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READ OP! - Which game will sell more in Japan: Final Fantasy 16 or Xenoblade Chronicles 3?

Which of these two games will sell more in Japan?

  • Total voters
  • Poll closed .

The Xenoblade ip has probably hit its peak, which is a 2.5 million sold success story.

MonolithSoft needs to show and prove on another type of game, and imo it needs to be an action rpg (WITH CONTROLLABLE PARTY MEMBERS) and a different setting and character design, and ui.

Like, I gotta say that the MC from Metaphor is probably the coolest looking MC I've seen in like a decade, just on drip alone.

Add some shoulders ala a a growing young man, and a bit more muscle definition and it's peak main character design imo(as it is, its drip wrapped around a twig).

Monolith needs to find someone with that kinda pizazz in character design.

Xb3>>>Xb2>Xb1 but Still a ways to go.
???? Metaphor MC is literally just Cheap Marth with an elf girl chara that looks like cheap Dress Up Darling Elf cosplay girl. There is no drip at all from that kek.

Also @Tokuiten need to said i am overboard with thinking FF16 will deliver that big FW number on JP. With the current weak sauce launch... i will say i still believe FF will beat XC3 but with digital added on later weeks as long as leg don't totally collapse.

While I do agree that Xenoblade is far from being a flagship for Nintendo, I don't think it's reasonable to discard it as not a triple A project... It's pretty much high there (arguably above those franchises you cited) when it comes to production value for Nintendo first party games

I mean, if people who finish XC3, they should noticed how after the peak fiction of Chapter 5 to 6. The whole game feels like the budget run out. Just remember the last 2 boss fight before penultimate boss and how they went with wimper like there is no more budget left. Some of the stuff that feels should have more expansion in stories also end up not much resolved.
Thats why i don't see it as AAA Project. And Takahashi himself has said that before that XC does not receive big AAA budget from Nintendo. And based on how its marketing goes. I would not doubt if XC3 whole dev and marketing budget will not reach Mario/Zelda or Pokemon marketing budget alone which is the real AAA project from Ninty
To me it's crazy that people expect a PS5 game in 2023 to hit 500K+ lifetime.. so far there is no signs that PS5 will ever reach that level of success in Japan

Elden Ring hit 1M in Japan yet vast majority of sales are not on the PS5, that tells me everything I need to know - I don't think FFXVI will hit anywhere near 1M on the PS5 anytime soon.

Exclusives won't sell well until demand World Wide slows down and prices normalize in Japan, until then a limited amount of people in Japan likely actually own a PS5, this will continue to be a problem for the foreseeable future.

Can I be excused for making my first comment during last summer? In the end scalper situation improved and now enough people own a PS5 to support a title selling 500K+

FFXVI is around 500K shipped to Japan launch - Xenoblade 3 at 520K in it's first three quarters

Xeno 3 didnt end up being a break-out hit, and FFXVI performed better than what I though possible last year

Still long term I reckon Xenoblade 3 takes this, 80K more shipped this year, 50K more next year and it will likely be catching up to where FFXVI is likely to end up - which right now I'm putting at around 700K.
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How’s this looking after FF16 launch week sales @Tokuiten?

I'll probably extend the chart eventually, so I can enter upcoming MC CY-data.

I'll probably extend the chart eventually, so I can enter upcoming MC CY-data.
Thanks! Appreciate it. I think FF16 is guaranteed to come out ahead but the fact that this question could even be raised to begin with is very interesting to me since it says so much about the state of both franchises in Japan
It was always going to be FF, insane so many thought otherwise. FF16 had a gigantic first week drop from FF7R but even a 50% drop would still put it easily above what Xenoblade games open at which is what happened. The only way this could've happened with Xenoblade 3 above FF16 is if *both* FF declined and Xenoblade grew substantially to close the huge gap between both franchises. Xenoblade though is just a series with a hard ceiling similar to Metroid and it having a super loud fanbase online seemed to confuse people into thinking it had more hidden potential with mass audiences than it actually does.
This thread is about lifetime sales not the launch week alone. I do not see how FFXVI would end up at much more than 700-800k if it's at 450-500k at best with digital now. At least on PS5 alone.
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 was estimated here to be at over 700k iirc based on Media Create yearly sales and eshop rankings so I don't see how it was that far fetched to begin with since the gap is clearly not even that big.
I can see XC3 selling over 800k with digital. I'm not sure if FFXVI can reach that if it's stays PS5 exclusive.
I still do not see FFXVI selling over 800k in Japan on PS5 alone as guaranteed at all. With PC it would definitely hsppen though, but we wouldn't ever get confirmation.

Unfortunately it doesn't look like XC3 is going to have as good legs as XC2 had, which is what I based my expectations on.
But even so I see XC3 reaching 700k over the following years.
Thanks! Appreciate it. I think FF16 is guaranteed to come out ahead but the fact that this question could even be raised to begin with is very interesting to me since it says so much about the state of both franchises in Japan
That's really the core of the comparison: Yeah, FF16 will win after all, as most expected. But it will probably end up a comparison worth being had, which is remarkable in itself. The next iteration of each franchises will really be one to watch sales-wise, although their release probably won't so closely align, unfortunately.
Well yes, with actual figures for FFXVI (including estrapolated digital qty looking also at ww numbers shared), imagining legs on ps5 in line with previous episodes and other ps5 games, with Xeno2 poasibly being crawling up to 700k ..the comparison wasnt off, at all
I think that retail sales of Xeno3 and its surely different pace if sales compared to Xeno2 could have a little bit misleading for some

At the end of the day with Xeno3 being in the 600/700k range and FF being in the 700/800k range it terms of Switch/PS5 LT sales you can look at them as comparable with no offense
FF16 will win this comparison but it’s clearly a closer battle then it should be, closeness depending on legs of course.

I do think the question was more interesting when it was originally posited with the idea of FF16 in 2022.
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