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READ OP! - Which game will sell more in Japan: Final Fantasy 16 or Xenoblade Chronicles 3?

Which of these two games will sell more in Japan?


  • Total voters
    131
  • Poll closed .
Xc3 had a very bad ratio, ps5 games have had very good ratios but Xc3 had vouchers which were over 50% digital. I think xc3 opened with roughly 120k sales fw
Famitsu Sales: Week 31, 2022 (Jul 25 - Jul 31)

01./00. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2022.07.29} (Â¥7.980) - 112.728 / NEW <40-60%>
 
I missed this thread, but it will be an interesting comparison to watch.

Xenoblade Chronicles 3 shipped (physical + digital) 520k in Japan. A big question mark will be its ongoing sales, since we probably won't get an official update again (since it won't sell 1M in any single FY again), but it could climb up to perhaps 700k(+) I feel.

That 700k would be a number that FFXVI won't hit very easily hit imo, but it of course has the potential to do that or more than that. My vote is XBC3, but I'm not at all confident in that choice 😀
 
I missed this thread, but it will be an interesting comparison to watch.

Xenoblade Chronicles 3 shipped (physical + digital) 520k in Japan. A big question mark will be its ongoing sales, since we probably won't get an official update again (since it won't sell 1M in any single FY again), but it could climb up to perhaps 700k(+) I feel.

That 700k would be a number that FFXVI won't hit very easily hit imo, but it of course has the potential to do that or more than that. My vote is XBC3, but I'm not at all confident in that choice 😀
I think the bigger issue will be getting FF16 numbers. We'll get Famitsu-numbers, obviously, but will SE/Sony tell us digital numbers in case the game doesn't overperform? Unless it somehow manages to become a 1 mio-seller quickly, I don't think we'll get an announcement of overall numbers anytime soon.
 
ALWAYS BET ON PLATINUMGAMES!
I missed this thread, but it will be an interesting comparison to watch.

Xenoblade Chronicles 3 shipped (physical + digital) 520k in Japan. A big question mark will be its ongoing sales, since we probably won't get an official update again (since it won't sell 1M in any single FY again), but it could climb up to perhaps 700k(+) I feel.

That 700k would be a number that FFXVI won't hit very easily hit imo, but it of course has the potential to do that or more than that. My vote is XBC3, but I'm not at all confident in that choice 😀
48/49 voters have changed their mind & wish nothing more than to go Back to the Future. Naughty Captain Nopon will go down with the XENO ship but to join them @Zedark at this late stage...
true-lies.gif
I think the bigger issue will be getting FF16 numbers. We'll get Famitsu-numbers, obviously, but will SE/Sony tell us digital numbers in case the game doesn't overperform? Unless it somehow manages to become a 1 mio-seller quickly, I don't think we'll get an announcement of overall numbers anytime soon.
Yes & it's a problem that Square Enix & the industry writ large have created for themselves of using sale milestones for PR & marketing purposes. When they're not providing regular updates, people begin to speculate as with Final Fantasy VII Remake & Octopath Traveller II (until it eventually saw a tweet after clearing 1 million). Already hear banging on the SE/SIE door...(edit: typos)
tumblr_n7npoou6Mu1rg0lgoo1_500.gif
Media Create Sales: CY 2022 (2022 Jan 03 - 2023 Jan 01)
025./000. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2022.07.29} (Â¥7.980) - 179.964 / NEW (112.326 <54,66%>)
First Shipment: 205,499
205,499 - 179,964 = 25,535​
Media Create Sales: CY 2022 (2022 Jan 03 - 2023 Jan 01)
068./000. [NSW] Bayonetta 3 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2022.10.28} (Â¥6.980) - 61.520 / NEW (40.386 <51,14%>)
First Shipment: 78,971
78,971 - 61,520 = 17,451​
Disproportionate impact of vouchers & eShop sales on first party titles aimed more towards price savvy core/hobbyist audiences? It'll be interesting to see how distributors & retailers work out first shipments going forward, at the very least avoid some inexplicable decisions to order more copies. For now let us revel in their retail misery with the real CY2023 battle to the sales death.
Media Create Sales: CY 2022 (2022 Jan 03 - 2023 Jan 01)
791./816. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2016.11.29} (Â¥8.800) - 1.286 / 1.025.580 (+7%) (690.471 <64,63%>)
First Shipment: 1,068,344
1,068,344 - 1,025,580 = 42,764​
Which game shall clear its first shipment...um, first? Xenoblade Chronicles 3, Bayonetta 3...or *ahem* Final Fantasy XV? I would say its a free vote, plenty to mull over, not an easy decisi--
ALWAYS BET ON PLATINUMGAMES!
 
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I forgot this thread already lol ( 1st week FF16 below than 300K and then total sale FF16 will surpass Xeno 3 with discount sale)
For me i want compare main FF vs Zelda a franchise that never touch million saller in Japan a long time.
 
Dont understand how this comparison is even one worth having. Pretty funny to see a bunch misinformation and narrative pushing in this thread guess thats a given with xenoblade conversations when certain groups are involved. Those pros for xb3 cracked me up lol good one. On topic, imagining a 520k+ intitial shipment for FF16 isnt really hard given the hardware bundles and what they (producers or sqex ) have said in interviews and thus consequently I feel like FF16 will easily sell more. Now if xb3 was indeed a "worthy sucessor" to xb2, things would have been a bit more fair on the competition part but lets leave that conversation for when xb3 manages to sell those extra 20k+ from the bomba bins.
 
I missed this thread, but it will be an interesting comparison to watch.

Xenoblade Chronicles 3 shipped (physical + digital) 520k in Japan. A big question mark will be its ongoing sales, since we probably won't get an official update again (since it won't sell 1M in any single FY again), but it could climb up to perhaps 700k(+) I feel.

That 700k would be a number that FFXVI won't hit very easily hit imo, but it of course has the potential to do that or more than that. My vote is XBC3, but I'm not at all confident in that choice 😀
Xenoblade 3 have been extremely overshipped and they still didnt sell the first shipment, legs have been terrible too, the game have been discounted for a good time too, this is not common for Nintendo games.

The digital sales at first have been good but outside of that it will end up 600k lifetime at most
 
Definitely FF16, but it will be way closer than we would think even 3 years ago.

Like even the prospect of not being sure whether or not total shipments (physical + digital) will even crack 1 million would be ridiculous.
 
Xenoblade 3 have been extremely overshipped and they still didnt sell the first shipment, legs have been terrible too, the game have been discounted for a good time too, this is not common for Nintendo games.

The digital sales at first have been good but outside of that it will end up 600k lifetime at most

Extremely overship? It sold 180k of the 225k (45k on shelves). Itll sell roughly all of that during 2023. That said discounts on the game? Dont remember that. 600k seems to be the floor lifetime as it needs 80k and we have the dlc to push.

700k seems unlikely but I think 650k it can crawl too, overship at launch I get but saying extremely is kinda over the top seeing hownother games do and how much they need to sell left from their sales/shipmentz
 
Extremely overship? It sold 180k of the 225k (45k on shelves). Itll sell roughly all of that during 2023. That said discounts on the game? Dont remember that. 600k seems to be the floor lifetime as it needs 80k and we have the dlc to push.

700k seems unlikely but I think 650k it can crawl too, overship at launch I get but saying extremely is kinda over the top seeing hownother games do and how much they need to sell left from their sales/shipmentz
The game is cheaper that Xenoblade 2 right now, there are photos of stores selling for half the price
 
The game is cheaper that Xenoblade 2 right now, there are photos of stores selling for half the price
Care to show these photos? Honestly interested in them, not trying to "gotcha" you.
 
The game is cheaper that Xenoblade 2 right now, there are photos of stores selling for half the price

Need to see them receipts, i mean if you have it I'll believe it but I dont remember seeing anything like your saying. PokeBdSp is the only Nintendo game I seen in the past year with steep price drops as that game was massively overship
 
Need to see them receipts, i mean if you have it I'll believe it but I dont remember seeing anything like your saying. PokeBdSp is the only Nintendo game I seen in the past year with steep price drops as that game was massively overship
I didnt save any image but i remember seeing photos of Xenoblade 3 and Xenoblade 2 and DE side by side and Xeno 3 being sold much cheaper that the other games.

Maybe someone else have the images saved
 
Need to see them receipts, i mean if you have it I'll believe it but I dont remember seeing anything like your saying. PokeBdSp is the only Nintendo game I seen in the past year with steep price drops as that game was massively overship
On Amazon.co.jp XC3 is ¥4100 right now, discounted from ¥4400. That is down from ¥7980 recommended launch price. XC2 is ¥6590, discounted from ¥8778.
XC3 digital code is ¥7830, discounted from ¥8700.
XCDE is ¥5560 discounted from ¥6578.
 
EBGNbnJ-900x675.jpeg

I will post this again since a couple of people asked. Just one of many proofs of xb3 being discounted. Its also being discounted for america right now (hyper max sale or something on the eshop) which is very rare for a game that isnt even a year old. Kind of amusing how the audience for xb3 was kind of the same as xb2 for japan but the rest of the world (or the west according to experts) didnt do too hot.
 
EBGNbnJ-900x675.jpeg

I will post this again since a couple of people asked. Just one of many proofs of xb3 being discounted. Its also being discounted for america right now (hyper max sale or something on the eshop) which is very rare for a game that isnt even a year old. Kind of amusing how the audience for xb3 was kind of the same as xb2 for japan but the rest of the world (or the west according to experts) didnt do too hot.

XC2 > XC3 but not in my heart (I actually like both about the same).

Need to see how it pans out after another year. Still think 600k is bottom line for lifetime sales but that's just me. FFXVI shaping up and could be 700k-800k lifetime. Let's see how it fares
 
These games endgame are so similar that i find funny to see this thread lol
 
The demo might of saved FFXVI. I was thinking 200k FW but the demo really curved the pre orders from abysmal to just about expected sales for the game
 
I voted for FFXVI last year but at this point I'm not even sure

Nah
Yes, FFXVI harsh reality is probably harsh, compared to the glory days of this brand in Japan, but still will manage to outsell XB3 more easily than someone expected when the topic has been opened imho
 
Its also being discounted for america right now (hyper max sale or something on the eshop) which is very rare for a game that isnt even a year old.
It is actually fairly normal for Nintendo to discount games digitally around a year after release. First digital eShop sale, according to DekuDeals:

Mario Odyssey (October 2018 ~12m), Xenoblade 2 (December 2018 ~12m), Xenoblade DE (June 2021 ~13m), Metroid Dread (October 2022 ~12m), Astral Chain (June 2020 ~10m), LM3 (August 2020 ~10m), Xenoblade 3 (June 2023, ~11m), ARMS (January 2018, ~7m, earliest I found), etc.

There are exceptions, like FE:3H, Kirby FL, Sushi Striker and others, but whether a game is successful or not doesn't seem to be a pattern for sales on the eShop.
 
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Nah
Yes, FFXVI harsh reality is probably harsh, compared to the glory days of this brand in Japan, but still will manage to outsell XB3 more easily than someone expected when the topic has been opened imho

I feel like this thread was made with the assumption Xenoblade 3 was going to do more than it did.

Though at least most people here voted FF16, I wonder what a FE Engage vs FF16 thread would've looked like back in December/January lol
 
It is actually fairly normal for Nintendo to discount games digitally around a year after release. First digital eShop sale, according to DekuDeals:

Mario Odyssey (October 2018 ~12m), Xenoblade 2 (December 2018 ~12m), Xenoblade DE (June 2021 ~12m), Metroid Dread (October 2022 ~12m), Astral Chain (June 2020 ~10m), LM3 (August 2020 ~10m), Xenoblade 3 (June 2023, ~11m), ARMS (January 2018, ~7m, earliest I found), etc.

There are exceptions, like FE:3H, Kirby FL, Sushi Striker and others, but whether a game is successful or not doesn't seem to be a pattern for sales on the eShop.
Ah I stand corrected on the very rare part. My general point of the post was about discounts though not so much about game being a success or not or else I would bring up xb2's sales figures and legs etc.
 
I feel like this thread was made with the assumption Xenoblade 3 was going to do more than it did.

Though at least most people here voted FF16, I wonder what a FE Engage vs FF16 thread would've looked like back in December/January lol

yes, even if its first quarter was pretty strong, its retail sales/legs have been weaker than expected
I think many thought it could have done around 700k LT sales, that actually COULD be competitive againts a PS5 esclusive FF
But with it being at 480k and with possible weak legs, it will crawl to 600k maximum probably?
 
And finally reality hits lol. While it is kinda fun having this bet on whether XC3 japan can beat FF16, i mean... all in all. This is the most expected result overall.

It is a simple fact that FF is a flagship for Square Enix which means it will get bigger budget in development, research and marketing push because the success of FF is essential for the future of SE.

Xenoblade on the other hand is not even AAA project for Nintendo. It is also not a flagship title for Nintendo as a gaming company. Those are locked for Animal Crossing, Splatoon, Pokemon, Mario and now Zelda. This means, Xenoblade will never get as big push on dev, or marketing for the games.

By that fact alone, it is the norm for FF16 to outperform XC3(And i vote for FF too lol.) Until one day, Nintendo actually consider Xenoblade to be an IP worth flagship level of investment then we will see Xenoblade as a series to be able to grow even bigger.
 
And finally reality hits lol. While it is kinda fun having this bet on whether XC3 japan can beat FF16, i mean... all in all. This is the most expected result overall.

It is a simple fact that FF is a flagship for Square Enix which means it will get bigger budget in development, research and marketing push because the success of FF is essential for the future of SE.

Xenoblade on the other hand is not even AAA project for Nintendo. It is also not a flagship title for Nintendo as a gaming company. Those are locked for Animal Crossing, Splatoon, Pokemon, Mario and now Zelda. This means, Xenoblade will never get as big push on dev, or marketing for the games.

By that fact alone, it is the norm for FF16 to outperform XC3(And i vote for FF too lol.) Until one day, Nintendo actually consider Xenoblade to be an IP worth flagship level of investment then we will see Xenoblade as a series to be able to grow even bigger.
Have Famitsu-numbers been released already? Otherwise it's super weird you'd make this posting mere hours before we get factual numbers, lol. If FF16 sold according to expectations, I don't think your posting is justified.
 
Have Famitsu-numbers been released already? Otherwise it's super weird you'd make this posting mere hours before we get factual numbers, lol. If FF16 sold according to expectations, I don't think your posting is justified.

I think at the worst scenario, XVI will have more than 500k sales FW with digital+physical combined. That means it is already 20k more than XC3 in japan.

If my prediction of it doing 500k FW physical is correct later, that means it is guaranteed.

So we will see. But atm, i believe FFXVI should still be higher based on its size and prestige.
 
I think at the worst scenario, XVI will have more than 500k sales FW with digital+physical combined. That means it is already 20k more than XC3 in japan.

If my prediction of it doing 500k FW physical is correct later, that means it is guaranteed.

So we will see. But atm, i believe FFXVI should still be higher based on its size and prestige.
But you won't know the FW sales with digital included ... (unless SE gives us that number, which is unlikely)
 
But you won't know the FW sales with digital included ... (unless SE gives us that number, which is unlikely)

I mean. If it has 400k physical FW. With the basic 30% digital will already put it over XC3 480k first quarter japan number. So i think at that point, it is already done deal.

But we will just wait for this week famitsu number. Few more hours to go.^_^
 
The next Xenoblade has potentially a lot going for it for further growth. It’s gonna be interesting.
FF on the other hand needs to show they have a clear vision for the future.
 
The next Xenoblade has potentially a lot going for it for further growth. It’s gonna be interesting.
FF on the other hand needs to show they have a clear vision for the future.
Nah.

The Xenoblade ip has probably hit its peak, which is a 2.5 million sold success story.

MonolithSoft needs to show and prove on another type of game, and imo it needs to be an action rpg (WITH CONTROLLABLE PARTY MEMBERS) and a different setting and character design, and ui.

Like, I gotta say that the MC from Metaphor is probably the coolest looking MC I've seen in like a decade, just on drip alone.

Add some shoulders ala a a growing young man, and a bit more muscle definition and it's peak main character design imo(as it is, its drip wrapped around a twig).

Monolith needs to find someone with that kinda pizazz in character design.

Xb3>>>Xb2>Xb1 but Still a ways to go.
 
Nah.

The Xenoblade ip has probably hit its peak, which is a 2.5 million sold success story.

MonolithSoft needs to show and prove on another type of game, and imo it needs to be an action rpg (WITH CONTROLLABLE PARTY MEMBERS) and a different setting and character design, and ui.

Like, I gotta say that the MC from Metaphor is probably the coolest looking MC I've seen in like a decade, just on drip alone.

Add some shoulders ala a a growing young man, and a bit more muscle definition and it's peak main character design imo(as it is, its drip wrapped around a twig).

Monolith needs to find someone with that kinda pizazz in character design.

Xb3>>>Xb2>Xb1 but Still a ways to go.
wasnt 3's "character designs" supposed to make the franchise grow? (its even listed as a 'pro' in the op!) what happened to that? given that the 2.5mill sucess story is xenoblade 2's but now its needs to be a new different game?
 
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Nah.

The Xenoblade ip has probably hit its peak, which is a 2.5 million sold success story.

MonolithSoft needs to show and prove on another type of game, and imo it needs to be an action rpg (WITH CONTROLLABLE PARTY MEMBERS) and a different setting and character design, and ui.

Like, I gotta say that the MC from Metaphor is probably the coolest looking MC I've seen in like a decade, just on drip alone.

Add some shoulders ala a a growing young man, and a bit more muscle definition and it's peak main character design imo(as it is, its drip wrapped around a twig).

Monolith needs to find someone with that kinda pizazz in character design.

Xb3>>>Xb2>Xb1 but Still a ways to go.
I think that 2 is a much better game. 3 has its moments but 2 just is better in many ways and I think the reason 3 is not growing that much is because it has weaker legs. There is no need to change things, just up 2 in every way and the series will grow.
 
Nah.

The Xenoblade ip has probably hit its peak, which is a 2.5 million sold success story.

MonolithSoft needs to show and prove on another type of game, and imo it needs to be an action rpg (WITH CONTROLLABLE PARTY MEMBERS) and a different setting and character design, and ui.

Like, I gotta say that the MC from Metaphor is probably the coolest looking MC I've seen in like a decade, just on drip alone.

Add some shoulders ala a a growing young man, and a bit more muscle definition and it's peak main character design imo(as it is, its drip wrapped around a twig).

Monolith needs to find someone with that kinda pizazz in character design.

Xb3>>>Xb2>Xb1 but Still a ways to go.
But you can take control of any character by switching with a button press.

Also what the fuck are you going on about.
 
I think the Xenoblade IP as we've seen in 1-3 is capped off on how big it can grow. There's nothing wrong with that mind you, it's a big success story for Monolith.

But if the IP wants to grow beyond that, it will need to change pace. Revisiting Xenoblade X and expanding on that idea might be the way to go about it, though not X specifically that one is more of a cult-classic of the WiiU.
 
I think the Xenoblade IP as we've seen in 1-3 is capped off on how big it can grow. There's nothing wrong with that mind you, it's a big success story for Monolith.

But if the IP wants to grow beyond that, it will need to change pace. Revisiting Xenoblade X and expanding on that idea might be the way to go about it, though not X specifically that one is more of a cult-classic of the WiiU.
Sorry if I am not reading this correctly (esl), but you think revisiting and expanding upon the title that sold the worst among all of them will make the franchise grow? Is there a specific reason why revisiting and expanding on the best selling one isnt a choice with that line of thought?
 
Sorry if I am not reading this correctly (esl), but you think revisiting and expanding upon the title that sold the worst among all of them will make the franchise grow? Is there a specific reason why revisiting and expanding on the best selling one isnt a choice with that line of thought?
I can't read your posting not as dishonest, when you entirely omit the significant fact that XBX released on the Wii U ...
 
I can't read your posting not as dishonest, when you entirely omit the significant fact that XBX released on the Wii U ...
there was no dishonesty though? yeah it released on a failed system but it doesnt make anything in my post a lie? or do you mean dishonesty in some other way? I can edit it into acknowledging that if that would make you feel better...
 
Sorry if I am not reading this correctly (esl), but you think revisiting and expanding upon the title that sold the worst among all of them will make the franchise grow? Is there a specific reason why revisiting and expanding on the best selling one isnt a choice with that line of thought?

No I specifically said not XCX because that is a cult-classic title of the WiiU and I don't see much growth potential for it outside of a slightly larger core Xenoblade audience. I was talking on taking that formula and evolving/expanding it significantly to make something new under the Xenoblade IP. Think of it more like using XCX as a blueprint but nowhere near where the hypothetical end-product would end up.

I think the combat as a whole in Xenoblade needs to be overhauled and the general bloat these games tend to have is also problematic.
 
there was no dishonesty though? yeah it released on a failed system but it doesnt make anything in my post a lie? or do you mean dishonesty in some other way? I can edit it into acknowledging that if that would make you feel better...
You're saying in your posting that revisiting XBX makes no sense because it's the worst selling Xenoblade-title. Yet you omit the reason for why that is, a reason that has nothing to do with the game's quality or critical reception. Quite the opposite, the gifs made from XBX-trailers always managed to impress people, even those who had no interest in Nintendo-games or jrpgs. Heck, it still looks impressive, even moreso than XB3 imo:

amekbvuiuv6.gif


A revisting of XBX and expanding upon its full-immersive style sounds like a recipe for success in today's gaming world imo.
 
Let's move the Xenoblade growth talk to here: https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...blade-series-expand-its-sales-potential.1761/

This thread is soon to have run its course and will probably be getting closed when Famitsu numbers go up.
Hopefull not, as the purpose of this thread is to compare sales over a longer timespan, see here:


Ofc, if FF16 FW numbers are 600k+, then it probably makes no sense to wait for future numbers, because any comparisons are meaningless. But otherwise, I'd like to keep observing these two games' sales and post updated graphs in here whenever new numbers arrive. Ofc, if you insist on locking this thread, I'm powerless to prevent that.
 
Xenoblade on the other hand is not even AAA project for Nintendo. It is also not a flagship title for Nintendo as a gaming company. Those are locked for Animal Crossing, Splatoon, Pokemon, Mario and now Zelda. This means, Xenoblade will never get as big push on dev, or marketing for the games.

While I do agree that Xenoblade is far from being a flagship for Nintendo, I don't think it's reasonable to discard it as not a triple A project... It's pretty much high there (arguably above those franchises you cited) when it comes to production value for Nintendo first party games
 
XBvs-FF16-01.png


Posting the graph here, too. The start is expectedly much stronger than XB3's, so this graph that covers the first 10 weeks is kinda obsolete already ^^ Afaik XB3's latest number is 520k with digital included. That's probably where FF16 is now already. We'll have to wait for 2023's MC CY-numbers to get a better comparison. Ultimately, FF16 will win comfortably, obviously, but the difference might not be that big.
 
It was pretty obvious that FFXVI was going to sell more even with the decline of the franchise.

People sadly overestimated XC3's potential around here (Fantastic game though, best in the series and Future Redeemed makes it reach new highs).
 
It was always going to be FF, insane so many thought otherwise. FF16 had a gigantic first week drop from FF7R but even a 50% drop would still put it easily above what Xenoblade games open at which is what happened. The only way this could've happened with Xenoblade 3 above FF16 is if *both* FF declined and Xenoblade grew substantially to close the huge gap between both franchises. Xenoblade though is just a series with a hard ceiling similar to Metroid and it having a super loud fanbase online seemed to confuse people into thinking it had more hidden potential with mass audiences than it actually does.
 
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