Sony Q4 FY3/2023 Financial Results - HW: 6.3M (+215% YoY, FCT surpassed!) ; SW: 68M (-4% YoY) [Edit: Business meeting !]

Brave statement when units hit a record low this year.

PlayStation Studios FY23: 43.5m sales (all games PS4+PS5)

Nintendo Q3FY23: 46.94m sales (top 19 Switch, not full catalog)
This confused me until I realized you were comparing a full fiscal year to one quarter

Any idea how they match up against the aforementioned third parties?
 
It's +1000 in Vegas odds, not +900, since your bet gets returned to you, too.

When people think something is a sure deal, they have a tendency to put money in without hedging appropriately.

Am I reading that right??? The better lost nearly 1.5 million dollars for a chance to make $11000??!!
 
This confused me until I realized you were comparing a full fiscal year to one quarter

Any idea how they match up against the aforementioned third parties?
I dug up their FY results in another thread, it's for the previous year and by revenue:

In billions of USD

Electronic Arts
Console: 3.716
PC + other: 1.195
Mobile: 0.718

Live services + other: 4.016
Full game: 1.613

Activision Blizzard
Mobile: 3.182
Console: 2.637
PC: 2.323
Other: 0.661

In-game, sub + other: 6.492
Product: 2.311

Take-Two Interactive
Console: 2.516
PC + other: 0.855

Service + other: 2.281
Product: 1.091
 
In other betting news, given the IDG estimates and the lack of mention of PSVR2 in the financial report, everyone predicting sub-1m won the bet 😉
I'm surprised more than half were betting 1m for PSVR2. There was barely an advertising, it wasn't available in stores, and the software lineup wasn't anything too enticing. I thought it was telling that PS5 had a bundled in Astro game like PSVR1, but there was no Astro game for PSVR2 (not even an announcement). I'm curious what we'll see, if anything, of VR2 at this upcoming PS showcase.
 
I'm surprised more than half were betting 1m for PSVR2. There was barely an advertising, it wasn't available in stores, and the software lineup wasn't anything too enticing. I thought it was telling that PS5 had a bundled in Astro game like PSVR1, but there was no Astro game for PSVR2 (not even an announcement). I'm curious what we'll see, if anything, of VR2 at this upcoming PS showcase.

Here are the total VR shipments by quarter according to IDC:

ePdOHrm.png


It's a pretty nascent market so far but even still, PSVR 2's 270K in 1Q23 is quite subdued.
 
This conversation will take us back to the 80s and 90s, the harshness that Nintendo treated third-party publishers and how that eventually made the ecosystem dominated by them.

In the case of the Switch, it's a little different because it inherited the good ecosystem of Nintendo's handhelds.

It's the best of both worlds.
Inheriting that ecosystem isn’t the only reason why Switch is succeeding with 3rd parties & being the most competitive it has ever been.
 
I'm surprised more than half were betting 1m for PSVR2. There was barely an advertising, it wasn't available in stores, and the software lineup wasn't anything too enticing. I thought it was telling that PS5 had a bundled in Astro game like PSVR1, but there was no Astro game for PSVR2 (not even an announcement). I'm curious what we'll see, if anything, of VR2 at this upcoming PS showcase.
It made sense not to spend a lot on advertising when they weren't producing that many and they knew the stock would clear.
 
I can't believe Sony beat that insane Q4 target. It really is like a platform relaunch, 25m is an ambitious target for next FY but they're off to a good start so far.


It's largely down to 1st party. With PS5 Sony has changed price strategies to hold pricepoints (like Nintendo) and it's increasing revenue while declining units. This FY ended up being a record low for PlayStation 1st party software, beating last year's record low, I think Sony will need to adjust their price strategy if they want to see PS4-like 1st party software unit sales again. But maybe they're fine with the tradeoff, holding price likely factors into their MGS strategy (also sacrificing catalog sales for subscriptions, but holding price to drive subscription value).
This is such an important point. I totally forgot that Sony has pretty much stopped doing price cuts on their premium games. By this point in its lifecycle, GOW4 had dropped to like $40 while Ragnarök is still $70.
 
Sony becomes first console maker which sold over 500 million home consoles:

PS1 - 102.4 million
PS2 - 155 million
PS3 - 87.4 million
PS4 - 117 million
PS5 - 38.4 million

Considering how Sony missed out on the first few generations of consoles it's incredible they are the first to hit this milestone.
This is such an important point. I totally forgot that Sony has pretty much stopped doing price cuts on their premium games. By this point in its lifecycle, GOW4 had dropped to like $40 while Ragnarök is still $70.
GOW launched in February 2018 I think. By black Friday that year despite huge sales at full price Sony put it on discount for around $20. The following black Friday (2019) $10. To be honest I'm not surprised they changed this strategy. It was incredible generous to new buyers and harsh on those who paid full price.
 
Considering how Sony missed out on the first few generations of consoles it's incredible they are the first to hit this milestone.
They're first in this subcategory but not in general to hit the 500m figure. Using the high end wiki estimates.

Nintendo handheld consoles: 596.11m
PlayStation home consoles: 500.49m
Nintendo home consoles: 394.81m
Xbox home consoles: 185m
PlayStation handheld consoles: 97m

Nintendo consoles: 888.77m
PlayStation consoles: 597.49m
Xbox consoles: 185m


GOW launched in February 2018 I think. By black Friday that year despite huge sales at full price Sony put it on discount for around $20. The following black Friday (2019) $10. To be honest I'm not surprised they changed this strategy. It was incredible generous to new buyers and harsh on those who paid full price.
Well, generous is putting it nicely but basically the rest of the AAAA industry (minus Nintendo) operates this way. Steep discounting was also important for building brands like Uncharted, TLOU, Horizon, GOW or Spider-Man too, they might not be 10-20m+ brands now without that deep discount catalog drive.

In general it was likely tougher for Sony though last gen since they relied so much on FGS. The growth of Plus and the Bungie purchase (MTX revenue influx) are big advantages that could offset continuing that model if they wanted but they've instead pivoted to a Nintendo-like price strategy in addition to leaning into MTX and Live Services. EA for a comparison makes more off FUT than they do actual game sales.
 
They're first in this subcategory but not in general to hit the 500m figure. Using the high end wiki estimates.

Nintendo handheld consoles: 596.11m
PlayStation home consoles: 500.49m
Nintendo home consoles: 394.81m
Xbox home consoles: 185m
PlayStation handheld consoles: 97m

Nintendo consoles: 888.77m
PlayStation consoles: 597.49m
Xbox consoles: 185m
Without Switch, total Nintendo home consoles sales are 280 million. Plus PS5 will sell another 100 million so it will be 600 million VS 280 million with Nintendo having one extra home console. Sony king of home consoles, Nintendo king of handhelds.
 
To contextualize the 25M forecast among the PlayStation TV console line here the PS1, PS2, PS3 and PS4 annual peak (sell-in):
m3mUcJY.jpg
 
So PS5 will 99% sell over 80 million which means that 6 out of 7 Sony consoles (including handhelds) sold over 80 million. Only Vita sold less.
 
Here are the total VR shipments by quarter according to IDC:

ePdOHrm.png


It's a pretty nascent market so far but even still, PSVR 2's 270K in 1Q23 is quite subdued.

You can get a crude estimate of PSVR2 sales from the rise in revenue from the Others section, compared to PSVR's launch. I put it in the ballpark of 300-400K, which is okay. We'll see if it can pick up in the holidays.
 
You can get a crude estimate of PSVR2 sales from the rise in revenue from the Others section, compared to PSVR's launch. I put it in the ballpark of 300-400K, which is okay. We'll see if it can pick up in the holidays.

Not sure if you are taking it into account, but DualSense Edge also released during the quarter and I imagine it's not a insignificant amount.
 
Not sure if you are taking it into account, but DualSense Edge also released during the quarter and I imagine it's not a insignificant amount.
Its very rough math, maybe I'll detail it if some are interested, but yeah that and PC sales.
 
Without Switch, total Nintendo home consoles sales are 280 million. Plus PS5 will sell another 100 million so it will be 600 million VS 280 million with Nintendo having one extra home console. Sony king of home consoles, Nintendo king of handhelds.
Or just Nintendo, king of consoles. They'll hit 1B in the next gen probably.

edit: Also if you arbitrarily removed Switch from the home console category it'd be 292.66m for Nintendo.
 
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Nintendo consoles: 888.77m
It depends what you count but if you include the dedicated game machines (the early consoles in which the logic of the game(s) was included with the hardware) and the anthological retro plug & play consoles then Nintendo's total is around 894M units as December 2022.
Personally I'd prefer counting only the video game systems with interchangeable software which is also how Nintendo presents their total hardware sales (for example in their Press Releases, though lately they turned to a more generic "over 800 million hardware units globally" instead of a precise figure).
 
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Or just Nintendo, king of consoles. They'll hit 1B in the next gen probably.

edit: Also if you arbitrarily removed Switch from the home console category it'd be 292.66m for Nintendo.
Well, Nintendo was in console market 10 years before Sony and it released 4 extra consoles.
 
It depends what you count but if you include the dedicated game machines (the early consoles in which the logic of the game(s) was included with the hardware) and the anthological retro plug & play consoles then Nintendo's total is around 894M units as December 2022.
Personally I'd prefer counting only the video game systems with interchangeable software which is also how Nintendo presents their total hardware sales (for example in their Press Releases, though lately they turned to a more generic "over 800 million hardware units globally" instead of a precise figure).
Ah, I already included sales for million seller dedicated consoles (CGTV, G&W, NESC, SNESC). I just left out anything under a million (VB's the only one we have numbers for iirc).


Well, Nintendo was in console market 10 years before Sony and it released 4 extra consoles.
More than 4 tbh.

By the same token Sony entered an already huge and thriving console marketplace while Nintendo basically had to build (or rebuild in the US) their console marketplace from scratch.
 
Or just Nintendo, king of consoles. They'll hit 1B in the next gen probably.

edit: Also if you arbitrarily removed Switch from the home console category it'd be 292.66m for Nintendo.
You included the classic consoles and the Color TV-Game, right? It should be 292.71M with those and 888.82M for all combined.

@Celine How did you get that 894M number?
 
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Yes Nintendo is really one of the biggest (if not the biggest) builders of the video game marketplace. They laid the foundation to what we consider the modern video game console space we enjoy today.

Sony/PlayStation is a huge part of that as well. They’ve had more consistent success in the home console space and Nintendo in the portable/handheld space.

The one major difference though is Nintendo has had #1home consoles, #1handhelds, and now has the #1hybrid. PlayStation has never had a #1portable, but the PSP is the bestselling non Nintendo handheld ever.
 
Crazy achievement from SIE. They have even further cement their footing even deeper and stronger for this new generation.

It is hard to see PS5 stopping this momentum anytime soon.
 
The constant growth and ROIC is simply outstanding. We're talking 10-20% growth/ROIC every year for the past 7 years.
Are you talking about the whole Sony?
G&NS division ROIC dropped down significantly.
Invested capital has doubled and return still have decreased.
uVAtQs4.png
 
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I wish someone (investors or press) would ask Sony for the PS2 final tally during the Q&A segment 😤
 
Are you talking about the whole Sony?
G&NS division ROIC dropped down significantly.
Invested capital has doubled and return still have decreased.
uVAtQs4.png

GN&S. FY22 and FY23 are both between 10-20% like I mentioned. Its very nice returns, and as Sony mentioned, they are prioritising increasing dev costs and game development (acquisition costs as well) over margin.
 
This is incredible momentum, considering generations are getting longer and longer, maybe Sony can reach PS2 heights again?

I don’t see how.

Ps2 era was an incredible expansion of the console gaming market in general, and the PlayStation brand/userbase specifically

Ps5 seems to still exist in a contracting market, nothing suggests the hardware nor the software is growing the console market userbase, or the PlayStation userbase.

Crazy achievement from SIE. They have even further cement their footing even deeper and stronger for this new generation.

It is hard to see PS5 stopping this momentum anytime soon.

Well, i wouldn’t even consider this momentum, tbh. If the increased hardware sales isn’t increasing software sales or user engagement…it’s not momentum?

We saw both of those decline this quarter, despite the lauded hardware sales.
 
I don’t see how.

Ps2 era was an incredible expansion of the console gaming market in general, and the PlayStation brand/userbase specifically

Ps5 seems to still exist in a contracting market, nothing suggests the hardware nor the software is growing the console market userbase, or the PlayStation userbase.



Well, i wouldn’t even consider this momentum, tbh. If the increased hardware sales isn’t increasing software sales or user engagement…it’s not momentum?

We saw both of those decline this quarter, despite the lauded hardware sales.

Software decline i feel is a bit part of circle. When ur software is down is more or less due to big release then it is more acceptable vs last year big elden ring number.
 
Software decline i feel is a bit part of circle. When ur software is down is more or less due to big release then it is more acceptable vs last year big elden ring number.

Ok, but it isn’t just a decline in software sales in Q4.

Holiday 2022 saw less PlayStation software being sold than Holiday 2021

Q2 2022 saw less PlayStation software being sold than Q2 2021

Q1 2022 saw less PlayStation software being sold than Q1 2021.

This isn’t just about whether Eldin Ring being “bigger” than Hogwarts Legacy and that explains what we are seeing (I believe Hogwarts hit 12 million in 2 weeks and it took Eldin Ring 3 weeks to do…so it’s an irrelevant argument anyways lol)

This is a pervasive, continual issue that isnt apparently being solved as hardware sales increase.
 
On the other hand, Sony abruptly cut off PS4 manufacturing by Holiday 2019 when they needed factory space for PS5's launch. From the start of 2020 through 2022 Sony only manufactured 8.2 million PS4 consoles, even though there was more than enough staying power for Sony to sell-through more units if they kept it around. I don't see why they wouldn't do the same when PS6 launches.
To corroborate Sony different handling of PS4 hardware sales post-successor compared the (distant) past:

PlayStation TV consoles sales after the release of the successor (taking as a reference the first quarter after the quarter the successor was launched for the very first time, therefore for PS1 it was considered the PS2 japanese launch):
PS1: 29.57M *
PS2: 39.64M *
PS3: ~7M **
PS4: 2.10M

Sell-in data unless otherwise specified.

* Production shipment (to not be confused with sell-in)
** Sony announced in early November 2013 that PS3 had reach the 80M milestone. For PS3 not all quarterly data is known due to Sony practice to group PS3 sales with PS2 ones in FY'12.

bvvnnA7.jpg

(For PS4 Q29 is the quarter when PS5 launched)
 
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„In addition, the positive impact of increased PS5 sell-in has begun to appear in engagement metrics, with dollar-based third-party software sales exceeding the same month of the previous fiscal year in February and March. Moreover, the number of monthly active users for PS as a whole increased 2.3 million accounts compared to the same month of the previous fiscal year in March.
• Since it takes about one to two months from the time hardware is shipped until the effects of improved engagement become apparent, we will pay close attention to the engagement metrics for this quarter and reflect the results in our future forecast as appropriate.“

An excerp from the webcast. I believe it would be prudent to wait with definitive statements until the next quarter. April to June have big releases like Jedi Survivor, Diablo IV, Street Fighter 6 or FFXVI. In comparison last year had nothing. And this is no exageration, last year was totally barren.

So if the next quarter sees no significant improvement in engagement metrics year over year, than it reveals a deeper problem.
 
Last year had Lego Star Wars on April 5th.
Last year also had catalog legs from major Jan-Mar releases (Elden Ring, Horizon 2, GT7, Dying Light 2, etc).

MLB was a pretty big CYQ2 release last year too (this year it launched CYQ1, so it'll still have legs).
 
Added the bets. We support positivity in video game sales, so let's so who has the guts to drop their money on some of those higher end bets.
 
Last year had Lego Star Wars on April 5th.
Oh yeah, i looked at last years release list and somehow missed this…

Regardless this year should have far more big games.
Catalog sales are very hard to quantify. Does HL this quarter sell more than Elden Ring last quarter? Is one Dead Island 2 worth more than catalog sales of DL2? And so on.
I believe we all agree that this quarter should show improvement, especially in unit sales metric. If not, further analysis is definitly required.
 
If PS5 hits 30 million, do the people who predicted 25 million lose everything?
No.

The "at least 25M" and "less than 25M" are the standard bets.

The other 3 are additional bets to bet more money on.

So you can bet on all 3 at least or more than 25M bets if you want, and risk much more money.

If PS5 ships 28M, then the "at least 25M" and "26M" would win. If PS5 somehow ships 31M, then that would be a victory for all 3 >=25M bets.
 
This is absolutely just personal evidence and nothing more, but my personal take, again, based on what I have seen...

I only know personally two persons with a PS5... My 14 years old nephew and a coworker... And they haven't purchased a single game because they only care about Fornite (and to a lesser extent Rocket League).

Again, this is just personal evidence and nothing more.

I don't know if GaaS are affecting the rest of the software, but it could be a small reason.
 
This is absolutely just personal evidence and nothing more, but my personal take, again, based on what I have seen...

I only know personally two persons with a PS5... My 14 years old nephew and a coworker... And they haven't purchased a single game because they only care about Fornite (and to a lesser extent Rocket League).

Again, this is just personal evidence and nothing more.

I don't know if GaaS are affecting the rest of the software, but it could be a small reason.
The fact that this happens at all is crazy to me.
 
They're first in this subcategory but not in general to hit the 500m figure. Using the high end wiki estimates.

Nintendo handheld consoles: 596.11m
PlayStation home consoles: 500.49m
Nintendo home consoles: 394.81m
Xbox home consoles: 185m
PlayStation handheld consoles: 97m

Nintendo consoles: 888.77m
PlayStation consoles: 597.49m
Xbox consoles: 185m



Well, generous is putting it nicely but basically the rest of the AAAA industry (minus Nintendo) operates this way. Steep discounting was also important for building brands like Uncharted, TLOU, Horizon, GOW or Spider-Man too, they might not be 10-20m+ brands now without that deep discount catalog drive.

In general it was likely tougher for Sony though last gen since they relied so much on FGS. The growth of Plus and the Bungie purchase (MTX revenue influx) are big advantages that could offset continuing that model if they wanted but they've instead pivoted to a Nintendo-like price strategy in addition to leaning into MTX and Live Services. EA for a comparison makes more off FUT than they do actual game sales.
Oh I'm aware Nintendo handhelds have crossed the mark I was discussing the point about home consoles. Sony have done an impressive takeover in this regard considering they've launched less home consoles then Nintendo.
This is absolutely just personal evidence and nothing more, but my personal take, again, based on what I have seen...

I only know personally two persons with a PS5... My 14 years old nephew and a coworker... And they haven't purchased a single game because they only care about Fornite (and to a lesser extent Rocket League).

Again, this is just personal evidence and nothing more.

I don't know if GaaS are affecting the rest of the software, but it could be a small reason.
Click to expand...
Are they spending much on MTX? I know more then one person who only buys COD and FIFA yearly and they spend over a thousand yearly on MTX. Some year's thousands. These type of gamers are more valuable than hardcore gamers like me who buy 3/4 games day 1 and 6 or 7 yearly on sale.
 
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Here are the total VR shipments by quarter according to IDC:

ePdOHrm.png


It's a pretty nascent market so far but even still, PSVR 2's 270K in 1Q23 is quite subdued.
Big dip in Meta Q4 sales. Also pretty evident that VR market is basically just Meta. Sending out a wired headset in 2023 was Sony just sending PSVR2 to die. Although they are likely making good margins on the headset and treating it more like the Dualsense Edge than a gaming platform. Can chalk this up as another major tech trend that Sony will miss out on.
 
Big dip in Meta Q4 sales. Also pretty evident that VR market is basically just Meta. Sending out a wired headset in 2023 was Sony just sending PSVR2 to die. Although they are likely making good margins on the headset and treating it more like the Dualsense Edge than a gaming platform. Can chalk this up as another major tech trend that Sony will miss out on.
I kinda doubt they're making good margins on the goggles. It's a high-end headset for a mid-end price. I guess we'll never know for sure.
 
So PS made about $712 million in profit. We have any profit/operating income numbers on Xbox for last year?

EDIT:

This article says they made $1.8 billion is profit. What am I missing here?
 
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