Sony Q3 FY3/2023 Financial Results

[MysticGon]

That would just mean some of that supply rolls over to the next quarter. Shipped just means retailer has purchased those PS5s but doesn't mean it's on shelves or in their warehouse yet. As long as demand is continuous, I can imagine retailers taking a steady supply of PS5s.

It's true. A lot of those consoles are in shipping containers somewhere in the Pacific or backed up in some port somewhere. But as long as they are in the shipping process retailers may or may not order more. The 2 million left over after New Years actually hurt Sony's chances of shipping another 6 million over the next 3 months. That's 2 million a month. Or to put it another way, they are expecting peak DS numbers from a device that costs 4 times as much.

 

[SSN]

Sony has been really ramping up the marketing for PS5 (and God of War) as of late. I have particularly seen some big advertisements in the Europe and India regions. They're almost treating it like a second launch.

Here

 

[BTB123]

Seems you misunderstood me. I was saying that for Sony to hit a 6.2M shipment target, they only need retail to actually sell about 4M consoles over that same time period.

Why would they "need" to sell only 4M if they ship 6.2M? Having up to 2M units in transit at the end of a holiday quarter is relatively normal.
Having anything north of 1M unsold units after a non-holiday quarter is not normal.
They would either have an astranomical amount of units in transit at the end of hhe quarter (for which they'd need to ship 4M all at once in late March) or a shocking amount of unsold units on shelves because of oversupply. In both scenarios they wouldn't need to ship any further units in the following quarter.
They need to sell through more than 6M.

I really don't get your point.

 

[Avitsky]

Why would they "need" to sell only 4M if they ship 6.2M? Having up to 2M units in transit at the end of a holiday quarter is relatively normal.
Having anything north of 1M unsold units after a non-holiday quarter is not normal.
They would either have an astranomical amount of units in transit at the end of hhe quarter (for which they'd need to ship 4M all at once in late March) or a shocking amount of unsold units on shelves because of oversupply. In both scenarios they wouldn't need to ship any further units in the following quarter.
They need to sell through more than 6M.

I really don't get your point.

Sony : The production and distribution problem continued. So the products are not delivered to the customers sufficiently, distribution channel at the shop front, the products are not delivered yet sufficiently. So we need to streamline the operation and so that, the units will be delivered to the customers as promptly as possible

 

[fiendcode]

Channel stuffing is likely the only way Sony can meet this target, and it'd be stuffing to a historic degree for Q4. They do that though and it could impact next FY.

 

[Luminoth 4545]

including other data available

Hardware shipments After 9 Quarters

Wii - 44.96 million
PS4 - 37.80 million
DS - 35.61 million
NSW - 34.74 million
GBA - 33.81 million
PS5 - 32.10 million
3DS - 31.09 million
PS1 - 29.50 million est. (32.82 million after 10 quarters)
PS2 - 28.68 million
PSP - 22.30 million
PS3 - 21.10 million

 

[MysticGon]

From other data

including other data availible

Hardware shipments After 9 Quarters

Wii - 44.96 million
PS4 - 37.80 million
DS - 35.61 million
NSW - 34.74 million
GBA - 33.81 million
PS5 - 32.10 million
3DS - 31.09 million
PS1 - 29.50 million est. (32.82 million after 10 quarters)
PS2 - 28.68 million
PSP - 22.30 million
PS3 - 21.10 million

It would have been nice to see PSP vs 3DS since they are nearly identical in specs and sales but it's impossible since it was during the time where Sony was embarrassed and covered their shame.

 

[Fatal Nutritionist]

I do not see how adding toxicity, turnover, and crunch will help Xbox's situation at all.

Because you're used to Xbox being in the same positions since 2015, but if these events happened with most other gaming companies you wouldn't be saying this.

A couple months ago, Satya Nadella said that "nearly half" of all Series S owners are new to the ecosystem. He didn't mention any Series X numbers, but combined with Series S it's probably not far away from Sony's 30%. I think this is normal tbh.

You're confusing demographics and conflating them with the same 30% overview.

30% of new players, where ever they came from PC, Xbox, PS3/2 skipped 3/4, handhelds, maybe a few casuals, etc, those were new to the PS5, the traditional-type gaming console.

The Series S is not, and is supposed to be an appealing entry level for people who don't care that much about gaming, or long gaming sessions, at a price point for people who don't want to spend much to get their foot in, or for casuals or minecraft gamers to have cheaper access (or parents cheaper access) to current gen games with weaker hardware.

Most of the nearly half (not 30%) you mention is people that would likely not buy a Series X if there wasn't a Series S. Sony's new users are a sign of retention and gaining more reliable consumers into their ecosystem, which will have more stable and more beneficial long-term prospects. While the Series S is much weaker in that position, and much of what it gains are akin to what the Wii gained or Kinect. Especially for the price.

Microsoft needs to make more Series X, and then, they need to use S as a bridge which what they were doing earlier and then kind of stopped for some reason. They need the X to help close people into the ecosystem that are more reliable.

 

[Baki]

Sales are up by almost 800% on week in Spain, 98% in the UK and 108% in Japan. All signs point to healthy demand that will lead to a blockbuster quarter. But the strongest signal is that Sony decided to increase their estimate for the FY after reviewing 1 month of data for the current quarter. Public companies don’t raise estimates in the final quarter without being very confident in hitting those goals. Barring unexpected supply problems, it’s very likely Sony will hit their target. The only occasions Sony has missed estimates is when the supply situation was uncertain with things like new lockdowns in China. I think we’re past those issues for now.

 

[epicene101]

1-) You're just stating the numbers here. I am already aware of them.

2-) Whether SW2 is the fastest selling console is or isn't doesn't matter. It won't outsell the PS5 in its first year. That's totally unprecedented and quite frankly absurd! Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

3-) Again I'm aware of the numbers. In comparison to PS4, Switch performed way better in summer and holiday periods, which make perfect sense.

"Switch didn't have it easy after Nov 2018".
LMAO what. That's objectively false:
• In 2019, its competition were XONE, lol, and a PS4 with no price cuts since 2016, whose biggest 2 first party titles disappointed that year and had a notoriously bad tail for a PS console. If the slim PS4 was $200 for the year, then there's no way it would have such a bad tail.
• In 2020, SW was the primary beneficiary of the pandemic boost, in terms of hardware. I have talked about this a lot before too, so I won't waste much time here.
• From 2021 to mid 22, it was competing against 2 severely supply constrained consoles, who were adversely affected by the delays of key software.

On a side note, people need to make up their minds about Nintendo/SW. Either it's in its own market and doesn't get affected by the other two, or it's just as much in the competition with other consoles and will obviously benefit when the other two consoles aren't even available.

I disagree with most of this. Switch didn’t have it easy in any of the (previous) years it was available. At all. Nintendo created a device that resonated and the rest is history. Scenarios that downplay the convenient brilliance of the Switch and the hard work Nintendo put in to make sure it was a sustainable success, isn’t needed. Reality kicked in and is showing the Switch is a Top 3 bestselling console. How they got there after the Wii U isn’t something I would call easy under any circumstance lol. Nintendo is very strong competition as we can see.

Good results for Sony/PlayStation. Hopefully they meet their goals.

 

[SSN]

I disagree with most of this. Switch didn’t have it easy in any of the (previous) years it was available. At all. Nintendo created a device that resonated and the rest is history. Scenarios that downplay the convenient brilliance of the Switch and the hard work Nintendo put in to make sure it was a sustainable success, isn’t needed. Reality kicked in and is showing the Switch is a Top 3 bestselling console. How they got there after the Wii U isn’t something I would call easy under any circumstance lol. Nintendo is very strong competition as we can see.

Good results for Sony/PlayStation. Hopefully they meet their goals.

I don't want to make a PlayStation thread all about Nintendo, but you're just saying "I disagree", without refuting any of my points.

Just for the record, I didn't claim the transition from WiiU to NSW was easy anywhere in my post. Of course it wasn't and that's why my post was specifically about the conditions for Switch from 2019 onwards. Both things can be true simultaneously.

 

[epicene101]

I don't want to make a PlayStation thread all about Nintendo, but you're just saying "I disagree", without refuting any of my points.

Just for the record, I didn't claim the transition from WiiU to NSW was easy anywhere in my post. Of course it wasn't and that's why my post was specifically about the conditions for Switch from 2019 onwards. Both things can be true simultaneously.

I don’t either. That’s why I kept it very short without going into much detail. Like I said, I absolutely disagree with Switch having it easy any year (that includes 2019-Now) lol. I could make a case for other consoles having it easy with numbers to back it up, but that wouldn’t make me right. Reality is reality. Switch is popular because it’s a desirable product with desirable games, regardless of what the competition is doing.

 

[Astral_lion02]

It would have been nice to see PSP vs 3DS since they are nearly identical in specs and sales but it's impossible since it was during the time where Sony was embarrassed and covered their shame.

We have enough data to do that comparaison.

For PSP

I found some incomplete but quite substantial official quarterly hardware data for PSP and PS3. https://web.archive.org/web/2013092...i.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps3_sale_e.html

We also have prod ship for evry Playstation here from 1994 to march 2007

Cumulative Production Shipments of Hardware (until March 2007)

PlayStation
PlayStation 2
PlayStation Portable

The problem is just that Sony change their way to report data from Production Shipments to Consolidated Shipments in 2007 so data don't match.

We miss data for PSP after march 2012 because Sony decide to combine PSP and PS Vita numbers but PSP LTD as march 2012 is aleready higher than 3DS final LTD.
Final PSP LTD is most likely higher than GBA

Regional data are probably like this:

Japan: 3DS > PSP > GBA
NA: GBA > 3DS > PSP
EU/Others: PSP > 3DS = GBA

WW: PSP > GBA > 3DS

 

[Phenom08]

Wait did Sony only mention the increase to 19 million in a conference call or was this actually reported on the fincial report?

I have predicted this before and I will reiterate this again, that PS5 will be stronger than PS4 in USA. Case in point, a supply constrained PS5 2022 was better than the peak year of PS4 (2015).

Be careful with this because I don't think people expected PS4 2016 to do worse than PS4 2015 considering PS4 Pro and the $299 price cut. PS5 selling less this holiday could cost it against last year.

 

[SSN]

Be careful with this because I don't think people expected PS4 2016 to do worse than PS4 2015 considering PS4 Pro and the $299 price cut. PS5 selling less this holiday could cost it against last year.

My last point has already been made obsolete as Welfare has recently downgraded the PS5 sales estimates for 2022. So yeah.. just ignore that one...for now. Lol

 

[Luminoth 4545]

We have enough data to do that comparaison.

For PSP


We also have prod ship for evry Playstation here from 1994 to march 2007



The problem is just that Sony change their way to report data from Production Shipments to Consolidated Shipments in 2007 so data don't match.

We miss data for PSP after march 2012 because Sony decide to combine PSP and PS Vita numbers but PSP LTD as march 2012 is aleready higher than 3DS final LTD.
Final PSP LTD is most likely higher than GBA

Regional data are probably like this:

Japan: 3DS > PSP > GBA
NA: GBA > 3DS > PSP
EU/Others: PSP > 3DS = GBA

WW: PSP > GBA > 3DS

I figured out PSP's FY 05/06 . Sony said PSP shipments were 76.4 million as of March 31st 2012 so working backwards with the available data the PSP was 14.2 million as of March 31st 2006. Sony said that PSP shipped 3 million in FY 04/05 so that means 11.2 million for FY 05/06.

As for PS3, there was no yearly data after March 2012 but i can do a good job of filling then in. For 13/14 PS3 + PS4 was 14.6 million of which 7.6 million were PS4 (7m Ps3), for 14/15 PS3+PS4 was 17.9 million of which 14.8 million were PS4 (3.1m PS3).

The other years are more informed guess work. PS3 totaled 87.4 million as of March 31st 2017 so that means 13.4 million for 12/13, 15/16 and 16/17. For 12/13 PS2+PS3 was 16.5 million and PS2 was 155 million at the beginning of the FY and was discontinued worldwide in January 2013, now a number i've seen estimated alot is 158.7 million Lifetime for PS2 so this means 3.7 million for the FY which leaves 12.8 million for PS3. This leaves 600k left for the remaining two FY's, the 16/17 shipments would likely be really small so probably a 500K/100K split.

06/07: 3.5 million
07/08: 9.1 million
08/09: 10.1 million
09/10: 13 million
10/11: 14.3 million
11/12: 13.9 million
12/13: 12.8 million est
13/14: 7 million
14/15: 3.1 million
15/16: 0.5 million est
16/17: 0.1 million est
Total: 87.4 million

Anyway does anyone know the reason Sony stopped giving quarterly updates for PSP, PS2 and PS3 after March 2012?

 

[allan-bh]

Anyway does anyone know the reason Sony stopped giving quarterly updates for PSP, PS2 and PS3 after March 2012?

Probably a change to not have to disclose the PS Vita low sales.

 

[gtj1982]

Until PS5s are actually sitting on shelves with additional inventory in retailers stock rooms and distribution centers there can be no such thing as an over shipment.

 

[SSN]

More PS5+God of War marketing. Honestly, this truly seems bigger than launch window marketing to me.

 

[enpleinjour]

More PS5+God of War marketing. Honestly, this truly seems bigger than launch window marketing to me.

What's interesting to note is how a lot of the marketing is being focused in RoTW markets, something sales aggregators rarely follow closely. Looking at just US,EU, JP is not enough and increasingly won't be unless ratios start stagnating. FY20 RoTW already accounted for 10%+. China is expected to be 2x PS4 hardware sales for instance.

Middle East and South America could see notable growth as well.

 

[SSN]

What's interesting to note is how a lot of the marketing is being focused in RoTW markets, something sales aggregators rarely follow closely. Looking at just US,EU, JP is not enough and increasingly won't be unless ratios start stagnating. FY20 RoTW already accounted for 10%+. China is expected to be 2x PS4 hardware sales for instance.

Middle East and South America could see notable growth as well.

Yep. ME with its increasing average income, should easily be a growth market for PS5.

India is going to have growth over the PS4 easily. IIRC, PS4 didn't even launch there till like 2016.

South America, I think Xbox is still very competitive there. So this should be just an extension of their USA strategy.

 

[Baki]

What's interesting to note is how a lot of the marketing is being focused in RoTW markets, something sales aggregators rarely follow closely. Looking at just US,EU, JP is not enough and increasingly won't be unless ratios start stagnating. FY20 RoTW already accounted for 10%+. China is expected to be 2x PS4 hardware sales for instance.

Middle East and South America could see notable growth as well.

China did 670K units in 1 year. It's probably one of the fastest selling markets for Sony. It was the 6th biggest market for Sony and that's after a delayed release of May 2021.

 

[enpleinjour]

South America, I think Xbox is still very competitive there. So this should be just an extension of their USA strategy.

If its anything like Brazil, then Xbox is that competitive:

 

[SSN]

If its anything like Brazil, then Xbox is that competitive:

Oh. I must have misremembered it. I thought Xbox was way more competitive there. Or was it Mexico? Idk

 

[kazuyamishima]

Oh. I must have misremembered it. I thought Xbox was way more competitive there. Or was it Mexico? Idk

I believe it’s Mexico.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Oh. I must have misremembered it. I thought Xbox was way more competitive there. Or was it Mexico? Idk

Yes Xbox is indeed very strong in Mexico

 

[Baki]

If its anything like Brazil, then Xbox is that competitive:

Looks like Sony has 2x the marketshare in Brazil? Am I reading this wrong?

 

[KillerMan]

As a sidenote I wonder how many PS4s Sony still ships. Japan has had small sudden resurgence during last few months when it comes to PS4 supply and now I also see PS4 MWII bundle here in Finland in stock with many retailers. Before this I have not seen PS4 in stock for like a year.

 

[Astral_lion02]

If its anything like Brazil, then Xbox is that competitive:

PS2 was probably the first and only console who had a massive succes in Brazil.
Then PS huge market share come from that.

Also impressive how low Nintendo is on these kind of regions.
(And DS/Wii were probably worse than Switch).

Maybe a Switch 2 target will be to grow in these regions.

 

[SSN]

Also impressive how low Nintendo is on these kind of regions.
(And DS/Wii were probably worse than Switch).

Maybe a Switch 2 target will be to grow in these regions.

Nintendo's unwillingness to price drop and uncompetitive local pricing is the reason why they always perform so poorly in these lower income countries.
Plus, at least where I live (India), Nintendo is viewed as a kiddy thing.

 

[Baki]

Now that Jan is over and we have some sale numbers. We know that:
- Japan sales are up by 200%
- UK sales are up by 98%
- Spain sales are up by 260%

Need to wait for NPD numbers but looks like Sony is on track to hit their target.

 

[allan-bh]

Now that Jan is over and we have some sale numbers. We know that:
- Japan sales are up by 200%
- UK sales are up by 98%
- Spain sales are up by 260%

Need to wait for NPD numbers but looks like Sony is on track to hit their target.

Looking at the actual numbers, not the growing percentages, I'm not seeing. They of course can ship 6 million, but sell through in the quarter I doubt.

 

[Terrell]

PS2 was probably the first and only console who had a massive succes in Brazil.

** Master System has entered the chat

 

[Baki]

Looking at the actual numbers, not the growing percentages, I'm not seeing. They of course can ship 6 million, but sell through in the quarter I doubt.

2M shipped last year for Q4 and that was heavily supply constrained. Healthy supply but with demand remaining the same would've translated to 3M shipped. So 100% increased in demand should translate to 6M shipped.

Here is PS5 most active markets from mid-2022

#2 market has seen a 98% increase
#3 market has seen a 200% increase
#10 market has seen a 260% increase

Even more interesting is that PS5 is outperforming holiday sales in Jan for the #3 market (Japan) and #10 market (Spain). We know they shipped 7M for that holiday quarter.

PS4 most active markets for comparison

 

[D.Lo]

** Master System has entered the chat

Not really the same thing when the sales were licenced but locally produced clones as ultra-budget systems ten years or more after the console was released in Japan. If you look at the dates on the Brazil only releases (or hacks of games) they're all mid to late 90s.

TecToy - Sega Retro

segaretro.org

 

[fiendcode]

Nintendo's unwillingness to price drop and uncompetitive local pricing is the reason why they always perform so poorly in these lower income countries.
Plus, at least where I live (India), Nintendo is viewed as a kiddy thing.

Nintendo's biggest issue in emerging markets is really distribution and presence at all. It's a major advantage larger companies (Sony, Microsoft) with established reach in these nations due to other businesses continue to hold over them.

After their success in Korea and HK/Taiwan, you'd hope they more actively move into growth markets rather than rely on 3rd party distributors but they're still moving too slowly on this front imo. It's shocking how tiny Nintendo is for a global company.

 

[Terrell]

Not really the same thing when the sales were licenced but locally produced clones as ultra-budget systems ten years or more after the console was released in Japan. If you look at the dates on the Brazil only releases (or hacks of games) they're all mid to late 90s.

TecToy - Sega Retro

segaretro.org

Officially licensed by Sega, who worked very directly with Tectoy on the original release, and was massively successful even within its original non-extended hardware cycle. It's like saying the Comboy doesn't count as a South Korean console release because it was a NES licensed to Hyundai. A console is a console.

 

[D.Lo]

Officially licensed by Sega, who worked very directly with Tectoy on the original release, and was massively successful even within its original non-extended hardware cycle. It's like saying the Comboy doesn't count as a South Korean console release because it was a NES licensed to Hyundai. A console is a console.

I didn't say it 'doesn't count', I said it was not comparable ('not really the same thing') to Sony themselves selling actual PS2s during its regular lifetime. These were cut down micro-budget consoles being sold in the late 90s with a bunch of built in games, comparable to your average 1997 NOAC Famiclone+pirate multi-cart, just that Sega got a few cents for each.

'Successful' is relative too, it was only for a few years before it all collapsed, the actual top consoles of that era by far were Famiclones, Tec Toy led the small portion of the market that was legitimate licensed consoles and games, and there's also nothing in the way of verified tracked sales, just claims.

 

[allan-bh]

I didn't say it 'doesn't count', I said it was not comparable ('not really the same thing') to Sony themselves selling actual PS2s during its regular lifetime. These were cut down micro-budget consoles being sold in the late 90s with a bunch of built in games, comparable to your average 1997 NOAC Famiclone+pirate multi-cart, just that Sega got a few cents for each.

'Successful' is relative too, it was only for a few years before it all collapsed, the actual top consoles of that era by far were Famiclones, Tec Toy led the small portion of the market that was legitimate licensed consoles and games, and there's also nothing in the way of verified tracked sales, just claims.

Playstation 2 was officially launched for Sony in Brazil in 2009. The success the console had in the country was due to grey market imports and massive piracy.

Master System and Mega Drive from TecToy were big success in the official brazilian market, as well as the Super Nintendo from Playtronic.

 

[SSN]

Regarding Sony's 6.2M forecast for this quarter, I'm gonna repost my hypothesis here from the UK sales thread, for more exposure.

Judging by the high expectations of Sony for this year and the fact that they expect PS5 to match PS4 launch aligned by the year's end, I think the scenario that I am going to outline below makes sense:

So PS5 is ~6M behind PS4 launch aligned. In order to meet Sony's expectation, the number of units PS5 needs to sell through in 2023 are
= PS4 2016 (~18M) + 6M
= 24M
which averages out to 2M a month, that is exactly the amount of units needed to achieve that 6.2M target.

 

[Baki]

Only 1 month left for Q4 and I think Japan has been the most surprising region for me. If Japan continues it's current trend for the remainder of March (5 weeks), PS5 would have sold through 1.05M PS5s in Japan for Q4. Other numbers we know so far:

• PS5 ahead by 3X in Europe for January
• PS5 ahead by 1.98X in UK for January
• PS5 ahead by 3.35X in Japan for first 2 months of 2023
• PS5 either ahead by 5X or 6X in Spain for first 2 months of 2023

I wonder what Sony shipment targets for Q1 will be?

Regarding Sony's 6.2M forecast for this quarter, I'm gonna repost my hypothesis here from the UK sales thread, for more exposure.

Judging by the high expectations of Sony for this year and the fact that they expect PS5 to match PS4 launch aligned by the year's end, I think the scenario that I am going to outline below makes sense:

So PS5 is ~6M behind PS4 launch aligned. In order to meet Sony's expectation, the number of units PS5 needs to sell through in 2023 are
= PS4 2016 (~18M) + 6M
= 24M
which averages out to 2M a month, that is exactly the amount of units needed to achieve that 6.2M target.

If Sony aims for 24M in 2023, what would they expect to ship in the holiday quarter (Q3)?

 

[Biscuit]

24 million would be quite the year

 

[gtj1982]

Only 1 month left for Q4 and I think Japan has been the most surprising region for me. If Japan continues it's current trend for the remainder of March (5 weeks), PS5 would have sold through 1.05M PS5s in Japan for Q4. Other numbers we know so far:

• PS5 ahead by 3X in Europe for January
• PS5 ahead by 1.98X in UK for January
• PS5 ahead by 3.35X in Japan for first 2 months of 2023
• PS5 either ahead by 5X or 6X in Spain for first 2 months of 2023

I wonder what Sony shipment targets for Q1 will be?



If Sony aims for 24M in 2023, what would they expect to ship in the holiday quarter (Q3)?

It’s almost as if Sony and retailers had insight into consumer demand and shipment feasibility causing Sony to evaluate the two data points and increase their forecast to 19 million.

I think they will aim for a 10 million Q3. So with ~6m in Q4 and about 7 million combined for Q1 and Q2 on the conservative end I think 23m is the floor for CY23.

 

[fiendcode]

I mean, it's still 6.2m in a Q4. More than any other console in history, closest was Wii in 2008 (5.46m) or DS in 2007 (5.81m) if you include handhelds. And those systems sold through a whole lot more than 1m in Japan that quarter.

edit: looking it up Wii actually wasn't far off (1.1m), DS was though (1.93m).

 

[SSN]

Only 1 month left for Q4 and I think Japan has been the most surprising region for me. If Japan continues it's current trend for the remainder of March (5 weeks), PS5 would have sold through 1.05M PS5s in Japan for Q4. Other numbers we know so far:

• PS5 ahead by 3X in Europe for January
• PS5 ahead by 1.98X in UK for January
• PS5 ahead by 3.35X in Japan for first 2 months of 2023
• PS5 either ahead by 5X or 6X in Spain for first 2 months of 2023

I wonder what Sony shipment targets for Q1 will be?



If Sony aims for 24M in 2023, what would they expect to ship in the holiday quarter (Q3)?

Yeah. All signs point to Sony meeting their FYQ4 forecast. Moreover I think the actual sell through for this Q will be >6M. So yeah...no "overshipping". Lol

It's crazy how few people believed Sony will meet their forecasts. I can only think of 3-4 members here.

Regarding next FY (2023-24), here are my expectations for each Qs:

Q1: 4M
Q2: 6M (Spider-Man 2 should release here)
Q3: 11M
Q4: 4M
Total= 25M

I think Sony will forecast 23/24M for the next FY, but I expect them to slightly over perform it

 

[SSN]

We are now almost at the end of March. Judging by the slight price cuts the PS5 has been getting as of late, I think we can now safely conclude that after a long 2.5 years, the supply issues have been mostly resolved worldwide.

Now we will finally be able to gauge its real demand. This will be the most exciting thing to look forward the next FY for me.

 

[Luminoth 4545]

I don't think they will sell 6.2 million this quarter, my prediction is 5.5 million or slightly less. They only shipped 2 million this quarter in 2022 and we know Europe was not the main focus for shipments so of that 2 million let's just say 500k were for Europe so a 4 times increase yoy would be 2 million for Europe for the quarter which is huge but they also need a 2.5 times increase everywhere else and apart from Japan i don't think that will happen. America's will be really difficult to get a 1.75 times increase because it got decent shipments last year.

Anyway it will be interesting to see what happens, for Q4 here are the records that PS5 might break:

4.72 million record for hybrid (Switch)
5.44 million record for home console (Wii)
5.81 million record for handheld (NDS)

 

[salesguy]

Yeah. All signs point to Sony meeting their FYQ4 forecast. Moreover I think the actual sell through for this Q will be >6M. So yeah...no "overshipping". Lol

It's crazy how few people believed Sony will meet their forecasts. I can only think of 3-4 members here.

Regarding next FY (2023-24), here are my expectations for each Qs:

Q1: 4M
Q2: 6M (Spider-Man 2 should release here)
Q3: 11M
Q4: 4M
Total= 25M

I think Sony will forecast 23/24M for the next FY, but I expect them to slightly over perform it

Ehh, it became pretty clear once the math rolled in early on. and, it doesn't matter if they sell 6m, they could sell 4m or 5m, which should be easy given those percentage increases in markets we get numbers for, and stuff 2m more in the channel easy, if it came to that. but frankly it's selling well enough they dont even need to stuff. even if they supposedly "missed' the target at 6m, IMO it's close enough.

 

[gtj1982]

I don't think they will sell 6.2 million this quarter, my prediction is 5.5 million or slightly less. They only shipped 2 million this quarter in 2022 and we know Europe was not the main focus for shipments so of that 2 million let's just say 500k were for Europe so a 4 times increase yoy would be 2 million for Europe for the quarter which is huge but they also need a 2.5 times increase everywhere else and apart from Japan i don't think that will happen. America's will be really difficult to get a 1.75 times increase because it got decent shipments last year.

Anyway it will be interesting to see what happens, for Q4 here are the records that PS5 might break:

4.72 million record for hybrid (Switch)
5.44 million record for home console (Wii)
5.81 million record for handheld (NDS)

Not in Q1 it didn't. February and March sales were horrible for PS5 in the U.S. And January only went well due to late December shipments.

 

[NediarPT88]

US
January - sales up YOY, sold 369K in 2022
February - sales up 300%+ (>4x) YOY 533k+ in 2023 vs 128K in 2022

EU (doesn't include Germany or UK)
January - sales up 202% (3.02x) YOY source
February - sales up ~400% (5x) YOY source

UK
January - sales up 98% (~2x) YOY source
February - sales up 316% (4.16x) YOY / up 27% over January source

Japan
Sales up 285% (3.85x) YOY
Famitsu: 738.847 (January 2nd to March 19th 2023) vs 192.031 (January 3nd to March 20th 2022)

Last year Sony shipped 2M in this quarter, and we know it sold around ~800k in US and ~250k in Japan during that period.