Sonic Frontiers lifetime sales predictions.

[War Inquisitor]

Announced at The Game Awards 2021, Sonic Frontiers will be the biggest evolution of the series yet, featuring a fully explorable Open World. Today, the first gameplay was shown via IGN First


The game is expected to release in 2022 on Nintendo Switch, PS4, PS5, Xbox One, Xbox Series X/S and PC

Choose an option in the poll or post your predictions below!

 

[War Inquisitor]

First thread so forgive me if it's bad.

Anyway, I'm thinking 2-4M. Specifically a little over 3M if the game is good.

 

[unkindlynice]

+10M - movies are going to help a lot here. Since it’s open world I am expecting a lot of content.

 

[Lelouch0612]

What timeframe do you have in mind ? End of 2022 ? 1st year sales ? Lifetime ?

 

[War Inquisitor]

What timeframe do you have in mind ? End of 2022 ? 1st year sales ? Lifetime ?

Lifetime. I'll edit the title or poll if necessary. I just need to figure out how.

 

[fiendcode]

Didn't Forces end up way higher than anyone expected?

 

[Blue Monty]

I don't think we will ever know it, Sega doesn't post milestones of their games almost ever nowadays outside of the first one. For example we have 0 official sources of Sonic Forces unit sales even if we know it did great so outside of the game breaking franchise records I don't see us ever knowing LTD number. Even then I expect quite a bit more than any post-genesis Sonic game so around 6m

 

[Mendinso]

Honestly, I think 1-2 Million is a given, but 2-4 Million "might" be possible. I'll go with the former to be safer.

That said, with the movie exploding in popularity and generally Sega taking their time to really play and audience test this, it could in theory do well, especially if word of mouth is good. I might actually be underestimating it on my end, honestly.

Very curious how Sega intends to market this in Japan, admittedly... Sonic Forces actually had decent marketing for a change, though it was clearly aimed at the Adult fans who grew up with the series. Curious if Sega will try and turn this around for Frontiers or not...

 

[ILikeFeet]

I don't think this leaves a good first impression. it's so unfocused. could improve, but definitely a stumble out of the gate. if it improves like I hope it does, I can see up to 3M. Switch being the best selling platform, but this video has a lot of performance issues despite (probably) running on a higher end system. the Switch port might suffer from poor performance which could hurt it

 

[War Inquisitor]

 

[ILikeFeet]

still waiting on the footage that makes me think "yep, this is gonna do well"

 

[awng782]

How much have previous Sonic games sold lifetime?

 

[Bad Contestant]

The footage thus far has underwhelmed me so I'm not expecting glowing reviews. I went with 2-4m. With discounts and the good will from the films, I think that's probably on the realistic low end of the spectrum.

 

[Papergoes5634]

For those that voted 10m+, what Sonic game in recent years sold that much? It will probably sell decently, but that most modern Sonic games nowadays. Hell, even Forces sold decently.

 

[MikeMyers]

Hard to know individual Sonic sales since Sega only gives IP data away. The seires has a whole did 4.4 million in 2020 and then 5.8 million in 2021.

 

[Blue Monty]

Hard to know individual Sonic sales since Sega only gives IP data away. The seires has a whole did 4.4 million in 2020 and then 5.8 million in 2021.

They count free downloads as series sales, that's why the numbers are so high and there are big jumps when a Sonic mobile game releases (also they tend to publish sales of the first quarter of the game but after that unless they reach some really special milestone or we get comparisons with future games there is no data)

 

[MikeMyers]

They count free downloads as series sales, that's why the numbers are so high and there are big jumps when a Sonic mobile game releases (also they tend to publish sales of the first quarter of the game but after that unless they reach some really special milestone or we get comparisons with future games there is no data)

Here's the 4.4 stat:

Games mentioned are Racing, Olympics, Mania and Generations. No mention of mobile games so I think it is genuine PC/consoles sales.

 

[awng782]

Here's the 4.4 stat:

Games mentioned are Racing, Olympics, Mania and Generations. No mention of mobile games so I think it is genuine PC/consoles sales.

Notice the "etc" at the end, so it's not just those 4 games that made up the 4.4M stat.

Also note that Football Manager includes sales of the mobile entries, so Sega clearly doesn't have an issue counting mobile downloads with console/PC sales.

 

[MikeMyers]

Ah fair enough, I'm just questioning if they are counting F2P downloads or actual mobile purchases then?

Either way those four games would make up the majority of those sales.

 

[Vault-Tec]

I think it's going to sell well thanks to the movies and the open-world.

 

[Jimmy Joe]

I want to say lower than some people would expect at first blush, but I find it very hard to make an educated guess because Sega doesn't really talk about how their games sell, do they?

I've never heard concrete numbers attached to Mania or Forces or what have you

 

[Josh5890]

I went 4-6m, but I feel like that was high balled. I want to be optimistic, but what we have seen so far does not get me excited for the game.

Maybe it launches to good buzz and wom, but I'm not feeling it at the moment. I agree that the films will help push the game, but only to a certain extent.

 

[War Inquisitor]

 

[Hidden04]

IGN marketed the game better than SEGA lol. SEGA, pull yourself together!

 

[Hidden04]

 

[BassForever]

I expect like most Sonic games, it'll sell well but review poorly so Sega will throw the baby out with the bathwater (again) and try something radically different next time.

 

[Garlic]

Honestly I'm not comfortable forecasting anything for this game until reviews hit. Sonic Team has a lot to prove quality-wise

 

[ILikeFeet]

initial impressions are cautiously optimistic. a number of the outlets posting their impressions are also baffled by the poor initial rollout. there's time for Sega to recover at least

 

[Dothezelda1]

Alright, it’s almost two days until launch!

My final prediction for Sonic Frontiers, based on positive WoM coming from recent trailers, promotions, and first impressions from people who played it, is much higher than it was before. I’m predicting a metacritic score in the low 80s and 5-6 million LTD, with the potential for higher sales depending on how it holds.

I think people are really underselling the importance of the movies when making predictions. These movies did a lot to improve brand recognition and introduced a lot of people to the franchise itself. A new 3-D sonic game with good WoM could directly appeal to the new audience coming from the movies.

 

[BTB123]

Alright, it’s almost two days until launch!

My final prediction for Sonic Frontiers, based on positive WoM coming from recent trailers, promotions, and first impressions from people who played it, is much higher than it was before. I’m predicting a metacritic score in the low 80s and 5-6 million LTD, with the potential for higher sales depending on how it holds.

I think people are really underselling the importance of the movies when making predictions. These movies did a lot to improve brand recognition and introduced a lot of people to the franchise itself. A new 3-D sonic game with good WoM could directly appeal to the new audience coming from the movies.

It's launching tomorrow, less than one day. 74 metascore right now.

 

[AruanaRiva]

2-3m at most i feel.

Sonic for me personally is tainted IP especially in gaming sphere. We will see if this one can reverse the trend but atm i dont see much change.