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Sales Expectations for New 1st Party games in the Nintendo Direct

Luminoth 4545

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Your sales expectation for first Party Nintendo games that were announced during the recent Nintendo Direct (Metroid Prime 4 was previously announced but i'm including it because it was it's first reveal). These are Mario and Luigi: Brothership, Donkey Kong Country Returns HD, Super Mario Party: Jamboree, The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom and Metroid Prime 4: Beyond. For Metroid Prime 4 your expectations are for the Switch version and potential Switch 2 version combined.

Mario & Luigi Brothership: 3 million - No "Switch effect" here but should still sell decent.
DKC returns HD: 4.5 million - Likely another full price remaster but i still expect it to sell close to the Switch version of DCK:TF.
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 12 to 15 million - Sequel to a juggernaut so should blast past the 10 million mark.
LOZ: Echoes of Wisdom: 7.5 million - A brand new game so i expect it to do a little better than LA despite being a late gen release.
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 4 million - Surely with all the hype it will outsell Metroid Dread.


Series sales performance for reference, Nintendo only reveals sales data for software that sells 1 million units or more


Mario & Luigi Series

YearPlatformTitleSales (millions)
2003GBAMario & Luigi: Superstar Saga2.15
2005NDSMario & Luigi: Partners in Time1.73
2009NDSMario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story4.56
20133DSMario & Luigi: Dream Team2.70
20153DSMario & Luigi: Paper Jam1.08
2024NSWMario & Luigi: Brothership???

> 1 million units: 2017 [3DS] Superstar Saga + Bowser's Minions, 2018 [3DS] Bowser's inside Story + Bowser Junior's Journey.

Donkey Kong Country Series

YearPlatformTitleSales (millions)
1994SNESDonkey Kong Country9.30
1995SNESDonkey Kong Country 25.15
1996SNESDonkey Kong Country 33.51
2000GBCDonkey Kong Country2.19
2003GBADonkey Kong Country1.82
2010WIIDonkey Kong Country Returns6.53
20133DSDonkey Kong Country Returns2.94
2014WII UDonkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze2.02
2018NSWDonkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze4.62
2025NSWDonkey Kong Country Returns HD???

> 1 million units: 2004 [GBA] Donkey Kong Country 2, 2005 [GBA] Donkey Kong Country 3.

Mario Party series


YearPlatformTitleSales (millions)
1998N64Mario Party2.70
1999N64Mario Party 22.48
2000N64Mario party 31.91
2002GCNMario Party 42.46
2003GCNMario Party 52.17
2004GCNMario Party 61.63
2005GCNMario Party 72.08
2007WIIMario Party 88.85
2007NDSMario party DS9.31
2012WIIMario party 93.11
20133DSMario Party Island Tour2.95
2015WII UMario Party 102.27
2018NSWSuper Mario Party20.66
2021NSWMario Party Superstars12.89
2024NSWSuper Mario Party Jamboree???

> 1 million units: 2005 [GBA] Mario Party Advance, 2016 [3DS] Mario Party Star Rush, 2017 [3DS] Mario Party The Top 100.

Top Down Legend of Zelda Series

YearPlatformTitleSales (millions)
1986NESLegend of Zelda6.51
1988NESThe Adventure of Link4.38
1991SNESA Link to the Past4.61
1993GBLink's Awakening3.83
1998GBCLink's Awakening DX2.22
2001GBCOracle of Ages/ Seasons3.99
2002GBAA Link to the Past & Four Swords2.82
2004GBAThe Minish Cap1.76
2007NDSPhantom Hourglass4.76
2009NDSSpirit Tracks2.96
20133DSA Link Between Worlds4.24
20153DSTriforce Heroes1.36
2019NSWLink's Awakening6.63
2024NSWEchoes of Wisdom???

> 1 million Units: 2003 [GCN] Four Swords Adventures.

Metroid Prime Series

YearPlatformTitleSales (millions)
2002GCNMetroid Prime2.93
2004GCNMetroid Prime 2 Echoes1.10
2006NDSMetroid Prime Hunters1.08
2007WIIMetroid Prime 3 Corruption1.41
2023NSWMetroid Prime Remastered1.36
2025NSWMetroid Prime 4 Beyond???

> 1 million units: 2005 [NDS] Metroid Prime Pinball, 2009 [WII] Metroid Prime Trilogy, 2015 [3DS] Metroid Prime Federation Force.
 
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Mario & Luigi Brothership: 3.5 million
DKC returns HD: 2 million
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 15~20 million
LOZ: Ecoes of Wisdom: 11 million
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 6 million
 
LTD(Let's say 5 year)
Mario & Luigi Brothership: 3.6 million
DKC returns HD: 2.2 million
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 18 million
LOZ: Ecoes of Wisdom: 7 million
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 5.5 million
 
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Mario & Luigi Brothership: 4 million
DKC returns HD: 2.5 million
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 16 million
LOZ: Ecoes of Wisdom: 8 million
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 5.5 million
 
Mario & Luigi Brothership: 3.4 million
DKC returns HD: 2.2 million
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 9.8 million
LOZ: Echoes of Wisdom: 7.1 million
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 6.3 million
 
Mario & Luigi Brothership: 4 million
DKC returns HD: 4 million
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 13.5 million
LOZ: Echoes of Wisdom: 8 million
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 5.5 million

Extra credit time:

LM2: 2.5-3 million
Nintendo World Championship: 1.5 million
 
Super Mario Party Jamboree - 17 million
Mario & Luigi: Brothership - 3 million
Donkey Kong Country Returns HD - 3 million
The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom - 5 million
Metroid Prime 4: Beyond - 5 million
 
Mario & Luigi Brothership: 3 million
DKC returns HD: 2 million
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 9 million
LOZ: Ecoes of Wisdom: 7 million
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 5 million
 
Ask me again in a week and these numbers would probably be different but here we go anyway haha

Mario & Luigi Brothership: 3 million
This has the benefit of having a November release slot and being a brand new entry in a dormant franchise. That said I don't know how much legs it will have. Outside the dedicated fans, Nintendo may be cannibalizing sales by having 3 different Mario RPGs all out within 12 months of each other.

Donkey Kong Country Returns HD: 2 million
Tropical Freeze had an entire generation as the only DKC on Switch and has sold 4.6 million. Returns I think will be around half of that. January release slot (when Switch 2 may not be that far away) along with nothing new added to a game that already got plenty of attention on popular platforms like Wii and 3DS.


Super Mario Party Jamboree: 9 million
It's the 3rd entry of this franchise on Switch. Super Mario Party sold over 20 million and Mario Party Superstars is over 12 million. I expect diminishing returns to continue for when we get the fiscal year results for this game in, but Mario Party is a legs monster so of all their games in the Direct I think this one will sell the best overall and stay in the charts the longest.

The Legend of Zelda Echoes of Wisdom: 6 million
This one is the hardest for me to guess. It's the first original 2D Zelda in an incredibly long time, and has the most people buzzing after that Direct thanks to its novel game mechanics and starring Princess Zelda. I do think it has strong potential to sell to a new audience beyond the traditional 2D Zelda players if word of mouth spreads about the crazy stuff you can do in this game, and the Link's Awakening remake is over 6 million. If we weren't at the end of the Switch generation I think my expectations would've been higher on this one.

Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 4 million
I'm going to assume this gets a simultaneous dual SKU release on both Switch and its successor. If it's Switch-only somehow then my prediction would be half of this. We don't know much about the game but at the very least it's carrying forward the traditional core mechanics of the Prime series, so this isn't some total overhaul of the series. I think the trailer is largely speaking to the core Metroid fans right now, if it can appeal to an audience outside of that then great.
 
Mario & Luigi Brothership: 3.4 million
DKC returns HD: 2.2 million
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 9.8 million
LOZ: Echoes of Wisdom: 7.1 million
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 6.3 million
I think if Super Mario Party: Jamboree is high quality (so far, so good) than it will sell far more than you would expect of a late gen game that is the third iteration on the same platform.

-----

Ask me again in a week and these numbers would probably be different but here we go anyway haha

Mario & Luigi Brothership: 3 million
This has the benefit of having a November release slot and being a brand new entry in a dormant franchise. That said I don't know how much legs it will have. Outside the dedicated fans, Nintendo may be cannibalizing sales by having 3 different Mario RPGs all out within 12 months of each other.

Donkey Kong Country Returns HD: 2 million
Tropical Freeze had an entire generation as the only DKC on Switch and has sold 4.6 million. Returns I think will be around half of that. January release slot (when Switch 2 may not be that far away) along with nothing new added to a game that already got plenty of attention on popular platforms like Wii and 3DS.


Super Mario Party Jamboree: 9 million
It's the 3rd entry of this franchise on Switch. Super Mario Party sold over 20 million and Mario Party Superstars is over 12 million. I expect diminishing returns to continue for when we get the fiscal year results for this game in, but Mario Party is a legs monster so of all their games in the Direct I think this one will sell the best overall and stay in the charts the longest.

The Legend of Zelda Echoes of Wisdom: 6 million
This one is the hardest for me to guess. It's the first original 2D Zelda in an incredibly long time, and has the most people buzzing after that Direct thanks to its novel game mechanics and starring Princess Zelda. I do think it has strong potential to sell to a new audience beyond the traditional 2D Zelda players if word of mouth spreads about the crazy stuff you can do in this game, and the Link's Awakening remake is over 6 million. If we weren't at the end of the Switch generation I think my expectations would've been higher on this one.

Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 4 million
I'm going to assume this gets a simultaneous dual SKU release on both Switch and its successor. If it's Switch-only somehow then my prediction would be half of this. We don't know much about the game but at the very least it's carrying forward the traditional core mechanics of the Prime series, so this isn't some total overhaul of the series. I think the trailer is largely speaking to the core Metroid fans right now, if it can appeal to an audience outside of that then great.
Ouch for DK Returns, 2 million would be a disappointment. The footage looks a bit rough (missing graphical effects) but it should be polished up by launch, the 3DS version will be 12 years old so there will be many new players that have never played it. I am surprised that there is no easy mode because these games can be especially frustrating for children.

-----

Mario & Luigi Brothership: 4 million
DKC returns HD: 4 million
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 13.5 million
LOZ: Echoes of Wisdom: 8 million
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 5.5 million

Extra credit time:

LM2: 2.5-3 million
Nintendo World Championship: 1.5 million
Hopefully you are right with your Metroid Prime 4 prediction, it will massively benefit if it's a launch title for the new Switch. Also Luigi Mansion 2 is getting a lot of negativity online with it's "bad" controls and high price but even i would be surprised if it sold as low as 3 million.
 
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Hopefully you are right with your Metroid Prime 4 prediction, it will massively benefit if it's a launch title for the new Switch. Also Luigi Mansion 2 is getting a lot of negativity online with it's "bad" controls and high price but even i would be surprised if it sold as low as 3 million.
I agree. I went low intentionally oddly enough caving into the price complaints. (Didn't hear about the controls discourse). Hoping it outsells the 3ds version or gets close. 🙂
 
Love the thread.
Mario & Luigi Brothership: 2,5 million
DKC returns HD: 2,5 million
Super Mario Party Jamboree 9 million
LOZ: Echoes of Wisdom: 6 million
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 4,5 million
 
Mario & Luigi Brothership: 2.87 million
DKC returns HD: 3.21 million
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 10.92 million
LOZ: Echoes of Wisdom: 4.6 million
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 3.89million
 
Ouch for DK Returns, 2 million would be a disappointment. The footage looks a bit rough (missing graphical effects) but it should be polished up by launch, the 3DS version will be 12 years old so there will be many new players that have never played it. I am surprised that there is no easy mode because these games can be specially frustrating for children.

DKCR HD I think will post a similar result for the quarter to the recent early year platformers like Kirby's RTDL Deluxe (1.46m) and the remake of Mario vs. DK (1.12m).

The performance this year of LM2 HD may help in better adjusting expectations due to being a similar remaster effort? Though I think that one is dealing with a much more popular brand too (LM3 at 14 million, DKCTF at 4 million)
 
Lifetime:
Mario & Luigi Brothership: 3.5 million
DKC returns HD: 3 million
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 12 million
LOZ: Echoes of Wisdom: 6 million
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 5 million

Extra credit time:
LM2: 2 million
Nintendo World Championship: 1 million

Note:
Last year for the Switch, a lot depends on the next console, especially Metroid Prime 4
Mario RPGs seems to have a cap at around 4m, and I don't think Brothership would change that
DKC Returns, not expecting much cuz it's a remaster but theme park expansion might push sales
Mario Party should sell over 10m, but it's very late in the Switch's lifecycle so maybe not
Zelda should sell close to the Remake
MP4 is just wishful thinking. So far I'm leaning towards 3m, but I trust Retro/Nintendo is cooking something

LM2 some people say Luigi mansion blah blah, but let's face reality, a remaster of the least popular Luigi Mansion game at full price is not going to sell that well. NES Champion is cool plus cheap, so maybe I'm underestimating it but I don't see the reason many people would buy it when you could play most of those games on NOS.
 
Mario Party series

YearPlatformTitleSales (millions)
1998N64Mario Party2.70
1999N64Mario Party 22.48
2000N64Mario party 31.91
2002GCNMario Party 42.46
2003GCNMario Party 52.17
2004GCNMario Party 61.63
2005GCNMario Party 72.08
2007WIIMario Party 88.85
2007NDSMario party DS9.31
2011WIIMario party 93.11
20133DSMario Party Island Tour2.95
2015WII UMario Party 102.27
2018NSWSuper Mario Party20.66
2021NSWMario Party Superstars12.89
2024NSWSuper Mario Party Jamboree???

> 1 million units: 2005 [GBA] Mario Party Advance, 2016 [3DS] Mario Party Star Rush, 2017 [3DS] Mario Party The Top 100.

Top Down Legend of Zelda Series

YearPlatformTitleSales (millions)
1986NESLegend of Zelda6.51
1988NESThe Adventure of Link4.38
1991SNESA Link to the Past4.61
1993GBLink's Awakening3.83
1998GBCLink's Awakening DX2.22
2001GBCOracle of Ages/ Seasons3.99
2002GBAA Link to the Past & Four Swords2.82
2004GBAThe Minish Cap1.76
2007NDSPhantom Hourglass4.76
2009NDSSpirit Tracks2.96
20133DSA Link Between Worlds4.24
20153DSTriforce Heroes1.36
2019NSWLink's Awakening6.63
2024NSWEchoes of Wisdom???

> 1 million Units: 2003 [GCN] Four Swords Adventures.
You have a few release years wrong here. Mario Party 9 released in 2012 and Zelda II released in 1987.

Mario & Luigi Brothership: 3.5 million
DKC returns HD: 2.5 million
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 12 million
LOZ: Echoes of Wisdom: 5 million
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 4 million
 
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Mario & Luigi Brothership: 2.5 million
DKC returns HD: 1.5 million
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 8 million
LOZ: Echoes of Wisdom: 4 million
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 4 million


I think I’m a little more pessimistic than most here, but I expect most of these games to have pretty poor legs due to the Switch successor hogging the mindshare spotlight starting next year.

I think MP4 may be boosted by being a Switch successor graphical showcase.
 
You have a few release years wrong here. Mario Party 9 released in 2012 and Zelda II released in 1987.

Mario & Luigi Brothership: 3.5 million
DKC returns HD: 2.5 million
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 12 million
LOZ: Echoes of Wisdom: 5 million
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 4 million
Mario party 9 was released in 2012 so i will fix the error, for Zelda 2 i must have gone with the western release date.
 
Lifetime:
Mario & Luigi Brothership: 3.5 million
DKC returns HD: 3 million
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 12 million
LOZ: Echoes of Wisdom: 6 million
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 5 million

Extra credit time:
LM2: 2 million
Nintendo World Championship: 1 million

Note:
Last year for the Switch, a lot depends on the next console, especially Metroid Prime 4
Mario RPGs seems to have a cap at around 4m, and I don't think Brothership would change that
DKC Returns, not expecting much cuz it's a remaster but theme park expansion might push sales
Mario Party should sell over 10m, but it's very late in the Switch's lifecycle so maybe not
Zelda should sell close to the Remake
MP4 is just wishful thinking. So far I'm leaning towards 3m, but I trust Retro/Nintendo is cooking something

LM2 some people say Luigi mansion blah blah, but let's face reality, a remaster of the least popular Luigi Mansion game at full price is not going to sell that well. NES Champion is cool plus cheap, so maybe I'm underestimating it but I don't see the reason many people would buy it when you could play most of those games on NOS.
I think you're underestimating the Popularity of Luigi, I think of all the Mario characters he is the most popular alongside Yoshi.
 
I think some of you all underestimate how much being late-gen (or perhaps even cross-gen) may impact sales.

Mario & Luigi Brothership: 2.5 million - Late gen game of a series that has no precedent on a console
DKC returns HD: 3 million - Late gen full price remaster of an inferior/older game means it sells less than TF remaster
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 10 million - Big sales for a late gen game
LOZ: Echoes of Wisdom: 7.5 million - Should be a pretty big hit with the gameplay style shown and intrique of playing as Zelda
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 4 million - But virtually impossible to say considering it may end up cross gen and/or may launch while the Switch 2 is out
 
Mario and Luigi Brothership: 2.5-3 million, I think 2 million's an easy lock. It hits 3 if the game is good.
DKC Returns: 3 million, 2 if priced at $60.
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 15 million. This is the holiday game for them.
LoZ: Echoes of Wisdom: 9 million. Hits a more under-served market.
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 4 million, 5-6 with cross platform with Switch successor.
 
These ones are a bit harder to pinpoint because we don’t know how Switch 2 will affect the tails of these games. I am going to assume it will neither hinder nor help them (besides Metroid Prime 4 since that has a high chance of being a launch game).

Metroid Prime 4 - First fiscal year: 5 million | LTD: 8.5 million
Reasoning: I think this will be the biggest Metroid easily and it’ll expand the usual audience for Metroid games. With it being a likely launch title, I think it’ll get a lot of hardcore fans to buy it day one and new buyers of Switch 2 might be enticed by it similar to BotW. I don’t think it’ll explode like BotW did, but I think it’ll have a Kirby and the Forgotten Land level success where it breaks the series out of its usual sales trend and delivers a big, not massive, result.

Donkey Kong Country Returns HD - First fiscal year and LTD: 2.2 million
Reasoning: This is a pretty unremarkable port and I don’t think it’ll make too many waves. But it’ll do a respectable 2ish million and then fall off the face of the earth.

Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom - First fiscal year: 8 million | LTD: 12.6 million.
Reasoning: Zelda is bigger than it’s ever been and I think this is the 2D game that is really going to blow up. The tri rod will make for some viral social media chatter, and I suspect the game will be well received by press and fans. I think the legs on this game will be quite good and will last a while until the next 3D Zelda comes out.

Super Mario Party: Jamboree - First fiscal year: 9.3 million | LTD: 16.9 million
Reasoning: Mario Party is huge right now and I think the casual market is going to eat this up. In addition, I think the 20 people multiplayer mode is going to be very popular and it’ll garner a sizable streaming base. This Mario Party will last probably about two years and I think it’ll have great legs.

EDIT:
I forgot about Mario & Luigi: Brothership!!! First fiscal year: 2.7 million | LTD: 4.4 million
Reasoning: I think with this being a new game it’ll have a lot of hype from fans and it’ll get some new buyers to buy it this holiday. I suspect the legs to do well, but it won’t surpass Bowser’s Inside Story.
 
Mario and Luigi brothership: 4.5 mil
Mario party jamboree: 15-20mil
Legend of Zelda echoes of wisdom: 9mil
Dkreturns: 4mil
Metroid prime 4: 3mil
 
Ouch, people are really starting to hate Nintendo for this.
If it was a bigger effort like Kirby's Return to Dreamland Deluxe with new content and all it would have been fully acceptable. But there doesn't seem to be any new content and if LM2HD is anything to go by (as it looks worse graphically than LM3), the final product is still going to look worse than Tropical Freeze.
 
Mario & Luigi Brothership: 5 million. (it all depends on how good it is ofcourse, could be a bit more or a bit less).
DKC returns HD: 3 million
Super Mario Party Jamboree 10 million
LOZ: Echoes of Wisdom: 7 million
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 10 million (I think people underestimate the expectations here, it has been in development for a long time and looks like it has a good budget behind it. Nintendo will push this hard)
 
Mario & Luigi Brothership: 5 million. (it all depends on how good it is ofcourse, could be a bit more or a bit less).
DKC returns HD: 3 million
Super Mario Party Jamboree 10 million
LOZ: Echoes of Wisdom: 7 million
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 10 million (I think people underestimate the expectations here, it has been in development for a long time and looks like it has a good budget behind it. Nintendo will push this hard)
My one issue is how far will they get trying to push a niche product mainstream.

From the looks of it it’s more 3d metroidvania without any major reinvention.

That’s where my lack of faith is, there highest ceiling for this genre is 3mil Bassically.

I’m not confident Metroid prime can blow past that to 8 digits.
 
These all assume that the same sku is not backcompat on Switch 2.

Mario & Luigi Brothership: 1.5-2 million
DKC returns HD: 2 million
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 8 to 10 million (I think a lot of people buy 1 entry of couch PVP-focused Nintendo games per gen)
LOZ: Echoes of Wisdom: 5 million (People really like remakes and this one's a bit weird)
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 3 million (This is the one that could blow up way higher since shooters are so much more the kinda thing that people play now. I just don't know if it has the name recognition / interest outside the hardcore though.)
 
Mario & Luigi Brothership: 4.5 millions
DKC returns HD: 1.5 million
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 8 millions
LOZ: Ecoes of Wisdom: 7 millions
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 6 millions
 
My apologies for bumping this thread, but I wanted throw my predictions down before the fall arrives.

Mario & Luigi Brothership: 2.5 million I think that there is potential for more if it has a great reception
DKC returns HD: 3 million I don't think that this will move the needle as much as Tropical Freeze did.
Super Mario Party Jamboree: 13 million
Unless Nintendo has another Mario Party game waiting in the wings for the Switch 2's launch year, this should easily hit 10m.
LOZ: Ecoes of Wisdom: 9 million
I talked about it here. I am rather bullish on it.
Metroid Prime 4 Beyond: 4 million
Until Metroid has a 5m+ breakout hit, I'll remain skeptical. I'd love to see it happen.

Sorry I missed this thread earlier!
 
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