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I don't envy Mat as putting a forecast in the open when we don't know price, launch date and software line-up is very difficult haha.
Better to start conservative.
Better to start conservative.
While true, purchasing power is different this time around compared to 2017.a 400USD console would be aproximately the same price as a 300USD console in 2017 in terms of purchasing power due to inflation. Problem is I think it's gonna be 450 at the very least.
Early March, which means we'll probably have more data to base this on without relying on data customs.I wonder when the shipment manifesto for January will drop.
If the April launch theory is verified, that's where we should see a volume of components enough to produce million(s) of final units.
Hm, I’m not so sure, is this a switch 2 or a 2 Nintendo switch? It’s hard to figure out, does it play switch games?
point of salePOS stands for pre-order sales? Just wanting to be sure.
point of sales. the registerPOS stands for pre-order sales? Just wanting to be sure.
I hope everyone likes paying twice as much for external storage than they had to because of this choice.Apparently Gamestop's POS system leaked Switch 2 uses microSD Express cards as they're selling some branded ones (512GB and 1TB).
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Nintendo Switch 2 accessory SKUs listed in GameStop's system - microSD Express Cards and more
Nintendo Switch 2 news coming from GameStop with accessory SKUs now listed, including microSD Express Cards and more.nintendoeverything.com
What's the alternative?I hope everyone likes paying twice as much for external storage than they had to because of this choice.
What's the alternative?
M.2 storage in plastic caddies so all the bits of the board aren’t exposed.What's the alternative?
Matt Piscatella expects the Switch 2 to sell 4,3 million units in the US during 2025:
Would that be good or bad launch year numbers for the Switch 2 in the US?
Thanks, I'll check those out. Based on that Gamestop leak, these seem a bit more expensive than current SD cards (1TB for $150 vs. $130 for officially licensed cards). I'll make do with 400gb or 512gb until prices (hopefully) go down.M.2 storage in plastic caddies so all the bits of the board aren’t exposed.
CFExpress cards
UFS cards (royalty free, same bus as the internal storage)
The only advantage to SD Express is that it’s used in at least one consumer device other than this new hardware, but this hardware is the only device that will move this storage medium in any decent volume (and if they wanted something used in devices, CFExpress has microSD Express beat hands down) and pricing will likely be higher as a result of royalties and lack of ubiquity.
There's a standard, part of the standard for the most used embedded storage method across the electronics industry, and production lines that already exist could easily make them (since the main difference between embedded UFS and the card is in the packaging method). The minuscule number of existing SD Express cards being important (that, again, most customers will never see outside of the licensed and branded ones) is like suggesting a pinch of imported sand in the hand is valuable while you're standing on a sandy beach.UFS cards don't exist. period. SDe cards to exist, even in small amounts for now
It is not an axiomatic law of the universe that sequel Nintendo consoles sell less when that has been the case because of specific reasons and specific contexts from their times. Your hypothesis also ignores the Game Boy to Game Boy advance transition. The specific reasons for Switch 2 might be in its favor this time. We don’t know yet.This is a sequel Nintendo console also a follow up to a successful era. Nintendo has never had two huge successes in a row and the sequel never outsells the first one. This could be their flop era again as it always has been multiple times in the past. It’s the most obvious and safe prediction. Switch 2 isn’t to going outsell the Switch 1 based patterns and history alone.
I mean, that describes SDe as well. Making the card isn't even the hard part for any of these, it's justifying them. And SDe is easier to justify since they can allow people to use their old cards and readers. No ufs readers exist, even if they're not hard to make, easier to just reuse what's already being made.There's a standard, part of the standard for the most used embedded storage method across the electronics industry, and production lines that already exist could easily make them (since the main difference between embedded UFS and the card is in the packaging method). The minuscule number of existing SD Express cards being important (that, again, most customers will never see outside of the licensed and branded ones) is like suggesting a pinch of imported sand in the hand is valuable while you're standing on a sandy beach.
You are telling me that the chances to outsell the best selling gaming console (soon to be) are low!? MADNESS!This is a sequel Nintendo console also a follow up to a successful era. Nintendo has never had two huge successes in a row and the sequel never outsells the first one. This could be their flop era again as it always has been multiple times in the past. It’s the most obvious and safe prediction. Switch 2 isn’t to going outsell the Switch 1 based patterns and history alone.
It’s actually riskier to predict otherwise. The chance of Switch 2 selling better the Switch 1 is very low compared to selling worse. The chance of Nintendo tanking again is very high compared to success. The success is against the odds. The tanking is more likely. It’s his job to analyze and predict the most probable outcome. And the most probable outcome is Switch 2 selling worse than 1.
Yes, comparatively speaking SD Express cards now are already much cheaper than SD cards were when Switch launched.People might forget but SD card were significantly more expensive at the start of the Switch era. They dropped very significantly in price over time.
This. It's good that it's not proprietary, but the official SD card standard. This will become cheaper over time. A good choice.People might forget but SD card were significantly more expensive at the start of the Switch era. They dropped very significantly in price over time.
Yeah, you can use new and "old" micro sd cards on the same port.Correct me if I'm wrong, but regular microSD Cards will still be compatible, right? (Though speed will obviously be limited). So it shouldn't too much of an issue, unlike memory cards for the PS Vita.
Looking forward to the specs to see what's what re: storage and stuff.
Also, fun stuff, but the Switch's card reader is featured on Wikipedia's SD Card page
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SD card - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Technologically, yes. The standard is intentionally backwards-compatible. The question is how they handle it in software. They could block running games off of slow cards and limit them to "cold storage" expansions, like USB drives on the other current-gen systems. They could also let developers mark which games demand higher speeds and have selective blocking. Or they could just allow running all games from them, but with a giant YMMV warning plastered somewhere.Correct me if I'm wrong, but regular microSD Cards will still be compatible, right? (Though speed will obviously be limited). So it shouldn't too much of an issue, unlike memory cards for the PS Vita.
Looking forward to the specs to see what's what re: storage and stuff.
Also, fun stuff, but the Switch's card reader is featured on Wikipedia's SD Card page
![]()
SD card - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Exactly! In 2020 I bought a 512GB microSD card for 110€. And now Gamestop lists 512GB microSD express cards for 85$.People might forget but SD card were significantly more expensive at the start of the Switch era. They dropped very significantly in price over time.
SD Express can also use a lot of power, upwards to 5W and 96C on the reader. As with all of these formats, running unfettered would incur a high power consumption cost. I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo implemented a speed capMVME 2230 uses a lot more power (3w average but can go up to 4w) compared to the theorical max of SD Express (1.8w), i have no idea about CF Express but a quick google search is telling me around 2.5-4w of power too.
But i also expect to SD Express to drop significantly faster in price and have much more wide appeal since it's backwards compatible with SD card slot.
Probably. I see no universe where a direct iteration of the Switch sells south of 100 million units, and my personal projections are much higher.i wish they had made it significantly smaller, somehow.
and i really wish it it had a bigger battery compartment (yes i know i said i want it smaller but both could be done). this area just feels like nintendo being cheap.
probably overthinking it.
it's weird for the past yr or whatever I thought the SW2 would just be a smash hit. just no doubt. and that could still be right. probably is.
Recent times have been the first time a bit of doubt entered my mind. I now feel theres a downside scenario of ppl just, not being too excited about more of the same.
i think the mockups are part of it. not sure what i expected but it's so similar to the last one.
i wish they had made it significantly smaller, somehow.
and i really wish it it had a bigger battery compartment (yes i know i said i want it smaller but both could be done). this area just feels like nintendo being cheap.
probably overthinking it.
One requires royalty fees, which anyone should find vehemently objectionable and yes, does mean you pay more.I mean, that describes SDe as well. Making the card isn't even the hard part for any of these, it's justifying them. And SDe is easier to justify since they can allow people to use their old cards and readers. No ufs readers exist, even if they're not hard to make, easier to just reuse what's already being made.
And SDe is easier to sell to hardware makers for that reason. Some laptops have readers, some cameras also have readers, so the market is inherently bigger for external cards
That is mostly to do with NAND spot price collapsing after 2018 more than anything else.People might forget but SD card were significantly more expensive at the start of the Switch era. They dropped very significantly in price over time.
Hardware is an underrated force. Nintendo always has the same games but their gen performance has tended to look like a yoyo, based on the hardware. Even in SW2 news we talk a lot about the performance possibilities and a perceived possible weakness lately, with the whole motherboard leak, 8nm and so on.Switch 2 will win or loose by its games, as the hardware is somehow a known quantity. The hybrid concept is still popular.
This makes no sense as the Switch 1 was deemed underpowered, especially in a time where phones were still being pushed as the next big thing regarding AAA games, some even said that they were going to push consoles away. The most we see nowadays is iphone doing A BIT, and that's about it.Hardware is an underrated force. Nintendo always has the same games but their gen performance has tended to look like a yoyo, based on the hardware. Even in SW2 news we talk a lot about the performance possibilities and a perceived possible weakness lately, with the whole motherboard leak, 8nm and so on.
I tend to think they've discovered something sustainable with switch, i'm still bullish on SW2 for sure but we are about to get a data point right?
I think there is a limit to how big the decline of Switch 2 could end up. The Switch is looking like it could hit around 160 million in lifetime sales. A huge decline of 50 % would see the Switch 2 end up with 80 million sales, that would still be around the same amount of sales as the PS3 and Xbox 360. Xbox 360 is still seen as the biggest success Microsoft has had in the console space, to put things into perspective. I would regard a 50 % decline as the worst case scenario for the Switch 2, its hard to see how an iterative successor to a succesful console would end up selling 60-70 % less than the previous console did, given that the Switch 2 won't be that much more expensive than the Switch was (Going from $300 to $400 in price).Hardware is an underrated force. Nintendo always has the same games but their gen performance has tended to look like a yoyo, based on the hardware. Even in SW2 news we talk a lot about the performance possibilities and a perceived possible weakness lately, with the whole motherboard leak, 8nm and so on.
I tend to think they've discovered something sustainable with switch, i'm still bullish on SW2 for sure but we are about to get a data point right?
Gamecube had a solid library of Nintendo content, but Nintendo IPs were simply way less popular back then than they are now.The Gamecube kinda showed it's not about the games. That had everything in the checkbox yet was not embraced by the consumer. That's when they diverged with hardware.
Switch hardware play a lot for it.This makes no sense as the Switch 1 was deemed underpowered, especially in a time where phones were still being pushed as the next big thing regarding AAA games, some even said that they were going to push consoles away. The most we see nowadays is iphone doing A BIT, and that's about it.
If anything, the fact that the Switch was a success was despite the hardware, not because of it. Same could happen with Switch 2.
Totally agree but salesguy was talking from a performance (mobo leak, 8nm, etc...) point of view not exactly from a "form factor" one.Switch hardware play a lot for it.
Same as Wii or Nintendo DS.
That's not because some did not believe on Switch in 2017 that hardware was bad.
Hybrid concept was one big factor behind Switch becoming one if not the most successful console ever.
I think Gamecube failed because the PS brand back then was just too powerful and ate up most of the console market. I mean Xbox and Gamecube only sold 40 million consoles combined, compared to more than 160 million PS2 sales.GameCube was too similar to PS2 and Xbox.
That's mostly for that reason it did not sell well.
$85 for 512gb at release when i paid $100 (on sale according to Amazon, from $125) for 400gb in 2018 sounds like a top deal IMO lol.One advantage for SD Express is that given it reuses it's interface, Nintendo could still potentially allow NSW2 to read older cheaper cards to use as cold storage or for BC only play.
Anyway, for general pricing on Express, Sandisk charges $40 for a 256GB card.
I know people have fond memories of the Game Cube but Nintendo dropped immensely the ball on games.The Gamecube kinda showed it's not about the games. That had everything in the checkbox yet was not embraced by the consumer. That's when they diverged with hardware. I remember back then on boards ppl were constantly like "oh, Zelda will make GC kick Xbox butt", then when that passed, "Oh, Mario will" and whatever all else, But each came and went with a whimper.
$85 for 512gb at release when i paid $100 (on sale according to Amazon, from $125) for 400gb in 2018 sounds like a top deal IMO lol.
And that's with the extra markup from being Nintendo branded, could technically find it for $10-$15 cheaper, if not more. Those Nintendo branded sd cards were awfully overpriced.
I don't think the objective of the Switch 2 should be to get more sales than Switch 1 (it almost assuredly won't imo), it should be about expanding the platform for both reach and revenue per user similar to PS4/5 or Xbox One/Series. That's the reason they're going with the boring safe route, and why they went with backcompat (which is a choice they don't always take, historically).Now, for the Switch 2, it’s probably not going to beat the Switch’s sales, and that’s fine. It’s like saying the PS5 is a flop because it won’t sell as much as the PS2 (Around 50m less?). It’s not. Even if it ends below the PS4, it’ll still be a success, even if we consider how weak the competition is right now for the PS5 (regarding consoles).
It's also competitive with to spec SSDs around PS5 launch, which in this upgrade guide ranged $120-$230 for 1TB.$85 for 512gb at release when i paid $100 (on sale according to Amazon, from $125) for 400gb in 2018 sounds like a top deal IMO lol.
And that's with the extra markup from being Nintendo branded, could technically find it for $10-$15 cheaper, if not more. Those Nintendo branded sd cards were awfully overpriced.