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[RUMOR] Switch 2 and its Joycons visuals have leaked, matches the custom findings. Reveal soon? [UPDATE3] Gamereactor: release month and price

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I wonder when the shipment manifesto for January will drop.

If the April launch theory is verified, that's where we should see a volume of components enough to produce million(s) of final units.
 
a 400USD console would be aproximately the same price as a 300USD console in 2017 in terms of purchasing power due to inflation. Problem is I think it's gonna be 450 at the very least.
While true, purchasing power is different this time around compared to 2017.

I've said that the console is priced accordingly due to the events and the global economy, but that doesn't mean the situation is not vastly different in other areas, say, gas.

Although, doing a projection without knowing anything about the potential games for the Switch 2 sounds a bit weird. They could do a total fail like 3ds or could have had a game that sold more than the console like the Switch.
 
Nsw2 gonna need to be 1mil launch in Japan alone and that wont still be enough. Launching it week 1 should be 4-5mil WW (ok fine 5mil launch quarter sheesh)
 
I wonder when the shipment manifesto for January will drop.

If the April launch theory is verified, that's where we should see a volume of components enough to produce million(s) of final units.
Early March, which means we'll probably have more data to base this on without relying on data customs.

We know Foxconn has significantly ramped up the amount of complete units in November/December tho.
 
The US is the one region where PS5 is outperforming PS4 launch aligned despite being more expensive and not getting any price reductions aside from temporary holiday discounts. A $399 Switch 2 will have no issue outpacing the $299 Switch during its launch year assuming all other factors aren't problematic.
 
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Apparently Gamestop's POS system leaked Switch 2 uses microSD Express cards as they're selling some branded ones (512GB and 1TB).

I hope everyone likes paying twice as much for external storage than they had to because of this choice.
 
What's the alternative?
M.2 storage in plastic caddies so all the bits of the board aren’t exposed.
CFExpress cards
UFS cards (royalty free, same bus as the internal storage)
The only advantage to SD Express is that it’s used in at least one consumer device other than this new hardware, but this hardware is the only device that will move this storage medium in any decent volume (and if they wanted something used in devices, CFExpress has microSD Express beat hands down) and pricing will likely be higher as a result of royalties and lack of ubiquity.

EDIT: microSD Express in particular is so uncommon that at launch, you’d be forgiven for thinking it’s a proprietary solution since the most common way most consumers will buy it will likely be cards officially licensed for Switch 2 by SanDisk.
 
Matt Piscatella expects the Switch 2 to sell 4,3 million units in the US during 2025:



Would that be good or bad launch year numbers for the Switch 2 in the US?

This is a sequel Nintendo console also a follow up to a successful era. Nintendo has never had two huge successes in a row and the sequel never outsells the first one. This could be their flop era again as it always has been multiple times in the past. It’s the most obvious and safe prediction. Switch 2 isn’t to going outsell the Switch 1 based patterns and history alone.

It’s actually riskier to predict otherwise. The chance of Switch 2 selling better the Switch 1 is very low compared to selling worse. The chance of Nintendo tanking again is very high compared to success. The success is against the odds. The tanking is more likely. It’s his job to analyze and predict the most probable outcome. And the most probable outcome is Switch 2 selling worse than 1.
 
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m.2 has a size issue, even if we're talking 2230s, they take up more space than a mSD card reader

CFExpress is also bigger, even when talking about the smaller type A card.

Prograde-Digital-160GB-CFExpress-Type-A-Card-and-Dual-Card-Reader-9.jpg


also WAAAAAAAY more expensive since these target photographers. making a Switch 2 card would undercut like a motherfucker and upend the entire market

a 256GB card would cost almost as much as the 1TB mSDe card

UFS cards don't exist. period. SDe cards to exist, even in small amounts for now
 
Assuming an April-ish launch, Nintendo will probably sell everything they can make by the end of the year. Which should be way more than the Switch, going by their comments. Software withstanding, enthusiasts can carry at least the first 8 months.

M.2 storage in plastic caddies so all the bits of the board aren’t exposed.
CFExpress cards
UFS cards (royalty free, same bus as the internal storage)
The only advantage to SD Express is that it’s used in at least one consumer device other than this new hardware, but this hardware is the only device that will move this storage medium in any decent volume (and if they wanted something used in devices, CFExpress has microSD Express beat hands down) and pricing will likely be higher as a result of royalties and lack of ubiquity.
Thanks, I'll check those out. Based on that Gamestop leak, these seem a bit more expensive than current SD cards (1TB for $150 vs. $130 for officially licensed cards). I'll make do with 400gb or 512gb until prices (hopefully) go down.

The unofficial cards should be cheaper, too. As long as there are more affordable sizes, I don't think this should be an impediment to the Switch 2's success. Keep in mind that it comes with 256gb of onboard memory. That's a lot of first-party and indie games. (And maybe 2 or 3 2K basketball games!)
 
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UFS cards don't exist. period. SDe cards to exist, even in small amounts for now
There's a standard, part of the standard for the most used embedded storage method across the electronics industry, and production lines that already exist could easily make them (since the main difference between embedded UFS and the card is in the packaging method). The minuscule number of existing SD Express cards being important (that, again, most customers will never see outside of the licensed and branded ones) is like suggesting a pinch of imported sand in the hand is valuable while you're standing on a sandy beach.
 
This is a sequel Nintendo console also a follow up to a successful era. Nintendo has never had two huge successes in a row and the sequel never outsells the first one. This could be their flop era again as it always has been multiple times in the past. It’s the most obvious and safe prediction. Switch 2 isn’t to going outsell the Switch 1 based patterns and history alone.
It is not an axiomatic law of the universe that sequel Nintendo consoles sell less when that has been the case because of specific reasons and specific contexts from their times. Your hypothesis also ignores the Game Boy to Game Boy advance transition. The specific reasons for Switch 2 might be in its favor this time. We don’t know yet.

1) The SNES sold less than the NES due to stiff competition in North America from Sega

2) the 3DS sold less because it was too expensive and had too few games at launch. It also had fewer games for the expanded audience.

3) the WiiU was stillborn because Nintendo learned in real time that HD development time and costs meant they couldn’t support two consoles simultaneously anymore. Many third party titles that Nintendo was relying on to drive momentum were canceled before the system launched but too late for Nintendo to fill the gap with a different title, causing software droughts, causing a failed console.

Nintendo made the Switch to consolidate their software lines so they could release about one title a month and go it alone if third parties decide not to release software for it.

The same software pipeline of approximately one Nintendo published title a month will continue for Switch 2. Nintendo may skip a month here and there for confirmed key third party titles like Monster Hunter or Call of Duty but you can count on Nintendo preventing droughts.

We also don’t know how long the Switch 2 will be on the market. The SNES got five years on the market as the flagship Nintendo home console in North America while the Gameboy Advance only got three years as the flagship handheld. Meanwhile, the Switch has had eight.

We should make projections for the Switch 2 based on the facts we know now about the Switch 2, not other consoles from decades ago that had very different factual contexts.
 
There's a standard, part of the standard for the most used embedded storage method across the electronics industry, and production lines that already exist could easily make them (since the main difference between embedded UFS and the card is in the packaging method). The minuscule number of existing SD Express cards being important (that, again, most customers will never see outside of the licensed and branded ones) is like suggesting a pinch of imported sand in the hand is valuable while you're standing on a sandy beach.
I mean, that describes SDe as well. Making the card isn't even the hard part for any of these, it's justifying them. And SDe is easier to justify since they can allow people to use their old cards and readers. No ufs readers exist, even if they're not hard to make, easier to just reuse what's already being made.

And SDe is easier to sell to hardware makers for that reason. Some laptops have readers, some cameras also have readers, so the market is inherently bigger for external cards
 
This is a sequel Nintendo console also a follow up to a successful era. Nintendo has never had two huge successes in a row and the sequel never outsells the first one. This could be their flop era again as it always has been multiple times in the past. It’s the most obvious and safe prediction. Switch 2 isn’t to going outsell the Switch 1 based patterns and history alone.

It’s actually riskier to predict otherwise. The chance of Switch 2 selling better the Switch 1 is very low compared to selling worse. The chance of Nintendo tanking again is very high compared to success. The success is against the odds. The tanking is more likely. It’s his job to analyze and predict the most probable outcome. And the most probable outcome is Switch 2 selling worse than 1.
You are telling me that the chances to outsell the best selling gaming console (soon to be) are low!? MADNESS!

History can't be the base of your argument, come on, let's be serious. If Switch 2 fails or not, it's because of everything but some weird metric based on binary results of success/failure.

That also considers the idea of failure as just the number of hardware sales, and look at it right now, Nintendo about to miss their REVISED switch forecast yet the company appreciation is much much higher, yet again, saying that without context makes it wrong, since this is still an unprecedented number of consoles sold by something this old
 
People might forget but SD card were significantly more expensive at the start of the Switch era. They dropped very significantly in price over time.
Yes, comparatively speaking SD Express cards now are already much cheaper than SD cards were when Switch launched.
 
People might forget but SD card were significantly more expensive at the start of the Switch era. They dropped very significantly in price over time.
This. It's good that it's not proprietary, but the official SD card standard. This will become cheaper over time. A good choice.

It's a new technology, so it's a bit more expensive at the moment
 
MVME 2230 uses a lot more power (3w average but can go up to 4w) compared to the theorical max of SD Express (1.8w), i have no idea about CF Express but a quick google search is telling me around 2.5-4w of power too.

But i also expect to SD Express to drop significantly faster in price and have much more wide appeal since it's backwards compatible with SD card slot.
 
Correct me if I'm wrong, but regular microSD Cards will still be compatible, right? (Though speed will obviously be limited). So it shouldn't too much of an issue, unlike memory cards for the PS Vita.

Looking forward to the specs to see what's what re: storage and stuff.

Also, fun stuff, but the Switch's card reader is featured on Wikipedia's SD Card page :D

 
Correct me if I'm wrong, but regular microSD Cards will still be compatible, right? (Though speed will obviously be limited). So it shouldn't too much of an issue, unlike memory cards for the PS Vita.

Looking forward to the specs to see what's what re: storage and stuff.

Also, fun stuff, but the Switch's card reader is featured on Wikipedia's SD Card page :D

Yeah, you can use new and "old" micro sd cards on the same port.
 
Correct me if I'm wrong, but regular microSD Cards will still be compatible, right? (Though speed will obviously be limited). So it shouldn't too much of an issue, unlike memory cards for the PS Vita.

Looking forward to the specs to see what's what re: storage and stuff.

Also, fun stuff, but the Switch's card reader is featured on Wikipedia's SD Card page :D

Technologically, yes. The standard is intentionally backwards-compatible. The question is how they handle it in software. They could block running games off of slow cards and limit them to "cold storage" expansions, like USB drives on the other current-gen systems. They could also let developers mark which games demand higher speeds and have selective blocking. Or they could just allow running all games from them, but with a giant YMMV warning plastered somewhere.
 
it's weird for the past yr or whatever I thought the SW2 would just be a smash hit. just no doubt. and that could still be right. probably is.

Recent times have been the first time a bit of doubt entered my mind. I now feel theres a downside scenario of ppl just, not being too excited about more of the same.

i think the mockups are part of it. not sure what i expected but it's so similar to the last one.

i wish they had made it significantly smaller, somehow.

and i really wish it it had a bigger battery compartment (yes i know i said i want it smaller but both could be done). this area just feels like nintendo being cheap.

probably overthinking it.
 
MVME 2230 uses a lot more power (3w average but can go up to 4w) compared to the theorical max of SD Express (1.8w), i have no idea about CF Express but a quick google search is telling me around 2.5-4w of power too.

But i also expect to SD Express to drop significantly faster in price and have much more wide appeal since it's backwards compatible with SD card slot.
SD Express can also use a lot of power, upwards to 5W and 96C on the reader. As with all of these formats, running unfettered would incur a high power consumption cost. I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo implemented a speed cap

 
i wish they had made it significantly smaller, somehow.

and i really wish it it had a bigger battery compartment (yes i know i said i want it smaller but both could be done). this area just feels like nintendo being cheap.

probably overthinking it.
Probably. I see no universe where a direct iteration of the Switch sells south of 100 million units, and my personal projections are much higher.
 
it's weird for the past yr or whatever I thought the SW2 would just be a smash hit. just no doubt. and that could still be right. probably is.

Recent times have been the first time a bit of doubt entered my mind. I now feel theres a downside scenario of ppl just, not being too excited about more of the same.

i think the mockups are part of it. not sure what i expected but it's so similar to the last one.

i wish they had made it significantly smaller, somehow.

and i really wish it it had a bigger battery compartment (yes i know i said i want it smaller but both could be done). this area just feels like nintendo being cheap.

probably overthinking it.

Switch 2 will win or loose by its games, as the hardware is somehow a known quantity. The hybrid concept is still popular.
 
I mean, that describes SDe as well. Making the card isn't even the hard part for any of these, it's justifying them. And SDe is easier to justify since they can allow people to use their old cards and readers. No ufs readers exist, even if they're not hard to make, easier to just reuse what's already being made.

And SDe is easier to sell to hardware makers for that reason. Some laptops have readers, some cameras also have readers, so the market is inherently bigger for external cards
One requires royalty fees, which anyone should find vehemently objectionable and yes, does mean you pay more.
People might forget but SD card were significantly more expensive at the start of the Switch era. They dropped very significantly in price over time.
That is mostly to do with NAND spot price collapsing after 2018 more than anything else.
 
Switch 2 will win or loose by its games, as the hardware is somehow a known quantity. The hybrid concept is still popular.
Hardware is an underrated force. Nintendo always has the same games but their gen performance has tended to look like a yoyo, based on the hardware. Even in SW2 news we talk a lot about the performance possibilities and a perceived possible weakness lately, with the whole motherboard leak, 8nm and so on.

The Gamecube kinda showed it's not about the games. That had everything in the checkbox yet was not embraced by the consumer. That's when they diverged with hardware. I remember back then on boards ppl were constantly like "oh, Zelda will make GC kick Xbox butt", then when that passed, "Oh, Mario will" and whatever all else, But each came and went with a whimper.

I tend to think they've discovered something sustainable with switch, i'm still bullish on SW2 for sure but we are about to get a data point right?
 
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Hardware is an underrated force. Nintendo always has the same games but their gen performance has tended to look like a yoyo, based on the hardware. Even in SW2 news we talk a lot about the performance possibilities and a perceived possible weakness lately, with the whole motherboard leak, 8nm and so on.

I tend to think they've discovered something sustainable with switch, i'm still bullish on SW2 for sure but we are about to get a data point right?
This makes no sense as the Switch 1 was deemed underpowered, especially in a time where phones were still being pushed as the next big thing regarding AAA games, some even said that they were going to push consoles away. The most we see nowadays is iphone doing A BIT, and that's about it.

If anything, the fact that the Switch was a success was despite the hardware (performance wise), not because of it. Same could happen with Switch 2.
 
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Hardware is an underrated force. Nintendo always has the same games but their gen performance has tended to look like a yoyo, based on the hardware. Even in SW2 news we talk a lot about the performance possibilities and a perceived possible weakness lately, with the whole motherboard leak, 8nm and so on.

I tend to think they've discovered something sustainable with switch, i'm still bullish on SW2 for sure but we are about to get a data point right?
I think there is a limit to how big the decline of Switch 2 could end up. The Switch is looking like it could hit around 160 million in lifetime sales. A huge decline of 50 % would see the Switch 2 end up with 80 million sales, that would still be around the same amount of sales as the PS3 and Xbox 360. Xbox 360 is still seen as the biggest success Microsoft has had in the console space, to put things into perspective. I would regard a 50 % decline as the worst case scenario for the Switch 2, its hard to see how an iterative successor to a succesful console would end up selling 60-70 % less than the previous console did, given that the Switch 2 won't be that much more expensive than the Switch was (Going from $300 to $400 in price).

I would compare Switch 2 to Game Boy advance, the Game boy advance was an iterative succesor to Game Boy, and in the few years it was an active system it managed to sell 80 million, much more than 50 % of the total amount of Game Boy sales.
 
The Gamecube kinda showed it's not about the games. That had everything in the checkbox yet was not embraced by the consumer. That's when they diverged with hardware.
Gamecube had a solid library of Nintendo content, but Nintendo IPs were simply way less popular back then than they are now.
 
This makes no sense as the Switch 1 was deemed underpowered, especially in a time where phones were still being pushed as the next big thing regarding AAA games, some even said that they were going to push consoles away. The most we see nowadays is iphone doing A BIT, and that's about it.

If anything, the fact that the Switch was a success was despite the hardware, not because of it. Same could happen with Switch 2.
Switch hardware play a lot for it.

Same as Wii or Nintendo DS.

That's not because some did not believe on Switch in 2017 that hardware was bad.

Hybrid concept was one big factor behind Switch becoming one if not the most succesful console ever.
 
Nintendo’s biggest fails usually aren’t about the games or even the hardware (except maybe the 3DS, but hey, that turned out fine). It’s more about other stuff:

  • GameCube: Got caught in the DVD format war and missed out on third-party support because of those mini-discs. Back then, you couldn’t just download extra game data like now, so it was a big deal.
  • Wii U: Total marketing disaster and no real vision for what it was supposed to be. Even if the marketing sucked, a clear direction could’ve helped. And let’s be real, the ads aimed at annoying kids didn’t help—nobody likes those. Compare that to the Switch, which targeted young adults right out of the gate (guy playing on a plane), and guess who copies young adults? Their little siblings.
  • N64: Not a failure for its time, but it’s clear Nintendo didn’t learn enough from it when making the GameCube.
As for handhelds? Other than the rough first year of the 3DS, they’ve been solid.

Now, for the Switch 2, it’s probably not going to beat the Switch’s sales, and that’s fine. It’s like saying the PS5 is a flop because it won’t sell as much as the PS2 (Around 50m less?). It’s not. Even if it ends below the PS4, it’ll still be a success, even if we consider how weak the competition is right now for the PS5 (regarding consoles).
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Switch hardware play a lot for it.

Same as Wii or Nintendo DS.

That's not because some did not believe on Switch in 2017 that hardware was bad.

Hybrid concept was one big factor behind Switch becoming one if not the most successful console ever.
Totally agree but salesguy was talking from a performance (mobo leak, 8nm, etc...) point of view not exactly from a "form factor" one.
 
GameCube was too similar to PS2 and Xbox.

That's mostly for that reason it did not sell well.
I think Gamecube failed because the PS brand back then was just too powerful and ate up most of the console market. I mean Xbox and Gamecube only sold 40 million consoles combined, compared to more than 160 million PS2 sales.
 
One advantage for SD Express is that given it reuses it's interface, Nintendo could still potentially allow NSW2 to read older cheaper cards to use as cold storage or for BC only play.

Anyway, for general pricing on Express, Sandisk charges $40 for a 256GB card.
$85 for 512gb at release when i paid $100 (on sale according to Amazon, from $125) for 400gb in 2018 sounds like a top deal IMO lol.

And that's with the extra markup from being Nintendo branded, could technically find it for $10-$15 cheaper, if not more. Those Nintendo branded sd cards were awfully overpriced.
 
The Gamecube kinda showed it's not about the games. That had everything in the checkbox yet was not embraced by the consumer. That's when they diverged with hardware. I remember back then on boards ppl were constantly like "oh, Zelda will make GC kick Xbox butt", then when that passed, "Oh, Mario will" and whatever all else, But each came and went with a whimper.
I know people have fond memories of the Game Cube but Nintendo dropped immensely the ball on games.

If you take the N64 best-selling games, you'll notice the issue:



Vs the Game Cube's



Rare made 3 of the best-selling N64 games and disappeared in the GC era, Star Fox got 2 very different sequels that didn't resonate, The Wind Waker had an insane backlash pre-launch.

Nintendo tried a lot of new things, but their line-up and its rollout was a big issue overall. Losing a big chunk of your hardware movers, while rushing out some of your tentpole release (Sunshine, TWW) killed any chance for the GC.

That's why games and especially the Y1 line-up are key.
 
$85 for 512gb at release when i paid $100 (on sale according to Amazon, from $125) for 400gb in 2018 sounds like a top deal IMO lol.

And that's with the extra markup from being Nintendo branded, could technically find it for $10-$15 cheaper, if not more. Those Nintendo branded sd cards were awfully overpriced.


I agree, it doesn't seem the most expensive issues the Switch 2 will present to my wallet this year
 
Now, for the Switch 2, it’s probably not going to beat the Switch’s sales, and that’s fine. It’s like saying the PS5 is a flop because it won’t sell as much as the PS2 (Around 50m less?). It’s not. Even if it ends below the PS4, it’ll still be a success, even if we consider how weak the competition is right now for the PS5 (regarding consoles).
I don't think the objective of the Switch 2 should be to get more sales than Switch 1 (it almost assuredly won't imo), it should be about expanding the platform for both reach and revenue per user similar to PS4/5 or Xbox One/Series. That's the reason they're going with the boring safe route, and why they went with backcompat (which is a choice they don't always take, historically).

What's being dashed through the leaks is the hopes of the Switch 2 being a device that's coming in to take direct shots at the PS4/5's marketshare, which is logical why it won't , because it was conceived and designed at a time where the idea of the Xbox-PS war was still being taken as a given, and Nintendo was avoiding that red ocean at the time.

Next gen is gonna be the time where we see what Nintendo does in a post-subsidized-Xbox world (if not an outright post-Xbox world). I personally think they start to get into Sony's realm with a higher-powered device (Sony is already working on getting into Nintendo's handheld turf with a handheld device of their own too).

It's gonna be very interesting imo.
 
$85 for 512gb at release when i paid $100 (on sale according to Amazon, from $125) for 400gb in 2018 sounds like a top deal IMO lol.

And that's with the extra markup from being Nintendo branded, could technically find it for $10-$15 cheaper, if not more. Those Nintendo branded sd cards were awfully overpriced.
It's also competitive with to spec SSDs around PS5 launch, which in this upgrade guide ranged $120-$230 for 1TB.

NSW2 should drive scale, lowering prices and leading to larger capacities too. As phones have started excluding expandable storage, Switch itself has become a much more important product in this sector and I'd expect NSW2 to follow suit. Handheld gaming PCs and Android devices are another growing category and as Express takes off it's likely other industries (like cameras) could take another look too.
 
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