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September 2022 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Wednesday, October 19 [RESULTS IN]

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NEW RULES + EXPLANATION
Because Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities decided to stop subscribing to NPD this year, access to retail NPD appears to have been massively limited. Whether that's due to firms getting NPD through Pachter or agreeing with him that NPD data is worthless without digital sales (only video game companies that are on the digital board have access), leaks of hardware numbers might've dried up.

Fear not! I have a plan to remedy this set back so that this game can live on spirit. We will be transitioning away from predicting hardware units by console and instead be predicting Total Video Game Hardware Revenue and Order Of Consoles.

Every month NPD releases hardware revenue along with which console was in first place. We can always ask Mat Piscatella for the #2 console if he doesn't initially provide it.

How This Will Work
Predict how much revenue will be generated by Hardware for the given month as such

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good                Bad
[REV] 405M          [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000   [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000     [REV] - 405000000

Then: Predict the order of each console FOR REVENUE as such

1. [NSW]
2. [PS5]
3. [XBS]

THE ABOVE IS IMPORTANT

The above is how you rank each console in terms of REVENUE. If you put NSW at 1., you are predicting NSW will be #1 in revenue.

Points
Hardware Revenue will be 50 points and follows how the hardware unit points work.

50 points * (percentage of correct revenue for hardware); anything over 100% difference = 0 points.

Correct Order would be the following in points.

If #1 correct = 18
If #2 correct = 10
If #3 correct = 7

If All Three correct = 15


That would be a total of 50 points to earn from console placements.

100 points in total to earn a month from the above two, plus bonus points for finishing in the Top 10 of hardware revenue.

#1 - 17 points
#2 - 13 points
#3 - 11 points
#4 - 9 points
#5 - 7 points
#6 - 5 points
#7 - 4 points
#8 - 3 points
#9 - 2 points
#10 - 1 point

Tradition Is Dead?
Not exactly. You will still put numbers down as if the game never changed. This will be your Unit ranking. Because I don't know if/when numbers will be made available again, there's always the potential they pop up again. If that happens, I want all of us to still make predictions as we have in the past.

RECAP
The 1.2.3. placements are how you will be ranking each platform for revenue. So if it's revealed PS5 was #1 in revenue and you had PS5 as 1., you get points for that.

The "traditional" predictions for unit sales will be separate to that. You can put whatever number you want there. You could have PS5 as 1. for revenue, but say you aren't sure about units and want to hedge your bets on Xbox being the actual unit lead. Example prediction below:

1. [PS5] 200K
2. [XBS] 300K
3. [NSW] 100K

This user has PS5 winning revenue, but Xbox for units. This is a valid prediction. How points are calculated are still the same 50 points assigned, but like this.

Each ranking still has the same value, If #1 correct = 18, If #2 correct = 10, If #3 correct = 7. If the revenue and unit results have the same placements, then nothing changes.

If revenue and unit placements/results are different, then points will be halved. Take the above example and we'll say the actual results are PS5 > XBS > NSW in both revenue and units.

The above predictor would get 9 points for predicting PS5 on top of revenue, but not the full 18 due to the unit placement. They would get 5 points for XBS for the same reason as PS5, then 7 points for NSW.

There are also bonus points for If All Three correct = 15. In this user's case, they'd only get 7.5 points as they got the correct revenue order, but not units.

In total they'd have 28.5 / 50 points.



ITT, predict for the NPD September 2022 retail period (August 28, 2022 - October 1, 2022) for U.S. hardware REVENUE and UNIT placements.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations. (Only used for Hardware Units)
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?:
Despite not receiving numbers from NPD directly since 2010, we have always found ways of obtaining them, whether through official company PR or leaks. These threads are also a place for the community to discuss the upcoming releases and current state of the US market as well as potential impacts in the future. In the end, it's for fun!

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Wednesday, October 19th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: August 28, 2022 - October 1, 2022 (5 weeks, August was 4 weeks)
NPD Results Release: Thursday, October 20 @ 4 p.m. EST (PR+thread posted Friday, October 21 around 9 a.m EST)

Format:

[REV]

1. [NSW] XXX
2. [PS5] XXX
3. [XBS] XXX

Note: Combined totals for multi-SKUs. e.g. PS5 physical and digital edition total go under PS5. Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S total goes under XBS.

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good                Bad
[REV] 405M          [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000   [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000     [REV] - 405000000

Code:
Good              Bad
[XBS] 1200K       [XBS] 1.2 million
[XBS] 1,200,000   [XBS] 1.200.000
[XBS] 1200000     [XBS] - 1200000

Potential hardware impacting events in September:
PS5 and Series X shortages - 28 days
PS5 and Series X availability improvements - 28 days
Splatoon 3 - 23 days

Video Game Hardware Prices
Switch: $199/$299/$349/$359 (Lite/Regular/OLED/Slaptoon 3 OLED)
Xbox Series: $299/$499 (S/X)
PS5: $399/$499 | $449/$549 (Digital/Regular) | (Digital bundle/Regular bundle)

Older Hardware & Arcade cabinets: ??? (This is a factor but a small one)

Recent History Of September Hardware Revenue
Screen_Shot_2022-10-02_at_12.06.11_AM.png


August 2021 NPD thread
September 2021 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
Last edited:
[REV] 429M

1. [PS5] 395K
2. [NSW] 385K
3. [XBS] 240K
 
Last edited:
[REV] 450M

1. [PS5] 390K
2. [NSW] 406K
3. [XBS] 320K
 
Last edited:
[REV] 450M

1. [PS5] 360K
2. [XBS] 320K
3. [NSW] 370K
 
Last edited:
September 2022 Full Month (August 28 - October 01)

PS5 - NPD: ???
Week #StoresSource Post
1AmazonSource
2GameStop / Walmart / Amazon / Sony DirectSource
3Amazon / CostcoSource
4Amazon / Sony DirectSource
5Walmart / Amazon / AntonlineSource

Xbox Series - NPD: ???
Week #StoresSource
1AmazonSource
2AmazonSource
3AmazonSource
4AmazonSource
5AmazonSource

Notes
Major Amazon update: The Xbox Series S vanished from the rankings June 17th and hasn't come back. This isn't due to a drop in sales, even previous months results have disappeared. I don't know why this happened.

Amazon full month rankings: #9 PS5 Horizon Bundle $549 / #17 Xbox Series X $499 / (Amazon full month goes from September 01 to September 30) Source | PS5 $499 was also sold some weeks but not enough to enter the Top 100

Best Buy is selling units in store on a store by store basis. These sales don't get announced, but online drops will still be reported.

Xbox Series S is in stock at every major and small retailer.

Xbox Series X was in stock at Walmart, Best Buy, and the MS Store the whole month. Target ran out mid way through.

Target now sells Xbox Series X|S and PS5 in store as stores get units, no longer on event schedule.

Amazon sold PS5 and Series X every week in August.

September should be a better month than August for PS5. Walmart and Sony Direct managed to keep units in stock multiple days after initial drops multiple times. Target would also be a silent seller. We also have other reports of increased shipments YOY and Chris Doing hearing that September was the best stock has been in a year.

Xbox might not have the best results. Target began running out of stock part way into September which has not recovered. Right at the start of October (outside of this tracking) Best Buy sold out of Series X, so it's possible stock was running out towards the end of the month.
 
Install Base Prediction Average
REV: 433.39M (Standard deviation = 19M)

NSW: 378K (Standard deviation = 24K)
PS5: 371K (Standard deviation = 30K)
XBS: 303K (Standard deviation = 30K)
 
Revenue:
#1 PS5
#2 Xbox Series
#3 Switch


Units:
#1 PS5
#2 Switch
#3 Xbox Series


These have the ranking right:
But everyone underestimated total $ spend
[REV] 444M

1. [PS5] 393K
2. [XBS] 303K
3. [NSW] 363K

[REV] 425M

1. [PS5] 345K
2. [XBS] 290K
3. [NSW] 330K

[REV] 422M

1. [PS5] 367K
2. [XBS] 321K
3. [NSW] 325K

[REV] 444M

1. [PS5] 400K
2. [XBS] 300K
3. [NSW] 375K
 
Congrats to those picking PS5 first for units.

Maybe I'll have the courage next month. But holiday season is coming up so....lol.

And I changed my numbers so many times....
 
Revenue:
#1 PS5
#2 Xbox Series
#3 Switch


Units:
#1 PS5
#2 Switch
#3 Xbox Series


These have the ranking right:
But everyone underestimated total $ spend
You missed me :(

Looks like I did best for the month, not sure why everyone went so low on revenue given it's a 5wk month.

[REV] 469M

1. [PS5] 400K
2. [XBS] 350K
3. [NSW] 370K

I even underestimated revenue by a fair bit.
 
NPD Prediction Results - September 2022

Revenue


Result: $490M

1. donny2112 - 15,000,000
2. Xevross - 21,000,000
3. The_Liquid_Laser - 39,000,000
4. Fatih_656 - 40,000,000
4. BTB123 - 40,000,000
6. SoonyXboneUhh - 45,000,000
7. Myriotes - 46,000,000
7. m051293 - 46,000,000
9. jroc74 - 50,000,000
9. Astrogamer - 50,000,000
11. GaiusBaltar25 - 55,000,000
12. Malden - 60,000,000
12. awng782 - 60,000,000
12. Astral_lion02 - 60,000,000
15. Welfare - 61,000,000
16. Anthony_The_Ghost - 65,000,000
17. Kenka - 68,000,000
18. Joxer - 70,000,000
19. DeuceGamer - 77,000,000
20. IronTed - 79,000,000
21. Tbone5189 - 81,000,000
22. Ystad - 85,000,000
23. Wilmbreak - 89,000,000

Congrats to @donny2112 . This was a bad month for revenue, we all came under the actual result. 2/23 (9%) predictors were within 5% of the actual result, 8/23 (35%) were within 10%.

Points
Now points will not include the two lowest results.

Code:
September 2022                     Overall 2022 (7/9)
1.  Xevross          110.86        Xevross           583.22
2.  m051293           99.31        Tbone5189         561.44
3.  Myriotes          99.31        Welfare           558.32
4.  Anthony_The_Ghost 93.37        IronTed           558.01
5.  Kenka             93.06        Myriotes          542.37
6.  donny2112         82.97        SoonyXboneUhh     536.56
7.  BTB123            75.92        Malden            526.73
8.  Astral_lion02     70.38        m051293           517.48
9.  awng782           70.38        DeuceGamer        509.72
10. Welfare           70.28        Astrogamer        495.21
11. The_Liquid_Laser  69.52        Fatih_656         489.70
12. jroc74            67.90        jroc74            478.85
13. Fatih_656         67.42        reksveks          475.79
14. GaiusBaltar25     65.39        Astral_lion02     475.56
15. Malden            64.88        Cobalt            474.02
16. Joxer             63.86        awng782           466.95
17. SoonyXboneUhh     62.91        Wilmbreak         441.32
18. Tbone5189         62.73        Joxer             439.46
19. Astrogamer        59.40        Kenka             419.44
20. DeuceGamer        54.64        BTB123            393.67
21. IronTed           54.44        The_Liquid_Laser  342.44
22. Ystad             53.83        donny2112         332.69
23. Wilmbreak         53.42        Luke88            300.69
24.                                Ystad             282.93
25.                                Lelouch0612       274.69
26.                                Ystad             225.77
27.                                Ryng™             211.01
28.                                Rellik            192.66
29.                                Josh5890          178.98
30.                                TurnoftheCentury  169.74
31.                                Abzeronow         168.65
32.                                Anthony_The_Ghost 163.70
33.                                MysticGon         142.82
34.                                Nocturnal         126.67
35.                                KillerMan         104.66
36.                                Shadow of the Void 99.81
37.                                TrunksWD           99.33
38.                                Luminoth 4545      98.00
39.                                Grimstat           96.30
40.                                Pancracio17        94.66
41.                                Bernd Lauert       86.26
42.                                DarkDetective      80.70
43.                                POE                69.82
44.                                Radagon07          69.79
45.                                GaiusBaltar25      65.39
46.                                Salesman           21.00
47.                                Aleh               10.00
48.                                allan-bh           10.00
49.                                Banjokazooie1992   10.00
50.                                Bruno MB           10.00

Congratulations to @Xevross for winning Points!
 
I'm so sorry :D
I won't take it personally!
NPD Prediction Results - September 2022

Revenue


Result: $490M

1. donny2112 - 15,000,000
2. Xevross - 21,000,000
3. The_Liquid_Laser - 39,000,000
4. Fatih_656 - 40,000,000
4. BTB123 - 40,000,000
6. SoonyXboneUhh - 45,000,000
7. Myriotes - 46,000,000
7. m051293 - 46,000,000
9. jroc74 - 50,000,000
9. Astrogamer - 50,000,000
11. GaiusBaltar25 - 55,000,000
12. Malden - 60,000,000
12. awng782 - 60,000,000
12. Astral_lion02 - 60,000,000
15. Welfare - 61,000,000
16. Anthony_The_Ghost - 65,000,000
17. Kenka - 68,000,000
18. Joxer - 70,000,000
19. DeuceGamer - 77,000,000
20. IronTed - 79,000,000
21. Tbone5189 - 81,000,000
22. Ystad - 85,000,000
23. Wilmbreak - 89,000,000

Congrats to @donny2112 . This was a bad month for revenue, we all came under the actual result. 2/23 (9%) predictors were within 5% of the actual result, 8/23 (35%) were within 10%.

Points
Now points will not include the two lowest results.

Code:
September 2022                     Overall 2022 (7/9)
1.  Xevross          110.86        Xevross           583.22
2.  m051293           99.31        Tbone5189         561.44
3.  Myriotes          99.31        Welfare           558.32
4.  Anthony_The_Ghost 93.37        IronTed           558.01
5.  Kenka             93.06        Myriotes          542.37
6.  donny2112         82.97        SoonyXboneUhh     536.56
7.  BTB123            75.92        Malden            526.73
8.  Astral_lion02     70.38        m051293           517.48
9.  awng782           70.38        DeuceGamer        509.72
10. Welfare           70.28        Astrogamer        495.21
11. The_Liquid_Laser  69.52        Fatih_656         489.70
12. jroc74            67.90        jroc74            478.85
13. Fatih_656         67.42        reksveks          475.79
14. GaiusBaltar25     65.39        Astral_lion02     475.56
15. Malden            64.88        Cobalt            474.02
16. Joxer             63.86        awng782           466.95
17. SoonyXboneUhh     62.91        Wilmbreak         441.32
18. Tbone5189         62.73        Joxer             439.46
19. Astrogamer        59.40        Kenka             419.44
20. DeuceGamer        54.64        BTB123            393.67
21. IronTed           54.44        The_Liquid_Laser  342.44
22. Ystad             53.83        donny2112         332.69
23. Wilmbreak         53.42        Luke88            300.69
24.                                Ystad             282.93
25.                                Lelouch0612       274.69
26.                                Ystad             225.77
27.                                Ryng™             211.01
28.                                Rellik            192.66
29.                                Josh5890          178.98
30.                                TurnoftheCentury  169.74
31.                                Abzeronow         168.65
32.                                Anthony_The_Ghost 163.70
33.                                MysticGon         142.82
34.                                Nocturnal         126.67
35.                                KillerMan         104.66
36.                                Shadow of the Void 99.81
37.                                TrunksWD           99.33
38.                                Luminoth 4545      98.00
39.                                Grimstat           96.30
40.                                Pancracio17        94.66
41.                                Bernd Lauert       86.26
42.                                DarkDetective      80.70
43.                                POE                69.82
44.                                Radagon07          69.79
45.                                GaiusBaltar25      65.39
46.                                Salesman           21.00
47.                                Aleh               10.00
48.                                allan-bh           10.00
49.                                Banjokazooie1992   10.00
50.                                Bruno MB           10.00

Congratulations to @Xevross for winning Points!
Well now it's time to overthink everything for the last 3 months of the year with the pressure of trying to hold the lead.
 
Seems like both PS5 & NSW must have been over 400K, given how high revenue ended up exceeding predictions.


I won't take it personally!

Well now it's time to overthink everything for the last 3 months of the year with the pressure of trying to hold the lead.

I'm coming for you my friend, got to defend that title.
 
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