVD player for the family".
Don't forget Sega fucking up!
- Pronouns
- he/him
PS2 for Europe was also a SingStar machine. It basically made the PS2 a standard essential for teens and young adults on home parties. Karaoke was never a really big thing there compared to Asia or North America. They localized the games in English, French, German, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, Dutch, Norwegian, Swedish, Danish, Finnish, Polish, Croatian and Russian.
The 2000s were a phenomenal decade for London Studios in Europe. The marketing was incredible as well.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
That's a good callout. Between Singstar, Guitar Hero, Eye Toy and tv/film licenses the PS2 had a very broad library that appealed to a lot of "casual" players. Something Nintendo would of course successfully tap into with the Wii and DS.
Very true. Good to throw in a little something for our older Warriors.
I think it would be helpful if we had like a sarcasm font, because its so hard for me to tell anymore.